Last week I took a look at where the Florida Gators 2019 recruiting class currently stands. Florida is objectively behind its rivals, but it is also very early in the process. So instead of looking at where the Gators are, I thought it would be helpful to take a look at what Dan Mullen and his staff needs to accomplish to consider the 2019 recruiting cycle a success.
A lot of that depends on what you consider a success. Mullen has stated that the goal is SEC Championships and National Championships. But a large portion of the fan base would settle for competing in the SEC East and not getting demolished in the SEC Championship Game.
And certainly success has time-based definitions as well. For instance, an offense that averages 30 points per game might be enough to please many in 2018 – regardless of the won/loss record – just because the offense has been so bad for so long. But come 2019, fans are going to expect wins and lots of them.
So the question becomes, what is a reasonable definition of success based on how the Gators have recruited the past four offseasons and the talent they may acquire in the coming 2019 and 2020 recruiting cycles?
What is the baseline talent level to win the SEC?
I stated on Gators Breakdown last week that Mullen needs to string together top-3 nationally ranked classes to hang with Alabama and Georgia. That’s certainly how Nick Saban has built the Alabama program and the way Kirby Smart is building Georgia, but is it the way every program has to be built?
To answer that question, I looked at the top three teams in the SEC from 2007-2017 according to the final AP Poll rankings. I chose this date range because it allows for examination of both the Urban Meyer Florida era and the Nick Saban Alabama era together.
Average rankings for the top-3 AP Poll ranked SEC teams from 2007-2017. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
To win the SEC, the average team has had an average national recruiting ranking of 4.8 and an average conference recruiting average of 2.3. Those teams have also averaged 3.1 5-star recruits and 16.1 blue chip recruits (4 and 5-stars) overall. This is obviously skewed by Alabama dominating the conference and recruiting nationally, but the average national ranking for the four teams that have placed higher than Alabama in this 11-year span is still 8.9.
Consider that the average final AP Poll ranking of the SEC Champion has been 1.2 during this span, and two things become clear. First, recruiting matters a lot. Second, winning the SEC requires having a National Championship caliber roster.
Where does Florida currently stand?
The Gators are behind when it comes to having that kind of talent. This – and not the ridiculous death threats or the strength and conditioning shenanigans – is why Jim McElwain is no longer around.
The chart below shows average national ranking, average conference ranking, average 247Sports ranking, average number of 5-star recruits and average number of 4-star recruits from 2015-2018 for Florida and its main rivals.
Florida’s recruiting versus its rivals from 2015-2018. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
The chart makes it pretty clear why Florida has struggled. The Gators have a very similar talent level to Tennessee. But Florida State, Georgia and Alabama are comfortably in front.
This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. But what is interesting is to compare the top three teams listed with the requirements of winning the SEC Championship. A 247Sports composite rating of 91.07 was what has been necessary. FSU, Georgia and Alabama all have that going into the 2018 season.
That means that Florida’s biggest in-state rival is a National Championship contender. It means that Florida’s biggest SEC East rival is a National Championship contender. And it means that if the Gators are able to get past both of those, it has the definitive National Championship contender waiting in the SEC Championship Game.
Why is 5-star talent so important?
The column in the previous chart that I think really tells the story is the average number of 5-star recruits. It’s only a couple of 5-stars difference between Florida and Florida State, right?
Well, over a four-year cycle, that difference is nine for the Seminoles versus two for the Gators. And this weekend’s NFL Draft tells us why that is important.
You may have seen Thomas Goldcamp’s tweet about the number of Gators drafted over the previous four seasons (2015-2018).
With 27 NFL Draft picks and counting in the last four years, #Gators have matched best four-year span in school history and can top it with two rounds still to come.
Had 27 in 2014-2017 drafts as well.
— Thomas Goldkamp (@ThomasGoldkamp) April 28, 2018
That list consists of eight 3-stars, 13 4-stars and seven 5-stars. The average national ranking of those players (excluding punter Johnny Townsend) is 199.
But the interesting part is to put that in context compared to the number of each type of player recruited to Florida during that time-span. The chart below shows the number of each player ranked a 3-star, 4-star or 5-star recruit from 2011-2015.
Percentage of recruits drafted sorted by star ranking. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
This isn’t a perfect comparison (for instance, Andre Debose was drafted in 2015 but recruited well before 2012), but it gives a good idea of how often each type of player is drafted. The one thing that becomes apparent right away is that 5-star recruits get drafted into the NFL at a high rate, but this chart doesn’t do this justice.
