Sometimes you just have to admit you were wrong.
I picked Florida to lose to Tennessee and I was wrong. I picked Florida to lose to Mississippi State and I was wrong. And I picked Florida to lose to LSU and I was wrong again.
The funny thing is I’ve seen the Gators advantages on film and pointed them out in every preview. I just haven’t had the confidence that they would be able to take advantage enough to pull out the victory. Call it my McElwain PTSD (h/t Dustin Woolbright).
It was pretty obvious that Tennessee’s offensive line really struggled, particularly up the middle. Still, I thought Guarantano would be able to hit enough big plays to offset that disadvantage and the Gators linebackers would allow a couple of big plays by jumping out of gaps. The Gators absolutely terrorized Guarantano and stuffed the Volunteer run game.
Against Mississippi State, the Bulldogs needed Nick Fitzgerald to dominate the game on the ground. Florida had been really poor against a running QB against Kentucky and Terry Wilson ran all over them. The Gators were going to have to stop Fitzgerald on the ground to win and they did (32 yards on 20 carries).
This week, it was clear that Florida was going to have to stop explosive plays from LSU through the air. LSU had 18 explosive plays through the air in 2018 coming in, but only averaged 3.9 yards per pass on all other plays. Compare that to Florida’s average of 5.1. LSU only had two explosive plays through the air, and one was on the final desperation drive on a fourth-and-19.
Yet again, Florida was able to limit what the opposition wanted to do enough that its offense could pull the game out in the end. That’s the mark of a really good team.
Gators Defense
When LSU went right down the field on its opening drive, it looked like it might be a long day for the Gators.
Not only did LSU score, but they did so with an explosive play through the air (38 yard pass to Justin Jefferson) and seemed to run the ball at will. That continued into the second drive until Florida was able to stop the Tigers with a strip sack for a fumble.
But there was one area where LSU was clearly targeting the Gators in those first two drives.
Here’s the long play to Jefferson (#2) to start the game. You can see that he is in one-on-one coverage against cornerback C.J. McWilliams (#12). Florida has one safety in the middle and he is unable to help, leaving McWilliams in one-on-one coverage. That was a theme early on.
Here, LSU targets McWilliams again in the red zone. Had the throw been decent it would have been an easy TD. The next play was then a slant between McWilliams and the safety for a third down conversion out of a very similar formation.
On the next drive, the Tigers targeted McWilliams again. Here he looks confused as LSU wide receiver Stephen Sullivan (#10) comes open on the outside.
In fact, even on the sack by Polite that turned the game early on, McWilliams was outside against Jefferson. That’s where Burrow was going with the ball had he not been sacked and he had the one-on-one coverage that he wanted.
Right as Burrow begins to drift right, Jefferson is behind McWilliams and safety Donovan Stiner (#13) is still in the middle of the field. Had the pressure not gotten there, this would have been another TD.
For the rest of the game, McWilliams was only in for one more series and that was in the second half to give the defensive backs a blow. The minutes he came back into the game, Burrow immediately tried to target him deep but was unable to connect.
Burrow was 6-7 for 78 yards in the first quarter (11.1 yards per attempt). He finished with only 191 yards total and a YAR of -1.58 for the game, including averaging 3.2 yards per attempt in the second half. Jefferson – LSU’s best wide receiver – only caught two more balls for 12 yards for the rest of the game.
Here, Burrow targets Jefferson (#2) but he is covered by C.J. Henderson (#5). The throw is perfect by Burrow, but Jefferson is unable to bring it in because he is so tightly covered by Henderson. The switch from McWilliams to Henderson completely changed how LSU’s offense was able to move the ball.
Give Grantham credit. He saw what LSU was doing and made the adjustment early to limit the Tigers success.
Gators Offense
Feleipe Franks wasn’t fantastic in this one (YAR = -0.47) but he was significantly better than Burrow. The key to Florida moving the ball wasn’t so much the QB play as it was the offensive line.
Early on, Florida really struggled at the point of attack. The Gators needed to get better push up-front and to do so, they went to Brett Heggie at offensive guard.
This play was on Florida’s first TD drive. Running back Lamical Perine (#22) does a great job of reading his blocks, but look at Heggie (#61) come pulling across the formation and clearing the way for Perine. This requires an agility that starting guard Fred Johnson just does not show.
The problem is that Heggie and Johnson both show inconsistencies. After Heggie struggled for a couple of series, Johnson was brought back in and played pretty well initially.
On this play, Johnson stones the LSU defensive tackle. This gives Franks the ability to sidestep the pressure from his left and hit the throw to Hammond down the sideline. It’s a beautiful throw by Franks. But it is only possible because the right side of the offensive line won at the line of scrimmage.
