Kendal Briles was announced earlier this offseason as the new offensive coordinator at Florida State.
Regardless of what you think of Briles, this move reeks of desperation for FSU head coach Willie Taggart. Taggart took over an offense ranked 88th in yards per play in 2017 and made them worse (109th) in 2018.
Starting QB Deondre Francois went from a solidly above average QB (YAR = 0.50) in 2016 to a well below average QB (YAR = -0.90) in 2018 coming off of a serious knee injury. With Francois gone, the offense is now going to be piloted by either James Blackman (YAR = -0.57 in 2017) or Wisconsin transfer Alex Hornibrook (YAR = -0.31 over the last three years).
Add to that running backs Cam Akers and Jacques Patrick combining for 1084 yards in 2018 – down from 1773 in 2017 – and it becomes clear why Briles was brought to Tallahassee.
It’s a remarkable turn of events considering that Taggart was considered by many to be an offensive pioneer with the “Gulf Coast Offense” that he installed in his time at USF. And it’s a change in philosophy that is going to have to pay off for Taggart if he hopes to keep his job.
Briles’ Track Record
First, I have to admit something up-front. Everywhere Briles has been an offensive coordinator the offenses have succeeded.
FSU Offensive Coordinator Kendal Briles’ track record as an OC. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
Indeed, if we look at the offenses that he has coordinated, only Baylor in 2016 was non-elite and they were still solidly in the top third of the country. But there are a few things to consider even with these numbers.
First, in the two years before Briles took over as offensive coordinator at Baylor, the Bears finished 2nd and 20th in yards per play. Then offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery was hired away to be the head coach at Tulsa so the younger Briles took the reins.
But Art Briles was still in charge in 2015.
In 2016, Art Briles was no longer in charge, as he had been dismissed after the 2015 season due to the much-publicized Baylor sexual assault scandal. However, Kendal Briles remained at Baylor as the offensive coordinator and the offense regressed significantly, even though the main QB was the exact same player, Seth Russell.
Statistics for Baylor QB Seth Russell in 2015 and 2016. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
Russell was unbelievable in 2015 until he suffered a neck injury. He wasn’t the same player in 2016. Now certainly the injury might have had something to do with that. But he ran the ball twice the number of times in 2016 that he did in 2015, indicating that Baylor wasn’t too concerned about him getting hit.
If this was an isolated incident, I’d give Briles the benefit of the doubt and bow to the larger sample size of his time as offensive coordinator. But it’s not the only time this has happened.
In 2017, Major Applewhite took over for Tom Herman at Houston. The offense immediately improved under Applewhite, going from 94th in yards per play in 2016 to 36th in 2017. That improved to 13th in 2018 under Briles, so again he had an elite offense.
But Houston’s offense didn’t really take off in 2017 until QB D’Eriq King was inserted into the lineup at QB in the eighth game of the season against South Florida. King certainly played well in the last five games of that season.
Statistics for Houston QB D’Eriq King in 2017 and 2018. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
King again was excellent in 2018, but he was better in 2017 (admittedly in fewer opportunities) under now Florida QB coach Brian Johnson as offensive coordinator than he was under Briles.
Houston’s offense averaged 43.9 points per game last season, so it’s not as if the Cougars were slouches at all. But with the Houston offense improving so much from 2016 to 2017, I wonder whether that was due to Briles or due to Applewhite in combination with starting the season with King at QB.
The other data point on Briles’ resume is 2017 at Florida Atlantic. This was also Lane Kiffin’s first season at FAU.
The Owls immediately became a potent offense under Kiffin and Briles. But I think it is fair to ask whether that was because of Kiffin or because of Briles?
Likely it was a combination of both, but Kiffin is known as an innovative offensive mind. During his time at Alabama prior to coming to FAU, it was Kiffin who was credited with updating the Tide’s offense. And after Briles left FAU, the Owl’s offense still finished 18th in yards per play in 2018.
None of this means that Briles can’t be a successful coordinator. But I do think it indicates that his track record on the field is not as gleaming as it might initially seem.
Scheme Fit
From everything I can tell, Briles runs an offense that is pretty far away schematically from the Gulf Coast Offense. The “Veer and Shoot” offense pioneered by his father – Art Briles – is designed to hit receivers streaking vertically down the field. If you’re interested in delving further into some of the concepts, you can find an excellent write-up here.
The Gulf Coast offense is based on principles of spread offenses and taking advantage of a running QB while incorporating concepts from the West Coast offense in the NFL (which Taggart was exposed to under Jim Harbaugh at Stanford). Again, you can find more about those concepts here.
