Examining the Gators 2018 schedule and the path to more than 8 wins

The Gators opener for the 2018 season is only 41 days away. Thus, the focus shifts away from recruiting and towards the games themselves.

The SEC Media has made its predictions and to the surprise of nobody, Georgia has been selected as the overwhelming favorite in the East. Florida was picked third, behind the Bulldogs and South Carolina but in front of Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee and Vanderbilt.

That seems fair for a team that had high expectations heading into 2017 but had just about everything go wrong from August to December. With depth from the credit card suspensions returning – as well as the switch from Jim McElwain and Doug Nussmeier to Dan Mullen leading the offense – expectations are high around Gainesville.

Without any new film to study, we’re left trying to predict what will happen. But there are some things we can take from last season, as well as looking at returning talent to try and guide those predictions.

And there are some positive signs for the Gators.

Regression teams in the SEC are in the East

I wasn’t surprised to see Georgia picked to be first in the East. I was very susprised to see that South Carolina was picked second.

The Gamecocks went 5-3 in SEC play last season and 9-4 overall. But some of that is smoke and mirrors. South Carolina outscored its opponents 315-269, which reflects a team that should have won 7.5 games, not 9. That record was buoyed because of a 6-1 record in one-score games.

This doesn’t mean the Gamecocks will be terrible, but typically one-score games are 50/50 propositions. With the exact same set of circumstances as last season but a shift to 4-3 in those games and South Carolina goes 7-6.

The Gamecocks talent profile doesn’t indicate that it will see an improved record either. Overall, South Carolina’s projected starters (by Phil Steele’s preview magazine) have a 247 rating of 88.29. This ranks fourth in the SEC East, but is much closer to the bottom two (Vanderbilt (85.64) and Missouri (86.62)) than to the teams in front (Georgia (94.68), Tennessee (92.67) and Florida (91.32).

Additionally, QB Jake Bentley regressed from 2016 to 2017 (7.5 to 7.1 yards per attempt and 140.0 to 130.7 QB Rating) as the volume of his chances increased. That’s part of the reason former offensive coordinator Kurt Roper is gone, but doesn’t bode well for significant offensive improvement in 2018.

The other team ripe for regression in the SEC East is Kentucky. The Wildcats went 7-6 in 2017 but had a point differential (332-367) that indicates it should have won only 5.9 games. That’s pretty amazing considering that it took a miracle for Florida to win in Lexington last season.

The Wildcats did go 4-3 in one-score games and so the score differential was driven by two things. First, they got blown out a lot (lost to Louisville, Georgia and Mississippi State a combined 131-37). Second, it didn’t blow out any of its cupcakes, beating Southern Miss 24-17, Eastern Kentucky 27-16 and Eastern Michigan 24-20. This is the profile of a 5-7 disappointment rather than a 7-6 season to build on.

The talent profile of Kentucky’s projected starters doesn’t indicate any massive improvement this season. The average 247Sports rating of the starting 22 is 87.07, fifth in the East. Add to that no definitive answer at QB and it’s hard to imagine the losing streak to Florida stopping at 31.

Talent Profiles of Florida Opponents

One reason Florida fans are optimistic about the 2018 season is the relatively light schedule. If you examine the opponent individually, this becomes pretty apparent. But the schedule also has another quirk that favors the Gators.

Despite substandard (for Florida) recruiting, Florida’s starters still have plenty of talent compared to their opponents. If we assume Charleston Southern and Idaho are automatic wins, that leaves Kentucky, Colorado State, Tennessee, Mississippi State, LSU, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina and Florida State.

Only four of those team’s starters (Tennessee, LSU, Georgia and Florida State) average more talent than Florida according to 247Sports recruiting rankings. This holds true for defensive line talent as well, which I believe correlates most closely to an elite defense. The bad news is the Gators are badly outclassed by those four. The good news is again they are better than all other opponents.

Talent ratings of Florida’s starters compared to its opponents in 2018. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

The interesting thing to note is that three of those games (Tennessee, Georgia and Florida State) are away from the Swamp, meaning that Florida will have the talent advantage in every home game except against LSU.

At Mississippi State, Dan Mullen did a really good job against teams with equal or lesser talent than the Bulldogs. However, he went 2-16 against Alabama and LSU. By chance, those two teams rotate home and road games with Mississippi State in the same year.

Perhaps not surprisingly, Mullen won 57 percent of his games in seasons when Alabama and LSU were home games and 63 percent of his games in seasons when they were road games. What this indicates is that it was highly likely that Mullen was going to lose to those two regardless, but if he did it on the road it allowed his team more chances against lesser opponents at home.

The Gators will get the same opportunity in 2018.

Takeaway

Of course, things could look vastly different come November. These numbers only look at the talent profiles of the starters, and Florida has a lot more depth than some teams.

One key injury – particularly to a QB – could change the entire complexion of East. And talent ratings – as Tennessee showed last year – don’t mean very much if the coach is horrible.

But it should comfort fans concerned about Florida’s current recruiting woes that this examination on talent alone puts Florida at 8-4 if the Gators take care of business and only lose to teams that are more talented on paper. And there can be a case made for uncertainty for each of those more talented teams as well.

Georgia profiles as the best team Florida will play this year. But the wrist injury to QB Jake Fromm opens up some uncertainty that wasn’t there before.

Florida State is dealing with its own QB battle between Deondre Francois and James Blackman along with the transition to new head coach Willie Taggart.

LSU is relying on graduate transfer QB Joe Burrow to step right in and make the offense hum. I happen to believe he’ll do just that, but it doesn’t mean that the Tigers have zero uncertainty.

The Vols also have a highly-rated graduate transfer QB coming in (Keller Chryst, 51st national ranking). But there is just as much uncertainty around that position in Knoxville as in Gainesville. Chryst did not play particularly well at Stanford (-0.68 career YAR) and had a career completion percentage of 54.1 percent in high school.

If Dan Mullen is as good of an in-game coach as he’s been billed to be, Florida is 8-4 worst case. If any of these more talented opponents runs into an injury or can’t live up to its talent because of sub-standard QB play, the Gators can be better.

It’s unlikely that will be enough to win the East. But it would be a heck of a start for Mullen.