Florida-Georgia preview: Why the Gators will win big

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For the first time since 2008, Florida and Georgia come into the Cocktail Party both ranked in the top-10. This game doesn’t just have SEC East implications or SEC implications, but could potentially have national implications.

The winner likely ends up in the AP top-5 when the polls come out Sunday. At that point, it will be difficult to keep either out of the playoff if they keep winning, especially if Kentucky slips up once more (in Florida’s case).

So that’s what’s on the line on Saturday. Bragging rights between bitter rivals. A line in the sand in what will likely be fierce recruiting battles for years to come. And an inside track at a date with Alabama in Atlanta.

So who will pull it out on Saturday?

Statistical Profiles

If you just look at the surface numbers, Georgia looks like they will win this game.

The Bulldogs have the advantage on offense versus Florida. While the Gators offense has been very good, Georgia’s offense has been elite. Of course, there is a caveat here.

The Gators have played teams with an average defensive rank of 58.5 in yards per play allowed compared to 71.8 for Georgia. The best three defensive teams Florida has played are Mississippi State (10th in yards per play allowed), Kentucky (14th) and LSU (30th).

Conversely, the best three defenses Georgia has faced are LSU (30th), South Carolina (57th) and Middle Tennessee State (58th). With such a disparity between the schedules, it shouldn’t be a surprise that Florida ranks slightly worse than Georgia.

Indeed, the chart below bears this out. Georgia clearly appears to have a higher top gear with two games where the Bulldogs averaged over 8 yards per play.

Florida has been much more consistent with a relationship between the quality of defense faced and the effectiveness of its offense related almost linearly.

Georgia’s two outliers were against Vanderbilt and Middle Tennessee State. Clearly the Bulldogs are significantly more talented than both teams. Once they played teams of closer talent (LSU, South Carolina), Georgia fell right back onto the same line as Florida, indicating that these offenses are essentially equivalent.

Additionally, I went into great detail about Jake Fromm earlier in the week. In that piece, I mentioned that Fromm has played significantly worse away from Athens. The interesting thing is that Feleipe Franks has played way better away from Gainesville.

Indeed, Franks has averaged almost the exact same yards per attempt on the road compared to Fromm and has not been sacked as often. By YAR, Fromm has been better (because he has thrown more and run less than Franks) but Franks has had a slightly higher QB rating. Both QBs have thrown five TDs on the road but Franks only has two INTs versus four for Fromm.

This doesn’t suggest that Franks is better than Fromm. But it does suggest that to say that Georgia has a significant advantage at QB in this particular game is a stretch. It seems that way because of the egg Florida laid against Georgia last year exacerbates what we think of each QB. But clearly Franks in 2018 is not the same player as Franks in 2017.

On the defensive side of the ball, these teams are just about equivalent as well.

Both defenses are ranked similarly overall in yards per play. Georgia is better against the pass and Florida is better against the run.

Neither team has played fantastic offenses. The best offense Georgia played against was Missouri and the best offense Florida played against was Mississippi State. Both defenses will be tested Saturday by the best opposing unit they’ve played thus far.

One place where Florida does have a major advantage on defense is the defensive line. Defensive ends Jachai Polite and Jabari Zuniga and linebacker Vosean Joseph have combined for 24.5 tackles for loss and 14.5 sacks. Georgia – as a team – only has 28 tackles for loss and 9 sacks.

That means that on a per-play basis, Florida’s defense is more explosive. That’s why the Gators hold the advantage in defensive turnovers versus Georgia by an 18 to 9. Additionally, that lack of explosiveness also likely explains why Georgia’s defense has struggled against the run.

Film Analysis

One of the reasons I was down on Florida’s defense this year was that the linebackers had so much trouble staying in their gaps last season and early in this one. When looking at the Bulldogs’ defensive performance against LSU, a lack of discipline – especially but not limited to linebacker – jumped off the screen.

On this play, look at linebacker Monty Rice (#32). Rice doesn’t flow towards the ball at all when it is handed off to the LSU running back. It almost looks like he is shifting right in case LSU QB Joe Burrow keeps the ball on a run. But that’s not his job. That is the job of the defensive end to not crash to tackle the running back, which he does. But since Rice doesn’t move towards the play at all, Nick Brossette (#4) runs right through a hole that Rice was supposed to fill.

But it wasn’t just Rice.

On this play, linebacker Natrez Patrick (#6) does the exact opposite of Rice. He overruns the play by such a significant amount that there is an enormous cutback lane for the LSU back. Patrick doesn’t make contact with the back until he’s more than 10 yards downfield.

And Juwan Taylor (#44) got in on the act as well.

Taylor actually played this play correctly. He just didn’t have the speed to get to the running back and make the play. I say this because he didn’t get blocked on the play. LSU guard Saadiq Charles (#77) doesn’t get out fast enough to block Taylor. But Taylor still isn’t able to get to the running back to make the tackle.

