Previewing how Florida can beat Miami to open the season

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The Florida Gators season opens up this Saturday against Miami.

After all of the talking, all the predicting and all of the back-and-forth from both fan bases on Twitter, it’s finally here.

I’m sure the players feel the same way. Experienced players are ready to take the next step. Young players are ready to step into starting roles to replace those who have graduated or moved on to the NFL. And for Florida, the Gators look to build on a successful 2018 season while for Miami, the Hurricanes are looking to prove that 2018 was the anomaly and their 10-3 2017 record is more indicative of who they are.

These early season tests always have a surprise or two in store. Two years ago, Gators fans thought they had a chance at a special season that was blown up almost immediately after a 33-17 loss to Michigan that was the beginning of the end for Jim McElwain.

That same year, Florida State played Alabama and lost starting QB Deondre Francois to a patella tendon tear. Little did we know at the time that the injury would also lead Jimbo Fisher to jump from the Seminoles to Texas A&M, paving the way for the Willie Taggart era that Gators fans are enjoying so much right now.

So what can we expect to see on Saturday when the ‘Canes take on the Gators?

2018 Seasons

The 2018 season for Florida was a rousing success by any measure.

Feleipe Franks looked like a competent QB, especially by the end of the year. An offense that had been a quagmire under both Will Muschamp and Jim McElwain came to life, averaging 35 points per game. And the Gators were able to put an exclamation point on the end of the season by thumping Florida State and getting even with Michigan for the loss the year before in emphatic fashion.

The 2018 season for Miami was the polar opposite.

After coming into the year following a 10-3 season in year one under Mark Richt, Miami was expected to challenge Clemson for ACC supremacy. Instead, the Hurricanes got obliterated by LSU in their season opener, barely squeaked by what we now know was a terrible FSU team and then lost four straight against the traditional bottom-feeders of the ACC (Virginia, Boston College, Duke and Georgia Tech).

The Hurricanes then managed to end the season on an even lower note, losing to Wisconsin in the Pinstripe Bowl 35-3 in a game that wasn’t as close as that score indicates.

Still, it would be a mistake for the Gators to dismiss the Hurricanes so quickly.

The first reason is that I like to look at scoring differential when trying to gauge the true talent of a team rather than won/loss record. The reason is that the separation between predicted wins via scoring differential versus won/loss record tells us whether a team was lucky or unlucky during the season (and often reflects the quality of the coaching staff).

By that metric, Miami was a pretty good team in 2018. The Hurricanes outscored its opponents 374-253, which should have translated into 8.9 wins. So basically, Miami finished two wins shy of what we would expect based on its ability to score and defend.

This even holds true if you remove the 77-0 shellacking of Savannah State early in the year. Had that been another Power-5 team relatively even with Miami, the Hurricanes would have been expected to win 8 games, still well above what they were able to accomplish.

As I mentioned, this is sometimes due to bad luck. One-score games (8 points or fewer) tend to be 50/50 propositions over the long haul. When teams have a season where they win a bunch of those games, they end up exceeding expectations and when they lose a bunch, they come up short of fans’ expectations.

Well, Miami went 1-3 in those types of games, winning a close one versus FSU but losing to Virginia, Duke and Georgia Tech. So that stretch of four straight losses for the Hurricanes could have been impacted by one play here or there. The fact that Miami couldn’t make those plays is why Richt is no longer the coach. But the fact that they were in position means that Manny Diaz can turn this thing around quickly if he knows what he’s doing.

On the Florida side of things, Dan Mullen’s inaugural season as Gators head coach saw him outscore opponents 455-260, for an expected win total of 9.8. Thus, we can say pretty confidently that the 10-3 season the Gators enjoyed wasn’t a fluke but well earned.

Mullen did go 3-0 in one-score games and so that is something that bears watching in 2019. In particular, the game against South Carolina that really turned Florida’s season around was one where luck played a significant role (i.e. Franks’ completion to Trevon Grimes on a tipped pass that jump-started the offense).

Still, the Gators showed up when they had to, going 3-1 against teams that – based on recruiting rankings – had more talent than they did. That has been a trend for Mullen, who has won at a much higher clip against more talented opponents, going back to his time at Mississippi State.

Based on talent profiles, we would have expected Florida to win 7.6 games. If we look at Mullen’s historical ability to win games against more talented opponents, that jumps to 9.2 wins. It was a very good first season for Florida.

Miami showed up against teams that were more talented, going 1-1 on its season. The issue for the Hurricanes is that they vastly underperformed against less talented teams, going 6-5 against teams with less talent. Based on talent alone, we would have expected Miami to win 8.4 games.

That right there is the reason that Manny Diaz is the Miami head coach and not Mark Richt.

Florida Offense vs. Miami Defense

One reason Miami struggled in close games last season was because of some degree of bad luck on defense.

The Hurricanes ranked 3rd against FBS opponents in yards per play, 4th versus the pass and 37th versus the run.  Yet Miami ranked 21st in points per game allowed, indicating that its underlying metrics were better than the results on the field.

