How the Gators can follow the LSU blueprint to stop Jake Fromm

Jake Fromm has received lots of accolades over the past two seasons, and rightfully so.

Fromm came in as a true freshman to replace injured starter Jacob Eason early last year and beat Notre Dame on the road as the start to a run that saw Georgia one play away from winning a National Championship.

Fromm only averaged 19.9 attempts per game last season, but in those attempts he put up a QB rating of 156.2 and a YAR of 0.93 against FBS opponents. This year, Fromm has picked up where he left off, improving his QB rating to 167.0 and his YAR to 1.17.

Georgia’s offense is currently ranked 11th in the country, averaging 6.7 yards per play. That is slightly down from 9th last season, but the dip is attributable to a decrease in efficacy of the Georgia running game. Fromm has actually been better this season.

Well, that’s almost true. Overall, Fromm has been better. But he hasn’t been better against top competition, and that’s one of the reasons why Florida has a real shot on Saturday.

Fromm Statistical Profile

The numbers I showed above are really impressive. And for sure, Fromm overall has looked like one of the best QBs in the country.

But there are some underlying numbers that should concern Georgia fans.

Jake Fromm’s performance at home, on the road and against top-25 teams (by ESPN’s FPI). (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

Fromm has been a world beater at home in 2017 and 2018. A YAR above 1.0 is a really good QB and above 2.0 is a Heisman candidate. An average QB would have a YAR of exactly zero.

So that means that last year Fromm was Baker Mayfield at home, then played slightly worse than a game manager away from Athens. Against Top-25 teams (based on the ESPN FPI), Fromm struggled even more, playing significantly worse than an average QB.

Some decrease is expected from home to road, and particularly against top teams, but these are fairly extreme splits. For comparison, Gators QB Feleipe Franks has a YAR of -0.22 against FBS competition and -0.69 against Top-25 opponents this year.

Those splits might be expected for a true freshman thrust into a starting role. But Fromm is showing similar splits this season as well, excelling at home, playing significantly worse on the road and then basically average against top competition.

All of that amounts to a team that has averaged 43 points per game at home versus 33 points per game on the road against FBS competition. Yes, that number is significantly impacted by the 16-point performance against LSU. But it is also buoyed by both a defensive and special teams TD against Missouri.

This scoring split was not observed last season, as Georgia averaged 36.2 points per game at home versus 38.5 points per game on the road. And that leads us to look at the one place where Georgia’s offense has significantly changed: running back.

A comparison of Georgia’s running game from 2017 to 2018. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

Last season, Georgia was basically the same team at home as it was on the road when it comes to the running game. This season, the Bulldogs are averaging slightly more yards per rush at home than a year ago. But on the road, Georgia just isn’t getting the same results.

In games against teams ranked in ESPNs FPI Top-25, Georgia has rushed even worse. They did so in 2017 as well, but keep in mind that its 2017 schedule included Notre Dame, Mississippi State, Auburn (twice), Oklahoma and Alabama.

This season’s top-25 competition of LSU and Missouri is a significant step below what the Bulldogs played against last season.

Perhaps even more telling for Georgia is the reduction in the number of rushing plays as a percentage of total plays. The team is relying on Fromm more and more in these types of games. He has been unable to deliver against top competition either this year or last.

That was acceptable last season because Sony Michel and Nick Chubb were able to cover for the shortcomings of their QB. This year’s running backs – D’Andre Swift and Elijah Holyfield – have thus far been unable to do the same.

LSU’s plan to stop Fromm

If you want to understand how to stop Fromm and this Georgia offense, look no further than the Bulldogs loss to LSU.

Fromm completed 47 percent of his passes, averaged 6.1 yards per attempt and ran 16 times for -19 yards. That translates to a YAR of -2.01 and a QB rating of 96.6. If Florida’s defense can force Fromm to play like he did two weeks ago, the Gators will have a great chance to win.

So what did LSU do to shut Fromm down? It wasn’t one particular thing. Instead, it was a combination of coverages that kept Fromm guessing.

This is the opening drive of the game. This was a beautiful play by Fromm but illustrates the kind of deception that LSU was using all game long.

What you see is that initially the LSU safeties are offset, which typically means a single-high safety look. That leaves wide receivers in one-on-one coverage on the outside. Right before the snap, the LSU safety at the top of the screen runs up like he is going to blitz, but then sprints outside to double cover the outside receiver. Fromm correctly comes off of his outside receiver to deliver a fantastic throw to tight end Isaac Nauta streaking down the seam.

Fromm won that battle and turned it into a big gain. So why am I showing it?

This was a second-and-9 play in the LSU red zone on Georgia’s second drive. LSU shows a cover-2 configuration pre-snap, but this time instead of sprinting back into a cover-2, the safety blitzes. Fromm appears to be staring right at his receiver in one-on-one coverage but doesn’t deliver the ball when he comes wide open.

