Missouri is coming to Gainesville this weekend as Florida looks to rebound coming off a tough loss to Georgia.
Of course, Missouri is coming off its own tough loss to Kentucky. The Tigers had the opportunity to knock-off a top-12 team and potentially reassert itself for a significant bowl game. Instead, they now have to go on the road against another good opponent with the Music City Bowl on the horizon if they can win out.
You have to wonder whether the Tigers will be a little bit listless coming into the Swamp. Of course, you could wonder the same thing about the Gators.
Florida vs. Missouri Preview
But if we look at the statistical profiles of both teams, this one ends up pretty simple.
Key metrics for Florida and Missouri thus far in 2018. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
Based on yards per play gained, yards per pass and yards per rush, the offenses are remarkably similar. The only place that Missouri beats Florida is in points per game, but that is because the Tigers average almost 79 plays per game on offense compared to 66 for Florida.
The Tigers aren’t any more efficient than Florida, they just play faster.
That’s a far cry from last season when Missouri ranked 8th in yards per play and yards per pass attempt and 24th in yards per rush.
The only real change is that Derek Dooley is the offensive coordinator instead of Josh Heupel. In his six years as a head coach, Dooley’s offenses at Lousiana Tech and Tennessee averaged a ranking of 72nd in yards per play.
Before the season, I would have told you that Missouri had a major advantage at quarterback over Florida. That hasn’t been the case thus far in 2018.
2018 statistics for Feleipe Franks and Drew Lock. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
Based on QB rating, Missouri QB Drew Lock and Florida QB Feleipe Franks have been identical. The same is true for yards above replacement (YAR), where Lock is slightly ahead just because he has run less often than Franks. But this isn’t even close to the mismatch that it looked like coming into the season.
In Heupel’s offense last season, Missouri’s three leading receivers on offense were wide receivers (J’Mon Moore, Johnathan Johnson and Emanuel Hall) and each averaged over 16.6 yards per catch. This year’s leading receiver is a tight end – Albert Okwuegbunam – who is averaging 10.8 yards per catch. Moore is gone in 2018, but Johnson and Hall’s numbers are way down this season at the expense of less efficient throws to Okwuegbunam.
Okwuegbunam is a good player. But sacrificing a 20-yard throw to Hall in order to hit Okwuegbunam over the middle just isn’t a good use of Lock. The only way that makes sense is if Lock were to see a significant increase in completion percentage by limiting his throws downfield.
His completion percentage has increased to 60.6 percent, up 2.8 percent from 2017. But if you eliminate games against Tennessee-Martin and Wyoming, that drops to 56.0 with an average of 7.0 yards per attempt. The transition to Dooley has not gone well for Lock.
The real mismatch in this game is on the defensive side of the ball. Whether you look at scoring defense, yardage allowed per play, or yards allowed through the air, Missouri is significantly worse than Florida. The only place where Missouri has been better is against the run, but much of that is likely because teams are throwing against the Tigers so often that they don’t worry too much about running the ball.
Missouri’s defense does have 49 tackles for loss, indicating that the Tigers are going to be able to force the Gators to put the ball in Franks’ hands. So long as last week’s performance doesn’t linger for Franks, Florida is going to be able to move the ball.
And if the Gators can move the ball, that’s going to force the game to move at Florida’s pace. Combine that with Missouri’s lack of explosion on offense this season and Vosean Joseph’s ability to guard tight ends in coverage (Isaac Nauta last week excluded), and Florida should be able to win the game.
And if Missouri comes in still stinging from last week’s loss to Kentucky, things could get out of hand early.
Florida wins, 31-10.
Predictions this season: 3-5 straight up, 2-6 ATS
Brian Edgerton
So good!! Love your stuff
Clifford B Rimler
Thanks Will. After Georgia, the Gators have to listen to Coach Mullen, practice, and take it out on the next team. That is what Georgia did.
Alisa
The only thing that concerns me about this game is your prediction percentage for this year Will!
Will Miles
Me too.
artic foux
good stuff will. this one is scary, but if we can effectively run/outside short throws to extend drives and eat clock, and keep franks from “pouting” too much and just play to the game plane, we win by a decent amount. will be interesting to see if they use Chauncey to cover Albert O more instead of vosean /other LB and use LBs to add to rush and pressure Lock. Go Gators – enjoy the game – I think you mentioned you were coming for this one.
Jack
The Gators had better be able to run better than indicated in the Missouri stats you quote. If Missouri’s tackles for loss translate to a pass rush on Franks we could be in for a difficult game.
Will Miles
They haven’t translated in a pass rush much thus far in 2018.
Gern blanston
Mizzu held Kentucky to less than 100 rushing but gave up 280 through the air . If the gators run the same conservative avoid losing offense vs the Tigers they will lose . They should be able to pass at will . I was as disappointed in the play calling as the play of franks . Although I thought franks deteriorated into the bad attitude QB when things aren’t going well he was last year . Mullen seems to coach scared after a wide open pass doesn’t work or after an int .
Gern blanston
If gators throw for less than 250 the lose
Gern
I hope the crowd is as supportive as the Lsu game ! If the crowd is flat the gators lose