The point isn’t to say that either offense is better. But it is striking that Taggart has decided (or been forced to decide) that his offensive principles aren’t going to be successful in the ACC after only one year with FSU’s current personnel.
The problem is that no offense can run efficiently if the offensive line is terrible, and Florida State’s offensive line was terrible in 2018. But it’s been that way for a while.
Running-game statistics for the Florida State offensive line from 2015-2018. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
The chart above shows the rankings of the FSU offensive line according to Football Outsiders in the running game from 2015-2018. The FSU offensive line was truly terrible in the running game in 2018. But except for 2016, it hasn’t been very good during this time period.
The same trend appears when looking at the FSU offensive line and its ability to protect the QB.
Passing-game statistics for the Florida State offensive line from 2015-2018. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
The 2018 season was actually better in these categories in 2018 than in either 2016 or 2017. But this shouldn’t be a surprise because Taggart’s offense is based on the West Coast offense, which prioritizes a short, precise passing game.
It would be one thing if FSU had a line of graduate transfers and recruits coming into the program to prop up the line. Or it would be fine if there were four or five blue-chip offensive linemen who were redshirting last season and are ready to step in. But that’s not even remotely the case.
In 2016, Jimbo Fisher signed four blue-chip offensive linemen (Landon Dickerson, Baveon Johnson, Jauan Williams and Josh Ball). Dickerson missed most of last season with an ankle injury, Williams was ineffective as a first-year tackle, Johnson only appeared in four games and Ball is no longer with the team.
No blue-chip offensive linemen were signed in 2017, Christian Meadows was signed in 2018 and redshirted and Dontae Lucas signed in 2019.
Compare that to Florida, who had zero blue-chip offensive line signees in 2016, then two in 2017, one in 2018 and four in 2019. The line is definitely an area of need for both of these teams, but only Florida is filling those holes with elite talent.
Briles is going to have to revamp the running game with a very similar offensive line to the one that underperformed last season. And I’m skeptical he’s going to be able to effectively implement his vertical passing game given the level of offensive line play.
Takeaway
Kendal Briles may be an excellent offensive coordinator. On the surface, his track record certainly suggests he will be able to improve the Seminoles offense.
To be honest, I’m not sure it could get worse so it almost has to get better. Of course, I said the same thing not too long ago about one Douglas K. Nussmeier.
Regardless, I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect some high flying top-10 or even top-50 offense. I mean, who will be the QB? Will the line be able to get enough push to run the ball? Will the line be able to give that QB enough time to throw downfield?
The answers last year were a resounding no. And there aren’t a whole lot of blue-chip linemen ready to step in and make things better.
And I still think there is a serious question to be asked whether working under Art Briles, Lane Kiffin and Major Applewhite has shielded Briles in some capacity. Those are all offensive coaches who were running their own offenses with bits and pieces of Briles’ influence.
In every situation where he stepped in as offensive coordinator, offenses were already on the upswing. He hasn’t had to revamp an offense with anywhere near the futility as FSU showed last season. He has also had an incumbent QB in his first season at each stop (Russell at Baylor, Jason Driskel at FAU, King at Houston).
There’s also the Taggart factor to consider. You’d think that he is going to want to keep portions of his offense installed as well, if only for continuity’s sake. But that offense was so awful last year that I am curious to see how his and Briles’ styles combine next season.
And none of this takes into account the other baggage that comes with Briles. Florida State – a school that has been accused relatively recently of covering up sexual assaults – has brought in an offensive coordinator with connections to a program with similar allegations in his recent past. That doesn’t have anything to do with how Briles will perform on the field, but it is likely to cause division within the fan base should the Seminoles offense continue to struggle.
Because that’s how major football programs operate. If you score points and win, all sins are forgiven. But if you don’t, then those are things that are used as reasons to hire someone else who will.
Willie Taggart is betting his tenure at Florida State on Briles’ ability to significantly improve the Seminoles offense. I actually hope that he does show some improvement in 2019 for two reasons.
The first is that a good, or at least competent, Florida State is good for Florida. That out-of-conference win is important for strength of schedule purposes and for national exposure if it features both teams in the top-25.
The second is that while Taggart’s reputation was as a recruiter, he came up short in the 2019 cycle after promising his administration significantly more. If Briles doesn’t show significant progress on offense this season, it could be the last for both him and Taggart in Tallahassee.
And based on the returns thus far, that would be a bad result for the Gators.