Recruiting revisit: Is panic or patience needed for the 2019 recruiting class?

With the commitments last week of defensive end Derick Hunter (4-star, 205th national rank) to Florida State and cornerback Derek Stingley (5-star, 15th national rank) to LSU, I tweeted out something that was apparently controversial.

Stingley to LSU. Hunter to FSU. FNL is going to have to be huge for the #Gators.

— Will Miles (@WillMilesSEC) June 20, 2018

Immediately Gator Twitter leapt into action to let me know that these players were divas who weren’t wanted by Florida or that Florida pulling a player out of his home state was near impossible and shouldn’t be held against this staff.

It was an interesting reaction. If everything is indeed going well, then why the need to shout down my opinion?

Then defensive end Nathan Pickering (4-star, 47th national rank) committed to Mississippi State. Suddenly, all excuses were gone.

Yes, it is difficult to pull a player out of his home state. But Mullen got beat out by his old school for a player with whom he should have had a much better relationship with than the new Bulldogs’ staff. And Florida had clearly emphasized the recruitment of Pickering.

All of sudden, fans were asking me whether Mullen is a terrible recruiter and starting to call Florida “3-star U” to counter the people who insist that we need to trust Mullen’s process.

What I’ve found is that the truth is somewhere in between. So this is my attempt to take a balanced look at what has transpired thus far and what we can expect going forward.

Where does Florida stand today?

Much like the look at recruiting that I took in late April, Florida is behind. That’s not an opinion. It’s a fact based on where Florida is compared to its rivals.

2019 Florida recruiting versus rivals as of June 24, 2018. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

Not only is Florida on the low end in terms of number of recruits, but the Gators also are on the low end when considering the level of talent. Only 30% of the Gators commits are in the 247Sports composite top-300 and none of them are in the top-100.

Florida isn’t just behind Alabama and Georgia. The Gators are behind Mississippi State and LSU. And this isn’t just a matter of Florida having less overall commits, as even Mississippi State (89.41) and LSU (89.37) have a higher overall talent grade than Florida (88.48).

But Florida is in better shape than its national ranking of 27th would suggest. Ten teams currently ranked in front have lower talent grades than Florida, some significantly so. But that still puts the Gators at 17th which, quite honestly, is where they deserve to be based on the current list of commits.

This wouldn’t be a huge deal if it were just Ohio State, Michigan and Clemson who were reeling in the big-time recruits. But these are teams that Florida is going to have to face this year – and in the case of Florida State, Georgia and LSU – every year. The Gators risk falling further behind if things don’t turn around quickly.

Timing Matters

But it’s only June. That’s the refrain that fans defending Mullen use. It’s also the refrain that frustrates those on the other side who just want to see Florida get better while watching other programs reel in big-time recruits.

Usually, I hate that kind of excuse. But in this case, the Mullen defenders are mostly correct.

Timing of verbal commitments for 5-star recruits from 2016-2018. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

If we look at the commitment dates of 5-star candidates (87 players) from 2016-2018, what we see is that only about 40 percent of them commit prior to October 1 and the vast majority commit between December 1 and National Signing Day. The message is clear: there is still time.

However, this year is a little bit different now that teams have had a year to adjust to the early signing period. Alabama – in particular – didn’t feel that it had approached the process correctly last year and vowed to focus on getting commitments from elite candidates earlier. The Tide – and much of the nation – has followed that pattern.

Four and five star commits verbally committed versus uncommitted as of June 24, 2018. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

As of June 24, almost 56 percent of the 5-star candidates have committed. The number isn’t much lower for 4-star candidates, as over half (50.2%) have committed as well. Overall, 183 of the top 361 players have already committed.

That means that we are halfway through the recruiting process. Again, I think that suggests that there is still time to salvage a class that is currently struggling. But it also indicates that programs exhibiting slow starts need to start closing elite candidates quickly.

It will be fascinating to see whether this trend of accelerated commitment rates continues before the early signing day or whether things slow down until after the December 1 timeframe. I suspect that teams that wait until December are going to struggle.

Critical Timing – August 1

How you look at things currently depends a lot on your perspective. A glass-half-full person would be hopeful that there are still half of the blue chip recruits uncommitted. A glass-half-empty person would be concerned that Florida isn’t keeping pace halfway through the cycle.

And this is where I think the Mullen critics have some ammunition – or at least could shortly.

Historical recruiting of former Florida coaches compared to Dan Mullen (*as of June 24, 2018). (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

If we look at recruiting through August 1 for Jim McElwain, Will Muschamp and Urban Meyer’s second and third recruiting classes, a clear trend emerges. The percentage of top-300 players compared to total recruits is remarkably similar prior to August 1 and after National Signing Day is over.

The implication here is critical. Were Mullen to not pick up any more commitments before August 1 (or pick up another 3-star or two), he would have a profile that looks just like Jim McElwain’s 2016 recruiting class.

That class was ranked 12th nationally, with 7 top-300 players and zero 5-stars. Compare that to Zook, Muschamp and Meyer who had 15, 18 and 11 top-300 players in their second classes ranked 1st, 2nd and 3rd nationally.

My recollection was that McElwain filled out the 2016 class late with 3-star candidates but the numbers above show that I was wrong. He was filling the class with 3-star players right from the jump, which is very similar to where Mullen stands now.

What this should do is point out the flaw in the “Mullen has to show it on the field and the recruits will come” crowd.

Florida went 9-3 in 2005 in Urban Meyer’s first year, and the percentage of elite players after August actually went down. Admittedly Meyer only had three commits by August, but those players were all elite.

Will Muschamp was able to sell the program before he ever coached a game, reeling in 12 commitments, 8 of whom were elite by August. The Gators then struggled to a 7-6 record in Muschamp’s first season, but were able to bring in the exact same percentage of elite players during/after the season as before.

