The season opener against Miami was supposed to be a foregone conclusion in favor of the Gators.
After all, the Hurricanes had a head coach, quarterback and left tackle all navigating their first games. Normally Miami would’ve wanted to start against Western Tennessee Tech, but Florida was on the schedule instead.
And it looked like Florida was the better team early on. In fact, it felt like Florida had the Hurricanes on the ropes with a first-and-goal at Miami’s seven yard line, up 7-3 and about to make it 14.
But then Feleipe Franks and Lamical Perine messed up the mesh point on a read-option and fumbled the ball. And on the next drive, Franks and Malik Davis screwed up the pitch and fumbled the ball over to Miami again. Then – with less than a minute left in the first half – Jarren Williams delivered a tipped pass over the middle of the field to Brevin Jordan for a TD and all of a sudden, Gator fans got apprehensive.
And they should be after that performance.
Florida turned the ball over four times, and only got one turnover from Miami. The Gators only had two explosive (20+ yard) plays compared to five for Miami. And Florida nearly handed the game over to Miami by throwing an unconscionable interception when all they had to do was run the clock out at the end.
It’s such a weird stat line. By most metrics, Feleipe Franks looks like he played a good game. Whether you use QB rating (151.6) or yards above replacement (1.19), Franks grades out well. But you can’t ignore the fact that he had a hand in all four turnovers.
And a Florida team that averaged 40 carries and 213 yards rushing per game last season only had 27 attempts for 53 yards along with two fumbles.
So how in the world did the Gators pull this one out?
Special Teams
Any time a player posts a picture of his physique on Twitter, fans are quick to comment that Nick Savage deserves a raise. Well, if performing your function as a coach is cause for a raise, then special teams coordinator Greg Knox may be in line for a big one.
The fireworks started early with a fake punt that led to the first of four fourth-down conversions on the night. That fake punt – which essentially functioned as a Miami turnover – was immediately converted into a touchdown on a screen pass to Kadarius Toney.
Later on, Van Jefferson was right there when Miami wide receiver Jeff Thomas muffed a punt deep in his own territory. I was critical on Twitter of Mullen for not targeting Jefferson and Grimes on the offensive side of the ball more. But one thing we have to give him credit for is that Jefferson has bought-in to being a gunner on special teams.
This wasn’t the only time that particular personnel move paid off for Florida either. After Florida’s first drive of the second half fizzled out, Jefferson caught a punt to pin Miami at its own five yard line. After a 3-and-out, the Gators were able to pull within three points with a 33-yard field goal drive.
The special teams weren’t without error. They got tricked on a fake field goal late in the game that nearly helped Miami salt the game away. But when you factor in that Miami kicker Bubba Baxa missed his field goal attempt after Florida stopped Miami on that drive, the Gators special teams were a huge net-positive in this one.
Defense
The Gators tackling was terrible in this game, at least on a few specific plays.
Last year, Florida gave up a bunch of big plays early in the year because they weren’t in the right gaps. Players – usually the linebackers – would get too aggressive and jump to where they thought the back was going to be rather than fulfill their responsibilities.
On this play, even though Miami blocks it pretty well, the Gators defenders are in the right spot. The issue is that none of the six guys who have a shot at Miami running back DeeJay Dallas actually bring him to the ground.
This wasn’t the only instance of poor tackling.
Here, Marco Wilson (#3) forces Miami wide receiver Jeff Thomas outside where he is surrounded by Donovan Stiner (#13) and Jeawon Taylor (#29). Stiner and Taylor just whiff, leaving Thomas to gain an additional seven yards.
And I don’t want to just pick on Taylor because he was not the only culprit, but I suspect that on the play above his drop is too deep (behind the first-down sticks). He then isn’t able to make the tackle on Brevin Jordan who waltzes into the end zone.
This is bad for two reasons. First, it obviously gives Miami a TD heading into the half and the lead. But second, Miami didn’t have any timeouts. Had Taylor brought Jordan down short of the first down, the Hurricanes would have had to rush up to the line of scrimmage to down the ball. Maybe they still score a touchdown, but it would have made Manny Diaz at least consider playing for a field goal.
But here’s the deal. Even with the missed tackles, the Florida defense was absolutely lights-out, especially in the second half.
The Gators only gave up 103 yards in the second half, despite Miami possessing the ball for nearly 13 minutes in the fourth quarter. Franks’ two interceptions both came in that quarter and put the defense in a position where it had to face 25 of the final 30 plays of the game.
The pass interference penalties were bad (especially the one by Marco Wilson on fourth-and-34), but defensive backs start to grab when they get tired.
And when the Gators offense couldn’t get anything going in the third quarter, the Florida defense gave up -2 yards – for the entire quarter.
Miami QB Jarren Williams – who had an impressive YAR of 0.54 in the first half – put up a YAR of -4.34 in the second half. Now, some of that is because he had 8 rush attempts for -17 yards in the second half. But the biggest reason for that number is because he only averaged 3.5 yards per pass attempt in the second half compared to 11.3 in the first.
Williams was harassed all night by the Florida front-seven, surrendering 10 sacks as well as being hurried 5 times.
Here, Jabari Zuniga (#92) beats the Miami left tackle right at the snap. This means the tackle has to hold Zuniga to keep him from getting to Williams. Meanwhile, nose tackle Marlon Dunlap (#91) collapses the pocket as Williams tries to step up, resulting in a sack.
Florida had four turnovers on the offensive side of the ball. Miami scored three points on those turnovers. The 4.6 yards per play surrendered by Florida would have ranked 12th against FBS opponents last year.
Over and over the defense was put into difficult situations. And repeatedly, it came up big.
