Heisman winner Baker Mayfield to deliver win for Oklahoma over Georgia in Rose Bowl

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I hate Georgia as much as the next Gator alum.

But that doesn’t prevent me from respecting what head coach Kirby Smart has built in Athens. He took over a sleeping giant that had recruited really well under former coach Mark Richt and has taken the recruiting up multiple notches as well as improving the product on the field.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma won the Big 12 title – again. The Sooners have now won the conference 11 times since 2000. This has translated into only one national championship, a surprise 13-2 victory over Chris Weinke’s Florida State Seminoles.

The Sooners have had other chances at the title, either making the BCS title game or the playoff four times. Oklahoma has come up short each time, losing to USC in 2004 (55-19), LSU in 2004 (21-14), Florida in 2008 (24-14), and Clemson in 2015 (37-17). That average of 34.3 points is what we’ve come to expect from Big 12 defenses.

Of course, none of that matters New Years Day when these two teams get together. Instead it will be a fascinating matchup between a team that has maximized absolutely all of its talent and another that is just scratching the surface of the giant it may become.

Offenses

Offense is where you start with Oklahoma.

Georgia is no slouch, but Oklahoma is otherworldly. Led by Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield, the Sooners put up 12.0 yards per pass attempt against FBS opponents in 2017. The gap between Oklahoma and UCF – the next best team – in yards per play was 0.8 yards. That’s the same gap between UCF and the 10th ranked team on the list: Florida Atlantic.

For all of its high flying prowess, Oklahoma has only turned the ball over 12 times. Even in its lone loss to Iowa State, the Sooners only turned the ball over once.

Georgia is an excellent offense, led by true freshman phenom Jake Fromm. However, the Bulldogs have put up 10.6 points per game less than the Sooners. Some might point to the SEC schedule being a reason for that disparity, but upon closer inspection, that doesn’t really hold water.

It is true that Georgia has played slightly more difficult defenses on average. But both teams have played four teams that are currently ranked in the AP Poll. Georgia’s offense has struggled against those opponents, while Oklahoma has barely slowed down at all from its overall average.

The Sooners put 31 points on Ohio State on the road, the best defense it has played to date (5th in yards per play). The best defense Georgia has played is Auburn (7th in yards per play), and the Bulldogs have averaged 22.5 points in those two games. It should be noted however that the offense played much better in the neutral site rematch in the SEC Championship compared to on the road at Auburn.

The reason for this disparity between Oklahoma and Georgia against top-25 teams is pretty obvious: the quarterbacks.

Jake Fromm has acquitted himself well, and not just for a true freshman. His QB rating of 168.2 is elite, and even his QB rating of 146.6 away from Athens is really good. That is normal for true freshmen, who typically play significantly worse away from home. Fromm is so good that he still plays well even though there is a drop-off, but there is a decline in his play away from home.

Baker Mayfield shows no such drop-off. As is normal as players gain experience, the gap between home and road/neutral play equalizes over time. In Mayfield’s case, there is no statistically significant difference. His completion percentage is still over 70, and his QB rating of 199.4 is on another level completely.

For reference, Tim Tebow put up a QB rating of 172.5 in his Heisman winning 2007 campaign. Tebow certainly ran much more than Mayfield does. But Mayfield has averaged 2.4 more yards per attempt while completing 4.1 percent more of his passes. His efficiency is staggering.

Fromm has an advantage in his offensive line, which consists of one 3-star and four 4-star recruits. His left tackle is a senior and his left guard is a junior, so there is plenty of experience guarding his blind side. Georgia only allowed 16 sacks all season, indicating both solid offensive line play and also that Fromm does not hold onto the ball like many freshmen do.

Mayfield has been sacked more often this season (21 times). Part of this is because he scrambles around outside of the frame of the offense much more often than Fromm does. But part of it is also his offensive line, which consists of a walk-on at center and a 3-star left tackle (Orlando Brown) and left guard (Ben Powers).

