Running QBs and turnovers the key to a Gators win over Mississippi State

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The Gators went into Knoxville and whipped the Vols last Saturday. The question is whether they can do the same this week in Starkville against Dan Mullen’s old team?

Florida is clearly improving. Feleipe Franks played really well against Tennessee and has played significantly better this season than at any point last season. Even against Kentucky, Franks played decently and wasn’t the main reason for Florida’s loss.

Instead it was Florida’s defense that sputtered against the Wildcats, giving up over 300 yards rushing and surrendering a bunch of big plays.

Mississippi State is also coming off a loss against Kentucky. The Bulldogs lost by three touchdowns to Kentucky, a significantly worse result than Florida.

That loss – and what it may imply about Kentucky – has given Florida fans significant hope that the early season loss to the Wildcats wasn’t as bad as it appeared at the time. Additionally, it has shown that Mississippi State has weaknesses that can be exploited.

The question then, is will Florida be able to do so?

2018 Results

Florida and Mississippi State have remarkably similar profiles thus far.

Florida has outscored its opponents by 25.0 points per game this season. Mississippi State has outscored its opponents by 25.8 points per game. If we eliminate the FBS cupcakes to start the year, that number drops to 17.7 for Florida and 15.3 for Mississippi State.

Those opponents have also been remarkably similar.

Florida and Mississippi State’s opponents’ FPI, yards per play gained and yards per play allowed in 2018 thus far. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

The FBS opponents that Florida and Mississippi State have played have almost identical ESPN FPI rankings, similar offensive yards per play gained and defensive yards per play allowed. Basically, Florida and Mississippi State have played the exact same schedule and are both 3-1 with similar point differentials.

That should indicate that this is an even matchup, right?

2018 Offensive Comparison

Well, yes and no. It is true that Florida and Mississippi State have had almost identical seasons thus far based on scoring and win/loss record. But if we look at the underlying statistics of both teams, Mississippi State does have some advantages.

2018 offensive stats for Florida and Mississippi State. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

All the stats in the above chart are against FBS opponents. Florida does have an advantage in offensive points per game while Mississippi State has an advantage in points allowed. But if we look at yards per play gained, Mississippi State appears to have a slightly better offense.

The point advantage for Florida doesn’t come from Mississippi State faltering in the red zone either. The Bulldogs have converted 90.9 percent of red zone opportunities into points versus 80 percent for Florida. The Bulldogs have also had 3.7 red zone attempts per game versus 3.3 for Florida.

Perhaps it is the big plays that Florida is getting? After all, if Florida isn’t getting into the red zone because they are hitting 50-yard bombs, that’s a good thing. Well, Mississippi State has averaged 4.3 offensive touchdowns per game versus 4.0 for Florida.

No, the scoring advantage for Florida is coming from special teams and defense. The Gators have scored two special teams touchdowns, and while the defense hasn’t scored a touchdown yet, it has put the offense in advantageous situations the past two games. Turnovers in the opponents territory have directly led to two field goals (against Colorado State) and three TDs (against Tennessee).

Throw in the safety against Tennessee and the Florida offense is really only averaging 27.3 points per game. That’s a marked improvement from last season, but it is no longer the six point advantage over Mississippi State that it appears.

2018 Defensive Comparison

Of course, those turnovers count. And that’s where the data gets really interesting. Based on points per game, Florida’s defense hasn’t been much worse than Mississippi State but the underlying stats tell a different story.

2018 defensive stats for Florida and Mississippi State. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

For the metrics of yards per play, yards per rush and yards per pass, Florida is middle-of-the-pack. Yet they sport a top-30 scoring defense. On the other hand, Mississippi State has a defensive rank in yards per play that matches its rank in points per game. This stark difference is again is rooted in turnovers.

Explosive plays and turnovers for Florida and Mississippi State in 2018. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

I like to measure the explosiveness of a defense by looking at both tackles for loss and sacks as a ratio to total tackles (as a proxy for total plays). Florida’s defense isn’t producing a ton of tackles for loss as a percentage of total tackles. On the other hand, Mississippi State has produced a ton of pressure, with a whopping 17.9 percent of its tackles going for tackles for loss and 5.6 percent going for sacks. As a comparison, national champion Alabama had a TFL/TT percentage of 10.5 and a Sacks/TT percentage of 4.1 in 2017.

That’s what makes the turnovers for Florida so anomalous. Fumble recoveries inherently require some luck. Typically the more explosive plays a defense creates, the more fumbles it will force. But there are going to be times that you hit a QB right in the back and he doesn’t cough up the ball.

