On Saturday, the Dan Mullen era at Florida begins.
Still, that doesn’t mean we can’t learn things about this Florida team. Certainly, it’s the start of a new era of Florida football and with that comes both excitement and trepidation. How will Feleipe Franks play now that he has been named the starter? What will Emory Jones’ role in the offense be? How will the defense look under new defensive coordinator Todd Grantham?
So what are the five things that Florida fans should be paying attention to Saturday night?
#1: Tempo
If the McElwain/Nussmeier offenses have seemed incredibly slow the past three seasons, it’s because they were. The Gators ranked 105th in the country last season in time per offensive play at 27.2 seconds. The national average was 25.1.
Now, the pace of an offense – either fast or slow – does not guarantee offensive success. Syracuse had the fastest pace in 2017 (20.3 seconds per play) and was 85th in scoring against FBS opponents (25.4 points per game). Oklahoma ranked 94th in pace (26.4 seconds per play) last season, and the Sooners certainly had no trouble scoring points.
Mississippi State ranked 89th in pace in 2017 (26.2 seconds per play), so it’s not as if Dan Mullen’s offense was that much faster than Florida’s. But if we look closer at the pace of his offense during his time at Mississippi State, I think it will give us an idea of how much confidence he truly has in Feleipe Franks.
Pace of the offense at Mississippi State under Dan Mullen. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
The average of Mullen’s offenses from 2009-2017 at Mississippi State have basically averaged the national pace in 2017. What is interesting to me though is when the pace changed.
In 2010, Chris Relf played really well at QB (YAR = 0.67). You have to believe that Mullen was comfortable with Relf and his ability to run the offense in 2011. That season showed a significant uptick in pace, but Relf regressed considerably and the offense struggled (YAR = -0.63).
In 2013, Dak Prescott took over at QB and showed some potential. In 2014 and 2015, Mullen played a significantly higher pace than normal. Likely this had to do with his comfort level with Prescott.
That pace number grew in 2016 under Nick Fitzgerald and then went back to his normal pace in 2017. It appears to me that Mullen’s play calling – and how quickly the offense moves – is dictated by his comfort level with the QB.
One of the things most Florida fans are interested in is whether Franks’ struggles were solely due to McElwain and if Mullen can develop him into an elite player. I think we may be able to tell in the first game what Mullen’s comfort level is with Franks. If the Gators are playing with a tempo where plays are rolling off every 22-24 seconds, it indicates that Mullen has a high opinion of Franks.
If the Gators are taking 26-28 seconds per offensive snap, then it’s more an indication that Franks is a placeholder for when Emory Jones is ready.
#2: Linebackers in coverage
Last season, the Gators really struggled in coverage when running backs and tight ends were matched on linebackers.
Nowhere was that more apparent than this play, where Tennessee had an easy touchdown that would have won the game on a pass to running back John Kelly.
On the play, Kelly is one-on-one against Gators linebacker Christian Garcia. This isn’t a fair matchup for Garcia and it shouldn’t be a surprise that Kelly comes open. The fact that he dropped the ball has more to do with the official than it does with Florida’s defense.
The Gators strategy the entire game was to have linebackers on the field on running downs and play nickel on passing downs. This was apparent early on when they had linebacker Jeremiah Moon staying on the field on second down if a run was likely and sprinting off if a pass was likely.
One of the reasons Kelly was able to get loose in the second half was that Tennessee decided to start throwing to him on earlier downs and exploit the matchups against Florida’s linebackers. You can bet that opponents are going to test those linebackers early and often.
Charleston Southern isn’t a perfect opponent to watch this too closely. They typically play with four wide receivers and so nickel defenses are going to be the norm for Florida. And we can’t pretend that the Buccaneers running backs are talented enough to tell us whether the Florida linebackers will excel.
But at some point, Vosean Joseph or Rayshad Jackson is going to get caught in coverage on a running back. And if they struggle in that matchup, it is a harbinger of an area that more skilled teams will be able to exploit the Florida defense.
#3: Trust on both sides of the ball
One of the more frustrating things last season was that it didn’t seem like Florida’s players trusted each other. That was apparent very early on against Michigan.
On this play, Michigan linebacker Devin Gardner is coming on a blitz and running a stunt to the offensive right side. Michigan’s defensive end beats Florida’s right guard to the inside. Gators running back Mark Thompson hesitates – unsure of whether to help on the defensive end or to block his assignment (Gardner).
Had Thompson blocked his assignment, perhaps Franks could have stepped up into the pocket to avoid the defensive end. Instead, the result is that neither the defensive end nor Gardner got blocked, Franks got flushed from the pocket and Florida was forced to punt.
While the offense got the brunt of the ire of the fan base, the defense was certainly not immune to the same phenomenon. This was particularly true in the secondary.
What you notice on this play is that Florida linebacker Vosean Joseph hesitates and takes one step forward before flaring out to guard the running back in the flat. This forces corner Marco Wilson to come off of Kentucky wide receiver Blake Bone and leaves Bone isolated on safety Nick Washington.
That was clearly a matchup that Kentucky liked, and rightfully so. Wildcats’ QB Stephen Johnson delivered the ball to Bone for the touchdown.
Lots of people would look at Washington and say he got beat. But this play started with a chain reaction of Joseph not getting out quickly enough to take the running back and Wilson not trusting that he would recover to get there.
Will Franks trust his offensive line to block for him or will he see ghosts? Will the secondary trust the linebackers in coverage or will they cheat, allowing receivers to get a step on them? Will Mullen trust his offensive line and running backs in pass protection if he wants to take a deep shot?