That being said, Brown is going to be drafted and so the Sooners offensive line is by no means terrible. However, you can’t ignore the fact that there is a significant talent gap between Oklahoma’s line and Georgia’s. This may not manifest itself in the game unless there is an injury. Oklahoma is much less equipped to bring in someone of equal talent at the tackle spot than Georgia is in a pinch.

Still, Baker Mayfield makes any argument in favor of Georgia moot. The Sooners clearly have the better offense of the two teams. And while Georgia has a solid offense bordering on elite, Oklahoma’s offense is off-the-charts good this year. 

Advantage: Oklahoma

Defense

The defensive side of the ball is where Georgia shines and where the Bulldogs are going to have to make its mark in this game.

Oklahoma had more than a 10-point advantage on offense and gives most of it back on this side of the ball. Georgia has given up only 13.2 points per game against FBS opponents and has been the number one pass defense in yards per attempt. That sets up a fascinating matchup as Oklahoma is number one in pass offense in the same metric.

Oklahoma has played slightly better offenses throughout the year, but has also given up considerably more points, whether it is at home, away or vs. top-25 teams.

However, this chart may bode well for the Sooners as well. When the competition got ratcheted up, the defense only gave up an additional 1.3 points compared to overall. That was not the case for Georgia, whose defense gave up 4.1 more points per game against top-25 opponents compared to overall.

This corresponds to a similar drop in points scored by Georgia against top-25 teams as well. Clearly, Georgia started to struggle – in comparison to Oklahoma – when the competition got better.

For the front seven of a defense, one way I like to measure the potential for explosive plays is to examine the ratio of tackles for loss compared to total tackles. I have found that defenses that pressure the QB consistently tend to have ratios over 10 percent.

Oklahoma has a ratio of 8.9 percent while Georgia has a ratio of 9.8 percent. This may seem like a small difference, but it is more than 0.5 extra tackles for loss per game.

Georgia runs a 3-4 look a large portion of the time, but doesn’t get pressure from its defensive line. The Bulldogs top-4 in sacks are all linebackers and accounted for 17.5 of the Bulldogs 26 sacks. Those linebackers are also either juniors or seniors and so are unlikely to be fooled by anything that Mayfield can throw at them.

And that is the hallmark of the Georgia defense. Georgia came into 2017 averaging 3.5 years of experience for its projected depth chart. Those players also averaged 3.7 stars each, indicating a high level of talent. That talent had underachieved until this year, but it appears that Smart has made a difference. Aside from Roquan Smith there aren’t any players who jump off the film at you. Everyone just seems to know where to be and what his job is, which is sometimes an issue for the Sooners.

Advantage: Georgia

The film

While watching the game on Monday, one thing you may notice is that Jake Fromm likes throwing the ball outside. In fact, everything Georgia does is predicated on getting the ball to the receivers in one-on-one coverage outside.

Against Missouri, Fromm repeatedly shredded zone coverage by looking off the safeties. On the above play you can see Fromm looking to his left as he drops back. But he had already decided he was making a back shoulder throw to receiver Riley Ridley (8).

Fromm looking over the middle for a beat held Missouri safety Thomas Wilson (8), leaving corner Demarkus Acy (17) on an island. Looking off a safety is typically not something you see from a true freshman, and it’s part of what makes Fromm special.

Georgia’s ability to attack outside is a problem for Oklahoma, as the Sooners defense sometimes gives up big plays on the outside in situations even where the correct defense has been called.

On this play, Oklahoma is clearly in a cover-2 shell. Sooners safety Steven Parker (10) even begins backpedaling as soon as the ball is snapped. But he’s nowhere near the play when the corner (who is expecting deep help) gets beat by the Oklahoma State receiver.

Going the other way, Georgia’s defense is very good. But the Bulldogs are susceptible to giving up big plays, particularly against explosive offenses.