Offense
And so we come to the weak link.
Florida’s offense averaged 5.5 yards per play, which would have ranked 66th against FBS opponents last season. So if it felt like the Florida offense was inconsistent, it’s because it was.
The problem is that if you are inconsistent, you can’t also turn the ball over.
The Gators didn’t get that memo, turning the ball over four times. Three of those turnovers (the two fumbles and Franks’ second INT) were completely unforced errors.
But I think there are two things we can take from this game on the positive side of the ledger.
First, the fits and stops attributed to Franks were mostly due to the turnovers. It’s hard to get into a rhythm when you can’t stay on the field. Certainly Franks needs to play better, but the reality is that he averaged 9.4 yards per attempt while completing 63 percent of his throws.
Had you told me I’d get that coming into the game, I would have assumed Florida won handily.
The second positive to take away from this game was that while Franks wasn’t consistent, he was the driving force behind all of Florida’s scoring drives.
Feleipe Franks’ stats on scoring drives against Miami. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
The two short scoring drives were on short fields. And when Florida had to have a play, Franks dropped an absolute dime into the hands of Josh Hammond.
But obviously there are things that have to improve. Franks clearly likes throwing to his right. But his splits are pretty ridiculous.
Feleipe Franks’ throws split to left, center and right of the hash marks vs. Miami. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
I charted each of his throws and noted whether they were to the left, right or center of the hash-marks. Only 26 percent of Franks’ throws went to the left side of the field, and five of his seven attempts in that direction were 9 or less yards from the line of scrimmage.
The offensive line will probably get a lot of criticism. Some of it is deserved. But a unit replacing four starters only gave up one sack, 5 tackles for loss and 3 QB hurries. And some of those hurries weren’t even the line’s fault.
The pocket on this play is good. Franks might have wanted to drift a little backwards or take a step to his right, but he didn’t need to bail from the pocket in a direction that made a throw much more difficult for him to make.
You can’t blame the offensive line for this particular play.
However, you can blame the offensive line for only averaging 1.8 yards per rush. The line, in conjunction with the tight ends, was unable to get much push up the middle, making Florida’s offense one-dimensional.
Coaching
Florida ran the ball 28 times and passed it 27 times, but it didn’t seem that even.
Maybe that’s because last year’s team ran the ball 524 times compared to 364 passes. Or maybe it’s because when all Florida had to do at the end was run out the clock, Mullen decided to let Franks throw.
In some respects, that is a good sign because it means he trusts his quarterback. On the other hand, that trust was rewarded with a duck into triple coverage that had no business being thrown.
The fake punt was an absolute masterpiece. Not only did he do it early in the game when there wasn’t any desperation, but he also likely caught Miami with a bunch of young players on the field who haven’t had a whole bunch of game reps.
I was also encouraged that Mullen clearly valued keeping possessions and was willing to go for it on fourth down repeatedly to do so.
But some of the play calling was puzzling. I already mentioned the interception from Franks, but on a third-and-goal from the eight and down by six points, Mullen dialed up a direct run for Franks. That seemed odd considering that the result was essentially the same as an incomplete pass without much of the upside.
And Van Jefferson – who led the team in receptions a year ago – was only targeted twice in the first half. Grimes wasn’t targeted at all. Toney touched the ball three times in the first two drives and was electric. He only touched the ball one more time. There was no misdirection or trickery.
For someone who put on a coaching clinic against Jim Harbaugh back at the Peach Bowl, this was a rather pedestrian performance for Mullen.
Takeaway
Anytime you beat a rival, it’s a big deal. I think that holds true here as well.
Miami was a better team than its 7-6 record last year and had a lights-out defense (ranked 3rd in yards per play vs. FBS opponents) in 2018. The Gators offensive line and Franks struggled more than most thought they would, but it’s possible their struggles are tied to Miami’s ability as much as it is Florida’s offense.
Bill Sikes wrote earlier this week that he wouldn’t be worried about a narrow margin of victory when previewing the game. He said this because rivalry games are always close and it was possible Manny Diaz would play close to the vest to keep the game close.
Of course, he also wanted to see a sharp performance from Franks. One out of two isn’t bad, right?
But here’s the other thing we need to consider. I don’t know what the record of teams is when they turn the ball over four times compared to once for its opponent. I suspect its well below .500.
And remember last year when it seemed like Florida recovered every fumble? Well, the ball hit the ground six times in this game, and Miami recovered five of them (including three on the last drive).
The Perine and Davis fumbles probably don’t ever happen again. The interception that occurred on the ball tipped by Swain is probably caught by Swain 80 percent of the time. The tipped pass that Miami scored its first touchdown on probably gets redirected to at least be incomplete the next time.
Basically, everything that could go wrong for the Gators went wrong. They turned the ball over. Their QB didn’t look very sharp. They fumbled on running plays twice without getting hit. They couldn’t get much push in the running game. They missed a ton of tackles.
Yet, they still came out on top.
To have a special season, every team is going to eventually have a game where they play poorly and are able to overcome it. You can’t do that kind of thing over and over again because eventually you’ll get bitten, but you’re going to experience it at some point.
So perhaps this is a harbinger of bad things to come; that this Gators team isn’t as good as many of us thought coming into the season.
But perhaps this is the game we’ll look back on later and realize that Miami was actually a really good team, that the Hurricane’s defense is stout and that this was a high quality win. Or that this was the game that Florida had to get past to set a path for a special season.
Debating whether the Gators deserved to win or worrying about what the future may hold moving forward is absolutely fair. There are flaws to fix and Mullen is going to have to address them moving forward, but he gets to do so after a win.
That’s way better than the alternative.