All summer, I felt like there was an undercurrent running through many of Dan Mullen’s speeches to Gators fans. A direct quote in a recent SEC Country story attributed as a go-to line for Mullen during that speaking tour brought that undercurrent clearly to the surface:
What comes first? The team wins and the fans follow? Or the fans give the support and the team feeds off it? It doesn’t happen without the fans being there first.
The implication is clear. Mullen doesn’t believe that the fans have been pulling their weight supporting the team, and he expects that to change regardless of the product on the field.
Except that’s not the way businesses work. Successful businesses thrive when providing a quality product that is worth a customer’s time and money. And make no mistake, Gators football – despite not paying its main labor force – is in the entertainment business.
So have Gators fans supported the program with their time and money? And has the administration supported those fans by reinvesting into the football program?
Have Gators fans supported the program?
I’m so thankful for everyone who reads my work on this site, but I’m under no illusion that I’m the only place for you to get analysis. If I stop providing content that is differentiated, you will stop reading. And I strongly believe that if the quality goes down, you should go elsewhere.
And since we’re talking about quality, since 2010 Florida football has finished unranked in the AP Poll five times and 9th, 14th and 25th the other three years. There have been two losing seasons, an embarrassing credit card scandal and an even more embarrassing loss to Georgia Southern. Two coaches have been fired because they couldn’t right the ship, at least not to the standards of a program that reached national championship heights in 1996, 2006 and 2008.
It’s not a coincidence that attendance has waned since the hiring of Will Muschamp. The quality of the product has decreased considerably (11.4 wins per year from 2005-2009 to 7.5 wins per year from 2010-2017). But that attendance drop actually shows a pretty significant loyalty of the fans compared to other programs.
Typically after a good season, a team will see a bump in attendance. In the seasons after Florida’s most recent National Championships (2007 and 2009), the Gators averaged attendance of 90,388 and 90,635, respectively. In 2017, following a long drought of winning and the McElwain death threat-related firing, Florida averaged 86,715 fans, a drop of 4.1 percent from the post-championship heights.
In 2014, the year after Jameis Winston led Florida State to a National Championship, FSU averaged attendance of 82,211. The Seminoles – after finishing 2016 ranked 8th in the country – struggled to a 7-6 record and the average attendance dropped to 70,943, a drop of 13.7 percent compared to 2014. Even that highly ranked 2016 team averaged just 76,800 fans, a drop of 6.6 percent.
Indeed, in McElwain’s first season in 2015, the Gators averaged 90,065 fans per game. What this indicates is that there are maybe 3000-4000 fans who will stay away when the product is poor, but that most Gators fans live out the “all kinds of weather” mantra.
I’m not even sure attendance is the best way to measure fan engagement anyway. A better metric to measure engagement with the program is how we usually measure most other businesses: money.
From 2005-2016, Florida ranks fifth in athletic revenue in all of college sports. The Gators have never ranked below 8th nationally. Compare that to Florida State, where the ‘Noles have ranked 15th in revenue over the same time-frame and have fallen as low as 20th nationally. Since the vast majority of athletic revenue comes from football, this reflects support of the football team.
And it isn’t like the majority of Florida’s revenue has come during the national championship years.
The chart above shows total revenue by year from 2005-2016 for the top-10 revenue-producing programs. Florida is highlighted in red, and the Gators are right in the middle of the pack and increase at approximately the same rate as every other top-10 program. Not only is the revenue increasing, but it’s a linear increase. This indicates that the increase isn’t a function of success or failure, but just blind support.
It’s pretty clear. The fans have continued supporting the program financially, even if attendance is slightly down. The Gators have brought in almost $1.4 billion in revenue since 2005. That’s $344 million more than the rivals in Tallahassee.
Has the Florida program valued its fans?
I think it’s accurate to say that Gators fans have supported the program and the team. In fact, there has been tremendous loyalty to a program that – quite honestly – hasn’t done a very good job of honoring that loyalty.
While Florida does rank sixth in total spending on athletics from 2005-2016, the Gators have been pretty stingy on a percentage basis compared to its peers. The chart below shows the revenue, expenses, profit and profit to revenue ratio of the top-20 revenue-producing athletic departments from 2005-2016.