This game won’t give a perfect answer to this question. But I do think we’ll be able to see glimpses of whether this team trusts each other. That will be critical as the Gators moving forward into the teeth of the early season road schedule.
#4: Which QB runs the ball?
In my season preview, I detailed how Dan Mullen used Chris Relf (76 carries, 500 yards) in 2009 versus how he was used in 2008 under Sylvester Croom (7 carries, -19 yards). That 2008 team had 87 carries by its QB for 6 total yards. Not only did Mullen up the number of carries by QBs in 2009 (150) but he also saw a significant increase in production, not just from Relf but also starter Tyson Lee (675 yards for both combined).
The result was that the cumulative offensive yards above replacement (oYAR) for Mississippi State QBs increased from -25.6 under Croom to -1.86 under Mullen. It is completely true that Mullen didn’t work magic to make Lee a significantly better passer. What he did do was use the QB running game to keep the offense moving.
My oYAR model predicts that Mississippi State should have scored 12.6 points per game in 2008 and 26.1 in 2009. The actual numbers were 15.2 in 2008 and 25.6 in 2009.
Florida’s oYAR in 2017 was -14.0, correlating to a predicted score of 19.1 points per game (22.1 actual, but that reduces to 20.1 if you subtract the three pick-sixes by Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and C.J. Henderson).
If Franks has the same number of rushing and passing attempts next season and the same rushing yardage, according to oYAR he would need to average 8.63 yards per attempt for Florida to score 30 points per game.
That would be an increase of 2.38 yards per attempt from 2017. In all of FBS from 2016 to 2017, only three teams saw an increase that large and none of them were from Power-5 conferences. Only 14 percent of teams saw an increase of more than one yard per attempt.
That means that for Mullen to get Florida’s offense humming, he’s going to have to do it with the QB running the ball. That may mean that Franks himself is going to have to take a more active role in the offense. If Franks can replicate what Tyson Lee did in 2009 (74 carries, 175 yards), he’d only need to average 8.2 yards per attempt for Florida to average 30 points.
But if Kadarius Toney can add exactly what he did last season (14 carries, 120 yards), that number shrinks to 7.89. And if Emory Jones can add even more (say 50 carries for 300 yards), that number goes down to 7.34 yards per attempt.
That is an attainable number for Franks. They are also attainable numbers for Toney and Jones. Thus, it is going to be fascinating to see how Mullen deploys his running QBs in the first game against Charleston Southern. It’s really a preview to how he feels like he can get maximum value out of the position.
#5: Penalties
Florida was a really undisciplined team last season. That manifested itself in the credit card scandal and various other off-field incidents. But it also manifested itself on the field in the form of penalties.
From 2015-2017, the average number of penalties per game in FBS is 6.04. McElwain’s teams never were close to that number, with the lowest penalties per game in 2015 of 6.5 and the highest in 2017 at a whopping 7.4.
But this isn’t just a McElwain problem. It’s been a Florida problem. The chart below shows both Mississippi State and Florida’s penalties per game since 2009.
Penalties per game at Mississippi State under Dan Mullen compared to penalties per game at Florida. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
The Gators have averaged 7.4 penalties over that span while Mississippi State has averaged just 5.1. The highest a Dan Mullen-coached team has ever averaged is 6.1 in 2017 and in no other season have the Bulldogs been above 5.3.
Remember also from earlier that Florida played at a really slow pace compared to Mississippi State last season. So in less total opportunities, Florida was penalized more.
Just from an aesthetic point of view, it would be fantastic to feel like a false start isn’t inevitable on every drive. But from an effectiveness standpoint, starting drives at first-and-15 after a false start or first-and-25 after a personal foul are just a wasted drive.
When your team struggles offensively – or has less talent than the opposition – you have to find an edge anywhere you can find it. Mullen clearly emphasized eliminating penalties while at Mississippi State.
When you consider that from 2015-2017 the Bulldogs played 20 teams with more talent than they had compared to 19 teams with less (according to the 247Sports overall roster composite rankings), it’s really impressive that they were able to stay below the national average for penalties during that span.
Hopefully Mullen will be able to bring the same discipline to Gainesville. We’ll get to see Saturday night.
Prediction
It’s pretty obvious that I’m going to pick Florida here. Charleston Southern doesn’t have anywhere close to the same level of talent and got beat 49-0 by Mississippi State last season.
This game is more about the Gators than it is about the Buccaneers. Florida was a team that lacked confidence and trust last season. The confidence part was especially true for Feleipe Franks.
But there shouldn’t be any shortage of confidence Saturday in the Swamp. There currently isn’t a betting line on the game because the mismatch is so severe. Franks is likely going to get an opportunity to chuck the ball around the field quite a bit. Nick Fitzgerald threw for 239 yards and 8.2 yards per attempt against the Buccaneers last season, his highest average of the season.
Fitzgerald only averaged 6.2 yards per attempt last season, so the hope is that Franks can average over 10 yards per attempt against Charleston Southern. That would set the tone for the season and show that the Gators are going to go down the field more.
I don’t know whether that will happen. I think Franks will likely show some flashes but also show some inconsistency. I also think that Florida will be able to rely on its running game to overpower the Buccaneers.
I also think that Charleston Southern will hit a few big plays. That’s the nature of a Todd Grantham defense and one of the problems Florida had last season. I don’t think those things just go away because you have a change in the coaching regime.
But in the end, I don’t believe that Charleston Southern will have enough to punch the ball into the end zone and will end up settling for field goals. I think the Gators will be able to convert when they get into the red zone and this one will be a laugher pretty early on.
Gators win: 52-6.