Embed from Getty Images 2019 commit, defensive back Kaiir Elam at the Under Armour All American game
Well, we’re back on the recruiting roller coaster again after 4-star DT Warren Brinson committed to Georgia over Florida on Saturday.
For some on Twitter, this is the final straw. Proof that Mullen will never be able to compete with Kirby Smart for the best players in the state.
For others, this is an overreaction to something relatively insignificant. After all, Mullen was just able to take Jim McElwain’s players plus his transition recruiting class (average national recruiting ranking of 14.5), go 10-3, and finish 7th in the AP Poll to finish the 2018 season.
I don’t expect this topic to become any less polarizing, but perhaps we can look at some markers to understand whether the sky is falling, everything is fine or if the truth lies somewhere in between.
Where Florida Stands Currently
Last season at this time, Florida was ranked 27th nationally. This year, the Gators are in significant better shape with a national ranking of 7th, 4th in the SEC. This is obviously a welcome change.
But the problem with using the point totals in June to rate classes is that different programs have different numbers of commitments. For example, Alabama has 17 commits while Georgia has 11, so the quantity of players puts Alabama at 2nd with Georgia at 5th, even though Georgia has a higher average player rating.
This is where the picture of where Florida stands gets a little murky. If you sort the data based on the 247Sports composite individual player point rating, the Gators fall to 14th nationally (rating of 90.90). This also drops Florida to 6th in the SEC as Texas A&M (92.08) and South Carolina (92.78) jump in front.
Again, this is an imperfect measure because the Aggies only have 6 commits and the Gamecocks only have 8. If you average Florida’s top-6 and top-8 commits, that gives an average individual point rating of 93.59 and 92.53 so the top-end talent in the class is superior to A&M and South Carolina.
Last season at this time, Florida’s commits had an average individual point rating of 88.90. That translated to an average national player ranking of 498. Compare that to Florida’s average national player ranking of 311 up to this point and it is clear that the recruiting picture this year is much more encouraging than last.
Where Florida Stands Versus Rivals
Recruiting isn’t conducted in a vacuum. I’ve written previously about how conference rankings are important because those are the teams you have to play. Florida has to play Florida State, Georgia, LSU and Alabama (hopefully) every year, so those are the teams to which we should compare the Gators.
That picture isn’t all good or bad either. The following chart shows those teams’ recruiting at this time last year and where they stand right now.
Florida recruiting in June versus its rivals for the 2019 and 2020 cycles. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
The good news is that Florida is ahead of Florida State. While it is a narrow margin, this is important because last season at this time, Willie Taggart had an 83 percent top-300 ratio and two top-100 commits. That dropped to 38 percent by the end of the season, so clearly the on-the-field product had an effect.
Last season at this time, Florida had zero top-100 commits and a top-300 percentage of 30 percent. So again, we see that Florida’s recruiting up to this point in the 2020 cycle is better than in 2019.
But when compared to the other three rivals, Florida is again behind. Alabama, LSU and Georgia have classes ranked 2nd, 3rd and 5th nationally based on points and 2nd, 3rd and 7th nationally based on average individual player point rating.
Georgia has a lower top-300 percentage, but that’s because the Bulldog’s bottom two recruits have national rankings of 313 and 339. Alabama has actually seen a bit of a drop-off this year as Clemson and Georgia have begun making inroads, but the Tide is still in an elite category.
LSU has really picked up the pace with a top-300 percentage of 80 percent and 5 top-100 players compared to 40 percent and 2 top-100 players at this time last year. The Tigers finished at 48 percent top-300 in 2019 compared to 52 percent for Florida.
And LSU is an area where I think there should be some concern. With LSU as a permanent opponent from the West, Florida is going to play three recruiting behemoths every season if Orgeron can keep up this pace.
Predicting Florida’s Finish
Last season, this was my prediction in June based on Mullen’s top-300 rate and the way the recruiting board looked at the time.
But let’s say Mullen keeps up his 30 percent hit rate on elite recruits and so only gets his top five targets and is forced to fill out the class with players ranked from 350-370. That results in a point total of 271.6, which would put the Gators at ninth overall, which is the absolute ceiling at that top-300 ratio.
The Gators finished with the ninth rated class and a point total of 276.85.
I was actually a little bit more optimistic in that assessment than the numbers suggested based on who was available and suggesting interest towards the Gators.
I had set an (admittedly arbitrary) deadline of August 1 to look at top-300 commit percentage to predict where a class might finish based on a linear regression of previous classes. As of August 1, Florida had a 30 percent top-300 percentage, and I would have predicted a finish around 16th nationally.
But on August 2, Diwun Black committed to Florida, which (if you give me the one day), would have put Florida at 4 out of 11 commits in the top-300. The equation I came up with in that article would have predicted a finish of 14.2 nationally. It turns out if you remove Chris Steele from last year’s class, the Gators end up with a point total of 269.44, which would have put them at 13th.
So minus a near 5-star player who is currently off the radar committing (or flipping), where does that put the Gators?
Top-300 percentage needed by August and projected recruiting finish. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
With 6 of 12 recruits in the top-300, were it early August we would expect a finish of around 9th. That can improve to 4.5 if Mullen can get four more commits from top-300 players.
This is a completely different story from 2019. Last year, Mullen needed 6 more top-300 players by August to get to 7th based on this analysis. Basically, a top-10 class was a high-end result. Indeed, Mullen finished strong and was only able to climb to 9th.
This year there’s a much clearer path to a top-5 class, and 9th would, quite frankly, be a disappointment.
Takeaway
Two things can be true at the same time.
First, Florida’s 2020 class is in better shape than 2019, and by a significant margin. However, that 2020 class is also not on-par with three teams that Florida will have to go through on a regular basis to win the SEC.
In my view, the reaction on Twitter on Saturday in response to Brinson’s commitment to Georgia really isn’t all that warranted. Not only is Florida doing better on the trail this year, but the Gators also have two defensive tackles rated significantly higher than Brinson already coming into the program in 2019.
If Florida is going to recruit against Georgia consistently, they’re going to lose some battles. The reality is that the way Georgia is recruiting right now means Florida is likely going to lose more of those battles than it wins.
Additionally, the strange transfer of Steele along with the departure of Jalon Jones and the decommitments of a significant portion of the 2021 class have Gators fans understandably on edge. Had Brinson committed to the Gators, it likely wouldn’t have been seen as a huge deal. The fact that he chose Georgia was a kick to the groin to start June after repeated kicks in May.
If we’re honest with ourselves, progress is the only fair way to grade a head coach. Is the program headed in the right direction? That was what was so disappointing about the offenses under Jim McElwain and Will Muschamp before him, the lack of progress.
Mullen clearly fixed that problem on the field in year one. He appears to be addressing the recruiting issues at a much slower pace. That pace is going to make winning consistently more difficult, particularly with the way the Gators rivals are bringing players in.
But take heart, Gators fans. Mullen may not have recruiting where you want it just yet, but he is showing progress. It’s up to you to decide individually whether that progress is good enough for how you want the program built.
I know that I believe that he’s going to have to get top-3 classes in the SEC to compete consistently. Unfortunately, just because of the conference he’s in, that means top-4 national classes.
It’s going to take a huge finish – and likely a 5-star commitment – to get there this cycle. But at this time last season there wasn’t any conceivable chance to get there.
That’s progress.