Total revenue, expenses, profit and profit to revenue ratio for the top-20 revenue-producing college football programs from 2005-2016. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
The column I want to draw your attention to is on the right hand side. The ratio of profit to revenue measures how much of the money that comes in is pocketed by the university versus being spent on athletics.
The Gators program has a profit to revenue ratio of 10.9 percent, well above the average of the top-20 revenue-producing programs (7.2%) and significantly higher than Florida State (4.0%), Tennessee (3.5%), Auburn (5.2%) and Ohio State (6.7%). While Alabama and Texas A&M have spent less of its money as a percentage than the Gators, both of those programs have state-of-the-art facilities and bring in more total dollars.
So while Florida has outpaced Florida State by $344 million on the revenue side, the Gators have only outspent the Seminoles by $236 million. For an extra $236 million over a 12-year period, shouldn’t Florida be lapping Florida State when it comes to facilities?
Yet all we hear about is how the program is behind and needs to play catch-up when it comes to football facilities. This clearly indicates that either the administration is spending inefficiently, has decided to spend significantly more money on non-football sports or has decided to pocket money that has come in from football rather than spend it on facilities upgrades.
Indeed, it appears to be the first reason. While the numbers are relatively scattered, I was able to find spending numbers specific to football for the 2013 and 2017 seasons. Florida spent $23.0 million in 2013 and $32.1 million in 2017 on football-related expenses. That’s a lot of money.
But Florida State spent $22.1 million in 2013 and $42.5 million in 2017. The Seminoles are outspending the Gators when it comes to football despite bringing in an average of $28.7 million less annually into the athletic program from 2005-2016.
There are likely very good reasons that Florida has decided to cap its football spending even with its massive revenue advantage. There are certainly Title IX considerations, major facilities upgrade initiatives have been announced and I don’t fundamentally believe it is a good idea to have massive debt service payments. There are people smarter than I setting the administration’s priorities, and I’m fine if that’s how they have decided to set them.
But with all that said, it is then disingenuous to send out the head coach to say the fans should provide more support to the team without at least pointing out that the program has been taking the fans’ money and not allocating it towards that very same team. And that’s especially true when all available evidence suggests that those fans have been supporting the team at a really high level even through the struggles.
Indeed, if we look at ticket revenue (driven primarily by football) compared to attendance, we see that the revenue has continued to increase even though there has been a drop in attendance.
There’s only one way to accomplish that particular feat: raise ticket prices. So while the program has won considerably less, scored way less and spent conservatively, it has continued to place more value on the privilege to attend the game.
That initially appears to be smart business when demand is so strong that you can raise prices even as the quality of the product goes down. But the fact that prices can be raised even with reduced quality means that the customer feels disenfranchised but has no way to combat it. Except to be more vocal.
And that is where I think the “lack of fan support” claim originates.
Let’s go back to the example of this site. Since it is free, you can agree or disagree with me and voice your opinion, but you haven’t given me anything except your time. However, if I start charging per article, you’re going to get upset if the length of what I write decreases by half.
You may still subscribe and pay my fee, but I guarantee you that my email box will fill up with people who want to tell me they liked it before when the quality was higher and it only cost them time. I hear it every day on Twitter as people compare Read and Reaction to other Gators sites out there that charge for information. The expectation is that the information behind a paywall is superior because it is more expensive.
That’s essentially what the Gators have done recently. The program has won 35 percent less often since 2010 compared to 2005-2009 and certainly has won less than in the Spurrier years. Yet, prices keep going up.
I don’t blame the fans for being vocal. I blame the administration. They are the ones who have created the conditions that have caused the frustration, not by losing on the field, but by simultaneously increasing profits while losing more ($3.9 million in 2005 compared to $20.1 million in 2016).
Takeaway
And perhaps that’s why I bristle when Mullen gets up in front of the fans and says they need to do a better job supporting the program. It offends me because all objective measures say that the fans are doing an excellent job of supporting the program compared to their peers.
