Grading the Gators 2019 recruiting class after National Signing Day

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National Signing Day has come and gone, and Florida has made its way up to ninth in the 247Sports composite rankings.

That’s quite an accomplishment for Dan Mullen, especially considering where he was earlier this summer. As someone who has expressed concern about where the class was at various points along the way this summer, I have to admit that this is a slightly better finish than I expected back in August.

Mullen finished this class with a flurry, adding seven of his top ten recruits since December 19, including three top-100 players. It’s a heck of a close, and sets up Florida to develop its way into being a real contender in the SEC.

Mullen has stated that the goal next year isn’t just to win a New Years Six bowl game, but to win the Peach Bowl again next year when it will be a Playoff Semifinal. The question is whether this class is good enough to get him there.

Historical Analysis

I’m having trouble figuring out what I think about this class. The reason is because in the time that recruiting rankings have really been around, no Florida coach has had a bump class quite like this.

Depending on how you slice the data, you can get it to tell just about whatever story you want.

For instance, if we measure Mullen compared to his peers in terms of how much they improved from their first year to their second year recruiting class, he falls short. The improvement of five slots is significant, but it is the lowest jump amongst any of the Gators previous five head coaches.

Regardless of that though, Mullen’s first two classes are clearly superior to those of Jim McElwain. But they are also inferior to Zook, Meyer and Muschamp, at least just by looking at national ranking.

However, there are ways to slice the data that make Mullen’s class compare quite favorably to those previous coaches.

If we just look at blue-chip recruits, Mullen rates out quite well. His 17 blue-chips (4 and 5-star recruits) is more than Ron Zook or Will Muschamp, and nearly double Jim McElwain’s 9 in 2016. Those 17 are all 4-star recruits, but that is a significant haul when compared to any Florida coach.

The distinction between the classes becomes more clear though when those blue-chip players are put into narrower bins.

Mullen has 13 top-300 players, but his distribution is much more even with four in the top-100, four from 101-200 and five from 201-300. Zook, Meyer and Muschamp’s classes were far more top-heavy. That was particularly true with Ron Zook’s class that included 12 top-100 players (and six 5-star players).

Using this metric, the difference between Mullen and McElwain’s bump classes is the five players ranked between 201-300. That is a significant number, and some of those players are sure to be significant contributors to future teams for Mullen. But the level of top-end talent for Mullen is much closer to McElwain than it is to his predecessors.

Whether this class is the bridge to Florida’s next SEC Championship will likely rest on what Mullen is able to get out of those five players.

The good news is that major contributors are almost always found in Florida coaches’ bump classes.

Zook’s 2003 class produced Andre Caldwell, Chris Leak, Jarvis Moss, Reggie Nelson and Earl Everett, all key contributors to the 2006 title. Meyer’s 2006 class produced Marcus Gilbert, Brandon James, Percy Harvin, Tim Tebow, Brandon Spikes, Jermaine Cunningham and Riley Cooper, again contributors to the 2006 and 2008 titles.

But even Muschamp and McElwain got a ton out of their bump classes. Muschamp’s 2012 class produced elite players like D.J. Humphries, Jon Bullard, Dante Fowler, Brian Poole, Marcus Maye, Matt Jones and Antonio Morrison. McElwain’s 2016 class produced Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Feleipe Franks, Freddie Swain, Josh Hammond, Lamical Perine, Vosean Joseph and Jawaan Taylor.

Chances are we will be able to list 10-12 players from this class who logged major playing time in two or three years. If the list gets longer than that, then that will be a real testament to Mullen’s coaching ability.

Filling Needs

One of the criticisms leveled at the recruiting ranking process is that it doesn’t factor in a team’s needs.

I think that is usually just fans making excuses, mostly because those things tend to even out over a four-year period. But particularly in a situation where there is a coaching change, this does have some merit. The fact that four offensive linemen are either graduating or leaving for the NFL is a concern precisely because McElwain failed to bring in a ton of blue-chip offensive linemen to replace them.

