Hidden plays that helped make and break the Gators 2018 football season

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I rely on numbers a lot.

Part of that is because I trust numbers. I believe that over the course of the season, they do the best job of telling us what actually happened. Film study is useful, but inevitably it is only an analysis of a single play or set of plays.

But one thing I can’t deny is that while numbers do a great job of telling the story of a season, games often hinge on single plays. Sometimes those plays are a QB hitting or missing a huge play down the field. But oftentimes, those plays are much more hidden.

So I thought it would be interesting to look back at the Gators 2018 season and pick out the plays in each non-cupcake game, some of which I had forgotten, that played a major role in the outcome.

Kentucky (16-27)

The Situation: After Kentucky QB Terry Wilson hit a 54-yard TD pass to Lynn Bowden to go ahead 21-10, Florida was able to drive the ball into field goal range aided by a pass interference and facemask penalty on Kentucky late in the third quarter. On third-and-7, this happened….

The Result: There was holding on this play, so Toney dropping the ball didn’t cost Florida near as much as it may appear. But had this play been completed without the hold, Florida likely goes on to score a TD and pulls to either 21-16 or 21-18. That would have put a ton of pressure on a Kentucky team with the huge monkey of the 31-game losing streak to Florida.

Instead, Gators kicker Evan McPherson “missed” the field goal, putting Kentucky in a position to be able to try and run out the clock in the fourth quarter. Florida deserved to lose this game based on how it played, but this could have made it a lot closer.

Tennessee (47-21)

The Situation: It’s easy to look at the final score (and even the halftime score) and assume that this game was Florida’s from the start. The Gators certainly did start fast, jumping out to a 14-0 lead. But it’s also easy to forget that those 14 points came after two Tennessee turnovers with drives that totaled 28 yards.

Tennessee was able to cut the lead to 14-3 after a fumble by Lamical Perine. That led to what I think was the key play in the game.

The Result: Perine may have fumbled away three points, but he snatched the ability to get back in the game away from the Vols on this one. Note that Tennessee head coach Jeremy Pruitt got exactly what he wanted. The Vols had four men surrounding Perine, who went up and caught the ball like a seasoned wide receiver. Also kudos to Mullen for having a starter out there on special teams to make this play.

Florida may have still won this game going away. And the Vols did force them to punt. But that punt pinned Tennessee back deep and allowed the Florida defense to force a safety. The next play after Tennessee’s kickoff back to Florida turned into a 65-yard TD pass to Freddie Swain and the game was over.

Mississippi State (13-6)

The Situation: This play was the easiest of them all to pick out, and quite honestly, also the most memorable. But in a game that could have turned on any one play, it was the play that wasn’t made that really changed the game’s complexion.

Franks had just thrown an interception with Florida down 6-3. Joe Moorhead decided to take his shot and Nick Fitzgerald delivered the ball right on the money.

The Result: The ball bounced right off receiver Osirus Mitchell’s hands. The Florida defense then forced Mississippi State to punt, and the Bulldogs weren’t even able to pin Florida deep. The subsequent drive included the TD pass from Toney to Moral Stephens on a trick play and Florida never relinquished the lead.

LSU (27-19)

The Situation: LSU had just gashed Florida’s defense for 80 yards rushing on a four-play TD drive early in the fourth quarter to go up 19-14. Florida had responded with a good drive, but was facing a third-and-7 at the LSU 29-yard line.

The Result: This looks familiar now, but it was really the first time that Mullen used Franks as a runner in a third-and-long situation that mattered. LSU – who typically plays man-to-man defense – was in that look again here (one single-high safety). However, they were clearly guarding against a quick pass at the sticks and so their DB’s – particularly Greedy Williams (#29) – backpedaled at the snap.

That allowed Franks to get to the outside and get the first down. The very next play was the throwback pass from tight end Lucas Krull to Franks and Florida was then able to punch in the TD. That put the Gators up 20-19 and set up the drama of the pick-six to come.

Vanderbilt (37-27)

The Situation: Early in the third quarter, Vanderbilt was up 21-13. They had weathered the storm after a bench clearing earlier in the game and Florida was on its heels with Vosean Joseph having been ejected because of a second personal foul during that incident.

Vandy was deep in Florida territory and had third-and-6. The Commodores decided to do what a lot of Florida opponents did last season: target Florida cornerback C.J. McWilliams (#12).

The Result: McWilliams was supposed to get rubbed off his coverage by the other receiver’s route. Instead, he navigated his way around the pick and made a fantastic open-field tackle. Vandy had to settle for a field goal, which they subsequently missed. Franks then drove Florida down the field to pull Florida to 21-20 and the entire complexion of the game changed.

Georgia (17-36)

The Situation: Florida had weathered another Georgia storm with a crazy goal-line stand after a Feleipe Franks fumble. Georgia had kicked a field goal to go up by nine, but Florida was able to respond with a 50-yard field goal drive to pull within six again early in the fourth quarter.

