Florida/Miami: What I’m watching for and what I’m not so worried about

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Greetings, Gators, and happy football season!

Just about everyone I know is excited about this Saturday Night’s match-up with Miami. But strangely enough, the excitement isn’t only for the opportunity to watch UF beat a hated in-state rival. Don’t get me wrong, we all want to hear the Cane fans muttering about their five rangs after a 50-point loss. It’s just that after so many tough years, the Gator football program once again seems to be burdened with glorious purpose!

Saturday is about more than a rivalry, about more than just one game. It’s about showing progress on the return path to victory in Atlanta and beyond.

With that in mind, I’ve written about the things I want to see from the Gators Saturday and why I think they are important. I’ve also written about some things that may not look so great but won’t worry me too much.

Check them out below and let me know what you think!

Things I want to see from the Gators Saturday vs Miami:

I want to see a sharp performance by Feleipe Franks – Let’s get right to the heart of the matter here:  In the 18 years of the composite recruiting rankings era (2002-present), only 5 teams have won either the SEC or College Football National Championship without a top-5 recruiting class on their rosters. What each of those 5 teams did have was an elite QB prospect who provided elite play:

• 2004 – Auburn – Jason Campbell – 5-star – SEC Offensive Player of the Year
• 2005 – Georgia – DJ Shockley – 5-star – 1st Team All-SEC
• 2010 – Auburn – Cam Newton – 5-star – Heisman Trophy Winner
• 2016 – Clemson – Deshaun Watson – 4-star – 2nd Team All-American
• 2018 – Clemson – Trevor Lawrence – 5-star – Freshman All-American, 3280 yards passing

If UF is going to become the next team on that list in 2020, it’ll almost certainly feature a monster season from Feleipe Franks. The Gator QB, who was once a 4-star ranked as the nation’s 54th overall prospect, showed tangible progress toward the end of last season.

This Saturday, I’m watching to see if Franks picks up where he left off. Will he make use of the team’s best skill position player group since Tebow left town? Will he make good decisions and consistently connect beyond the line of scrimmage? Time will tell and I can’t wait to find out.

I want to see the OL hold their own, particularly at tackle – Remember 30 seconds ago when you were reading about the importance of Franks putting up big numbers this year? Well, that won’t happen if UF’s rebuilt OL can’t keep him on his feet.

Having lost 4 starters from 2018, this year’s unit has a lot to prove. And while early returns on the new starters have been largely positive, it’s almost show time. I don’t expect perfection or late season cohesion, but the O-line, especially tackles Stone Forsythe and Jean Delance, need to prove that they can slow down the pass rush.

Against Miami, that could be more complicated than it seems.

Delance is dealing with an injury that may or may not allow him to play. According to the depth chart released by UF on Monday, true freshman Michael Tarquin is the next man up.

Moreover, the listed 2nd team OL includes 2 true freshmen, 1 redshirt freshman, 1 redshirt sophomore, and 1 junior (former walk-on Tanner Rowell). It’s important for these starters to play well, because there’s a lot of youth behind them.

I want to see improved LB play – The Gators had a couple of pretty good LBs in 2018 and this segment isn’t a knock on them. Instead, I’m watching to see if the group can take a step forward to become a team strength.

One of last year’s starters returns, as David Reese appears primed for a good senior season. Also, while the somewhat-unpredictable Vosean Joseph is gone to the NFL, athletic sophomore Amari Burney is the popular pick for the defense’s breakout player. Redshirt sophomore James Houston has turned some heads as well, prompting some to believe that the 2019 group could be improved.

If these guys show some every-down reliability, it’ll relieve pressure on a thin secondary, and provide defensive coordinator Todd Grantham with more schematic flexibility.

I want to see a healthy team – With depth concerns already expected to force 3 freshmen DBs into immediate action this weekend, team health is an obvious concern. This starts with Feleipe Franks, of course, but as mentioned above, the depth at OL is a major question mark.  The team needs to get in and out of this weekend in good physical health, especially at QB, DB, and OL.

In addition to hoping for no new injuries, I’ll have my eye on those who were hurt in previous seasons.

Starting CB Marco Wilson, for example, is a guy the Gator Nation is counting on for big things in 2019. He’s a good one, but he’s also been out of action since tearing an ACL during the Kentucky game last fall. If he’s 100 percent healthy, there may not be a better CB tandem in the country than he and C.J. Henderson.

Along those same lines, I’ll have my eye on RB Malik Davis, who showed home-run ability before a couple of major injuries sidelined him in each of the last two seasons.

Now for some things that won’t worry me too much, should they happen Saturday:

I won’t be upset by a narrow margin of victory – This Gator team has a full year in the Mullen system and rolls into their 2019 campaign with a lot of experience on both sides of the ball. This week, they face a Miami team in its new coach’s first game, with a freshman QB at the helm.

