A new season is upon us and hope springs eternal as the Gators take the field this year.
Fans are high on the Gators chances this year. But fans aren’t alone, as the Gators enter the year ranked 8th in the country.
But with that ranking comes expectations that weren’t around last year. So the question is, can the Gators live up to those lofty expectations?
What produces a successful season?
There are really three components to a successful season.
- Talent – 12 of the 20 teams to make the playoff ranked first in their conference recruiting rankings the four years prior. All 20 had a top-3 conference recruiting ranking in one of the prior four years.
- Quarterback – The average Yards above Replacement (YAR) for playoff QBs has been 1.29 (Heisman-worthy) and of the 20 QBs, 5 have a Heisman on their shelf.
- Coaching – The playoff has been dominated by a small number of coaches. The appearance list is led by Nick Saban (5) and Dabo Swinney (4), followed by Urban Meyer (2), Lincoln Riley (2). Nobody else has more than one appearance and even those are mostly very good coaches (Stoops, Peterson, Fisher, Smart, Brian Kelly, Dantonio and Helfrich).
A playoff would be a wonderful outcome this season, but it’s fairly unlikely given these metrics. But a playoff isn’t necessary for Florida to have a successful season. And I do think that these three components, superimposed over the Florida schedule, allow us to understand how the Gators may fare this season.
Talent
By virtue of facing both Miami and Florida State in the non-conference schedule this season, the Gators do face a significant talent upgrade from last season.
Recruiting ranking average from 2016-2019 for Florida’s 2019 opponents. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
If we assume that the cupcake games against Tennessee Martin and Towson are wins, the Gators face four teams that have recruited better than them and six that have recruited worse.
Last season I looked at how often teams ranked in the 11-20 range of talent win games against teams with more (34.4%) and less (69.9%) talent. Were Florida to follow that trend, we would expect the Gators to go 6-4 in these games and have an overall 8-4 season.
Quarterback
Of course, not all “more talented” teams are created equal.
Take Florida State, for instance. While the Seminoles have an average recruiting ranking of 9.8, that ranking has been heading in the wrong (or right, if you’re a Florida fan) direction the past two seasons (11th in 2018 class and 19th in 2019 class).
The Seminoles also have a problem at quarterback. James Blackman played admirably, but poorly, in 2017 before sitting for most of 2018. If Blackman plays like he did in 2017, even an average Feleipe Franks gives Florida a significant advantage.
Florida’s opponents in 2019, and the track records of their starting QBs. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
Auburn is also starting a true freshman QB to start the season in Bo Nix. Nix – the 33rd ranked recruit last season – may be a great player. But his profile is very similar to Jake Fromm, who also started as a freshman in 2017 after an injury to starter Jacob Eason.
Fromm played well that season, but he also was heavily protected. He averaged 19.4 pass attempts per game that season, and in his first seven games averaged just 16 throws. He also had Nick Chubb and Sony Michel in the backfield. Nix is likely going to have to throw the ball more.
Based on pure talent, Florida would be predicted to go 1-3 in games against more talented teams (LSU, Georgia, Auburn and FSU), contributing to that 8-4 record cited above. But the uncertainty at QB, the looming dumpster fire in Tallahassee should Taggart get off to a slow start and having the Auburn and FSU games at home really points towards an advantage for Florida.
I think the Gators go 2-2 in these games instead, advancing their record to 9-3.
Coaching
Dan Mullen did a masterful job last season.
But that shouldn’t be a surprise. Mullen did a really good job at Mississippi State as well.
The reason I say that is that Mullen’s teams consistently outperformed its talent profile. In his time in Starkville, Mississippi State had an average national recruiting ranking of 27.0. Mullen had a winning percentage of 60 percent (69-46).
Kentucky under Mark Stoops has had a national recruiting ranking around 30th and Stoops has a won at a 48-percent clip. Will Muschamp has had a national recruiting ranking around 20th at South Carolina and has won at a 56-percent rate.
It’s pretty clear that Mullen is outperforming his peers who either have similar or more talent than he does. It becomes even clearer when we look at what Mullen has done over the past three years against more and less talented teams.