Jim McElwain struggled early, with only four of his 12 commits qualifying as elite prior to the 2015 season. You could actually make an argument that McElwain had the most on-field success in his first year (10-4, SEC Championship Game). What you can’t argue is that McElwain struggled after August as well to bring in elite recruits, as only 7 of his 25 commits in the 2016 class were ranked in the top-300.

This doesn’t just hold for the Gators. Kirby Smart’s bump class in 2017 had 10 commits by August 1, 7 of them top-300 players (70%). The Bulldogs finished the 2017 class with 17 top-300 players out of 26 commits (65%). It didn’t matter that Georgia struggled to an 8-5 record – two games worse than under Mark Richt the year prior – when it came to recruiting.

But perhaps you’d argue that it’s unfair to compare Mullen to Smart, who has proven to be an elite recruiter. Well, what about Penn State’s James Franklin? Franklin came from a school (Vanderbilt) with little football tradition and went 24-15 and finished ranked his last two seasons.

Franklin’s bump class at Penn State ranked 14th nationally with 8 of 15 commits prior to August ranking in the top-300. It is true that Penn State struggled in 2014 (7-6) and that the percentage of top-300 recruits decreased to 44 percent in the final class. But that number increases to 52 percent if you widen the definition of elite and include two recruits who ranked 306th and 316th.

The take-home is striking: by August 1 it is clear whether a coach is going to bring home a good overall recruiting class or not.

Scenarios for the Gators 2019 recruiting class

Of course, a “good” recruiting class is a relative term. Franklin’s 14th ranked class from 2015 would be a disappointment for Florida under Mullen in 2019.

It’s also only the end of June, not August 1. By then, Florida will have conducted its Friday Night Lights camp I referenced in my tweet above. If elite recruits commit to the Gators during or after that event, it certainly signals more success to come later in the recruiting cycle.

If we look at the average number of top-300 signings relative to total signings for the top-10 ranked teams from 2016-2018, we can predict the top-300 percent needed to occupy a certain spot in the rankings. It is a linear relationship that can be described by the equation X = (Y – 0.7474)/-0.027.

And it shows exactly what Florida needs to do prior to August 1 to accomplish various national rankings. As it stands now, should Florida not receive any commitments prior to August 1, we would expect a finish in the 16-17 national ranking range. Each top-300 player who commits (without a commensurate player outside of the top-300) increases that projected ranking.

Predicted recruiting finish based on top-300 ratio as Florida adds elite recruits. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

This chart shows that to sneak into a top-10 national ranking, the Gators are going to need to get somewhere between 3 and 4 top-300 commits prior to August 1. That is certainly doable. But it is also doubling the number they currently have.

Conversely, the chart says that there is virtually no way that Florida is going to get to a top-3 class. Just to get to top-7 using this method suggests six top-300 commits are needed by August 1, tripling the number currently on board.

This is confirmed by looking at the 247Sports class calculator. Should Florida hit on every single one of its top-15 targets – all ranked in the top 126 nationally (Trey Sanders, Chris Steele, John Emery, Evan Neal, Kyle Ford, Mycah Pittman, Kaiir Elam, Tyrique Stevenson, Johan Tauanu’u, Khris Bogle, Mark-Antony Richards, Elijah Higgins, John Dunmore, Brendan Gant and Keon Zipperer) – the Gators would finish with a point total of 307.1 (h/t SmurphyGator from the 247Sports message board for the list of targets).

On average over the last three years, that would have ranked the Gators third nationally. But that’s not even a remotely likely situation.

A best-case realistic scenario would be to fill out the class with eight of those top-15 players, then fill out the class with 4-star players ranked right around 300. That would result in a point total of 284.0, good for a class ranking of seventh.

But let’s say Mullen keeps up his 30 percent hit rate on elite recruits and so only gets his top five targets and is forced to fill out the class with players ranked from 350-370. That results in a point total of 271.6, which would put the Gators at ninth overall, which is the absolute ceiling at that top-300 ratio.

Takeaway

How you view Florida’s recruiting situation for 2019 probably depends on your view of what a “good” class is. Traditional bump classes for Florida coaches have improved seven spots from their transition classes. Mullen’s first class ranked 14th, meaning that 7th should be the minimum expectation.

I can’t tell you what to find acceptable. I know that I believe that top-3 classes are going to be necessary to compete for championships on a regular basis. But I also suspect that the offense is going to be much better under Mullen, and know that quarterback play can cover gaps in talent should he be able to identify an elite signal caller.

Fans will point to Dabo Swinney at Clemson as a model of non-elite recruiting leading to championships. But that misses a couple of things. First, the ACC when Swinney took over had watered-down competition. The Bobby Bowden, Frank Beamer and Randy Shannon eras were winding down at FSU, Virginia Tech and Miami.

Also, while his overall recruiting may not have been spectacular, I would argue that Swinney hit on the two most important recruits of his career. Tajh Boyd (5-star, 31st nationally) and Deshaun Watson (4-star, 42nd nationally) were elite QBs. I think it’s reasonable to believe that they covered up some depth issues that even an average QB wouldn’t have been able to overcome.

Fans will also point to Mullen needing to show something on the field coming off of a 4-7 season. That argument just doesn’t hold water when looking at the actual numbers. Mullen’s recruiting success or failure will have little to do with how the Gators look on the field and much more to do with how he sells his vision to potential recruits.

Thus far, Mullen is coming up short. That means there is going to be plenty of noise – on Twitter, on message boards and from boosters – over the next month as recruits make their decisions. Hopefully some of those recruits will choose Florida and Mullen is able to salvage a top-10 class. But we don’t have to wait until National Signing Day to know where this class is headed.

We’ll know August 1.

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