Let me be honest. I have no idea what to expect from Florida against South Carolina this Saturday.
But you don’t either.
It is completely possible that the team comes out ticked off at the losses to Georgia and Missouri and takes it out on the Gamecocks. But I’d be more convinced of that if the players and coaches were talking about the actual game on Saturday.
Instead, Dan Mullen used the last couple minutes of his post-game presser after Missouri to gripe about empty seats in the student section. You can get away with that kind of rhetoric in front of die-hards during the offseason speaking tour. It’s pretty ballsy to bring it up again after your team just got dismantled at home against a 4-4 team.
Issues with the home fans were echoed by offensive line coach John Hevesy. And now Chauncey Gardner-Johnson has taken to Twitter to do the same.
It’s True … crazy to see a stadium half full but they support us through all kinds of weather right ?!?! (Mainly the student section be half empty) smh https://t.co/b3Gsqn3bey
— C.J. Gardner-Johnson (@CGJXXIII) November 9, 2018
They may have a point. You may agree with them. Perhaps the fans should show up and support the team. I happen to believe that they have, but you’re entitled to your opinion.
The problem is, the fans had nothing to do with this.
Or this.
Or this.
The hard truth is that the team could’ve played in an empty Swamp and it wouldn’t have mattered. Missouri dominated up-front on both sides of the ball, had much better QB play and was much more aggressive in all phases of the game.
Hell, Florida’s punter got two personal foul penalties and nearly got ejected for targeting.
The good news is that it’s only one game. South Carolina isn’t exactly a juggernaut, coming in with a 5-3 record and significant flaws on both sides of the ball. The Gamecocks are also hurting.
Florida Offense vs. South Carolina Defense
A cursory glance at the injury report shows 18 players who are either out or questionable with two as probable. Defensive backs Nick Harvey, Jamyest Williams, Jamel Cook, Javon Charleston, Caleb Kinlaw, J.T. Ibe and Tavyn Jackson are all on the “out” list. That’s a lot of attrition at one position.
But Florida just played a team that came into the game ranked 100th in yards per pass allowed at 8.6. The Gators promptly averaged 5.3, and that was only after the now injured Kyle Trask (7.0) replaced the ineffective Feleipe Franks (3.8).
Teams are clearly squeezing the short routes against Florida. SEC Network showed a graphic to open up the broadcast against Missouri that nine of Franks’ 13 completions against Georgia were behind the line of scrimmage. Not only that, but 11 of his 21 attempts were behind the line of scrimmage.
The Tigers had clearly paid attention.
Look at the Missouri corner. There is zero concern that he might get beat off the line by Josh Hammond. The play is designed to be a screen pass and so the offensive line lets the pressure get to Franks. He throws inaccurately, but that’s probably for the best as Hammond has nowhere to go.
This wasn’t isolated, as every time Florida tried to throw the short passes that were a staple against Mississippi State, Missouri was ready. There’s a really effective way to beat this kind of press coverage – go over it.
On this play, Missouri has all 11 defenders within six yards of the line of scrimmage at the snap. He has to hit this throw, or at least give his receiver a chance to fight for it. It doesn’t help him though that his receiver is actually a tight end (Kyle Pitts, #84). But Pitts is open and Franks has to hit him.
But you can make Franks’ job easier if you give him a wide receiver to throw to against this coverage. Preferably you’d want a receiver who can create separation and present an open target for Franks.
Missouri played press coverage on Kadarius Toney (#4) on this play. But Toney is able to create separation, both because he’s really skilled but also because he’s a threat to go past the corner. Franks delivers a rope (note: no touch needed) and it was one of Florida’s three explosive plays on the day.
The good news for Florida is that they should have an easier time moving the ball against South Carolina. While Missouri is strong against the run, the Gamecocks are ranked 75th, allowing 4.4 yards per rush. If – as I suggested earlier this week – Mullen decides to emphasize Emory Jones or Toney in the run game, Florida should be able to put the offense in better third-down situations.
The bad news is that while South Carolina may be depleted in the secondary, they have proven to be able to pressure the QB. The Gamecocks average 1.9 sacks, 7.1 tackles for loss and 3 QB pressures per game. They have been a lot more consistent than Florida’s defense as well, with a sack in every game this year except against Kentucky (but they did have 10 TFL in that game).