That’s not a concern for Florida this class, as the Gators brought in seven offensive linemen total, including four blue-chip players.

The chart above shows the number of blue-chip recruits brought to Florida over the past four seasons broken down by position. You can immediately see why Florida needed to focus on the offensive line right away. But Mullen has filled other needs too.

From 2015-2017, McElwain signed zero top-300 linebackers (Jeremiah Moon was ranked a 4-star, but was 307 nationally). Mullen brought in one last year (the other David Reese) and three this year (Diwun Black, Mohamoud Diabate and Tyron Hopper). But not only are they top-300 linebackers, they are all ranked in the top-152.

From 2015-2017, McElwain brought in only four top-300 players on the defensive line (compared to nine for FSU). Mullen has brought in three the past two classes, with 2018 signee Malik Langham (ranked 315th) also adding to the depth up-front.

The strength of the defense is a defensive back, where the Gators have signed a whopping nine blue-chips since 2016. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson may be gone, but the Gators are well positioned to replace him with Marco Wilson returning and top-100 recruits Chris Steele and Kaiir Elam coming to the Swamp.

Tight end has also become a position of strength. With Kyle Pitts and Lucas Krull from last year’s cycle added to Keon Zipperer (ranked 104th), Mullen should be able to bring more versatility to Florida’ scheme. To be able to bring in two or even three tight end sets is something that could not have been done regularly under McElwain.

Finally, the QB room continues to transform. During McElwain’s 2017 season, Luke Del Rio was the best QB on the roster. Mullen will have his choice of Feleipe Franks (ranked 54th), Emory Jones (ranked 85th) or Jalon Jones (ranked 306th) in 2019. With what Mullen was able to accomplish with Franks in 2018, that should be exciting for all Gators fans.

Conference and In-State Rivals

When comparing Mullen to his in-state rivals, Florida grades out really well.

Florida State is reeling after not being able to get a QB for the second straight year and finishing signing day ranked 16th. But things could get worse for the Seminoles, as safety Nick Cross has yet to sign and is reportedly considering Penn State or Maryland.

If Cross decides to go elsewhere, that likely will drop FSU to 20th, a far cry from the number one class that Willie Taggart promised his administration. Even currently, the ‘Noles 247Sports average player ranking of 89.47 is eerily similar to the numbers that Florida saw consistently under McElwain.

Miami finished the cycle ranked 28th, with only 17 commits and an average player ranking of 88.25. This is actually a pretty good job in a short amount of time by new head coach Manny Diaz, but only one top-100 player and losing out on Khris Bogle to the Gators is an issue.

In conference, the story is not quite as rosy.

Tennessee and Auburn are nipping right at Florida’s heels, coming really close to equaling the Gators class. The Vols have more 3-star recruits than Florida, but also added two 5-star recruits. Auburn has less blue-chip recruits but boasts two 5-star recruits as well.

One tier above Florida is LSU (ranked 5th, 284.06) and Texas A&M (ranked 4th, 285.46). Mullen was one five-star recruit from equaling these two, so it’s not like Florida is light years away. Of course, 5-star recruits are a really important part of any class and the absence of one is a key criticism of the Gators 2019 class.

In a tier by themselves above the SEC and everyone else stand Georgia (ranked 2nd, 308.98) and Alabama (ranked 1st, 317.50). These are monster hauls for both these teams. But perhaps more concerning for Gators fans should be that Georgia has five recruits from Florida and Alabama has four.

In fact, of the top-six players in the state of Florida, two signed with Georgia, three signed with Alabama and one signed with Clemson. Florida commits Kaiir Elam and Khris Bogle are ranked 7th and 10th in the state, respectively, but Mullen is going to have to do a better job of keeping in-state talent in-state.

The reason for comparing Florida to conference foes becomes pretty obvious when you look at the data. If we rate teams based on their previous four recruiting cycles in their conference rankings for all Power-5 conferences, here is their winning percentage by ranking from 2015-2018 (prior to this year’s bowls).