How Dan Mullen has fared from 2016-2018 against more and less talented opponents. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
As mentioned earlier, the average winning percentage for teams with talent profiles similar to Mullen against more and less talented teams is 34.4 percent and 69.9 percent, respectively. But Mullen has been much more successful than that over the past three seasons, winning 50-percent of his games against more talented opponents, 76 percent against less talented opponents and 60 percent against teams with top-25 level talent.
Were that 60-percent rate against top-25 talent continue this season, combined with wins against teams with significantly less talent (Missouri, Vanderbilt and Kentucky), that would put Florida at 7-3 in these games and a 9-3 overall record.
That’s probably the most likely scenario for Florida. But that’s not what I’m picking this year for the Gators.
Close Calls and Quarterback Play
Among all of the positivity of last season, it’s worth pointing out that against South Carolina, with Florida at 6-3 and behind by 17 late in the third quarter, a 10-3 season looked a long way off.
Seasons turn on plays like this. I can try my best to look at stats and predict what’s going to happen, but the reality is that Feleipe Franks was handing the 2019 QB job to Emory Jones until this point.
If we look at his line prior and after the throw to Grimes, the difference is striking.
Feleipe Franks 2018 statistics prior to and after Trevon Grimes’ 9-yard catch versus South Carolina. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
The Franks of the last 13.5 quarters of the season was a completely different player.
And that’s why I’m picking Florida to go 10-2 in the 2019 season. Franks was inconsistent in the 2018 season. He put up two stinkers against Georgia and Missouri. But for a guy who never had a YAR higher than 0.52 all year long (excluding cupcakes), Franks had YARs of 3.06 vs. Idaho, 1.86 vs. FSU and 0.91 vs. Michigan.
He went from completing 40.3 percent of his downfield (20+ yard) passes to completing 53.3 percent. Even in the 2017 season with everything crumbling around him, Franks only threw 8 INTs. So what we have is a QB who showed a significant uptick in accuracy who doesn’t turn the ball over. That’s a pretty good combination.
The result is that the offense went from 21 explosive plays through the air in 2017 to 37 in 2018. Of those, 16 came in the final four games of the season.
The end result is I think the Gators offense is going to be more explosive this year throughout the season. And an explosive offense will paper over any talent deficiencies that the team may have against less or similarly talented teams.
The issue will come when they play Georgia and LSU. Neither of those games are in the Swamp. Both of those teams have experienced QBs. And both of those teams have significantly more talent on paper than the Gators bring to the party. But even with losses to those two teams, that would be a successful season for Florida.
It would also be an indication that Mullen is continuing to build something sustainable.
The Gators go 10-2 this season and end up in the Sugar Bowl.
Own the Fourth Quarter
I’m proud to announce that Read and Reaction – along with Chomp Talk’s Michael Pfeffer – will be trying something new this season that we’re calling the “Own the Fourth Quarter” show.
The goal is to allow you all to interact with us live during the game.
So during the fourth quarter of each game this year, Michael and I are going to host a show where we break down the first three quarters of the game, discuss what’s going on live during the fourth quarter and if it’s a blowout, talk about what it means in the broader scope of the college football landscape.
We’ll also give some of you who join in live the opportunity to interact and ask questions.
The show kicks off this Saturday against Miami. If you’re interested in taking part, enter your email below so we can send you the link Saturday morning. We’ll also post the link on social media so you can join that way as well. For those of you at the game, it will be released afterward in podcast form.
Thanks so much for all your support! Go Gators!
Fred
Will;
Appreciate your work and articles!
This is well researched and think you’re accurate in your perspectives.
I think the weather will affect the game, with the tropical wave off the east coast of Florida through Sunday. Which means it may well be a defensive tug of war and turn on big plays and turnovers; and be closer than many assume.
Regardless of the outcome we’ll know where the Gators are before we hit the SEC schedule and have a couple of weeks to prepare for September SEC games.
Go Gators! Keep our eyes on the prize – East Division Champs > SEC Champs…NC