2018 Florida Football Position Preview: The Running Backs

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With SEC Media Days behind us and the summer nearing an end, we can finally see the light of football season at the end of the tunnel.

The 2017 version of the Gators left a sour taste in the mouths of both Florida fans and players. It resulted in the firing of Jim McElwain, the hiring of Dan Mullen, the implementation of what appears to be an effective offseason workout program for the first time in at least three seasons, one of the top ranked transition recruiting classes in program history, one player dismissed from the program, a couple of players getting in some trouble with air soft guns, and a frustrating start to the 2019 recruiting class.

As the saying goes, there is never a dull moment in Gator football.

With all of the ups and downs of the offseason, there is finally football on the horizon: fall camp began on August 3rd. In this series we will examine each position group, how it stacks up against the rest of the conference, some historical perspective of how each group stacks up against previous Gators and previous Dan Mullen teams, and a short projection of reasonable expectations from each position group for this year’s team.

First on the docket: the running backs.

Who’s in the room?

Perhaps the deepest position group on the entire team, the running back group should expect to have a fierce competition for carries behind featured back Jordan Scarlett.

Scarlett – who returns from a season long suspension one year ago as a part of the credit card scandal – was a 4-star recruit, rated the 12th best running back and 117th ranked player nationally coming out of St. Thomas Aquinas in 2015 and he stands at 5’11” 206 pounds.

Scarlett returns to the team as a redshirt junior with 1070 career rushing yards and 7 touchdowns on 213 total carries over his two seasons of action, which is good for an average of 5.0 yards per carry for his career. Scarlett was hitting his stride late in his sophomore campaign, rushing for 108 yards against LSU in the Gators SEC East clinching victory in Baton Rouge and 94 yards in the Outback Bowl victory over Iowa.  Scarlett returns to the lineup in 2018 as the favorite to be the feature back.

Battling it out for carries behind Jordan Scarlett is a trio of running backs that include junior Lamical Perine, sophomore Malik Davis, and true freshman Dameon Pierce.

Perine came out of Theodore High School as a 3-star prospect, the 28th ranked running back and the 493rd overall player nationally. Perine has 852 yards rushing and 7 touchdowns on 189 carries over his two seasons in Gainesville, which amounts to 4.5 yards per carry over his career.

The breakout player in 2017 after Jordan Scarlett’s injury prior to his knee injury in Florida’s 42-7 loss to Georgia was then-true freshman running back Malik Davis. Davis has stated that he is clear for the start of fall camp, and he adds a different element to the running back room from the power that you will get from Scarlett and Perine.

Coming out of Tampa Jesuit, Davis was a 3-star, rated the 26th best running back and 436rd overall player in the country. Davis far exceeded his recruiting ranking coming out of high school, as he gained 526 yards on 79 carries (6.7 yards per carry) and 2 touchdowns in his 6 games.

Prior to his injury, Davis showed vision, elusiveness, and patience that no other player in Florida’s running back room showed. His health prevented him from competing in Mullen’s first spring practices at Florida, but he was regularly in the huddle listening to cadences and visualizing his job during offensive installation periods, despite not being able to participate due to his injury.

Assuming Davis is healthy, Florida has an excellent change of pace back to Scarlett, and somebody that could potentially see the field alongside Scarlett to provide two threats in the backfield along with whoever lines up at quarterback for the Gators.

A potential breakout addition to the Gators running back group is 5’10” 207 pound true freshman Dameon Pierce. Pierce – a 4-star recruit – joins the Gators this season as the 8th best running back and 201st overall player nationally. At Bainbridge High School, Pierce broke Herschel Walker’s rushing records in the state of Georgia, and chose Florida over offers from Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, and several other big time programs.

Pierce received rave reviews from coaches in the spring, and he showed off a violent, downhill style of running that confirmed what was evident from his high school tape. Even in a crowded backfield, Pierce has an opportunity to earn carries in fall camp that could translate to a very successful true freshman season.