But Johnson eventually began to struggle again. This is a terrible throw by Franks. But it’s not a coincidence that the throw from Franks is rushed and off-target considering he’s getting blasted in the chest as he throws it.
The reason he’s getting hit is because Johnson gets thrown aside by his man, defensive tackle Breiden Fehoko (#91). Fehoko is the man with the direct shot on Franks, who throws the interception while getting crunched in the side.
Florida brought Heggie again on the next drive and he was in the game during the critical TD drive in the fourth quarter.
Here, Heggie makes a key block that springs running back Lamical Perine for a first down. Again, this shows Heggie’s agility and ability to get outside.
And the play everyone will remember is the throwback to Franks by tight end Lucas Krull. But the play that I think exemplifies how far this team has come was the one right before.
This seems like a really simple play. Franks takes the snap and runs for a first down. But this isn’t something that this team did just a few weeks ago against Kentucky. In that game, Florida consistently had the numbers advantage up-front to have Franks run the ball and decided not to do it.
In this game, when the numbers advantage presented itself, Franks ran the ball. On this play, Florida has a 7-on-6 advantage and because it is third-and-7, LSU defensive back Greedy Wilson’s (#29) first instinct is to backpedal. By then, it is too late and Franks has the first down.
But look at how well the offensive line blocks the play. Right tackle Jawaan Taylor (#65) and Heggie (#61) turn their men away from the hole and hold the line of scrimmage. Perine (#22) sets the edge. Left guard Tyler Jordan (#64) pulls into the hole as a lead blocker for Franks and guarantees the first down.
This isn’t something this team could have done four weeks ago, let alone last season. In fact, against Kentucky they weren’t willing to do it. That’s significant growth offensively in a short amount of time.
Takeaway
Last year Florida lost to LSU 17-16 at home. The Gators had three possessions in the fourth quarter, all of them while down only a point and were unable to convert.
Not only were they not able to convert, but the Gators combined for only 24 yards on those drives while Franks went 3-6 for 23 yards and was sacked once. The offensive line had holding and false start penalties. The game essentially ended on two throws to Brandon Powell, one on third down that Franks air-mailed when he was open and one on fourth down where Franks stared him down and threw into triple coverage.
This year, the winning drive started like this.
This is really a one-man route. LSU has 10 guys up near the line of scrimmage, meaning they have one deep safety patrolling the middle of the field (Grant Delpit, #9). Josh Hammond (#10) delays coming out of the backfield and then heads out into the flat.
There is only one place to throw this ball, outside to Van Jefferson (#12). But look at Franks’ head. He looks left initially, holding Delpit. He then delivers the ball to the outside shoulder on a fade and Delpit isn’t able to get over there in time.
This pass gets broken up last year, or maybe even intercepted. Instead, it was an explosive play that jump-started a game-winning drive.
I was really impressed by Florida against LSU Saturday afternoon. To be honest, I would have been impressed even if they had lost the game.
The Gators made sound adjustments and took advantage of the things that LSU was giving them. The staff made personnel changes in response to what LSU was trying to do. And the players made the plays they had to when the lights were brightest.
The result was Florida’s first win over a top-5 team since Ole Miss in 2015.
Of course, the Gators followed that win up with losses to LSU, Florida State, Alabama and Michigan. But that team lost Will Grier to a PED suspension and was 5-1 in one-score games.
The hope is that this team may be more like 2012 than 2015. That year, Florida beat then fourth-ranked LSU at home in a physical game and rode that momentum to the Sugar Bowl. That team did go 4-1 in one-score games but sported an elite defense and a game manager at QB (Jeff Driskel).
Florida is now 2-0 in one-score games in 2018 and a play one way or the other in either of the last two games and the vibe around Gainesville would be a lot different. But those plays did go the Gators way, and ever since Kentucky this team has been dictating what it wants to do to its opponent rather than the other way around.
And with Kentucky’s loss to Texas A&M, Florida now only needs one more loss from the Wildcats to control its destiny in the SEC East. For sure, the road is still a long one and Georgia waits, but Florida showed Saturday that it can hang with any team in the country.
When people point to coaching, a lot of times they zero in on a specific play call (like the Krull throwback to Franks) or the development of one particular area. But the real measure of coaching is whether you put your players in a position to take away what the opposition wants to do.
Against Kentucky, Florida was unable to do so. Against every other team thus far, Dan Mullen’s squad has done exactly that despite my doubts he’d be able to do so.
And I’ve never been happier to be wrong.