Why Joe Burrow may be the most important recruit of the Mullen era at Florida

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Former Ohio State QB Joe Burrow announced on Tuesday that he is transferring to finish his final two years of collegiate eligibility. He will be immediately eligible as a graduate transfer.

Early reports are that Florida is not interested. Some Florida fans have also indicated a reticence to bring in another graduate transfer and would rather just develop the players who are already on the roster.

I believe that view is misguided.

In 2005 when Meyer and Mullen arrived at Florida, Chris Leak was the incumbent QB. Leak had performed well in 2004 under Ron Zook and clearly was the superior choice over true freshman recruit Josh Portis to start in 2005.

We remember those Urban Meyer teams for dynamic offense, but that first year the Gators really struggled offensively against ranked teams, averaging 19.1 points per game. It’s not a coincidence that the average scoring against ranked teams increased to 26.8 points per game with the arrival of Tim Tebow, even in a backup role.

While Leak wasn’t a great fit in Meyer’s offense, he was a solidly above average signal caller. Florida doesn’t have anyone it can say that about going into 2018. The QB position has been a source of constant disappointment for years, and there is no clear incumbent.

All of which leads to Burrow.

I’ve written previously about what he has shown on film and how I believe that will translate to college. But regardless of that, fans are understandably tired of being led to believe that the answer at QB lies outside of the program. Believe me, I wish there was a clear answer on the roster right now as well.

Burrow is not a 5-star, can’t miss prospect. But I think his record indicates he has a chance to be a great. And that’s why we may look back on him as the most important recruit of the Mullen era at Florida.

Maybe that’s putting too much on someone who couldn’t win the Ohio State job. But what follows is an examination of the objections to Burrow, and I believe a substantial case that he has an opportunity to be special.

And with the level of talent in the state, special QBs win National Championships at Florida.

Another graduate transfer? Just develop who you have!

I fundamentally believe – and said so recently on the Gators Breakdown podcast – that Mullen has to play the best player at QB. If that’s a graduate transfer, then so be it.

But I also understand with Florida’s recent history how that wouldn’t be a route that Gators fans are exactly enamored with. But Burrow is a different kind of grad transfer.

The chart above shows the senior year high school statistics of Burrow compared to the previous two graduate transfer QBs to play for the Gators. It’s not close.

Burrow completed more passes, at a higher percentage, for more yards and for more yards per attempt than either Zaire or Appleby. This doesn’t even include his junior season, when he completed 70.1 percent of his 306 passes for 12.2 yards per attempt. In those two seasons Burrow threw 110 TDs to 9 INTs.

The collegiate statistics tell a similar story. Appleby traded time with eventual LSU starter Danny Etling while at Purdue, putting up numbers that are solid for a backup. Zaire played well in a bowl game against LSU and lit up a bad Texas team in 2015, but didn’t complete a high percentage of his passes. This is what we should expect based on their high school profiles.

Burrow has limited opportunities at Ohio State, but when he got in the game he again showed upper level accuracy. And more than other attributes, accuracy appears to translate to scoring points.

Both the high school and college records make it pretty clear. Burrow is on a completely different level than either Zaire or Appleby. Those guys were stop-gaps to plug a leaky dam. Ninety-nine percent of the programs in the country would start Joe Burrow.

What has Burrow proven at the collegiate level?

While it is true that Burrow mainly played in mop-up duty in 2016, to say that he hasn’t proven anything at all is a stretch. I’ve written previously about how statistics like accuracy tend to normalize quickly, and Burrow sports a 74.4% completion rate in his limited time as a Buckeye.

But perhaps just as significantly, none of Florida’s QBs have proven anything at the collegiate level.

Feleipe Franks is the only player with any level of collegiate experience at all. And just as I indicated with Burrow that early returns are predictive of future performance, the same can be said for Franks. That doesn’t bode well for him, as his performance last year does not inspire confidence.

I actually am pretty bullish on Franks to show improvement were he to earn the starting job. I was not impressed with the play calling from former offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier and I think that put Franks in some bad spots. But even an optimistic projection has Franks maxing out at a QB rating of around 135.

Kyle Trask has been behind Franks on the depth chart for two years straight. While he was injured last season, it was pretty clear that he was behind Zaire and Del Rio as well as Franks on the depth chart. I got threatened with bodily harm when I suggested before last season that Del Rio should be the starter, so I’m not sure a replication of his level of performance is going to be acceptable.

Emory Jones is a really good player, perhaps even a great one. If he runs away with the starting position in the fall, then so be it. But Mullen doesn’t like playing freshmen early. Jones also isn’t coming from an offense in high school where he was asked to throw a ton or where mechanics were emphasized. He may be ready to play right away, but anyone who says going with him is better than Burrow can’t make the argument that experience level is the reason why.

Why do we want Urban Meyer’s rejects?

Urban Meyer’s QB room contains Dwayne Haskins and Tate Martell. Haskins was the 91st ranked player nationally and has three years of eligibility left. Martell was the 56th ranked player nationally and has four years of eligibility left. Burrow was the 280th ranked player nationally and has two years of eligibility left.

