Florida can prove it is for real by dominating Vanderbilt

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In some ways, this may be the toughest test for Dan Mullen thus far as Gators head coach.

That’s because the loss to Kentucky could be blamed on former coach Jim McElwain. Losses to Tennessee, Mississippi State or LSU would have been acceptable because the team was still learning and developing.

But even though Florida is better than Vanderbilt and it’s not particularly close, the players have been getting praised all week for the win over LSU.

These are the types of match-ups that the true contenders dominate. They’re also the types of match-ups where pretenders struggle.

Florida isn’t just coming off of the win against LSU. The Gators are coming off of two emotional one-score wins, and the question is not where Florida has advantages against Vanderbilt. The question is whether they will remain focused enough to exploit the clear advantages they have everywhere.

On our Gators Breakdown preseason previews, David Waters and I expressed concern that Mullen’s first team in Gainesville might win some game we don’t expect but lose some we don’t expect as well.

A loss here would definitely fall into the latter category.

Team Comparison

Jim McElwain has been criticized for his recruiting, and rightly so. But compared to Vanderbilt, Florida’s cupboard is completely full.

Recruiting breakdown of the starting-22 for Florida and Vanderbilt. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

Comparing the starting-22, Florida has more talent overall, on offense, on defense, on the offensive line, on the defensive line, at linebacker and at defensive back. The Gators have talent advantages at every single position on the field and it’s not close.

That has shown on the field this year, as the Commodores have allowed 144 points versus 151 scored indicating they’ve earned their 3-3 record. For comparison, the Gators have allowed only 89 points versus 204 scored.

The difference becomes even starker when you look at SEC play. There, Florida has outscored its opponents by an average of 7.5 points per game (in four games) while Vanderbilt has been outscored by 25.5 (in two games).

Yes, Vanderbilt was able to stick with Notre Dame in South Bend and nearly pull off the upset. But they have followed that performance up with 37-14 and 41-13 stink-bombs versus South Carolina and Georgia.

Vanderbilt’s offense isn’t awful. Past interations of Vanderbilt teams could rely on the running game with running back Ralph Webb. With Webb gone, the offensive identity has switched to quarterback Kyle Shurmur. That’s okay, but nothing spectacular.

Offensive comparison in 2018 thus far between Florida and Vanderbilt. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

Florida’s offense ranks 32nd in yards per play at 6.0 against FBS opponents while Vanderbilt ranks 61st at 5.5. Florida’s offense is slightly better through the air, but significantly better on the ground. Much of that difference on the ground is the running of the QBs, as Feleipe Franks has run for 152 yards versus -16 for Shurmur.

2018 comparison of Feleipe Franks and Kyle Shurmur. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

Indeed, if we look at the performance of Shurmur versus Franks, Shurmur is actually slightly better through the air with more opportunities. But when you factor in the rushing yardage, Franks grades out (by YAR) as just barely above average while Shurmur is below average.

All of this amounts to an average offense for Vanderbilt, which would be fine if the defense was playing well. It is not.

Comparison of 2018 thus far on defense for Florida and Vanderbilt. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

Florida ranks 19th in yards per play allowed compared to 70th for Vanderbilt. The Commodores have actually produced a fairly large amount of turnovers this year (9) which has helped the scoring defense (36th), but the fact remains that Vandy is giving up a bunch of yards and when the turnovers don’t come, that’s going to translate into a bunch of points.

Florida also has forced a large number of turnovers (16), which has helped bolster its scoring defense somewhat (12th). But the Gators are coming by those turnovers honestly, as they are putting a significant amount of pressure on the opposition.

If we look at tackles for loss and sacks as a ratio to total tackles, the Gators rank comparably to elite defenses. Vanderbilt ranks significantly lower in both of those categories.

The way to stop Florida is to put pressure on QB Feleipe Franks and force him to make decisions quicker than he wants. We saw that just this past week when pressure caused the interception in the end zone against LSU.

But Vanderbilt hasn’t shown any ability to get that kind of pressure this year.

Prediction

I haven’t been able to read this Florida team at all this year. But this one is fairly straightforward.

Florida is more talented and has been more effective thus far in 2018 on offense compared to Vanderbilt. Florida is more talented and has been more effective thus far in 2018 on defense compared to Vanderbilt.

The only way this game is even close is if Vanderbilt can force a bunch of turnovers and the noon start time throws the Gators for a loop.

But you have to believe that Mullen has been warning his players that the bye week practices will be considerably more difficult if they choose to take the Commodores lightly.

Vanderbilt may not be a particularly formidable opponent. But on the road, starting at noon, and coming off of two emotional wins means this game is going to tell us a lot about this Gators team.

Florida wins, 31-17.

Picks this year thus far: 2-4 straight up, 1-5 ATS

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