Ah yes, November is here. Temperatures in Florida have finally dipped below 90 degrees, college football is on several days each week, and political advertising invaded every quiet moment of our lives… just to make sure we know that the other guy REALLY hates kittens.
But for we Floridian football fans savvy enough to avoid the distractions of nice weather, actual football, and good ole’ ‘Merican politics, recruiting looms larger by the day. The early signing period (December 19-21) is rapidly approaching and optimism is spiking as teams narrow their list of prospects for the final lap.
As teams gear up for the all-important closing effort to their 2019 recruiting classes, there is one statement I hear more each day from Gator, Nole, and Cane fans alike: “We’re going to land a top-10 recruiting class. Book it.”. The statement rings with regal confidence, dreams of an imminent return to glory, and seems to be based at least in part upon credible reports of recruiting trail success.
As convincing as the claim is however, there’s usually not much evidence provided in support of it, except for the constant assurance that “You don’t know what’s coming!”. And while that may be, I’m writing this article to provide fans of Florida’s Big 3 with some factual clarity on their schools’ chances of a top-10 class.
Before we get started however, here are a few disclaimers:
Disclaimer 1 – A top-10 ranking shouldn’t be viewed as the general pass/fail standard for any of the big-3 schools. There is a lot more to consider than that.
Disclaimer 2 – This article is not intended to be yet another “inside info” piece with better-than-the-other-guy’s predictions on where players will choose to play ball. I realize that Crystal Ball projections aren’t accurate predictors and that things change. Instead, think of it as a filter for all of those other updates you read or hear elsewhere.
Disclaimer 3 – This article uses the 247 composite ratings and rankings as its standard, since they factor in each of the major recruiting services (Rivals, 247, ESPN). This provides a stronger, aggregated standard that insulates against error or bias.
What history says it will take to reach the top-10
Now, let’s get down to business. You want a top-10 class. People you trust are telling you a top-10 class is inbound for the school you love. But what does that actually take from a class score perspective? Well, recent history is a common-sense place to start:
- Last year, for the class of 2018, the 10th place class (Notre Dame) had a class score of 268.86.
- The average score of 10th place classes over the past-5 recruiting cycles is 266.25.
- The average score of 10th place classes over the past-10 recruiting cycles is 266.39.
Noticing a pattern here? Sure, there is fluctuation from year to year. In 2017 for example, the 10th place recruiting class only required a point total of 251.23. But this was a bit abnormal, as it was the 1st time since 2007 that a class score of less than 262 points achieved a top-10 ranking.
In fact, the 10th place class has finished with a score in the 260’s in 7 of the past 10 years (with the one aforementioned class finishing at 251 and two others finishing above 270). So, based on history, the most likely outcome is for the number 10 class to fall somewhere pretty close to the recent average of 266 points. But it’s a little hard to estimate exactly what point total will be required this year based on history alone, so let’s now take a look at the current top-10:
What insight can we gain from current rankings?
- Alabama – 21 commits – 287.19
- Texas A&M – 24 commits – 285.25
- Georgia – 17 commits – 275.09
- Oregon – 22 commits – 273.72
- Oklahoma – 19 commits – 269.54
- Clemson – 24 commits – 268.86
- Texas – 20 commits – 266.27
- LSU – 19 commits – 260.72
- Michigan – 24 commits – 260.40
- FSU – 16 commits – 252.43
22. Miami – 17 commits – 218.98
23. UF – 15 commits – 216.97
As you can see from the list, 7 of the current top-10 classes have already amassed 266 or more points, with only two of them featuring more than 22 current commits (Texas A&M & Clemson). Depending on the scholarship situations at each school, this means several of those schools are likely to keep adding players (and therefore increasing their scores). In fact, the current number one team in the rankings, Alabama, is likely to take as many prospects as they want, then have the NCAA retroactively change the rules accordingly.
Ok, I’m kidding about Bama… well… mostly. The serious takeaway here is that several of those top-7 teams aren’t done and will likely achieve class scores of 275-300 points or more. This is the top-tier of recruiting’s current alpha-dogs, while several other non-state-of-Florida teams are lurking which have significant top-10 potential. Among those are:
- LSU – With only 19 commits, 260.72 points, and a current ranking of 8th, the Tigers already enjoy a strong position. But with plenty of on-field buzz and several high-profile targets left on its board (including 5-star RB & recent UGA decommitment John Emery Jr), Orgeron’s bunch should cement their top-10 position and continue to ascend as the cycle concludes.
