Feleipe Franks has not regressed, no matter what the media tells you

Gainesville QB Club

First, a special thanks to the Gainesville Quarterback Club for inviting me to speak in Gainesville this past Tuesday.

It was great to meet over 250 die-hard Gator fans and to test-drive some of these stats that I’ve presented in this article in front of that audience. It’s a really cool organization and the oldest Gator Booster Club in the world. If you’re in the area, you should think about joining.

Four years ago when I started writing for SEC Country, I couldn’t have imagined that I would have shared a stage with Pat Dooley or had an opportunity to diagram Feleipe Franks exploiting a single-high safety coverage 20 feet from Ahmad Black.

But I would be remiss if I didn’t thank everyone who has read my work, subscribed to Read and Reaction or listened to Gators Breakdown over the past four seasons. I wouldn’t have been on that stage without your support and I am truly thankful.

On to the analysis.

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Following the Gators game against Miami, the narrative was that Feleipe Franks didn’t play well.

You had ESPN analyst Greg McElroy saying that he has regressed from last season. You had Kirk Herbstreit decrying his off-field behavior (?) on College Gameday. You had fans on Twitter and Facebook arguing about how long of a leash head coach Dan Mullen should have for Franks.

The noise got so loud that Franks’ mother – Ginger Franks – decided to write something on Twitter about how her son was being treated.

Now, you may say that this is what comes with being the Florida QB. After all, when you come to Gainesville and perform, you get lionized like Tim Tebow, Danny Wuerffel and Steve Spurrier. However, when you don’t perform up to expectations, the criticism can be quick, harsh and personal.

That’s what Franks signed up for, right? Perhaps, yes.

But fans and experts alike should probably be sure that Franks played poorly before leveling too much criticism his way.

How to measure QB play

Heading into the 2017 season, Florida offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier was asked what he needed to do to improve the Florida offense. Nussmeier said the following:

“The one area that we have to address is the red area. The red zone. We haven’t been good in both seasons. Need to improve on that. We spent a lot of time working on that and the players are cognizant of it and we’ll continue to improve that.”  – Doug Nussmeier, August 2017

This is the kind of answer that anyone who has listened to a coach speak about his team has probably heard. Being good in the red zone and converting on third downs are big areas of emphasis that coaches often point to when discussing where to improve.

The problem is, this thinking is flawed.

If you look at the above charts, you can see that there is very little correlation (if at all) between either red zone conversion percentage or third down conversions per game to scoring points. This suggests that converting in the red zone or converting lots of third downs – while useful – are not drivers of effective offenses.

If, however, we look at a couple of other stats, we can find a fairly strong correlation.

These charts suggest that there is a strong correlation between the number of red zone attempts per game and yards per play gained and scoring points.

I don’t want to undersell this point. The data says that converting third downs and converting in the red zone matters much less than how often you get there. And the way you get there more often is by generating explosive plays (because that increases your yards per play average).

This is the foundation of the Yards above Replacement (YAR) stat that I’ve developed over the past year to try and measure QB performance.

As a refresher, YAR takes a QBs yards per pass attempt and yards per rush attempt and compares those to the average value of both in FBS. That allows the calculation of whether a QB is better or worse than his peers.

As an example of how to view different values of YAR, I want to give a few examples from last season.

• YAR = 0, average QB (Kellen Mond, 0.08)
• YAR = -1, terrible (Ty Storey, -1.04)
• YAR = 1, very good (Jake Fromm, 0.95)
• YAR = 2+, Heisman candidate (Tua Tagovailoa, 3.55)

Thus, we can measure how well a QB plays on a game-by-game basis and hopefully understand whether he is improving and where he can improve further.

Explosive plays and Florida’s offense

I get why fans expressed frustration at the way the Florida offense looked against Miami. But we have to look at it through the framework of what makes an offense effective.