The two players who haven’t been drafted are Cece Jefferson and Martez Ivey, who both will likely be drafted next season. In fact, the Gators haven’t had a 5-star recruit who wasn’t drafted since its 2009 recruiting class, when Gary Brown was kicked off the team for a domestic violence incident.
It shouldn’t be a surprise then that Alabama had 12 players drafted this weekend. The Tide had 24 5-star recruits during that same 2011-2015 time-frame. Six of the 12 players drafted this year were 5-star recruits. Four more were 4-stars who were all within the top 265 players nationally. The average national recruiting ranking of the 11 position players (excluding punter J.K. Scott) was 121.
We can talk about development all we want, but the fact is that Saban wins because he has the best players.
2019 and beyond for Florida
Dan Mullen can’t do anything about the roster he’s been handed. And it’s not a bad roster. Based on the numbers I showed above, it is perfectly reasonable to believe that the Gators can compete for second or third in the SEC.
The problem is that the SEC has become even more top-heavy the last couple of seasons. In the past when Alabama lost a ton of talent – or had some instability at QB – there was a window for other teams to compete. That window is now occupied by Georgia.
It is true that Georgia did just lose a bunch of talent to the NFL and I’ve heard some people say that 2018 may be the year to “get” the Bulldogs. But Georgia is returning its blue-chip starting QB, have another stud waiting in the wings in Justin Fields and have replaced a talented group (11 5-stars, 50 4-stars in 2017) with even more talent (15 5-stars, 55 4-stars in 2018).
Florida can’t rely on Georgia coming back to the pack. Instead, Florida is going to have to up its talent level to compete with the Bulldogs. That means a 247Sports average ranking of at least 91.0 with an average 16 blue chip recruits.
I’ve said repeatedly that Mullen needs to achieve top-3 recruiting classes to compete with the big boys. I didn’t just pull that number out of thin air.
If we look at the 2018 recruiting cycle, we can add what each of the teams in the first, third and fifth positions achieved to the Gators 2017 and 2018 classes to see where that would put Florida going into the 2020 season.
Hypothetical recruiting rankings for Florida’s 2019 and 2020 recruiting classes. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
Mullen is certainly paying for the sins of the previous administration, but he has to bring in top-3 classes the next two years to hit those benchmarks that have historically been required to win the SEC. Even with that, he’s likely still going to be behind both Georgia and Alabama.
This is why I was disappointed when Mullen wasn’t able to bring Nicholas Petit-Frere and Nesta Silvera to Gainesville on signing day. This is why it’s already time to ask when it’s time to be concerned about the Gators recruiting, even if it’s early.
This isn’t the same SEC as when Steve Spurrier was hired, or even Ron Zook, Urban Meyer, Will Muschamp or Jim McElwain. The Saban regime has dominated like no other in SEC history. But he’s 66 and there was always hope he’d retire or give the NFL another try.
Now one of Saban’s acolytes is attempting to take his throne by mimicking the very strategy that Saban used to get to the top. But Kirby Smart is only 42 and he played at Georgia. How much would the NFL tempt you if you made $4 million and got to coach at your alma mater?
Dan Mullen has stated that his expectations are SEC and National Championships. If that’s true, then he’s not going to be able to do that without going through Alabama and Georgia.
We can talk about development all we want, but the statistics say that the only way to do that is to beat them on the recruiting trail.
Carl W.
Hard to argue with the numbers when they are so consistent.
But the interesting wild card here is the number of Gators drafted. If the mark of the talent on your team is how many players go on to the NFL, the Gators are consistently up there with the best. I don’t get the sense that our recent coaching staffs excelled at development, but if we are so far behind in terms of talent, how do we develop so many Draft-worthy players?
That said, clearly that development has not produced results on the field. At least, not on our field.
Will Miles
Driskel, Brissett, Grier and Treon are the blue chip QBs recently. All but Treon will be drafted and none of them finished his career with Florida.
Carey H Freeman
“This is why I was disappointed when Mullen wasn’t able to bring Nicholas Petit-Frere and Nesta Silvera to Gainesville on signing day. This is why it’s already time to ask when it’s time to be concerned about the Gators recruiting, even if it’s early.”