LSU took advantage of this later in the game as well, this time using a pitch to get to the outside. Again, Taylor was unable to make the tackle as running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire beats him to the sideline and nearly scores on the play.

If Patrick and Rice aren’t in the right hole and Taylor isn’t fast enough to protect the edge, that’s a place where Florida can definitely attack in multiple ways.

Mullen has a way to exploit these weaknesses that he’s shown already this season. The first is to employ a play that has become much more a part of the offense recently.

This is a reverse to wide receiver Kadarius Toney against Vanderbilt. This takes advantage of overpursuit by linebackers and safeties and in a situation where the linebackers get out of position will almost always lead to a big play, especially if the defensive line isn’t getting any push.

Interestingly, Mullen made an adjustment to this play against Vanderbilt by having two backs in the backfield. This is going to be really difficult for the Georgia linebackers to defend because it could be a hand-off to Scarlett (#25), a screen pass to Pierce (#27) or a reverse to Toney (#4).

If Georgia has Taylor on the field and he continues to be unable to stop runs on the edge, the Bulldogs will also likely struggle.

On this play – which was really successful against LSU – Florida fakes the dive play to Perine and then runs an option to the outside. The defensive end’s responsibility is to make Franks give up the ball. But if he does that, a linebacker has to get to the outside to make the tackle or a corner has to get off a block to make a play.

Were I Kirby Smart, I would instruct my defensive end to allow Franks to run and to take away Perine. But that’s a really difficult instinct to ignore when the QB is right in front of you with the ball. Also, if Mullen runs the play in a two-back set as shown above, the defensive end may also get caught crashing which opens up the play even more.

On this play, LSU runs a read-option and the Georgia defensive end crashes hard. Both linebackers flow towards the running back as well, leaving a gaping hole for Joe Burrow to run through. He then fakes out safety Richard Lecounte to turn the run into a truly explosive play.

And then, once the linebackers start racing outside to protect against big plays outside, Mullen has a counter to that as well.

If you are up against linebackers who are overpursuing, the reverse is one way to counter that. But it is a slowly developing play that can open your offense open to a big loss. But another way to counter overpursuit is to flow in one direction and then pitch to the tight end right back up the middle.

We haven’t seen this play much this year so far. Much of that is because Florida’s offensive line has struggled right up the gut but it is also because Florida has been slowly building misdirection into its offense. I would expect to see this play on a key third-and-4 at some point in the game just because of the ability to exploit Georgia’s linebackers.

The point of all of this is that Georgia has a clear weakness and Mullen has a way to exploit the Bulldogs no matter who they decide to play. And you can’t just say that weakness at linebacker just arose against LSU because Richard Lecounte and J.R. Reed are Georgia’s leading tacklers and they are both defensive backs. That’s not a good sign for any defense.

The lack of discipline does not just show up at the linebacker position.

At the snap, you see defensive back Tyson Campbell (#3) and safety J.R. Reed (#20) both come up to stop the run, which gives Georgia nine men in the box. The LSU tight end releases along with the two wide receivers. That means Georgia has two defenders for three receivers.

You’re not going to find an easier completion.

So maybe Georgia should just rush four and sit back in coverage?

They tried that here against the Tigers. There is absolutely no pressure on Joe Burrow (remember their sack and TFL percentages from up above). Burrow is able to identify that the Georgia safety came up into a zone instead of dropping outside. The result is one-on-one coverage on the outside and a long completion.

Takeaway

A lot of people expect this game to be close. I’m not one of them.

Most people who’ve read my work all year would think that means that I’m going with Georgia. But LSU showed a blueprint to beat Georgia last week.

It wasn’t a coincidence that the Tigers dominated the Bulldogs. They exploited clear weaknesses on the Georgia defense, and as I showed earlier this week they were able to force Fromm to struggle through showing multiple coverages.

Additionally, the way to get Florida QB Feleipe Franks to struggle is to put him under pressure. Georgia has not shown the ability to get consistent pressure on the QB while Florida has shown an ability to do so all season. That means that Florida likely wins the turnover battle.

Georgia’s linebackers are a weakness that Florida is going to be able to exploit in the running game. Mullen has a counter for anything that Smart will throw at him, and having weaknesses at linebacker forces a defense to play simpler coverages on the back end.

This again benefits Florida because Franks struggles when coverages change post-snap. But if the linebackers are struggling, masking coverages becomes more difficult. That means Franks will be able to trust his pre-snap reads, which is something that he does very well.

Is it possible that Fromm goes nuts and lights up the Florida defense? Georgia does appear to have a higher top gear and so could put Florida in a hole early.

But I don’t expect that to happen. Instead, I expect both teams to feel each other out early but then for Florida to take control up-front in the second quarter. Georgia will have to go away from the run and will open up Fromm to pressure and a turnover in the second half that breaks the game open.

Dan Mullen has exceeded my expectation all year long. This time, he’s going to exceed everyone else’s.

Florida wins, 34-17.

Predictions this season: 3-4 straight up, 2-5 ATS

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