Against Missouri, Georgia was repeatedly burned deep on the outside. On this play Georgia is beat because it is playing single-high safety coverage (cover-1) with 10 men near the line of scrimmage. This coverage screams for deep throws to the outside because the safety just doesn’t have the speed to get over to the sideline in time to help.

Smart made the adjustment in the second half, playing a lot more zone coverage. Georgia was able to get some turnovers as Missouri QB Drew Lock threw into coverage and pull away for the win.

But Oklahoma is not Missouri. The Sooners don’t just wait to see a defensive look they like and attack. Instead they use play design to dictate matchups that are favorable to the offense.

This looks like a busted coverage on first inspection, but it’s actually really creative play design from Oklahoma.

Oklahoma State tried to be a little bit tricky and got caught. The safeties lined up parallel to each other, usually an indication of having them both drop deep into coverage. Before the ball is snapped, Oklahoma motions its tight end into the backfield. At that point, the safety towards the bottom of the screen takes a step forward, giving away that he doesn’t have deep responsibilities.

After the tight end motions in, Oklahoma has a numbers advantage in the run, with seven OSU defenders in the box against eight Sooners. At the snap the tight end pulls across the formation, further making it look like a running play. All of the linebackers come up to take on their blockers, leaving the safety isolated on the running back. The back wasn’t occupied because his man is being blocked by the tight end who was motioned over prior to the snap.

The safety at the top of the screen is in no-man’s land and has nobody to cover. Oklahoma essentially manufactured one-on-one coverage in a situation where OSU has a defense designed to give deep safety help down the middle. This kind of creativity is a hallmark of the Sooners offense, and one reason that Oklahoma can thrive even with less overall talent than some other big-time programs.

The pick

Last season, I didn’t think Clemson could hang with Alabama due to talent deficiencies. That looked to be the case in the first half as Alabama running back Bo Scarborough ran wild against the Tigers. Clemson was able to right the ship because of a special performance from QB Deshawn Watson (463 total yards, 4 TD), particularly in the fourth quarter.

That’s the model for an Oklahoma win in the Rose Bowl. Georgia has more talent and just as much experience as the Sooners at nearly every position on the field except for QB. Fromm is already an elite signal caller at this point, but he’s not even close to Baker Mayfield’s league.

Add in that Mayfield has seen no drop in play on the road while Fromm has seen a significant drop and the game really starts to tilt towards Oklahoma.

I don’t expect Oklahoma to be able to move the ball up and down the field against Georgia like they do against Big 12 defenses. But I also don’t expect Georgia to completely shut down Oklahoma either. Lincoln Riley uses schemes to get his players open, and you can expect that with a month to prepare he will be able to do that a couple of times against Georgia.

Normally, I’d say that Oklahoma wins only if it is able to hit a couple of those big plays when Georgia’s defense gets confused. But Mayfield rarely – if ever – misses those opportunities. The guy is deadly when given an inch to play with and his coach gives him more than that.

Can Georgia win this game? Sure. A couple of early Oklahoma turnovers and a dominating performance on the ground by Nick Chubb and Sony Michel and we’re all talking the next day about how the Big 12 still doesn’t have any defense and was taught a lesson by the big, bad SEC up front.

But look at it the other way. If Riley can get a couple of his receivers open for big plays – which Georgia has been susceptible to against lesser opponents – and Oklahoma gets up two touchdowns, do the Bulldogs have the firepower to come back? And conversely, if Georgia gets up by 10 or 14 like Alabama did against Clemson in the championship last year, does Oklahoma have the fire power to make it all the way back?

At the end of the day, Jake Fromm is a really good – almost elite – player who still shows some signs of being a true freshman. On the other side, Baker Mayfield is a special player. He’s someone who can put a team on his back and bring the win home even when they’re not playing their best.

And that’s what I expect to see on Monday. I think the Sooners get up early and force Georgia to abandon the run and put the game on Fromm’s back. I think he’ll perform well but make a couple of mistakes that Mayfield cashes in.

Oklahoma wins, 31-21

(-2.5 Georgia, O/U 60)

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