Miami brings back six main starters on defense, led by defensive end Jonathan Garvin and his 17 tackles for loss (TFL) and 5 sacks. The linebackers are really the strength of the defense, with Michael Pinckney, Shaq Quarterman and Zach McCloud – all seniors who have played since they were freshmen – roaming the middle.

Linebacker is where Miami got a lot of its big plays on defense last year, as those three combined for 29.5 TFL and 10 sacks.

One thing to watch for on Saturday is how vulnerable Miami’s defense is up the middle. As I mentioned earlier, the run defense for the Hurricanes was much worse than its pass defense. Defensive Tackles Pat Bethel is back for his senior season, but highly rated Nesta Silvera just had surgery on his foot and is going to be out.

If Florida can get push up the middle, it will be a long day for the Hurricanes. It’s not a coincidence that Miami’s defense struggled against the run last year and defensive back Jaquan Johnson led the defense in tackles. If safeties Amari Carter or transfer Bubba Bolden are making tackles on Saturday, it is going to be a long day for the ‘Canes.

And that’s where this story really gets interesting. I believe Dan Hevesy will do a good job getting the Gators offensive line to play well throughout the year, but this is game one. Last year, the offensive line was pretty bad versus Kentucky and it put the Gators in a situation where they had to lean on Feleipe Franks. Miami may be susceptible to getting pounded up the middle but the question is, can the young Gators offensive line take advantage?

Of course, the Feleipe Franks that Florida tried to rely on during that Kentucky game is not the same QB that Florida has behind center now. This Franks became more than just a game manager and morphed into a playmaker the last four games of the year, particularly in the last two games versus Florida State and Michigan.

That Franks was much more willing to run, but he also did a much better job of reading defenses and getting the ball to the right spot. That was reflected by significantly higher accuracy on deep passes than he had shown all season long.

Lamical Perine is back to anchor a deep stable of running backs, including  Dameon Pierce, Malik Davis and Iverson Clement. The skill positions are stacked too with Tyrie Cleveland, Josh Hammond, Freddie Swain, Van Jefferson, Trevon Grimes and Kadarius Toney at wide receiver. Add to that the prospect of high-level recruit Jacob Copeland motioning into the backfield and the question Mullen may have to answer is how to keep all of his players happy with the number of touches they are getting.

The one place where I think there may be a significant advantage for Florida is at the tight end position. Kemore Gamble has shown some flashes thus far, but the players who have Gators fans buzzing are Lucas Krull and Kyle Pitts.

Both of them are 6’6”, with Krull at 256 pounds and Pitts at 239. If they can be above average blockers, it will really put the defense at a disadvantage. It’s really similar to what the Patriots were able to do in the Super Bowl last year because of what Rob Gronkowski brings to the table.

Gronkowski lines up as a blocker, in the slot and as a boundary wide receiver on the first three plays in the clip below. But the hidden thing is that the personnel grouping also includes fullback James Develin. Develin lines up as a traditional fullback on the first play, as a boundary wide receiver on the second and third plays.

Why is a big guy like Develin lined up outside? Well, when the Rams saw Develin on the field, they put their base defense on the field. But then when the Pats sent Develin outside, he occupied a corner. That meant there were only three defensive backs to cover the other four New England receivers. It’s not a coincidence that with this personnel grouping the Pats receivers finally started getting open. They were guarded by linebackers on all three key plays.

• Gronk one-on-one against Samson Ebukam (a linebacker) – completion for 18 yards
• Edelman one-on-one against Cory Littleton (a linebacker) – completion for 13 yards
• Gronk one-on-one against Littleton – completion for 29 yards

With Pitts, Krull and Gamble, Florida should be able to run similar schemes. If the defense stays base, spread the defense to get one-on-one versus the linebacker. If the defense brings in an extra defensive back, then pound them on the ground.

Mullen’s system is based on numbers and those two could be what takes this offense from good to great.

Miami’s defensive numbers last year were excellent. But in the two games against non-ACC Power-5 teams (Wisconsin and LSU), the Hurricanes gave up 489 yards rushing on a 5.1 yards per rush average. That would have ranked 103rd in FBS last season and Gerald Willis is gone. It’s not a coincidence that Miami couldn’t stop the run against Wisconsin when Willis was out in the bowl game.

Even when the Gators were struggling last year, they were usually able to run the ball. Combine that with Franks’ development and the potential of adding tight end-centric plays on offense and it’s pretty clear that Florida has the edge on this side of the ball.

Advantage: Florida

Miami Offense vs. Florida Defense

The Hurricanes announced recently that they are starting redshirt Freshman Jarren Williams.

Whenever you’re evaluating a QB, you would like to look at a bunch of tape to get a feel for what he can do. Unfortunately, there isn’t a ton of film out there on Williams, particularly at the college level (he made three throws last season).

Typically highlight videos aren’t much help because they only show the plays where the QB excelled, but I actually do think we can derive something from looking at the high school film on Williams.

This was something that showed up repeatedly, even on his highlight reel. Williams’ first read isn’t open (believe he wanted to throw a bubble screen to number 7). Instead of going to a second read – his outside WR (#1) will come open over the middle with no safety help – he decides to run.