It offends me because the program is one of the most profitable in the country, yet does not spend like more successful programs. As much as McElwain’s tactic of pushing for upgraded facilities in public was a bad look, after taking a closer look at the numbers, he wasn’t actually wrong. He just used a terrible approach that alienated people who could have been his allies.
It offends me because every year I plan a trip with my father and brother to catch a game. It’s quite an undertaking since everyone’s work schedules never align and I live almost 1,000 miles away from Gainesville. It costs money and vacation time, and has become even more difficult recently because we have to hope if we pick a game late in the season that it isn’t meaningless by the time we get there (see, 2013 versus FSU).
But I was there against FSU for Tim Tebow’s last game as the light bulbs were flashing throughout the entire fourth quarter. I was there against LSU in 2006 for the jump pass to Tate Casey. I was there for John Brantley’s deep throw to Andre Debose to open the game against Alabama in 2011. I was there last year for Feleipe Franks throw to Tyrie Cleveland. And I’ll be there next season too, regardless of what is said or how good the team is.
And that is something that Mullen needs to be told about the fans. We’ve been there the whole time. Attendance is down, but not nearly as much as it should be based on comparison to other programs. Fans are vocal because they are passionate but can’t stay away, even if the product is terrible. The numbers objectively say that the fans are bringing their support, every year.
In fact, the numbers say that we’ve been doing a better job of that than the administration.
Mark Holcombe
Very interesting article! Those numbers (attendance particularly) are very suspicious to me. I am not saying they are wrong – in fact, I’m sure they are officially correct. But they do not match up to what I have experienced myself. When I have gone to games the stadium has been 2/3 full at kickoff. The stadium starts clearing out in the 3rd quarter or the beginning of the fourth. I get that it’s hard to support a losing team, but it is ok (in my opinion) for Mullen to challenge us to do better.
Those types of things DO matter, to the recruits if to no one else. I wouldn’t want to come play at a school that can’t fill a stadium for an SEC game, so I understand Mullen asking fans to improve.
Georgia had a much larger spring game crowd than we did when Kirby was hired. FSU had a larger spring game crowd this year than UF did, and they charged for tickets!!!!
It was fascinating for me to hear the statistics about the administrations failure, because I did not know any of those things before reading this article. You have convinced me that they have plenty of room for improvement as well, but I am not satisfied with Gator fans right now either.
I haven’t taken Dan Mullen’s comments as placing blame on the fans, but rather as a challenge for the fans to raise their support to assist with him trying to raise the product on the field. This is the first off season I remember any buzz at all about the Gator program (since Urban) and the recruits are noticing. I have loved the way Mullen has engaged the fans, gotten a better (if still not good enough) spring game turnout, and has recruits talking about Florida. So I think he has done a great job, and I hope he keeps it up. Only wins will keep this momentum going and get the recruits signed in December and January, but for now I believe Mullen has done everything (almost) as well as he possibly could have.
Gary Golden
Why is it that you seem to have a very hard time getting on the train? Everything you’ve written of late seems to be from a little on the negative, to down right positively negative side when it comes to our new coaching staff and to all things Gator! If you’re not a fan fine! Please find something else to follow and write about. Geez!
Will Miles
Plenty of people write sunshine all the time with no facts. I try to let facts dictate what I write. My goal isn’t to be positive or negative. My goal is to be truthful. I paid good money for my degree from Florida. I pay good money to go to games. And I take my time here to be accurate and fair. If you don’t like it, that’s fine. If my points aren’t valid, you shouldn’t have to worry about them.
Lee
Will,
I sincerely appreciate the in depth research you put into your articles. I don’t want the typical “this year will be all better” hype that all these blind fans seem to crave. Your realist approach is much better researched (and backed up by numbers) than all these articles claiming things will be fixed based on blind hope. If people want to read that UF will win a title this year regardless of the fact there’s no chance we even win the SEC, let them go on Twitter.
Jeff Brown
I think Mullen needs some help with his message, but he has a point.
Actually, when a business starts out, an entrepreneur needs to generate excitement for investors and/or a bank to get behind he or she, so they can get money/support for their business. To me, this is what Mullen is doing, but he needs some PR help.