There’s no shame in getting beat out by either Haskins or Martell. Last season, Burrow broke his hand in fall camp and Haskins was installed as the backup. Haskins then produced when he was on the field when J.T. Barrett got injured (QB rating of 173.1 in 57 throws) and led the Buckeyes to a win against Michigan.

Florida’s QB room contains Franks (ranked 54th nationally, 3 years eligibility), Jones (ranked 85th nationally, 4 years eligibility) and Trask (ranked 2123, 3 years eligibility). On the surface, it looks like Burrow would be walking into the exact situation he is escaping from in Columbus.

But that’s not true for two reasons. First, Franks did not perform even close to as well as Haskins did last year. Second, Jones is a true freshman, not a redshirt freshman like Martell. And don’t underestimate that Dan Mullen didn’t recruit Franks or Trask while Meyer did recruit Haskins and Martell.

I’d actually contend that raiding Meyer’s QB room is ideal for Florida. Because Mullen was Meyer’s offensive coordinator for years, they run very similar offenses. Burrow has spent the last two seasons learning that offense, meaning his transition to Florida should be quick.

And the standards and expectations that Mullen continually talks about upholding at Florida were established by Meyer. I’m not sure there’s a better cabinet to raid than his.

Doesn’t Mullen need a dual-threat QB?

The spread option that Meyer popularized – and Mullen runs – is more effective with a threat from a running QB. That’s one of the reasons why the Florida offense sputtered in 2005 with Chris Leak at the helm.

Certainly a running QB was a part of the game plan with Dak Prescott and Nick Fitzgerald. But Mullen proved that he could have an effective offense at Mississippi State when the QB was not necessarily a runner. Tyler Russell ran for negative yardage in 2012 and the Bulldogs finished 47th in yards per play. Consider that Florida finished 104th in the same statistic in 2017 and 47th would look prolific.

Besides, I’d contend that Burrow is a dual-threat QB.

Burrow ran for 642 yards his senior year in high school. Emory Jones and Kadarius Toney (who yes, I still think should get a shot) are the only players on Florida’s roster with more total yards. Franks has a better yards per carry average, but in a much smaller sample size.

You can see Burrow’s running ability here, where he not only finds the open space after being pressured, but then jukes the safety into a missed tackle.

He may not be Cam Newton or Johnny Manziel as a runner. But he’s so polished as a passer that all he really needs to do is keep the defense honest within Mullen’s scheme.

That becomes clear when you look at the film from Mississippi State last season.

This play initially looks like an easy pitch and catch to the slot receiver. But upon closer inspection, the linebacker (#17) has coverage responsibilities in the flat. This is an issue because he is focused on Nick Fitzgerald.

When we freeze the film, you can see the LSU linebacker looking into the backfield as Fitzgerald decides whether to pull the ball from the running back or not. If the linebacker drops into coverage, Fitzgerald has running room. If he doesn’t, the flat is wide open.

Last season, there were multiple opportunities for Franks to pull the ball and run on the backside. For whatever reason, McElwain and Nussmeier never decided to use that ability. I wasn’t upset at that because Franks is an unbelievable runner. I was upset because not having to respect the threat of the QB run makes the offense easier to defend.

Burrow has enough running ability to keep the defense honest.

So Is Burrow really an upgrade?

If you’ve stuck with me for this long, you likely know the answer to this question. Of course he is an upgrade.

Franks showed last season that he struggles to make quick decisions. The same issue cropped up in the spring game. I do think he’ll be better in 2018, but I don’t think he’s going to be elite.

Trask shows much quicker decision making skills. But he also doesn’t have the running ability that Burrow, or even Franks, possesses. Without that threat, it will limit what the offense can do. And for people complaining that Burrow hasn’t done anything in college, the same can be said of Trask for both college and high school.

And while I do believe Emory Jones will be a good player eventually, there are some red flags when you look at his high school statistics. In a previous write-up, I had his completion percentage in his senior year of high school at 61.8. That’s in-line with Dak Prescott’s high school completion percentage and so I was encouraged.

However, in an article on SEC Country recently, his high school coaches provided statistics indicating that Jones completed 100 of 176 passes (56.8 percent). That is right in Malik Zaire territory.

That doesn’t mean Jones will be Zaire. But it does mean that there is significant work to be done to convince me that Jones can be the solution as a true freshman.

Takeaway

Joe Burrow is a good player, with a high school profile that indicates he may be elite. Nothing he has done in his time at Ohio State makes me think otherwise.

Is his collegiate experience limited? Yes. Does he still have a lot to prove? Absolutely.

But you can say the same thing about each and every player in the Florida QB room. Mullen talks all the time about competition, and bringing in Burrow increases the level of competition.

Of course, all of this assumes Burrow wants to come to Florida. That’s the sad state of affairs for the Gators recently, as a program that used to churn out elite college QBs hasn’t had an elite player in nearly a decade.

But that ultimately is why it would floor me if the early reports that Florida isn’t going after Burrow are actually true. He has a chance to be an elite player. You don’t get a chance at one of those guys too often, especially this early in a program rebuild.

And you can bet that the fans will remind Mullen of that if the Florida QBs struggle again in 2018 while Burrow is leading a 5-0 LSU team into the Swamp in October.

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