Why Dan Mullen's process for selecting a QB is critical for 2018

This week I was asked the following question by Twitter user Dylan Brooks (@dylanbrooks887).

How many wins would it take in the first season with Coach Mullen at the helm will it take before people believe he was the right hire? @Jason_Higdon @GatorDave_SEC @realbsikes @WillMilesSEC

— Dylan Brooks (@dylanbrooks887) July 13, 2018

It’s a difficult question to answer. It’s difficult to answer because I’m not sure the number of wins and losses actually matter. This is true because I don’t believe it will impact recruiting all that much. I also don’t believe that you judge a coach or staff on wins and losses alone (or recruiting wins and losses for that matter).

Instead, you should judge them on the processes that they use.

I think that’s why many Gators fans have expressed concern about recruiting. It’s not the misses that are the concern, but the process of pursuing so many out of state blue chip candidates that seems questionable. It doesn’t help Mullen’s cause that there just aren’t any other things to evaluate during the offseason.

But nobody coming in the 2019 class is going to affect any results this season. Once the season starts, there will be a new set of processes that we will be able to evaluate concerning the on-field product.

And that leads us to the place where I think all Gators fans should judge Dan Mullen in his first year: quarterback.

Florida’s QB Struggles

There were a lot of things that frustrated me about Jim McElwain last season. But if I had to put my finger on one thing, it would be this.

Luke Del Rio was clearly the best QB on the roster.

That’s partly a recruiting issue. It’s partly a development issue. But it’s mostly an evaluation issue.

Feleipe Franks wasn’t ready to start against Michigan, yet was thrown directly into the fire. Next up was Malik Zaire – who if reports following the season are to be believed – wasn’t able to pick up the playbook quick enough for the coaches’ liking. The offense finally looked functional when Del Rio came in against Kentucky just in time to preserve that win streak and in the first half against Vanderbilt.

But here’s the thing. If you and I could see that Del Rio was the best option for the offense (it wasn’t close), then what were McElwain and Nussmeier looking at? And if Zaire didn’t know the playbook well enough, why was he the first choice off the bench against Michigan. It was clearly a mistake in evaluation.

Mullen will have had all spring and fall to evaluate all three candidates. If none of them has differentiated himself, that is a problem. But if one has – and is named the outright starter for the first game of the season – that QB needs to have a long leash.

I don’t say that because of concerns about harming self-confidence or continuity by switching QBs back and forth. I say it because changing QBs constantly is a poor process.

I say this fully aware of the history of Steve Spurrier yanking QBs in and out of games so clearly that can work. But those were QBs with very similar skill sets who had all been recruited by Spurrier. And perhaps in hindsight, yanking out Danny Wuerffel after a couple of INTs was not the wisest of tactics.

Mullen has had plenty of time to decide who is the best. If he chooses one and then changes his mind quickly, that’s when I’ll start getting concerned.

How do QBs of top-5 teams perform?

The silver lining in all of the recruiting talk is that it does appear that elite QB play can overcome lesser recruiting in other areas. If we examine the top-5 teams in the AP Poll from 2008-2017, what we find is there are plenty of 5-star prospects but that there are plenty of lower-ranked prospects as well who succeed at the position and lead their teams to elite seasons.

A few weeks back, I introduced a metric called Yards Above Replacement (YAR) and Total Yards Above Replacement (TYAR) as a way of measuring QB play. The concept is simple: a YAR of zero is exactly average, Heisman Trophy winners are typically between 1.5-2.5 while a very good QB typically ranges from 0.5-1.5. This allows us to examine QBs and understand how they played and whether that is tied to recruiting rankings.

Of the 50 QBs examined, 21 (42%) of them were not ranked in the top-300 nationally. Eight (16%) of them were not ranked in the top-800 nationally. Of the four individual seasons above 2.5 YAR, three of them came from lower-tier recruits: Baker Mayfield (1029th nationally) twice, Marcus Mariota (491st nationally) and Cam Newton (26th nationally).

If we look at 2017, the AP top-5 at the end of the season consisted of Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Clemson and Ohio State. The Tide, Bulldogs and Buckeyes are all elite recruiting schools, but Clemson and Oklahoma are one step down. From 2014-2017, Clemson and Oklahoma averaged a national recruiting ranking of 13 and 14.

This happens just about every year. In 2016, Clemson, Washington and Oklahoma were in the top-5. 2015 featured Clemson, Stanford and Oklahoma. 2014 featured Oregon, TCU and Michigan State. 2013 had Michigan State, South Carolina and Missouri. So clearly, there is hope for teams who don’t recruit like Alabama.

What do all of these schools almost always have in common? Elite QB play.

Oklahoma played for the national championship in 2008, losing to Florida and Tim Tebow in the Orange Bowl. Sam Bradford posted a YAR of 2.0 and was the key to Oklahoma’s success. In 2009, Bradford got hurt, and Oklahoma went through a few years of average QB play under Landry Jones, Trevor Knight and Blake Bell. Then they stumbled upon Baker Mayfield.

