In my review of the Gators 2019 recruiting class, there was one chart that jumped out at me, and I wasn’t sure how to interpret.
Florida bump recruiting classes broken down by star rating. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
Dan Mullen was able to exceed the total number of blue-chip recruits brought in by Ron Zook and Will Muschamp in their first full recruiting classes and came up just one short of matching Urban Meyer. This would seem to bode well for Mullen’s future, right?
But the issue nagging at me is the 5-star column. Zook had six, Meyer and Muschamp had three while Mullen and McElwain had none. Anytime you’re matching the illustrious record of Jim McElwain on the recruiting trail, that’s an issue.
Broken down further, the numbers reveal something else.
Florida bump recruiting classes broken down by top-100, top-200 and top-300 rankings. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
Zook, Meyer and Muschamp had a lot more top-100 players than either McElwain and Mullen. The place where Mullen beats McElwain in recruiting is with players ranked between 201-300.
So that leads to the natural question: how successful are players in each category? And further, what does that mean for Florida when compared to its rivals?
How does recruiting ranking correlate to on-field success?
The first thing we have to do is define how to measure success.
Previously, I’ve looked at Heisman Trophy winners and first-team All Americans versus star ranking. Those results showed that 5-star recruits are significantly more likely than 4-star recruits to accomplish each. But 5-stars are typically the first 30 or so players in the rankings while 4-stars are typically ranked from 30-300, which isn’t the division we’re looking for.
Instead, the quickest – and perhaps the best – way to measure success is in relation to the NFL Draft. I understand that some players who excel in college will not get drafted, but that’s pretty rare. Typically if you’re in the top-300 players in the country coming out of high school and perform, you’ll get a significant look in the pros.
Thus, I went back to the 2013 and 2014 247Sports Composite recruiting rankings and noted each players’ ranking and whether and where he was drafted. By doing this, we can get an idea of how those rankings correlate with on-field success.
Percent of players drafted by NFL versus recruiting ranking in 2013 and 2014. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
The above chart really tells the entire story. I’ve divided the rankings into 15-player bins (1-15, 16-30, 31-45, etc.) for both 2013 and 2014 recruits and plotted that versus the percentage drafted by the NFL.
As you would expect, top-15 players are drafted significantly more often than any other ranking. But what I wasn’t expecting was how significant of a drop-off there was not just between 1-15 and 16-30, but especially by the time you get to the 46-60 and 61-75 bins.
This data suggests (at least for these two cycles) that there was little difference in success rate from a player rated 80th coming out of high school versus one rated 200th (at least from an NFL Draft perspective).
It also suggests that recruiting 5-star recruits (top-30 players nationally) may be significantly more important than having a more balanced class. Certainly it suggests that to be dominant requires more top-100 players than top-300.
In other words, blue-chip percentage sounds good, but top-end talent appears to matter much more.
Comparing Florida to its Rivals
So what does this mean for Florida when comparing to its rivals? Well, for the 2019 recruiting class, it’s a big of a mixed bag.
Florida finished ranked 5th in the SEC, behind Alabama, Georgia, Texas A&M and LSU. The Gators finished just ahead of Auburn and Tennessee 247Sports score-wise. But the Vols got commitments from two top-30 players and four in the top-61. Likewise, Auburn received commitments from two of the top-33 players in the country.
So while Florida may have more overall depth from this class, an argument could be made that both Tennessee and Auburn may slightly edge out the Gators just because of top-end talent.
Additionally, LSU has three of the top-32. Georgia has five of the top-26. Alabama has five of the top-43. Florida has two top-50 ranked recruits, in Chris Steele and Kaiir Elam.
But that’s just one cycle. If we want to compare top-end talent, then we need to look at the past four seasons.
Top-100 recruits broken down for Florida and its rivals. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
This is what is meant when people talk about the gap between Alabama and Georgia and the rest of the SEC. If Nick Saban can get NFL-quality play from half of his top-100 players, he’ll almost be able to fill an entire roster with NFL-quality players, and that’s without considering the rest of his signing class.
Takeaway
I’m as happy as anyone that Dan Mullen’s 2019 class was able to finish in the top-10 of the national recruiting rankings based on how it started. But as I wrote back in November, top-10 hasn’t historically been good enough to win the SEC, let alone the national championship.