- Ohio State – One of the year’s biggest recruiting wildcards, the Buckeyes currently sit with only 14 commitments, but such high per-recruit quality that they currently rank 15th with a score of 243.12. They are considered the leaders for 5-star DE Zach Harrison and 4-star DT D’Von Ellies, landing both of whom would give Ohio State a class score of 262.67 with only 16 recruits! IF Meyer stays and the current brainpains off-field issues clear, they should easily end up with at least 265-275 points and a top-10 ranking. But that’s a big if. Should Meyer depart or scandal pressure mount, the class could take a big hit. Florida DB prospect Jordan Battle could be a prime target to head elsewhere at that point, with Miami and Florida among his possible destinations.
- Michigan – With 23 commitments, ranked 9th, and 259.62 points, the Wolverines are probably almost done, but they remain the 247 Sports Crystal Ball favorites to land both 4-star OL Trevor Keegan & 3-star WR Trevon Raphael. If Michigan lands those two prospects to cap off it’s 2019 class, it’s score would increase to 265.58
- USC – Off to a 4-4 start and currently struggling on the recruiting trail, USC sits with 14 commitments, 207.91 points, and a lowly 27th national ranking. But USC is still a dominant force in California recruiting, which could propel them to surprising heights in the 2019 rankings by the time the smoke clears. The right handful of prospects, including guys like 5-stars Bru McCoy & Kyle Ford, along with 4-stars Sean Rhyan and Ty Robinson would lift their score to 256.39 (with only 18 prospects). And don’t forget, they’ve still got home-field advantage for the nation’s top prospect, Kayvon Thibodeaux. I’m not predicting that things come together to make USC the nation’s finish line recruiting surprise, but fans would be wise to keep an eye on them down the stretch.
In addition to the teams profiled above, each team currently ranked 11-14 (Notre Dame, Auburn, Penn State, & Tennessee) could push higher by National Signing Day. And of course, there’s always the outside chance that an unexpected team like Stanford (currently ranked 28th with only 13 commits but a 4-star per player average) could come from nowhere to make the top-10.
Regardless of how it shakes out, it’s pretty clear that there are at least 10, but possibly even more teams that will finish with a score right at 266 point or higher. Based on this and our previous look at recent history, I’d say it’s safe to consider 266 a MINIMUM threshold to aim for when gauging your team’s chances of cracking the top-10. With that in mind, it’s time to examine the top-10 chances of Florida’s Big 3.
The chances of the Big 3’s other 2
In the post-Steve Spurrier era (2002-present), there has never been a year when UF, FSU, and Miami all finished outside the top-10 in composite recruiting class rankings (2018 came the closest, when Miami finished 8th, FSU finished 11th, and UF finished 14th).
Will this be a history making year where they all fail to achieve the mark? Or will 2019 be the first class since 2012 where each of the three finish inside the top-10 in the same cycle? As we approach the first of two finish lines for the class of 2019 (Early National Signing Period is December 19-21 of 2018 & Traditional National Signing Day is February 6 of 2019), I expect at least one of Florida’s “Big 3” to achieve a top-ten class ranking, but it’s possible that none do, or that more than one does.
Miami is currently ranked 19th with a class score of 218.98 and 17 commits
Reviewing their targets list makes me think Miami is trending in the wrong direction at the moment:
- 5-star OL Evan Neal seems to be trending toward Alabama
- 4-star DB Tyrique Stevenson is generally viewed to be leaning toward the Georgia bagmen Bulldogs
- 4-star TE Keon Zipperer & 4-star OLB Lloyd Summerall appear to be UF leans
- 4-star DT Tyler Davis is trending to Clemson
- 4-star RB commit Kenny McIntosh may now be in Georgia’s crosshairs
- 4-star DE JJ Weaver is leaning toward Kentucky, if the crystal ball is to be believed
Those appear to be the primary blue-chip targets on Miami’ radar at the moment. If the above names head elsewhere and Miami instead lands four more 3-stars, they likely won’t crack the top-10.