Look, we were all disappointed. But is that disappointment based in reality? And if it’s not, then do we really have a right to be “disappointed” in the current staff. NPF was never coming to UF. The kid is smart and no smart kid is going to roll the dice with a new coach at a struggling (by it’s own standards) program when two golden tickets are on the table. Dude wants to play OL in the NFL. Best path for that is probably OSU (or Bama, but I’d actually give the edge to OSU at this position). I didn’t follow Silvera as closely, but we are talking about a UM verbal who “said” he was considering other options (UF). But how many times have we been sold that brand of snake oil from a UM type? Did we really think we had a chance there (I never did)?
Maybe you are just speaking of your own reaction to losing out on those guys, but it feels like a bit of a shot at the new staff as if you’re “disappointed in their performance.” If the latter, then I think your disappointment is unrealistic and based on our staff not being able to achieve the achievable (flip a UM troll and sign a smart kid who chose the golden ticket – given his position and OSU’s history of developing NFL caliber OLs – over the dice roll of UF).
Will Miles
You can read the articles I linked to specifically to read more extensively about my thoughts. Not a shot at the staff so much as an observation of reality. You come to Florida promising championships, there are steps you have to take.
Carey H Freeman
I’m afraid, then, that we’re in a bit of a spot. Unfortunately, we have had two successive poor coaching hires, which has left Mullen in a bigger hole than Meyer (or Muschamp or Zook) when he arrived. I think he has the personality and motivation to be a good recruiter, but without some kind of a splash next year, I don’t see a top-5 finish. Now, I’ll be okay with top-10, but other’s won’t and I think those expectations, given the current QB’s on the roster, are a bit unrealistic. The game-changer, IMO, would be Burrow (if that happens. . . please let that happen!) and Van Jefferson and/or Grimes. Or lots of progress from EJ. My fear is with Trask/Franks the offense is still going to look pedestrian and that this will affect recruiting. And that it won’t necessarily be the staff’s fault, but just the hole we’ve dug for ourselves the last 8 years.
Aaron
I’m disappointed in the fact that there’s no lights out recruiter on staff. It’s also strange to me that the staff is going so far out West, when Florida and South Georgia seem to be loaded. in the article you spoke of NPF and Silvera, and there’s a constant that’s showing up early this season and that’s CLOSING. I understand that you have a better chance with a recruit the more they come to campus, but to not close on any was just strange to me. It’s going to interesting to see how this all plays out.
Carey H Freeman
Unfortunately, I think most recruits – even those who are initially impressed by Mullen & Co. – are still taking a wait-and-see approach with UF. After the last 8 years, it’s hard to blame them. As for “closing”, it’s a bit early to talk about closing. This is the get-them-to-the-salesdesk phase. The closing – signatures – come in December and February.
Gator Miami
Recruiting & developing a QB is the key for Florida. The unfortunate fact is that elite QBs are in the pipeline at both Alabama & Georgia. Dan Mullen has his guru skills cut out for him to get the Gators back on top. That’s why Mullen needs to begin to build for the future with a QB who fits his mold & has the potential to become elite. Emory Jones is that guy on the roster today. It’s time to look to the future & discard the past!
Jaquan
BS! FLA BEAT GEORGIA 3 YEARS STRAIGHT AND DEY HAD BETTER TALENT THAN US!! THE SAME TEAM THAT MADE IT TO THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP. JUS A DIFFERENT QB
ExternalTangents
I’d say the main takeaways here are that Mullen is looking at a roughly 3-year rebuild job in order to be on a level playing field (talent-wise) with Georgia, FSU, and Alabama. And that’s only if he does everything perfect in recruiting, which is far from given, especially with the tattered image he inherited for the program. More likely we’re looking at a 4-year or longer rebuild to get the talent to that point.
BUT, I think it’s worth making the clarification that that’s what’s necessary to reach equal talent to those rivals, but not necessarily what’s required to reach equal achievement to them. If Mullen is as good a coach as some think (and as we all hope), then he may be able to punch above his talent level before he gets it fully evened.
This isn’t unprecedented, either–those numbers in the first table are averages, not mandatory requirements. That means half the teams that achieved those SEC rankings had better recruiting and half of them had worse.
All of this isn’t to say that the article is wrong, by any means–I just think it’s valuable to remember that there are ranges of outcomes from any talent level, so it’s not an absolute requirement for Florida to have equal talent, it’s more about maximizing the chance of defeating those top-recruiting teams like Bama, UGA, and FSU.
Gary taft
Awesome article Will and i do agree with you about our past recruiting that being said i believe if we can find the right quarterback and with a great coaching staff we will be able to contend sooner rather than later great quarterback play makes up for alot of mistakes Go Gators chomp chomp and dilly dilly
Ken Clarke
Punctuation is your friend, Gary.