The above table shows yards per play gained for Florida from 2015-2018. What we see is that the offense did not crack the top-100 in any of the McElwain/Nussmeier regime. It’s not a coincidence that the offense improved under Mullen in 2018 given that the yards per play rank improved to 32nd in 2018.

This increase came – in large part – because of an increase in explosive plays.

Florida created 26 more explosive plays (20+ yards) in 2018 than in 2017. Not only that, but the Gators executed 29 explosive plays in the last four games of the season (6 vs. South Carolina, 8 vs. Idaho, 6 vs. FSU and 9 vs. Michigan).

This is where the Florida offense struggled against the Hurricanes. The Gators only had two explosive plays the entire game, both in the passing game.

But look at that chart up above again. The Gators averaged 2.0 explosive plays through the air and 2.8 explosive plays on the ground during the 2018 season. Franks got them the two explosive plays through the air. What was missing were the big plays on the ground.

The running game requires that everyone do his job. And the Dan Mullen running game requires that the tight ends do a good job blocking for the running backs. Unfortunately, that was an area where the tight ends struggled against Miami.

On this play, tight ends Lucas Krull (#7) and Kyle Pitts (#84) block the same guy (Romeo Finley, #30). That leaves Miami safety Gurvan Hall (#26) free to force Kadarius Toney (#1) back inside to others who are able to make the tackle.

On this play, Pitts (#84) gets blown back into the backfield by Miami defensive lineman Pat Bethel (#93). Bethel makes the tackle when Florida running back Lamical Perine (#2) tries to cut back, right into Bethel.

On this play, Krull (#7) just runs by Miami linebacker Gilbert Frierson (#3). Frierson then runs directly to make the tackle on Florida running back Dameon Pierce (#27). It all happens so fast that Pierce really doesn’t have a chance to avoid the tackle.

This play – in particular – caught my eye because had Frierson been blocked, this was going to be a big gain.

The running woes of Florida’s offense weren’t all due to poor blocking from the tight ends. There were times that Franks should have audibled to a QB run and didn’t. There were times Toney had a hole to gain 2-3 yards but instead danced around and lost a few. There were times that offensive linemen got stuck on combo blocks, allowing linebackers to make tackles at the line of scrimmage.

But regardless of the reason, the fact remains that the running game was why Florida’s offense struggled to be consistent, much more than the passing game.

Grading Franks’ performance

That’s not to say that Feleipe Franks was perfect. He was not.

But the vitriol that has come his way has been surprising to me. For sure, it was frustrating to see the Gators offense stall, and as the trigger man for that offense, Franks is going to face scrutiny. But I don’t see a lot of evidence of the hot take that “he’s regressed to who he was last year.”

In fact, I see the opposite.

This was reflected both in Franks’ QB passer rating and his YAR. His passer rating for the game was 151.6. For frame of reference, that would have ranked 21st in the country for the 2018 season and was significantly better than his 2018 season passer rating overall.

That efficiency was also reflected in his YAR, which comes in for the game at 1.19. Again, that’s better than Jake Fromm last season (0.95).

Indeed, if we look at how things turned out after the first week of College Football, Franks grades out quite well.

Franks ranked third among all SEC QBs in YAR in their first games. There were only seven QBs with a positive YAR. Those teams averaged 38.4 points per game. The fact that Florida only scored 24 is more a function of the turnovers than Franks’ efficiency.

Of course, those turnovers are a problem, and were the reason Miami was still in the game. But let’s look at them one-by-one.

On the first fumble, Franks and Perine messed up the mesh point. I blame Franks for this one. He has control of the ball until he chooses not to, and in this case allowed Perine to pull the ball away from him.

On the second fumble, that one was purely on running back Malik Davis. The pitch was good and Davis didn’t look it in. It also shouldn’t have been a turnover because Davis was down.

On the first interception, Franks read the defense perfectly and delivered the ball high and a little bit late. But Freddie Swain makes that catch eight or nine out of ten times, and even though he tips the ball, it went right to the Miami defender.