Also in the battle for carries is 6’0” 201 pound sophomore Adarius Lemons from Clearwater, Florida. Lemons – who was ranked at one point as the best running back in the state of Florida – was forced to leave high school and saw his ranking fall to the 25th rated running back and 415th overall player nationally.

Lemons ran for 136 yards on 19 carries a season ago, not including an explosive touchdown run that was called back due to penalty against UAB. Lemons flashed his explosiveness late in the season, found himself out of the spring game with an ankle injury, and has seemed to have difficulty understanding the offense under the previous coaching staff.

Assuming Lemons can stay healthy and get a better understanding of Mullen’s offense than he had of Nussmeier’s, he could have a chance to fight for some playing time this season.

Finally, rounding out the crop of running backs is true freshman Iverson Clement. Clement is from New Jersey, and was rated a 4-star prospect and the 20th best athlete and 329th overall player in the 2018 class. He stands at 5’11” and 193 pounds, and is an upright runner with long strides. He showed in high school and spring practice that he runs hard, but in 2018 he should be expected to be a redshirt candidate or a special team player.

How does this group stack up?

The average player recruiting ranking of the six running backs on Florida’s roster is 332nd overall, and 15th among running backs. This ranking translates to a low-end 4-star player average according to the 247 composite rankings.

Looking at Florida’s opponents in the SEC East, LSU, and FSU, since the class of 2015, Florida’s stable of running backs is talented, but certainly not the stacked room some would have you believe.

Georgia has signed five running backs with an average of 221st overall in the class, but that number is significantly inflated by Georgia’s signing of Brian Herrien, who was the 860th overall player in the nation in the class of 2016. If it weren’t for Herrien, Georgia’s running backs would have an average rating of 61st overall in the nation.

Since the class of 2015, FSU has signed seven running backs with an average player ranking of 289th overall, but that number is also inflated by their signing of Deonte Sheffield, who was ranked 1185th overall in the class of 2016.  Removing Sheffield, FSU has signed running backs with an overall player ranking coming out of high school of 139th in the country.

Since the class of 2015, LSU has signed a running back with an average overall player ranking of 219th in the country. One of those players was 45th overall player Derrius Guice, who has already left LSU.

But Guice’s departure doesn’t change the main point. Three of Florida’s biggest rivals have a significant talent advantage – on paper – over Florida at one of the deepest and best position groups on Florida’s roster. This is a huge issue that Dan Mullen must overcome, and it is why it is so important for Mullen to turn the momentum in the 2019 class and sign elite recruiting classes, beginning this season.

Among other teams in the SEC East, the average national ranking of running backs signed since 2015 indicates where Florida has an advantage. Kentucky has signed an average of the 820th overall player, Missouri has signed the 1196th overall player (not including their 2 JUCO transfers), South Carolina has signed on average the 542nd overall player, Vanderbilt has signed on average the 1180th overall player, and Tennessee has signed the 898th overall player. However, the Volunteers number is skewed higher because they took a few players in the 1500-2300 overall player range according to the 247 composite.

Simply put, outside of Georgia, Florida is ahead of the entire SEC East in terms of talent at the running back position. The problem is that this is the area where everyone points towards the Florida offense and assumes the Gators will have a clear advantage in most of its games.

That is mostly true in the SEC East, but won’t be true against Georgia, LSU, FSU and –if they get to that point – Alabama. Dan Mullen’s record indicates he can do it, but it is going to be a  somewhat uphill climb at the Gators strongest position group.

So how does Mullen’s talent on this year’s team compare to his talent while at Mississippi State and his first time at Florida? In Mullen’s entire tenure at Mississippi State, he signed running backs that had an average overall ranking of 527th. Mullen had 1000-plus yard running backs (excluding quarterbacks) in 2009, 2011, 2012, 2014, and 2017.

This year, Mullen will inherit a group of running backs that are better, according to recruiting ranking, than any group of running backs he had at any point over his 9 years at Mississippi State. Mullen also competed against opposing defenses in an SEC West that overall, were much better than what he will face in the SEC East.