I wish the data was different, but it’s not. Yes, Rivals was recently embarrassed by having a fictitious player ranked as a 3-star. Yes, recruiting services miss on some players. But apparently they don’t miss too often on top players, because those guys make it to the pros at a much higher rate.
You can have very successful seasons with top-300 talent. You may even be able to squeak a conference championship out of it, especially if one of your high-end recruits is a QB who turns out to be a star.
But to rely on that kind of talent distribution is going to typically deliver solid, but not spectacular results.
Mullen is building something in Gainesville. His 2020 and 2021 recruiting classes thus far attest to that. But anyone expecting a year like Urban Meyer had in 2006 or even Kirby Smart had in 2018 is likely misguided.
Urban Meyer had Percy Harvin and Tim Tebow in his bump class (both top-21 talent), and those guys became transcendent stars. Kirby’s bump class had Jake Fromm (41) and D’Andre Swift (33) added to Mecole Hardman (12) and Isaac Nauta (14) from his transition class.
What this means is that it is going to take Mullen more time to compete with the big boys on the field consistently. That doesn’t mean he won’t be able to catch Georgia or even Alabama every once in a while, particularly if Georgia doesn’t get better in-game coaching.
But looking at the 2019 schedule, Florida will have to go through LSU (in Baton Rouge), Georgia (in Jacksonville) and Alabama (in Atlanta) to win the SEC. Add to that a neutral site game versus Miami and home games versus Tennessee and Florida State and it’s a big ask for Florida to make it out of that schedule unscathed.
This isn’t an indictment of Mullen, but a recognition of the realities of how talent correlates to winning in college football.
But Mullen has proven me wrong before. Hopefully he can again.
Tom
If the intent of the article was to temper excitement, you did a good job of putting together graphs and charts, to help explain the narrative you provided in your article to subsequently do just that……temper excitement!
I still feel however the problem with someone that attempts to prove a point using data as the basis for that argument is that while the numbers you provided provide data, they don’t necessarily touch on the circumstances or variables that lead to the numbers. That to me is the weakness in your over-all article.
Mullen’s circumstances in as far as what kind of situation he walk into at Florida pale in comparison to all of the other coaches except maybe McElwain. Mullen truly came into a complete rebuild in my mind………….He had challenges with changing the Gator mindset of the team, and then with changing mindsets of potential recruits. When Urban Meyer left Florida after the 2010 season he left a 8-5 team, and a infected environment. Can you honestly say that Florida totally recovered from that…….I say no, but what Mullen is building in my opinion is the antidote that will lead to a cure. Mullen has a track record of getting more from less……….lets give him the time he needs to bring about the complete cure and stop trying to compare him, using data that is flawed in the way your attempting to provide a narrative……….Right now I’m content to use data to show a positive trend up….which it in fact is showing….ultimately that trend should take the Gators to its ultimate goal…….qualifying for the playoffs and a potential championship…….Mullen’s going to need a couple more years before we cant really start looking at data and drawing defining conclusions.
Will Miles
My goal wasn’t to temper anything. It was to ask a question I was curious about and try to find data to answer that question. I don’t like the answer either, but at least that means if Mullen wins big, we should give him a ton of credit rather than saying “that’s what he should have done”. The reality is that if Florida wins a championship this year, the NFL should pay Mullen whatever he wants, because he will have earned it.
Skeff
You can always skew staticstics in favor of your argument.
I leaned that at UF.. lol
Will miles is a master of making stats look important to his arguments.
He will even give you credit and praise you for poking holes in his theories.
He will then say ” I’m hoping I’m wrong”
If he makes a negative argument and he’s correct it “I told you so”
If he is wrong, then it is a positive outlook from his negative assessment. He “wins” either way..
I knew a guy who would bet against UF, if we lost he made money but if we won he was happy. Can’t lose situation.
Slick Willy is the same way.
Will Miles
Yep. You got me. I’m a charlatan.