The second interception is on Franks. It looks like Florida was trying to run a stop-and-go and Miami covered it. At that point, he just needed to take the sack and let the clock run.

The mesh point fumble is something that Mullen will make sure is fixed moving forward. And of Franks’ 27 throws, 7.4 percent of them turned into interceptions. His career interception percentage is 2.5. I suspect that Franks is going to do a better job of protecting the ball moving forward through the air.

The reason I suspect that is because of how Franks’ YAR has improved in his time at Florida.

If you look at Franks’ 2017 season, the only two games he had a positive YAR were against Vanderbilt and against Missouri, two games where he came in to relieve either Luke Del Rio or Malik Zaire. Other than that, every game was below average.

His 2018 season was much more encouraging, though he basically hovered around average for much of the season (not counting Charleston Southern) with particularly poor performances against Georgia and Missouri. But in the final three games of the year (Idaho, FSU and Michigan), Franks’ performance took a major step forward.

And that step forward was also present against Miami, as Franks had a YAR of 1.19.

This is particularly encouraging considering Franks’ splits in 2018. Overall, Franks had a YAR of 0.19 or slightly above average. But against teams that finished in the AP Top-25, Franks had a YAR of -0.54.

So if you believe that Miami will end up as a top-25 team, you should be pretty encouraged that Franks was able to acquit himself so well versus the Hurricanes.

Differences Franks is showing on film

Of course, the numbers don’t mean much if Franks is making the same mistakes on film. Fortunately for Gators fans, I don’t think that is the case.

First, a caveat. Franks still makes mistakes. The interception he threw at the end of the game against the Hurricanes is evidence of that. But what I’m really looking for is progress because the question I’m asking is not whether Franks is perfect, but whether he’s getting better.

And I believe the answer to that is a definitive “yes”. That answer is based both on the statistical improvement he has shown, but also what he’s put on film.

On the play below Georgia is in a cover-2 defense. The first rule of the cover-2 is that the safeties have deep responsibilities to the outside. That means the corner can let a receiver go and play underneath. The last place you want to throw against a cover-2 is to the outside and short.

Franks throws this pass to the exact wrong place. The pre-snap alignment of the safeties screams “cover-2”. Then the safeties run back and towards the outside. He needs to know to come off of his outside receiver and dump the ball off to an open Lamical Perine (#22). Instead, he throws the ball into the teeth of the defense – without much conviction – and it turns into an easy interception.

Conversely, on this play Franks recognizes cover-2. The place where you can exploit this coverage is right down the middle, over the linebackers. Mullen had the perfect play called against this defense, but Franks has to know that’s where he should go with the ball and he gets the ball to tight end Kyle Pitts (#84) quickly, before the safety can get over to break up the pass.

It isn’t just that coverage where Franks is getting better. On the play below from the Georgia game, the Bulldogs are in a single high safety (1-Hi) look.

Franks’ responsibility here is to identify what that safety is doing. Instead, he locks on to his deep receiver (Grimes, #9) and leads the Georgia safety right into the play. Look at Franks’ head on the entire play. After faking the ball to the running back, his entire body is pointed towards the right side of the formation before he throws the ball.

Additionally, Franks underthrows the ball to Grimes just a little bit. Because he didn’t hold the safety and because the ball hung up a little bit, it became an easy pass breakup.

But against Miami, Franks executes this play correctly. Miami is also in a 1-Hi look. But this time, Franks has his eyes and body turned towards the left side of the offense right at the start. His first throw is Hammond down the middle, but he was confident enough to not lock on to that from the start.

Franks also threw the ball to Hammond right on stride. However, even if he’d hung the ball up just a little bit, the safety is so late getting over that he probably wouldn’t have been able to break the pass up. But because Franks hits Hammond without slowing him down, he is able to run for another 15-20 yards after the catch.

Takeaway

Looking at the 24 points scored and the way the offense stalled at times, it is understandable fans came away from the Miami game wanting more.