You can get away with this in high school. It doesn’t work against the SEC, at least not consistently.

This play shows off a strength of Williams. When the defense shows its hand early, he is able to exploit it. Again, this showed up multiple times on his highlight reel

On this play, the defense is playing a single high safety. Williams immediately looks to his left at the snap and you can see the deep safety take three steps in that direction by the time Williams snaps back to his right. By moving the safety with his eyes, Williams is able to create a one-on-one situation and a big play.

On the first play above, the defense was lined up in what looked like man coverage but ended up playing a zone. It confused Williams and he took off running. On the second play, the coverage was exactly what he expected and he delivered the ball.

That means that if Todd Grantham can disguise his schemes, the Gators should be able to get Williams out of rhythm. Luckily for the Gators, that’s what Grantham really likes to do.

On this play against Missouri (one of the few that worked), safety Brad Stewart is lined up deep but at the snap immediately races towards the line of scrimmage. That’s because it is third-and-11 and Florida wants Missouri to throw short. By showing the deep safeties, they get exactly what they want. But Stewart is fast enough to converge on the receiver and stop the receiver short of the first down.

Missouri QB Drew Lock delivers the ball here, and Florida forces the punt. But young players tend to hold onto the ball too long. In that case, you would expect Williams to hesitate. If he throws that ball late, Stewart has a pick going the other way. If he doesn’t throw it, then he’s going to have to scramble.

Last year, looking at QB rushing attempts was a sign that Florida’s offense was running efficiently. But I actually think the opposite is the case if Williams runs a bunch. It means that Florida’s scheme is taking away his first option and he’s scrambling because he isn’t going through his progressions.

And none of that takes into account Florida being able to bring pressure on Williams.

Florida’s starters on defense bring back 450 tackles, 44.5 TFL and 21.5 sacks (if you include the 2017 stats for Jonathan Greenard and Marco Wilson). That means these players absolutely have the ability to get into the backfield and be disruptive.

Part of that pressure is skill but part of it is also scheme. Grantham likes sending multiple players from one location to put the offensive line in a position where they have to choose.

Here Jachai Polite (#99) and C.J. Henderson (#5) both come off of the edge. It confuses guard Adrian Magee (#73) and tackle Saahdiq Charles (#77). Magee misses Polite who gets the sack. But even if he had stoned him, Henderson had Charles beat on the edge as well.

Henderson is particularly skilled at disguising when he is coming. That’s how he ended up with three sacks and two forced fumbles last year.

The one area where Florida fans might show some concern is at defensive back. That seems weird to say for a team that has been known for a while now for defensive back play and that has Marco Wilson and C.J. Henderson as the starters, but there are still plenty of questions back there.

The biggest one most fans are asking is whether Wilson will be the player he was before the injury. As a Freshman, Wilson had 10 pass break-ups and looked to be one of the best players in the country. In fact, it was certainly up for debate whether he or Henderson was the better player at the start of last year.

But hidden in the 2017 debacle that was the Florida offense is that the defense gave up 8.0 yards per pass attempt. In fact, while the Florida offense was terrible in 2017, it wasn’t appreciably worse than in 2015 or 2016. The real difference in that Florida team was that the defense wasn’t very good.

Now some of that is due to scheme. I don’t think anyone will deny that Todd Grantham’s scheme fits these players better than Randy Shannon’s. But I do think it is fair to ask why a defense with Wilson, Henderson and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson was getting torched repeatedly.

I expect Wilson to be very good and Henderson to be a high NFL draft pick. If they can stay healthy, this may be a non-issue. But the last time those two were the starting corners, the Gators pass defense wasn’t very good. That’s something to keep an eye on.

Advantage: Florida

Prediction

On paper, Florida should be able to win on both sides of the ball.

Injuries and departures on Miami’s offensive line makes it likely that the inexperienced Florida offensive line will be able to open up some holes. And if the Gators can get the running game going and give Franks just a little bit of time, he should be able to pick apart the defense with a myriad of weapons.

On defense, Florida’s only weakness may be at defensive back, particularly if Wilson or Henderson get dinged. But Jarren Williams is making his first start and you have to expect that Miami will try to rely on its running game. If Florida can make Miami one-dimensional, the Hurricanes may get shut out.

None of this means that the game is a sure thing. As mentioned earlier, Miami was a better team last year than its record. And the Hurricanes’ defense was ferocious at times last season. They’ll likely be able to keep the game close into the third quarter.

But not only does Miami have a rookie QB, they also have a rookie head coach. Dan Mullen may have some flaws, but his 10 years of experience should come into play when preparing a team for an opener of this significance.

There’s also the issue of desperation. Miami can lose this game and still achieve all of its goals. Florida really can’t.

I think Miami keeps the game close in the first half as Feleipe Franks struggles to regain his 2018 form in the first half. But behind some halftime adjustments – and a touchdown pass to Kyle Pitts – the Gators pull away in the second half.

Florida is favored by a touchdown. That’s not enough.

Gators win, 27-17.

Featured image used under Creative Commons license via Photo-Gator