CGator
As good as Mullen has proven to be coaching on the field, and in developing players, it’s hard not to think that without recruiting some of these top ranked kids, it’s going to be hard to win the SEC or NC, at least on any kind of regular basis. Even if you give Mullen the coaching nod over Smart, Orgeron, Pruitt and even Fisher (overrated, in my mind, a good but not great coach, despite the national adulation he gets), you face Saban with an NFL roster, and then Dabo, both playing, at least at the moment, with significantly more talented rosters. Mullen does appear to be building toward what he needs, but it might take a few more years to get there. It is probably crucial that the Gators continue to play well to build the momentum needed to start bringing in the 5 stars and high 4 stars.
Tracy Jackson
Taven Bryan, J.Polite, and J. Taylor are or will be first round draft picks that were all rated 3 stars. J. Zuniga was a 3 star. CJ Henderson and Marco Wilson were 4 stars. When your stats show “0” top 25 players consider the players the recruiting services miss on to show a more compete picture. Even our kicker performed at an elite level. Probably the best freshman kicker in the nation. We have more than enough 5 star caliber players on our roster to compete with Georgia. I think Diwun Black, A. Henderson, K. Elam, K. Zipperer, T. Hopper could have easily been 5 star players if it wasn’t for the bias of some of the recruiting services. Chris Steele’s was a top 3 rated corner.How did he not earn his composite 5th star?
Will Miles
All I can do is report the data as it is listed in front of me. If you look at number of 3-star players who make the NFL versus total number of 3-stars, the percentage is much lower than 4-stars, which is also lower than 5-stars. What that means is guys like Bryan, Polite and Taylor earned something not a lot of people do and we should commend them. It also doesn’t mean recruiting services are perfect. But the data is pretty clear that the composite rankings correlate with success. And if you look at Urban Meyer’s teams in 2006 and 2008, they were loaded with top-tier guys.
artic foux
what might be interesting is to take Mullen’s time at MSU and see where his recruits got drafted as an overlay over the chart above and see if his staff development was above / on par / below the average.
Will Miles
Thanks, and in-process.
Carey Freeman
This will be interesting to see.
Mark
Looking forward to seeing this chart!
JEFF LOPEZ
Will, great analysis!!! It proves itself, time after time, even great coaches can’t win championships without 5 Star athletes!!!! We may be a consistent 10 game winning team without 5 Stars, but we won’t win championships without them!!!
Seth Davis
I’d like to know where Clemson fits in the data. They seem to be a big outlier.
Chaz
I keep harping on this but…we’re simply NOT going to get the top recruits until we get the top facilities. This is a primary negative recruiting tactic against UF by our rivals. Recruits want the bling, the soaking pools, the LED lighting, flat screens, etc. Also another recruiting tactic used against us is a disjointed football layout with no centralized complex and practice area requiring a 20 minute walk from place to place. Luckily we have great plans in the works, but sadly this should have been conceived and executed 5-10 years ago. Just search on YouTube what our rivals are doing, and you’ll just shake your head.
Tom
Do this Will, Lets look outside the SEC and throw Dabo’s classes into the mix. I believe what you’ll find is that he’s class are consistently right around top 10 sometimes even outside top 10. So ask yourself why are his teams consistently in the playoffs? Is it because of the ACC is generally a weak conference? Is there something that can be said with recruiting around top 10 classes and then simply coaching them up? Or is it a combination of these two, and then throw in outstanding QB play?
I ask you to look at Dabo’s case only because he’s clearly no recruiting at Smart and Saban’s level year in and out.
Jack Andrews
The interesting thing to me is the low rate at which kids outside the top 50 get drafted, and how the curve stays mostly flat all the way to 300. This tells me that outside of the kids who are really really exceptional it’s pretty difficult to judge talent coming out of high school
Will Miles
Yep. Kinda the way it is in all walks of life though, right?
Chaz
Disappointed to hear that Griffis de-committed today. Many thought he was an underrated talent that would have blossomed at UF. Again an IMG player turns away from UF. Will – do you know if there is still an overwhelming bias against the Gators at IMG? It was reputed that during the years Chris Weinke ran the program, he actively steered players away from UF, anywhere but UF, because of his FSU ties. Since he has gone to coach the running backs at Tennessee, is there still an FSU bent staff that actively recruits against signing with the Gators? I wonder if Griffis was talked out of a UF commitment by these influences at IMG.