From a points perspective, adding four 3-stars to finish the class would only raise the score to about 262 points. That score was good for 13th last year and an average of 12th over the past 5 cycles. So, Miami needs to hold on to their current commits, reverse the reported momentum for some of the prospects listed above, or work on pulling some late flips if they are to make a serious run at the top-10.
But what if things DO take a positive turn for Miami on the recruiting trail at the finish line?
They are a named contender for 5-star WR (and recent UGA decommitment) Jadon Haselwood, while they may also still lead for both 4-star RB Mark-Antony Richards and 4-star DE Khris Bogle. Adding each of these three, then riding home-field advantage to land Tyrique Stevenson (who plays at Miami Southridge HS) would give the Canes a class score of 264.30. Things may be trending poorly for them at the moment, but recruiting is a roller coaster ride.
The clock is ticking though…
FSU is currently ranked 10th with a score of 252.43 and 16 commits
Over in the panhandle, FSU’s recruiting effort is currently hampered due to a facilities safety issue. Apparently, the Noles can’t allow visiting recruits onto the field at Doak Campbell, because Clemson’s offensive players continue to sprint up and down the field (Sorry Noles, I couldn’t help myself).
In all seriousness, FSU’s class sits in a strong position right now at 10th, with room to push higher. The Noles could enter rare territory however, should they be unable to knock off one of the three ranked opponents they face to close the season. Having already lost 5 games by an average of 22.6 points each, losing out could create such a funk that not even the “it’s the last guy’s fault” graces will protect Taggart’s bump class efforts.
History shows that on-field results have minimal impact on bump-cycle recruiting… but there’s a limit to everything. It’s easy to explain away struggles and sell recruits on how badly they’re needed, so long as you look competent. Whether it’s his fault or not, Taggart is struggling mightily. As a result, FSU’s current top-10 class, and their nicely assembled board, should be considered both vulnerable and volatile.
In view of the on-field struggles and already-top-10 ranking, FSU’s efforts have to start with holding on to their current commits. This includes:
- Akeem Dent (5-star who may be flirting with Alabama)
- Sam Howell (4-star QB who may opt to look around)
- Quashon Fuller (4-star SDE who seems iffy on his commitment)
- Derick Hunter (4-star SDE & seems very likely to end up elsewhere)
This list isn’t intended to forecast doom for FSU, as they could reasonably continue moving upward, but losing only Fuller and Hunter (the lowest rated 2 of the aforementioned 4) would lower FSU’s class score to 239.35. This would leave them facing a significant climb to the 266 range they’d likely need to finish in the top-10.
On the positive side, they’ve long been rumored to be a leader in the clubhouse for the nation’s top prospect, California DE Kayvon Thibodeaux (but Oregon is trending). Holding on to both Fuller and Hunter, then adding Thibodeaux would elevate their class score to 265.29, putting them on the doorstep. Further adding 4-star OL William Putnam and 4-star Athlete Raymond Woodie (both of whom are trending toward FSU in the 247 Crystal Ball projection) would put FSU at a class score of 276.02 with only 19 commitments. This would likely position FSU well-within the top-10 and perhaps even allow them to threaten the top-5.
Conclusion to Part 1
As we wrap up Part 1 in our look at the Big 3’s chances at the top-10, remember that recent history suggests a number 10 class score somewhere close to 266 points (but with the possibility of an outlier fluctuation). Also remember that current class rankings suggest that an unusually low point threshold to make the top-10 is unlikely this year. And remember that both Miami and FSU are trending in the wrong direction at this point, but both still carry top-10 class potential.
But above all else, understand that recruiting is crazy and momentum-shifting things happen down the stretch. Like I mentioned before, this isn’t a prediction article, it’s a framework, based on history and current statistics, to help you understand the top-10 potential of Florida’s Big 3. Much will change in the next few months as recruiting twists and turns, but I’m betting that the statistical implications mentioned above will not.
In Part 2 of this examination, I’ll turn my attention to the 2019 recruiting class of the Florida Gators and provide you with a more in-depth analysis of what it will take to reach this year’s top-10. This will include specific mock-class scenarios and commentary on which positions could be key in reaching the mark.
Go Gators… unless you’re a Nole or a Cane. In that case, thanks for reading… and Go Gators!