After the field goal, Georgia defensive lineman Tyler Clark was penalized for unsportsmanlike conduct, meaning that Florida would be kicking off from mid-field.

The Result: Mullen decided to bring in his specialty kicker and…..pooch? Look, I think Dan Mullen is an awesome in-game coach, but this is a really bad decision. The 15-yard penalty gifted by Georgia meant that even with a traditional onsides kick going 10 yards and recovered by Georgia, the Bulldogs take over at its own 40. Instead, Georgia was able to fair catch the pooch and start at its own 25.

The Florida defense had every right to be gassed after that goal-line stand, and how often it had been forced to stop Georgia when the offense had put it in a tough position. The 15-yards that Mullen gained by pooching were basically worthless. The upside of trying an onside was the ability to rest his defense more and potentially take the lead. That’s the move when you’re the underdog, and he failed to play like the underdog in this case.

Instead, Georgia took over at the 25 and drove straight down the field to put the game away with a TD.

Missouri (17-38)

The Situation: This was such a butt-whooping, it was hard to pick out one play. But the one that stood out to me was after Missouri pinned Florida deep leading 7-3 early in the second quarter. Franks threw the ball three times on this drive. On first down, he threw a little swing pass for no gain. Then on second down, there was this.

The Result: The results on second and third down were basically the same. Franks got pressured a little bit, but there were receivers wide open on both. On this play, Missouri was giving Van Jefferson such a big cushion that they were basically gifting Florida the first down.

Instead, Florida was forced to punt and Missouri took over at the Florida 40. A Vosean Joseph broken-coverage later and Missouri was up 14-3 and the rout was on.

South Carolina (35-31)

The Situation: South Carolina had just gone up 31-14 after a long pass to Deebo Samuel was punched in by Rico Dowdle. With 3:51 left in the third quarter, facing a third-and-8, Florida center Nick Buchanan snapped the ball over Feleipe Franks’ head.

The Result: Somehow Franks was able to pick up the ball and shake off a facemask (uncalled). He then completed the ball to Trevon Grimes on a miracle tip. Had his intended receiver (Kemore Gamble) caught the ball, he likely gets tackled short of the first down.

I remember chortling when I saw the play live, figuring that it was a microcosm of what had happened to this offense at that point. Instead, Franks – and the offense – caught fire and came storming back. Prior to this drive, Franks averaged 5.7 yards per pass. From that point on, Franks averaged 12.5 yards per pass and added a passing and rushing touchdown.

We didn’t know it at the moment it happened, but this was the play that turned the entire 2018 season around.

Florida State (41-14)

The Situation: Coming out of halftime up 13-7, Florida drove down into FSU territory. On third-and-7 (after a fantastic Feleipe Franks flop on a play whistled dead for a timeout), Florida basically conceded going for a field goal by running an option to Scarlett to the short side of the field for a gain of three. But there was extracurricular activity on the play.

The Result: Florida State corner Stanford Samuels threw a punch at Van Jefferson, incurring an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty and giving Florida a first down. Two plays later – and against a defense with 12 men on the field no less – Florida converted a TD pass to Jefferson to go up 20-7, and the way the Gators defense was playing, this one was basically over.

This wasn’t just pure luck. FSU’s calling card in 2018 was terrible penalties under Willie Taggart. But had Florida just been up 16-7 afterwards, FSU would have been able to stick to its running game. Instead, they had to throw the ball and lethal simplicity wasn’t able to do much of anything the rest of the game.

Michigan (41-15)

The Situation: Gators fans no doubt remember Feleipe Franks’ 20-yard TD run on third-and-4 late in the third quarter that put Florida ahead 13-10. What they may not remember is that two plays earlier, Franks had taken a sack to set up a second-and-19 that pushed Florida to the edge of field goal range.

The Result: Franks was flushed from the pocket, but was able to outrun Michigan to the edge. Josh Hammond was able to get in a way a little bit to allow Franks to get a couple of extra yards, plus Franks was able to break a tackle setting up the fateful third-and-4.

Conclusions

There were a lot of plays that I could have chosen, but these were the ones that stood out in my mind as having an outsized impact even if they aren’t the ones that make the main highlight reel.

The reality that Florida’s entire season may have turned on a fluke play against South Carolina emphasizes that while numbers do help us tell the story, sometimes the story is written by outside factors too.

And the fact that the key play (to me, at least) against Michigan was a scramble by Franks to set up his own TD run – a scramble that looked really similar to the one on which he fumbled in 2017 and was immediately yanked from the Michigan opener by Jim McElwain – does show that the football Gods have some degree of mercy.

But this exercise is also a good reminder that the difference between 8-5 and 10-3 is razor thin. Florida is going to be a better team in 2019 than it was in 2018. But that doesn’t guarantee it will have a better record. There are going to have to be a bunch of plays like this that goes its way in 2019 to have that happen.

The good news is that these kind of plays happen a lot under Dan Mullen.

Featured image used under Creative Commons license courtesy joiseyshowaa