The fact that Florida is getting into the backfield so much less than Mississippi State but has so many more fumble recoveries makes me fear that it is luck-based.

Beyond the high number of forced fumbles, Florida has also recovered an unusual number of the fumbles that have been forced. Typically teams recover about 50 percent of fumbles. Florida has recovered 90 percent of fumbles the past three games. That just isn’t sustainable.

Conversely, Mississippi State has only caused one fumble in its three games against FBS opponents and hasn’t recovered one yet. That is going to change if the Bulldogs keep getting into the backfield regularly.

2018 Quarterback Play

Feleipe Franks has been much better this season and that isn’t up for debate. He has protected the ball and contributed to explosive plays which are making the Gators offense significantly more efficient than the past three seasons.

QB play for and against Florida and Mississippi State thus far in 2018. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

But just because he’s been better doesn’t mean he’s been spectacular. Through 4 games, Florida’s QBs have a YAR of 0.33. If we eliminate the cupcake game that drops to 0.01, or exactly average.

Conversely, the Florida defense has been slightly above average in the YAR allowed by opposing QBs (more negative is better). But again, if we eliminate the cupcake game, the opponent’s QB YAR rises to -0.05, or almost exactly average.

This is the profile of a 7-5 or 6-6 team, as it suggests offensive output of 30.4 points per game and 27.5 points per game allowed.

Mississippi State’s profile looks significantly better. The Bulldogs QB YAR is 1.92 and drops to 0.94 if we eliminate the cupcake to open the year. The opponent QB YAR is -1.91 and rises to -1.41 if the cupcake is eliminate. That’s the profile of a really, really good defense and a pretty solid offense.

In fact, in the loss to Kentucky the Bulldogs’ defense did its job against the QB. Kentucky QB Terry Wilson only averaged 5.1 yards per pass and 1.6 yards per rush.

The reason the Bulldogs lost the game was twofold. First, they gave up 165 yards rushing to Benny Snell. Second, QB Nick Fitzgerald played really poorly, averaging 4.5 yards per pass attempt. But Fitzgerald’s struggles through the air shouldn’t be a surprise. He averaged 6.2 yards per attempt all year in 2017. The real shock was that he was unable to contribute on the ground.

Kentucky held Fitzgerald to 20 yards rushing on 16 attempts (1.3 yards per rush). He is averaging 5.7 yards per rush this season after averaging 6.6 in 2016 and 2017. That led to a YAR for Fitzgerald of -2.53, significantly lower than Wilson’s -1.94.

Takeaway

And that means there are two things to look for in this game. Can Florida stop the Mississippi State QB running game? And can the Gators continue causing turnovers at a high clip?

If Florida’s defense against Kentucky is any indication, the first may be a tall task.

Wilson ran for 105 yards on 10 carries against Florida but has only run for 4.1 yards per carry against other opponents. Florida’s defense has certainly improved since that game, but they also haven’t played a QB anywhere near as mobile as Fitzgerald.

I noted in my recap of the Tennessee game that Todd Grantham moved linebacker Vosean Joseph out on Tennessee tight end Dominick Wood-Anderson. That frees up linebacker David Reese and defensive back Chauncey Gardner-Johnson to be enforcers at the line of scrimmage. Joseph excelled in that role.

But I don’t think Florida is all that worried about Mississippi State’s ability to throw to its tight ends. Instead, they are going to be worried about the QB run. And if that’s the case, the linebackers are going to have to show discipline to remain in their gaps to stop the run.

That is an area where none of Florida’s linebackers have excelled, though to be fair they have been much better in that area against Colorado State and Tennessee.

So maybe Florida has fixed overpursuit from its linebackers. That still doesn’t fix that the defense is statistically significantly worse than Mississippi State’s defense. That means the Gators will have to again rely on turnovers.

At some point, the Gators good luck with turnovers will end. The fact that Mississippi State’s defense has been in the backfield much more than Florida’s indicates that this may be the game for that to happen. That’s even more of a concern considering some of the struggles that Florida’s offensive line has had this season.

The path to a Florida win is rooted in being able to contain Fitzgerald on the ground and winning the turnover battle by at least two. Can they do it? Sure.

Will they? Well, I haven’t been right about this Gators team much early in the season but I don’t think so. Hopefully I’m wrong again.

Mississippi State wins, 34-24.

Picks this year thus far: 2-2 straight up, 1-3 ATS

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