Oklahoma QB play from 2008-2017. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

Mayfield put up two of the best seasons we’ve seen in college football in 2016 and 2017 and a borderline elite season in 2015. It shouldn’t be a surprise that Oklahoma was able to again compete to get into the playoff consistently during that time, especially with Texas – the recruiting behemoth in the conference – struggling.

2017 was a bit of an outlier for Clemson, as new starter Kelly Bryant put up a slightly negative YAR (-0.14). Basically, Bryant was a game manager. That worked for the Tigers though because they had a truly elite defense (4.1 yards per play allowed, ranked 2nd). It is the only year that Clemson has won 11 games or more with a QB who didn’t exceed a YAR of 0.54.

In those seasons, Clemson has a record of 62-8 and an average QB YAR of 0.82. In the other seasons, the Tigers have a record of 39-22 with an average QB YAR of -0.55.

Every once in a while an elite defense (Clemson in 2017 or Michigan State in 2013) can carry a QB who is just a “game manager.” But it appears that most of the time, teams that are not on an elite recruiting level have to find a QB much better than that.

The average stat line for a QB of a top-5 team is a 65.2 completion percentage, 8.6 yards per pass, 4.0 yards per rush and a YAR of 1.12.

Mullen the QB whisperer

This bodes well for Mullen, as he has a reputation for being able to develop QBs into elite players. Mullen has definitely coached excellent QBs. Dak Prescott at Mississippi State, Tim Tebow at Florida, Alex Smith at Utah and Josh Harris at Bowling Green. But only twice has Mullen inherited a QB that he had to fit into his system: Tyson Lee and Chris Leak.

QB performance the year prior to and the first year under Dan Mullen. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

When looking at things that way, the results are a mixed bag. Lee got better by a considerable margin, but even with that improvement was still below average. And Chris Leak really struggled in his first year under Mullen, putting up a negative YAR and decreasing by a full yard.

So basically, if we look at QBs Mullen inherited, the dual-threat QB improved and the pro-style QB regressed.

This is important to consider because Feleipe Franks and Kyle Trask are both pro-style QBs. Franks had a YAR of -1.41 last year, which was worst in the SEC and tied him for 58th out of 65 Power-5 QBs. So there is a lot of room to improve. Were he to improve his stats in the same fashion as Lee from 2008 to 2009, his stat line would look like the following:

Numbers for Feleipe Franks if he improves in 2018 similarly to Tyson Lee’s improvement from 2008 to 2009. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

It’s going to take more than that for Florida to improve significantly on the field. Only four players who led top-25 teams had negative YAR: Clemson’s Kelly Bryant (4th, -0.14 YAR), Michigan State’s Brian Lewerke (15th, -0.22 YAR), Northwestern’s Clayton Thorson (17th, -1.14 YAR) and NC State’s Ryan Finley (23rd, -0.04 YAR).

In Northwestern’s case, the Wildcats point differential suggests an 8.8 win season instead of its 10-3 record aided by a 4-0 record in one-score games. If Thorson plays like that again, Northwestern is going to struggle in 2018.

Even if we assume that Franks shows the exact same percentage increases from year one to year two that Dak Prescott saw under Mullen, his YAR would still be at -0.52. That increase would have still only placed Franks 10th in the SEC last season, which just isn’t going to be good enough.

Takeaway

This is why I think that the QB for 2018 doesn’t necessarily have to be the one who can produce the most wins in 2018. I would be impressed if Mullen takes a longer view and puts the player in whom he thinks will play the best in 2019 and 2020.

I’ve often stated that you play the best player to gain credibility in the locker room, but I think this examination at QB play has changed my mind. There are two factors that play into this decision for me.

First, if Florida continues to struggle in recruiting compared to Georgia, Alabama and Florida State, the Gators are going to have to find an elite QB. The Clemson or Oklahoma models are informative here. Landry Jones – while a serviceable QB – isn’t going to get you into the playoff. There might be some 10-3 seasons and occasionally worse, but you likely aren’t going to go 12-1.

Second, if you believe that the ceiling for Franks or Trask is a YAR of essentially average, then you shouldn’t spend a ton of time developing them as starters. Game managers aren’t likely to get the job done, at least not to the level that Florida fans expect.

This is why I believe that Mullen should start Emory Jones. His ability to run will give him an advantage on Franks or Trask that adds value while learning the passing game. Unless Franks or Trask can vastly outplay him through the air, it just doesn’t make sense to have him sitting on the bench.

Jones averaged 6.9 yards per rush his senior year in high school on 129 carries. He clearly fits within what Mullen wants to do on offense and has the running skills to make up for any shortcomings he may have in the passing game.

And as shown above, Mullen’s history indicates it isn’t incredibly likely that he takes someone who has struggled as much as Franks and turns him into an elite player. Franks may improve. He may improve a lot. But because of Florida’s recruiting struggles and a defense that is unlikely to be elite, that improvement would have to be significantly more than just a game manager.