It’s your opinion to be offended, it is my opinion that you’ve got some blinders on in regard to his overall message.
Stricklin can’t fix Foley’s follies in 18 months. Mullen can’t fix the last 10 years in 6 months. He’s gotta pull all levers right now to get all facets of this team, to include fans, bought in. Now, it would certainly help with a better message and some momentum on the recruiting trail.
Just my $.02
Kenneth Bourassa
Dude Mullen just wants the swamp packed for every home game and the energy level at a maximum. What’s wrong with that? This article is ridiculous
Will Miles
Nothing. And it will be. He doesn’t need to tell the fans that. We’ve been doing that even with the struggles. This article wasn’t meant to be a shot at Mullen. It was meant to be a defense of the fans. We aren’t fair weather, and to suggest otherwise is insulting. At least to me.
Gene
Seems to me Will you are a little too sensitive. He isn’t saying the fans are bad, he just wants them to up their game. He is telling everyone to up their game, players, coaches, boosters, facilities, administration, former players, etc. Mullens message is the same…..Florida won’t accept anything less than the best. Doesn’t mean the current players, coaches, etc aren’t good or appreciated. I know you have to write about something but this is a non-story.
Nick
I think Mullen is talking about creating an electric environment in the Swamp and generating buzz around the program… I’m not sure if “support” is a specific enough term to describe what Mullen believes has been missing… Money isn’t the issue, right now… perception is… Fans have the power to help change that perception.
COmountaingator
The success of the program over the last few years is somewhat amazing considering we had home games cancelled in each of them.
The steps Mullin is taking will create sellouts again.
Kristopher
Seems like you might be a little sensitive if CDM’s call for more fan support offends you. It’s not all about attendance and merchandise. You can tell on TV and in person at the games that the atmosphere and energy around the program and during the games (including the Gator walk) just simply hasn’t been the same when Spurrier and Meyer were roaming the sidelines. Plus, CDM hasn’t been around the last 10 years. He just knows that it’s different than when he was here winning championships and is asking for the same energy and support. He wants visiting teams intimidated again by the crowd and knows recruits will want to come play for a school that has that support and “feel” at the games.
Comparing us to FSU is like comparing apples and oranges in my mind. No one has ever said Doak is one of the most intimidating and loud atmospheres / home field advantags in the country like The Swamp used to be considered.
I live in Dallas but make it to a game every year as well and have wondered if attendance of visiting team’s fans has gone up the last few years. I only make it to 1 game a year and last year the game I saw was at Jerry’s World but it sure seems like opposing fans have been more likely to buy away tickets to see their team play at Florida because they know they have a good shot at kicking our rears and aren’t afraid of paying money to see their team lose. That would be a stat I’d love to see. It would not only mean that attendance is down but that Florida fans are selling more and more of their tickets to opposing fans instead of going themselves.
I’d also like to know how much the Football program puts into the other sports programs versus the other schools you’ve listed. Florida’s overall athletic program has to be the best or at least top three in the country. Do the other schools use as much “football money” as UF does to pay for the other sports?
I just don’t see an issue with challenging the fan base to be the best in the country and to make The Swamp the best home field advantage in the country again. CDM isn’t asking us to buy more jersey and hats but to show up in numbers and with passion. He’s obviously not talking to former graduates who co-host a Gators podcast and dedicate a website to the program in their spare time. You have no reason to be offended unless you feel you aren’t supporting your school and football team the way you think they should be.
All this will happen organically if we start winning anyway. He’s just asking for a jump start and a little faith. However, I understand that we’re all a little low on faith after receiving only empty promises from the last two coaching regimes.
Will Miles
Fair points. I do think there’s one other thing to consider when talking about the atmosphere. When I attended, students could sell their tickets to anyone, not just students. Consequently, lots of people priced out of season tickets or the alumni section – but die hards – were able to go. This was particularly important for cupcake games where a non-student could pick up a ticket for $10-15. That option is now gone and I think is reflected in the enthusiasm during a game. I have no doubt that limiting student tickets to students increased revenue. But it has a cost associated with it as well, and that cost is a reduced atmosphere for games that aren’t a big deal nationally.