I can only assume this is because he didn’t understand the look that LSU game him. He was worried that the LSU safety would fake a blitz and then sprint back into coverage, causing an interception. The safety actually did just that on the next play and forced a field goal attempt.

LSU also did some really creative things when they did decide to bring extra men to pressure Fromm.

On this play, that safety came on the blitz and disrupted the pocket. Normally, this is a pretty easy read. Fromm should see the blitz and hit his wide receiver (Terry Godwin, #5)) coming out of the slot for a first down.

But LSU has two men on Godwin. That’s because they only actually rushed four defenders, it’s just that they came from very different places. Watch the play again and notice the two defenders backpedaling aggressively following the snap. Without a hot read to throw to, Fromm didn’t have time to get the ball downfield. And because of the deception, LSU was able to pressure Fromm.

The cat-and-mouse game continued between LSU defensive coordinator Dave Aranda and Fromm as the game wore on.

On this play, Aranda calls a cover-3 defense, which calls for a defensive back to take one-third of the field deep. LSU had six defenders at the line of scrimmage at the snap, but again the linebackers aggressively backpedal into a zone and LSU only rushes three. Despite this, LSU is able to get pressure on Fromm who eventually throws the ball away.

But Fromm had an answer for this defense. The weakness of the cover-3 defense is down the seams and in the flat. Fromm likes throwing into the flat more than the seams so Georgia used that skill to both play to Fromm’s skill set and also get the ball out quickly.

Again on this play you’ll note that LSU drops into a cover-3 shell. The difference this time is that the linebackers blitz. Fromm is able to deliver the ball into the flat to his wide receiver (Mecole Hardman, #4) right on the sideline.

Notice Fromm has a receiver (Terry Godwin, #5) wide open across the middle of the field and doesn’t see him. Or perhaps he expects that LSU will only rush three and there will be linebackers in the middle of the field?

Fromm delivers the ball successfully, but it is a tough throw. This is a completion that Aranda can accept even though it gives Georgia a first down.

Georgia’s wins were relatively modest through the air against LSU. And even when they were successful, LSU was able to defend it successfully later.

On this play early in the third quarter, the left side of the defense comes up to stop the run on the fake and then falls into a zone coverage afterwards. Fromm finds the hole in the zone for a completion and a first down.

But later in the quarter, Georgia tries the same play. This time LSU safety Grant Delpit (#9) runs back into the throwing lane and nearly picks the ball off.

Two things to note on this play. First, it’s an incredible play by a very gifted player and requires an understanding of what Georgia is trying to do on the play. Second, don’t be surprised if Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is put in the same position against Georgia on Saturday as he has the same kind of athletic ability and is going to be brought up in run support.

Takeaway

None of these plays in isolation really explains why LSU was able to shut down Fromm.

But taken as a whole, we can see that LSU kept Fromm off balance by constantly changing coverages and who rushed the QB within those coverages. The Tigers mixed up when linebackers blitzed with zone on the back end, when the linebackers dropped into coverage with a three-man rush and when defensive linemen dropped into coverage in zone-blitz looks.

The reason Fromm couldn’t get comfortable is because he was never seeing the same thing, and there were times when he didn’t deliver the ball to the right place because he wasn’t entirely sure what he was seeing.

Combine that with Fromm’s clear preference to throw outside, and there are ways that a Florida defense can exploit those tendencies.

First, the Gators can drop defensive linemen into coverage on zone-blitzes (bringing David Reese, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson or Vosean Joseph on the “blitz” while dropping Jabari Zuniga or Jachai Polite into coverage) because there is limited risk that Fromm will exploit that matchup across the middle.

Second, Florida can aggressively bring linebackers (and even safeties) up against the Georgia run game because Fromm doesn’t typically throw over the linebackers after a play-action fake but waits for his man to come across the zone (as seen above).

Finally, Florida does have defensive ends in Polite, Zuniga and Cece Jefferson who can just win one-on-one battles up-front. In fact, I would say this is an area where Florida’s defense is significantly better than LSU’s defense. That doesn’t mean that Florida shouldn’t and won’t mix up coverages. But there is a lot more freedom to do creative things on the back-end when you know your front-four will get to the QB.

The other thing to note is that while Feleipe Franks hasn’t had a truly exceptional game,  he also hasn’t had a dud like Fromm had against LSU. In fact, Franks had a YAR of -0.47 against the Tigers.

If he can do the same against Georgia, Florida likely wins this game. I say this not because that’s a great performance by Franks, but because Florida’s defense has held Nick Fitzgerald (YAR = -2.70), Joe Burrow (YAR = -1.56) and Kyle Shurmur (YAR = -1.43) in check in the last three games.

Fromm hasn’t shown he can do better than that in games against top teams, and Florida has certainly proven to be a worthy defensive adversary thus far in 2018. Georgia has been relying on Fromm much more this year than last and it came back to bite them against LSU last week.

We’ll see if it bites them again on Saturday against the Gators.