Florida-LSU will come down to Feleipe Franks versus Joe Burrow

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The Florida Gators come into this weekend’s game against LSU riding high after two straight SEC road wins.

Florida has looked impressive in different ways during its current three–game winning streak. The Gators have outscored its opponents by 71 points in those three games and by an average of three TDs this season.

Of course, LSU comes to town with a 5-0 record and ranked fifth in the AP Poll. The Tigers have outscored its opponents by nearly 19 points per game and that includes wins over then 8th ranked Miami and 7th ranked Auburn away from Baton Rouge.

Mississippi State is a good team. Kentucky may be a very good team. But LSU is the biggest challenge for Dan Mullen’s team thus far in 2018.

Will Florida be up to the challenge?

Team Comparisons

Just looking at the AP Poll ranking makes it seem like this should be a cakewalk for LSU. After all, how often does the 22nd ranked team beat a top-5 team?

But there is some statistical evidence that Florida will be just fine.

2018 offensive comparison of Florida and LSU vs. FBS opponents. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

While Florida has scored less points versus FBS opponents than LSU, the underlying stats indicate that Florida’s offense compares favorably to LSU. Florida has a much higher rank in yards per play gained than LSU, and typically this correlates really well with scoring.

If we do the same analysis on the defensive side of the ball, it tells the same story.

2018 defensive comparison of LSU and Florida versus FBS opponents. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

Florida actually ranks slightly better in points per game allowed against FBS opponents. Again, Florida ranks better in yards per play allowed compared to LSU.

So Florida’s better on offense and defense, so the Gators win right? Well that’s where we need to consider comparing schedules.

Comparison of Florida and LSU’s opponents in 2018 thus far. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

Both Florida and LSU have played one FCS opponent. Beyond that, Florida has played teams with a significantly higher ESPN FPI ranking, very similar offensive statistics and significantly worse defenses.

So that would explain why the LSU and Florida defenses have performed relatively similarly (against similar offenses) while LSU has performed worse offensively (against markedly better defenses).

Both teams have played two poor defenses and two good defenses. Florida faced Kentucky and Mississippi State, ranked 4th and 23rd in yards per play allowed, respectively. The Gators averaged 14.5 points in those two games.

Conversely, LSU faced Miami and Auburn, ranked 14th and 22nd in yards per play allowed. The Tigers averaged 27.5 points per game in those two games.

This indicates that the offensive advantage that Florida has shown decreases significantly – or maybe even shifts to LSU – when the quality of the opponent gets better.

This becomes even clearer when we look at explosive plays, defined here as plays that go for more than 20 yards.

Explosive plays allowed and given up by Florida and LSU in 2018. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

LSU and Florida both have similar numbers of explosive plays (EPs), and have allowed very similar numbers of them as well. Both teams have converted those EPs into points at a really high rate while preventing their opponents from converting those EPs into points.

But if we look at those two games against good defenses, LSU has eight explosive plays versus five for Florida. Again, Florida’s offense was shut down to a much higher degree than LSU.

Quarterback Comparison

These teams are really close, a lot closer than the AP rankings indicate. And in any close game, you have to figure the outcome will come down to the quarterbacks.

It’s not a surprise to anyone who has read what I’ve written during the offseason that I believe in Joe Burrow. Burrow has been fairly pedestrian thus far this season when you look at his overall numbers. Gators fans have made sure that I’m aware that Feleipe Franks has a higher QB rating and completion percentage than Burrow.

But that’s somewhat misleading. QB rating is heavily weighted towards TD passes, and Franks had 5 in the opener against Charleston Southern. If we remove the cupcake statistics from each QBs ledger, Franks’ QB rating is 132.8 and Burrow’s is 131.9 and the completion percentage for Franks is 54.9 to 54.0 for Burrow.

If we use yards above replacement (YAR), which looks at both yards per throw and yards per rush and compares to an average QB, Burrow has outperformed Franks. As a reminder, a YAR of zero is exactly average, 1.0 is a really good QB and 2.0 is a Heisman contender.

For the season, Burrow has a YAR of 0.60 to Franks 0.13. And if we remove the cupcake game again, Burrow has a YAR of 0.73 to Franks’ -0.29. That’s a significant difference, driven mostly by Burrow’s ability to hit big plays.

Burrow has been less accurate than I have expected. He had a completion percentage of over 70 percent in high school and that typically translates pretty closely to college. He isn’t anywhere close to that right now (53.4).

What Burrow is doing is hitting explosive plays and a lot of them. Of LSUs 22 EPs, Burrow is responsible for 18 of them through the air. Those 18 throws have accounted for 57 percent of Burrow’s total yardage.

Explosive plays from Franks and Burrow in 2018. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

Compare that to Feleipe Franks, who has 11 explosive plays through the air (out of the Gators 19 total). Those 11 throws only account for 39 percent of Franks’ total yardage.

What this means is that the LSU offense is much more feast-or-famine than the Florida offense. Burrow only averages 3.9 yards per throw when he’s not hitting an explosive play compared to Franks’ 5.1 yard per attempt average.

But LSU has been able to turn that feast into points at a high clip. This means that the Florida defensive backs are going to be critical to stopping LSU’s offense. If Florida can limit LSU’s big plays through the air, the Tigers don’t look to have the running game to put up enough points to win the game.

Prediction

There are a few things working against the Gators path to a victory in this one.

First, if you believe that completion percentages from high school translate to college, then Burrow’s performance is likely to regress towards a completion percentage north of 60 percent. And a QB who is hitting big plays and completing a large percentage of his passes is going to be really dangerous.

Second, Florida hasn’t played an explosive offense through the air yet. The Gators have played teams ranked 57th, 59th, 100th and 103rd in yards per pass attempt thus far. So yes, the Gators defense is ranked 31st in yards per pass allowed but that is against teams that have mostly been unable to really exploit the thin defensive backfield.

Third, Todd Grantham likes to blitz. That works against QBs like Nick Fitzgerald, as he wasn’t able to adjust quick enough to make Florida pay. But if you look at the film of play that ended the game against Mississippi State, tight end Farrod Green (#82) comes wide open across the middle.

This play is really fun for Gators fans to watch, but the minute Stiner blitzes Fitzgerald has to know that the middle of the field is going to be wide open. Florida brought eight rushers and only had three men in coverage against a four receiver set. They aren’t going to get away with this against more advanced QBs.

I don’t think LSU is way better than Florida, but that’s more a statement about how much Florida has improved than it is about any LSU weaknesses. Florida’s defense has been way better against the pass than I have expected thus far in 2018. If they maintain that level of performance, the Gators are going to win the game.

I picked LSU to win the SEC West to start the year, and that was because I believe Burrow is really good. He’s only shown flashes thus far and he’ll have to be way more consistent than he has been thus far. And while it hasn’t shown up this year yet, Ed Orgeron on the sidelines worries me when picking the Tigers.

But if you had told me in August that LSU would be 5-0 coming into the Swamp and only favored by 2.5 points, I would have thought you were crazy. The Tigers have been tested on the road and have earned its high ranking.

One thing is for sure. This Gators team is a lot better than I thought to start the year and certainly after the loss to Kentucky. They have proven me wrong each time I’ve picked against them this year.  Hopefully that continues to be the case.

LSU wins, 27-20.

Picks this year thus far: 2-3 straight up, 1-4 ATS

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