It shouldn’t be a nail biter, but a close win won’t automatically upset me for 3 reasons:

• This is a rivalry game, where anything can happen – Don’t forget that Tim Tebow and his national champion teammates only had a 6-point lead over Miami until just over 13 minutes remained in their 2008 contest. If they had a 4th quarter game vs 7-6 Miami that year, the possibility of a tough game this weekend shouldn’t be overlooked.
• Miami coach Manny Diaz is a respected defensive mind who may play to keep things close – Unless he truly isn’t concerned about the fallout of a potential blowout loss against UF, Diaz will probably try to play it safe early on. To me, this means putting his young QB in manageable situations, scheming to limit UF’s big play potential on offense, and manufacturing enough first downs to keep his offense on the field. I don’t expect Miami to win, but coaches with inferior teams do this all the time (making games look closer than they really are). I won’t be too upset if Saturday’s game plays out in similar fashion.
• Florida emerged as a late-game bully at the end of 2018 – Nick Savage had to be proud as the 2018 season wound down last fall. After the Gators’ Strength & Conditioning Coach watched his reshaped roster pull off a 14-0 4th quarter vs South Carolina, a 28-7 second half vs FSU, and a 28-5 second half vs Michigan, it was clear that this team was no longer McElsoft. These Gators are now a four-quarter football team and I expect Mullen to stick to the plan even if the Gators are in a tight one after the half. In other words, a 16-7 UF lead in the third could play right into Mullen’s (and Savage’s) hands.

Occasional pressure on Franks due to OL miscommunication won’t make me crazy – While I’ve already mentioned that I want to see the Gator offensive tackles holding their own, this is still an offensive line that lost 4 of its 2018 starters and 50 combined starts. The OL needs to show they can play, but it’ll be understandable if the communication-based aspects of pass protection are a work in progress. If they stay healthy, the group should improve as the year goes on, and I’m not going to freak out if the newness leads to a sack or two. That said, making sure Franks’ jersey stays clean is one of the biggest keys to this 2019 Gator football season. #nopressure guys.

I won’t be upset about a few conspicuously absent players – After an offseason that featured several discipline issues, players transferring out of the program, and a few freshmen who didn’t make it in, most fans will be doing a head count Saturday, just to make sure nobody else has vanished. If that includes you (I’ll be doing it too…), just remember that game 1 “sprained ankle suspensions” are an annual tradition for our beloved football program. If things don’t get 2017-level crazy, UF should be okay playing at a little less than full strength in the opener.

I’m not worried about who replaces Polite – Some of this offseason’s discussion about the 2019 Gator team focused on who would replace pass-rusher extraordinaire Jachai Polite at the “buck” position. There’s a good reason for this, as Polite roared off the edge for 11 sacks in Todd Grantham’s defense last season. That single-season total was good enough to tie for 5th all-time at UF, but I’m honestly not sweating the loss of such great production.

Why? Because that’s what the featured pass-rushers typically do in Grantham’s defense.

This may be hard to believe, but in 10 years as a defensive coordinator, Grantham’s sack leaders have averaged a whopping 10 per year! They’ve only finished with fewer than 10 in 3 seasons, achieving this lofty annual average at 4 different programs (including 3 in the SEC!) Check out the full list below:

Year – Team – Name – # of sacks
2010 – Georgia – Justin Houston – 10
2011 – Georgia – Jarvis Jones – 13.5
2012 – Georgia – Jarvis Jones 14.5
2013 – Georgia – Leonard Floyd – 6.5
2014 – Louisville – Sheldon Rankins – 8
2015 – Louisville – Devonte Fields – 10.5
2016 – Louisville – James Hearns – 8
2017 – Mississippi State – Montez Sweat – 11
2018 – Florida – Jachai Polite – 11

To me, this is ample reason to believe that Grantham will find somebody to pressure opposing QBs in 2019. Will that be returning DE starter Jabari Zuniga? Louisville transfer Jon Greenard? Or, perhaps a freshman like Mohamoud Diabate? Regardless of who emerges, sacks should be just ahead…

Final Comments

Well, that’s how I see it, but I wanted to close by making one thing abundantly clear: This game is huge for Dan Mullen and the Gator football program.

After a great close to a good 2018 season, after a rough off-season full of distractions, with the ongoing fight for progress in recruiting being tougher than expected, UF must win this ball game. It’s just that simple.

Starting off the season by losing to a Miami team with a brand-new coach and freshman QB would be very ugly. That said, I firmly believe Mullen has the boys ready to play and that they’ll get it done.

Prediction: Gators win, but I couldn’t care less about the score.

Featured image used under Creative Commons license courtesy Photo-Gator