Florida State Hate Week is finally here, Gator Nation. For the first time in the last five years, the state’s bragging rights could move to Gainesville. The Gators are 8-3 with a signature win over No. 7 LSU. The Noles are 5-6 with a “resilient”, come from behind win over unranked Boston College.
A win for Florida could put Mullen’s squad in a New Year’s Six bowl, while an FSU loss would end the Seminoles’ 36-year streak of appearing in a bowl game. A lot is on the line for both teams. Hate Week is most definitely in full swing. But, with a hyped-up FSU team, the Gators need to show up to Doak with some swagger.
The Past
In the past eight years, Florida has one win to its name: 37-26 in Tallahassee in 2012. For the last five years, FSU has maintained the W. In those five matchups, FSU was ranked four times compared to twice for Florida. In 2015, the Gators (#10) were ranked higher than the Noles (#14). The last time Florida graded out higher was for the 2012 win (#4 compared to #10).
Last season’s game was the first time neither team was ranked since 2011. Florida State won decisively both times.
The Present
Long story short, Florida fans (and players) should not take Florida State’s losing record lightly. No matter how the Noles play against other teams throughout the season, they’re always ready to play the Gators. But, the way the season is going, Florida looks poised to win.
Both teams have had their fair shares of cupcake games and high-caliber matchups this season. Let’s take a look at each team’s regular season stats.
Now… what do these wins and losses mean?
cupcakes
Cupcake games are not supposed to be more than paid-for wins and a chance to dazzle on the field. Florida dominated cupcakes, outscoring its three opponents 164-26. On the other hand, Florida State is beating its cupcakes like ACC teams. The Noles outscored two cupcakes in Samford and Northern Illinois 73-45.
conference wins
The SEC just means more, right? But, the ACC ain’t too shabby either. Florida doesn’t have to play Alabama, whereas FSU “played” Clemson. (They did play, but 59-10??) The Gators are 5-3 in their conference and the Noles are 3-5 in theirs, thanks to last-second wins over Louisville and Boston College.
Florida is outscoring SEC opponents 209-205. Nothing to write home about, although the numbers are negatively skewed after back-to-back blowouts by Georgia and Missouri. But, Florida State is getting outscored 229-163. So, while the Gators are averaging 26 ppg in the SEC, FSU only scores 20 in the ACC. Naturally, Florida is -6.0 on the money line this week.
biggest wins
Florida’s most important win this year was over LSU.
Ask anyone, even players! Last week, redshirt senior RJ Raymond referenced the win over the Tigers last week as part of the arbitrary players vs. fans media circus, saying “That was the loudest I’ve ever heard the Swamp in my five years here.”
Everything fell into place for, dare I say it, the Gator Standard. The offense was fiery and the defense managed two picks off of Joe Burrow, who had not thrown one before the Gator game. Put simply, Florida has the ability to do amazing things when the entire team locks in.
This season, the Noles’ marquee win came last week. Unfortunately for Florida, that is just fuel for a generally overrated team before heading into an important game. However, it was no dominating win. It took a 74-yard bomb with two minutes left in the fourth quarter to win 22-21. But, a win over a ranked team is a win over a ranked team. And FSU had home-field advantage, like they will this weekend.
Off the Field Input
Doak is like the Swamp in the way that the environment proves to be oppressive for opponents. Dan Mullen is prepared for the insufferably annoying War Chant, blasting it throughout the week in practice as a motivator. For reference, he mixed Rocky Top into Florida’s practice playlist during Tennessee week and the Gators left Neyland with a 47-21 win. He also incessantly rang cowbells during Mississippi State week. Florida came out on top 13-6 in Starkville. Drowning out the noise is one thing, but drowning out your thoughts is a whole other ballgame.
Attitude matters
Florida State is not a great or even really a good team this year. But, they will be ready for the Gators. Besides the five-game win streak on the Seminoles’ side, the team is confident every week. Add a ranked win and Home Sweet Doak to that equation, and you’ve got a pretty fired up team.
Florida is a bit streaky and hasn’t shown up for games that the team deems “in-the-bag” (i.e Kentucky and Mizzou). Chauncey Gardner-Johnson “guaranteed” a win over Kentucky and fell short on his promise. A number of players said Missouri was better than its record during the week leading up to that game, but the answers seemed more canned than raw.
One of the rawest moments of the year was when Josh Hammond admitted the team “felt like [it] didn’t have much to play for” after losing to Georgia. While that’s far from true now, as the Gators hold a #11 ranking in the CFP this week, it gives insight into Mac-era mentality.
Mullen is trying his hardest to get away from that, as he’s said he wants to “kick ass” in something as small as a thumb wrestle.
While National Championship dreams may be scrapped this season, kicking Florida State out of bowl eligibility for the first time in 37 years will probably taste just as sweet to the Gators.
Player’s Corner
gators
Thankfully, Florida seems super excited and ready to reclaim the state title. Besides the #SwamptheDoak movement many players are sharing via Instagram stories, the team is pretty chipper this week. Linebacker Vosean Joseph put out a pretty generic statement…
I need the Doak in Orange & Blue 🐊
— Vosean (@gloryboy_Sean) November 19, 2018
while tight end C’yontai Lewis was already itching to take the field last Sunday.
Got my bag packed for the game this weekend. Locked in this week. Let’s go brothers 💯🐊
— C'yontai Lewis (@idunklewis) November 19, 2018
Aside from a heightened social media presence, the players are also being vocal in postgame media.
Linebacker David Reese echoed Joseph, as he hopes to see more orange and blue than garnet and gold this weekend.
Running back La’Mical Perine and wide receiver Tyrie Cleveland say the team will be mindful of that New Year’s Six bowl. In fact, Cleveland went the extra mile to say he would be planted in front of the TV for the CFP rankings. (Gators are in contention, Cleve!)
Coach Mullen told the guys that he shouldn’t be the one to fire them up this week… the game should be enough.
seminoles
What? You thought the #DoSomething crowd wasn’t going to fire some spears?
Defensive back Stanford Samuels III said, “We can’t afford anything else but a win. So that’s all we talk about, we’re going to win next week and we’re going to beat the Gators and in good fashion.”
Quarterback Deondre Francois kind of slighted the Gators as well, basically saying Florida is not Miami. The Canes are 6-5, with losses to Georgia Tech, Duke, and Virginia. None of those teams are exactly the cream of the crop… but… ok.
Dan Mullen wants the Gators to “stay the hell off social media,” but maybe these fighting words will encourage Florida to #DoSomething big this weekend.
Final Thoughts
While nobody can predict what’s going to happen in this rivalry, some trends are evident. The biggest ones?
When Deondre Francois throws for 300+, FSU is 4-0. Florida’s season-high passing yards allowed was 250 in the Mizzou loss. Defense wins games.
The Gators are usually a fourth-quarter team. Against South Carolina, Florida scored 21 unanswered points for the come-from-behind win. In the second half against Vanderbilt, Gators outscored the ‘Dores 24-6. After halftime, Florida outscored LSU 13-9. If the team can generate enough steam after the half, a win looms near.
I’m picking the Gators. Besides the fact that Florida’s head coach actually calls the plays, I think the team will lock in-LSU style. Florida State may need the win, but the Gators want it. And they want it bad.