All QBs struggle to be accurate when under pressure. Feleipe Franks is no different, but Franks seems to really struggle when there’s any kind of commotion in the pocket. That’s critical because accuracy has been an indicator of success for Franks (and Florida’s offense) this season.
In Florida losses, he is only completing 48.1 percent of his throws for 5.2 yards per throw. In wins, that percentage is 59.7 for an average of 8.2 yards per attempt. He’s running the ball an average of 7.3 times per game regardless, so it really does come down to being more accurate.
Florida should be able to move the ball much better because of its run game, particularly if it uses the QB more in that capacity. But at the end of the day, Franks is going to have to hit some throws deep to loosen things up. If he can’t, it’s going to be an ugly day again for the Florida offense.
Florida Defense vs. South Carolina Offense
The Gators defense has struggled a lot the past two weeks.
After acquitting itself really well in the first half against Georgia (save the first and last drive of the half), the Gators proceeded to get gashed repeatedly against the Bulldogs in the second half and all game long against Missouri.
The common theme has been blown coverages. I already showed the two most egregious ones up above, but this one against Georgia is pretty bad.
Vosean Joseph is the culprit here, as he gets lost and allows Isaac Nauta to get out into his route with nobody covering him. Coincidently, this is a similar thing that happened to Joseph on the touchdown pass to Albert Okwuegbunam that put Missouri up 14-3.
Joseph isn’t the only one who is responsible for the broken coverages. He just stands out because he’s being put in a really difficult situation. If you get no push up-front, the linebackers have to cheat up. When they cheat up, they’re susceptible to passes down the seam. If they start guessing (as it appears Joseph is prone to do), it’s game over.
It’s not a coincidence that Missouri averaged 7.4 yards per rush in the first half (while only averaging 6.0 through the air) and then came out and averaged 12.5 yards per pass in the third quarter. Florida had to bring up extra men to stop the run, which left its corners in one-on-one coverage. Lock was good enough to make them pay.
But the last two games do provide a little bit of hope. Jake Fromm and Drew Lock are top-tier SEC QBs. Jake Bentley is not. He played pretty well his freshman season, but hasn’t really improved at all since then.
If we examine common opponents for Florida and South Carolina using yards above replacement (YAR), Bentley played worse against Georgia (-1.81 to -1.56 for Franks), Kentucky (-1.31 to -0.80) but better against Tennessee (2.06 to 0.81) and Vanderbilt (1.60 to 0.23).
So it appears that against bad defenses, Bentley can excel. But when defenses get tough, he falls apart in a similar manner to Franks. The difference is the pressure that Bentley saw in those four games. The Gamecocks gave up 8 sacks, 25 tackles for loss and 10 QB hurries. Conversely, Florida gave up 6 sacks, 14 tackles for loss and 8 QB hurries against those same teams.
That doesn’t seem like a huge deal, but I do think it points out a major advantage for Florida. The Gators had 11 sacks and 19 tackles for loss against Mississippi State and LSU but only 3 sacks and 13 tackles for loss against Vanderbilt, Georgia and Missouri.
South Carolina’s offense is ranked 36th in yards per play gained. Missouri was 38th coming into last week’s game. Florida has now fallen to 45th in yards per play allowed after the past two games.
This matchup really comes down to whether you think Jake Bentley and South Carolina’s offensive line wins or whether Florida’s defense – specifically Jabari Zuniga and Jachai Polite – can get pressure.
Prediction
I’ve been wrong all year so you’re probably better off betting against me. But the two keys that I have identified are Feleipe Franks throwing accurately downfield and Florida getting consistent pressure.
Neither of those has happened in three weeks.
If we look at YAR gained and allowed for each team, South Carolina grades out slightly better (ΔYAR of 5.8 to 2.2). I still think the teams are roughly equivalent, and in most cases that would mean I’d take the home team.
But Florida has struggled twice against decent, but not spectacular, teams at home. There’s just no excuse for the Gators to get outclassed by Kentucky or Missouri at home, let alone both.
But to believe that will happen three times in a season – for a team that excelled so strongly when challenged on the road – just doesn’t sit well with me.
I’m not comfortable going with Franks in this one, but I don’t like Bentley against the Gators defensive line either.
That means a bet on the Gators is a bet that Mullen will be able to get them focused on the task at hand and motivated regardless of who or how many fans are in the stands. I think he gets it done.
Florida wins, 24-21.
Predictions this season: 3-6 straight up, 2-7 ATS