This bodes well for the prospects of Florida having a running back that will exceed 1000 yards.  Mullen has also given two running backs 75-plus carries in 8 of his 9 seasons at Mississippi State, and 3 running backs 75-plus carries in his last two seasons at Mississippi State. Based on this, Florida fans should expect to see more than one running back featured, especially with the concern about having a viable quarterback, and possibly having 3 or 4 running backs with 50-plus carries on the season.

This usage pattern was also evident during Mullen’s time as offensive coordinator at Florida, where he had running backs with an average ranking of 164th nationally. In 2005, both Deshawn Wynn and Kestahn Moore had 50-plus carries. In 2008, Chris Rainey, Jeff Demps and Emmanuel Moody all exceeded 50 carries, in addition to wide receiver Percy Harvin and QB Tim Tebow accounting for more than 70.

Mullen has consistently shown a willingness to give opportunities to several different running backs in his offense. That should motivate Perine, Davis, Pierce, and potentially Lemons to fight for those carries, both through their effort running the ball, but also in understanding and executing pass protection schemes.

What should we expect in 2018?

Regardless of any warts at the position, Mullen will be working with the most talent he has had since his last stint with the Gators.

In 2017, Mullen rode running backs Aeris Williams (260th nationally in 2014) for 1107 yards on 236 carries and Kylin Hill (210th nationally in 2017) for 393 yards on 78 carries.  Williams and Hill were excellent for Mullen and – not coincidentally – were two of the most talented running backs Mullen ever had at Mississippi State.

Moreover, Williams and Hill combined for 1500 yards combined with 984 yards of rushing from QB Nick Fitzgerald. Mullen will have running backs of similar talent in his inaugural Florida backfield, and it’s reasonable to expect similar production from the Florida gaps to Mississippi State last year. That probably means that the remaining yardage will need to be obtained by a third running back, or the Florida quarterback (on the ground or through the air) if Florida’s offense is to be as productive as the Bulldogs’ was last year.

Florida’s running backs are a position of strength, both from a talent profile and from a production standpoint.

All things considered, expecting Florida’s starter – assumed to be Jordan Scarlett – to rush for 1100 yards and 8 touchdowns on around 225 carries in the 2018 season seems in-line with his career averages and completely reasonable.

Behind Scarlett, reasonable expectations for the trio of Davis, Perine, and Pierce should be to combine for 180 carries, 950 yards and 8 touchdowns based on how much Mullen likely will have to lean on the running game.

In 2017, Dan Mullen’s offense ran the ball 623 total times, and 386 times with running backs. I think Florida’s offense will run the ball roughly the same amount, but with the load shifting from the QB to the running backs.

Based on the numbers I projected above, that means 405 coming from the top-4 running backs, leaving 195 carries coming from the QBs (for reference, Nick Fitzgerald and Keytaon Thompson ran a combined 237 times last season). That would leave around 60 total carries for Adarius Lemons, Iverson Clement and the group of wide receivers.

600 is likely a key number for Mullen’s offense. His Mississippi State offenses only exceeded that number twice. In 2010, the Bulldogs went 9-4 with Chris Relf at QB and 668 team rushing attempts. In 2011 – with Relf still at QB – the team rushing attempts dropped to 518 and Mississippi State struggled to a 7-6 record.

In 2016, even with Nick Fitzgerald at the helm, the Bulldogs had only 516 team rushing attempts and went 6-7. That increased to 623 team rushing attempts in 2017 and the record improved to 8-4.

In neither situation did the yards per attempt increase, so it wasn’t just a matter of increased rushing efficiency. Rather, it looks like Mississippi State’s defense was good enough to keep the Bulldogs in the games those seasons, and Mullen was able to protect his QB by running the ball more.

That’s likely going to need to be Mullen’s strategy for the Gators offense in 2018. The good news is, he’s got a really strong stable of running backs to help him pull it off.