But what Franks showed during this game should be an encouragement to Gator Nation.

All the statistics point towards him being effective through the air. The issue wasn’t his efficiency, but the turnovers that limited his chances and the lack of a running game.

Mullen and Hevesy will eventually figure out how to get the running game going. And most of the turnovers are correctable mistakes.

That doesn’t mean Franks is going to be perfect. He likely is going to make some more head-scratching decisions throughout the season. But every QB does that to some extent.

And what are the other options anyway? Can Emory Jones or Kyle Trask step in and be completely mistake free to lead the Gators to glory?

Everyone wants to believe that there is some magical QB waiting in the wings who will be able to perform better than Franks. But I believe that the statistics and film suggest that Florida has a pretty good QB behind center right now.

Fan response and responsibility

Ms. Franks said something on Twitter that I have had multiple parents reach out to me to express privately. One particular parent told me the following:

“As a parent, it’s disappointing to know your child is subject to such negativity from the very people we thought would support him.”

That’s a sad commentary on the way these players are treated, particularly considering that in this instance, Florida beat Miami. It also indicates that Ms. Franks was just able or willing to say publicly what other parents feel but do not feel willing to express openly.

The passion of Gator fans is part of what makes college football and The Swamp special. But that passion can go overboard to a place where it is no longer criticism and instead becomes personal.

I’d suggest that when players screw up on the field, they expect and understand being criticized for that play. But I’d also suggest that if you say or tweet something that makes someone’s mother question whether her son would be better off not being a Gator, maybe it’s time to look in the mirror.

Feleipe Franks and his “maturity problem”

Fan response to Franks’ play is one thing. After all, fan is short for fanatic.

The media response to Feleipe Franks’ play against Miami has been abhorrent.

When unable to defend his take that Franks had regressed in the wake of Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence having a much worse night against a much worse defense, ESPN analyst Greg McElroy attacked his maturity.

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Did Trevor Lawrence punt the ball in the stands postgame? Did he head butt an opposing player after whistle? Did he head for the camera after scoring a TD only to follow it with an INT? Franks “regression” starts with maturity.

— Greg McElroy (@GregMcElroy) August 30, 2019

The same sentiment was expressed on ESPN College Gameday by Kirk Herbstreit, who stated the following:

“So much for maturity. So much for showing he’s the CEO of that team and that offense. He showed a lack of that even worse against Miami than he showed all of last year. If Florida ever wants to ever get serious about winning the SEC East, their leader and their quarterback needs to show maturity or they’ve got no chance of challenging anybody in the East.” – Kirk Herbstreit

So I have a question for these and other media types: what about Jameis Winston?

After Winston’s behavior got him suspended – SUSPENDED – for a game against Clemson in 2014, Herbstreit said the following:

“There are much bigger issues for this team than Jameis Winston and what he did. They can’t run the football. The defense is giving up a lot of yards through the air, and if they keep playing the way they have in the first three or four weeks they’re not going to go undefeated.” – Kirk Herbstreit

So…maturity is important for Feleipe Franks when he expresses himself on the sideline, gets no penalties and throws a bad interception, but maturity is not a big issue when Winston gets himself suspended?

The problem is that this is incredibly lazy thinking. It’s easy to look at the turnovers and ascribe them to Franks’ attitude rather than simply say he made a poor play. Because that’s what happened: he made a bad throw.

Florida State didn’t win because Winston was mature (he wasn’t) any more than Florida is going to lose because Franks is immature (he isn’t). If Florida loses, it will be because Franks and the team played poorly, not because of his attitude or level of maturity.

At a bare minimum, Herbstreit should laud Franks for putting up with all the venom of his own fan base and the garbage coming from his own network. Franks has not gotten any ridiculous penalties for unsportsmanlike conduct on the field, been in any trouble with the law, or been in trouble with the Florida program. He’s even apparently paid for his own crablegs.

That’s true maturity.

Featured image used via Creative Commons license courtesy MGoBlog