There is a huge drop-off from the first three teams and teams 4-8. The same trend is true if we just look at the SEC.

Obviously Alabama is a special breed and a winning machine. But where the Gators finished in recruiting (5th) is significant because the drop-off in winning percentage is precipitous. Even if you think that Mullen is the best coach in the conference and will win at a much higher clip, a 25 percent gap is a ton to cover with coaching and on-field development alone.

The Gators now have an average over the past four cycles of 5th in the SEC. The Gators were at an average of 6.3 last season so Mullen is improving the standing within the conference.

But if you were frustrated by the lack of consistency of the team against perceived lesser teams Kentucky and Missouri, you were experiencing the ramifications of the fact that while Florida’s talent was better than those teams, it wasn’t so much better that it meant a guaranteed win.

Takeaway

There is a lot to like about this recruiting class.

Mullen has raised both the average player ranking and overall class ranking from last season and significantly above McElwain’s three years. Seventeen blue-chip players are the most the Gators have brought in since the 22 blue-chips Urban Meyer brought to Gainesville in 2010. The additions of top-100 talents Chris Steele, Kaiir Elam and Khris Bogle to Tyron Hopper since early signing day is a huge finish.

But there are also reasons to pause.

Florida finishes ranked fifth in the SEC. There is no other area where Gators fans would accept finishing behind LSU, Texas A&M, Georgia and Alabama. The idea that we should be okay with it just because it’s recruiting perplexes me. This is especially true because recruiting consistently translates to success on the field.

I’m sure fans will think back to my perceived negativity back in May and June and think that Mullen has proven me wrong. In some respects, he has. Eighty-five percent of the players he has signed since August 1 – which was the deadline I set to know where this class would end up – have been blue-chip players compared to 40 percent before.

However, here’s what I actually wrote in that article back in June.

But let’s say Mullen keeps up his 30 percent hit rate on elite recruits and so only gets his top five targets and is forced to fill out the class with players ranked from 350-370. That results in a point total of 271.6, which would put the Gators at ninth overall, which is the absolute ceiling at that top-300 ratio.

Mullen only got four of the top-15 targets that I listed in that article (Steele, Elam, Bogle and Zipperer). He then added more players in the 150-300 range than I expected rather than the 350-370 range I cited.

But his point total after today’s events? 276.85, ranked ninth.

The reason for my pessimism back in June – and my caution now – is that coaches don’t typically win big in the SEC with this kind of bump class. Back in July, my colleague Bill Sikes had a list of facts about bump class recruiting for the six coaches who have won SEC Championships and have been hired since 2005. These coaches achieved the following:

• An increase of 8.2 spots in the national rankings
• An increase of 2.3 spots in the conference rankings
• An average of 2.3 5-star recruits
• An average national ranking of 4.7
• An average conference ranking of 2.3
• An average of 16.8 blue-chip recruits

This Gators class only meets the last bullet point and falls short of all other averages.

So while I’m really excited about the way Mullen finished and especially about the additions of Steele, Elam and Bogle, I’m also concerned at the lack of a Trey Sanders-level talent as well.

Perhaps Mullen is going to win at Florida differently than other coaches in the SEC have won. Perhaps it’s unfair to put these kind of expectations on him coming off of the 4-7 debacle that McElwain left him with.

It’s entirely possible that his track record at Mississippi State suggests he will be able to get just as many high-level starters out of his 17 blue-chip recruits as Kirby Smart will get out of his 20. I certainly am rooting for him to do so.

This is a really good class. But the reality is that just being in the top-10 doesn’t mean that you get an ‘A’ because of who you have to compare yourself to in the SEC. Alabama and Georgia widened the talent gap that they already had versus Florida. Once Mullen stops that from happening, I’ll give him an ‘A’.

Until then, I’ll give this class a solid ‘B’. There’s nothing wrong with a ‘B’.

Especially if Kirby keeps calling fake punts.

Featured image used under Creative Commons License via cleverfoxphotography