Three things to focus on in the Gators matchup against UT-Martin

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The value of cupcake games to fans is rather minimal.

This makes sense. Seeing Florida beat Charleston Southern 56-3 or Idaho 63-10 could be seen as a waste of time. But there’s a reason these games are scheduled.

Florida clearly has some things to work on coming out of the win against Miami, and this affords them an opportunity to work on those things without risking a loss.

So here’s a few things I’m looking for the Gators to improve on that may seem a little bit hidden, but could portend success or failure as Florida moves into the SEC schedule.

Penalties

Florida had four turnovers in the game against Miami. But that wasn’t the only place where Florida showed a lack of discipline.

The Gators also had nine penalties for 100 yards in the game, breaking down the following way:

• 3 Pass Interference
• 2 Unnecessary Roughness
• 2 Holding
• 1 Unsportsmanlike Conduct
• 1 False Start

You could make the case that the pass interference and holding penalties are just a function of playing hard. Those kinds of penalties you can live with, as they are physical errors rather than mental ones.

However, I would argue that getting a PI penalty on fourth-and-34 is a mental mistake. If you combine that with a false start and the three after whistle penalties, Florida clearly showed that it can improve its discipline.

I expected that to occur last season after Dan Mullen took over. As a head coach at Mississippi State, his teams averaged 5.1 penalties per game. In that same time-frame, Florida averaged 7.4 penalties per game.

However, Florida averaged 7.9 penalties per game during the 2018 season under Mullen, which was the exact same as the 2017 season under Jim McElwain.

The nine penalties against Miami are alarming when placed within that context. Florida doesn’t have the margin of error to just give away 50 yards to teams like LSU or Georgia.

Avoiding those sorts of mental mistakes starts by drilling good habits against UT-Martin.

Defensive line terror

Florida harassed Miami in its backfield all game long, to the tune of 16 tackles for loss (TFL) and 10 sacks.

That’s a healthy ratio of 23.2 percent of tackles being for a loss and 14.5 percent of tackles going for a sack. To put that in perspective, the ratios for Florida’s defense last year were 9.4 and 3.8 percent. The number one defense in 2018 (Clemson) had ratios of 13.2 and 5.2 percent.

That’s why the pressure Florida was able to get was so impressive. This wasn’t a cupcake. Regardless of Miami starting multiple freshmen up-front and a redshirt freshman at QB, this was still a Power-5 team.

Making a quarter of its tackles for loss is an unrealistic rate to sustain. But if Florida’s defense can maintain a rate similar to Clemson, the Gators are going to go from having a good defense (ranked 37th in yards per play in 2018) to elite (4.6 yards per play vs. Miami would have ranked 12th last season).

This is important because the 12th best defense last season gave up 18.3 points per game vs. FBS opponents while the 37th best defense gave up 23.2. That may not seem like a huge change, but over the course of a season, it makes a big difference.

In fact, if we keep Florida’s points scored the same as 2018 and just change points allowed from 22.2 (actual given up) to 18.3, it’s worth 1.05 wins over a 13-game schedule. For a team that went 10-3 last season, that additional win could mean the difference between making or being left out of the playoff.

Last season, the pressure from Florida’s front-seven tended to ebb and flow. In its three losses, the Gators totaled two sacks, with 35 during its 10 wins.

The 10 sacks against Miami is likely an anomaly. Particularly in this game, you would expect UT-Martin to try and establish the run which would limit opportunities.

But if the Gators don’t get pressure on Skyhawks QB John Bachus when he drops back to pass, that’s an indication that those 10 sacks were more Miami than Florida.

Tight Ends and Toney

Tight end Kyle Pitts may have only had three catches, but two of them were huge against Miami.

The first was a route down the middle of the field against a two-deep coverage where he held onto the ball for an 18-yard gain even though he was hit almost as he caught the ball. That catch led to a field goal.

The second was a screen pass that Pitts took from the 13-yard line down to the 3, setting up the go-ahead touchdown.

The point is that when Pitts got the ball, Florida scored.

The same can be said for wide receiver Kadarius Toney.

Yes, Toney will sometimes turn a 2-yard gain into a 5-yard loss. Yes, he isn’t always the best route runner or blocker (though he’s better than you think at that).

But when Toney touches the ball, good things happen. Toney touched the ball three times on the Gators first two drives. One he turned into an electric 66-yard touchdown reception. The other two contributed to the drive that ended in a Franks fumble in Miami’s red zone. Florida gained 130 yards on those two drives.

Toney only touched the ball one other time in the game in 10 more possessions. Florida gained 174 yards on those possessions.

It’s not as simple as just getting the ball to Toney and Pitts. But the offense is different when those two are touching the ball.

Van Jefferson is a good player. Trevon Grimes may eventually develop into a difference maker. But thus far only Toney and now Pitts have shown the ability to truly move the needle on offense.

Toney is valuable enough that I suspect Florida won’t target him much at all against UT-Martin to avoid any chance of injury. But I believe Pitts (and to some extent Kemore Gamble and Lucas Krull) are the key to turning this from an efficient offense to an explosive one in 2019.

Last season, Mullen focused heavily on working on routes over the middle against Idaho in preparation for Florida State. I’m looking to see if he puts a similar emphasis on getting the ball to the tight ends in this one as well, whether over the middle or through more creative means.

Mr. Two-Bits

George Edmondson (aka Mr. Two-Bits) is being honored by the Gators program this weekend after passing away earlier this summer.

Students are being encouraged to wear his traditional shirt and tie for the game, and his family will serve as the honorary Mr. Two-Bits for the game.

College football is great because of its traditions, and this is one of the best. I vaguely knew the origin story of this tradition, that Edmondson started the cheer during a game against the Citadel when Gators fans were booing the players.

Edmondson is quoted as saying, “They’re just kids out there, they’re doing the best they can, we ought to cheer for them.”

Again, I knew that part of the story. What I didn’t know until I read a little bit more about him this week was the next thing that he said.

“Every time they make a mistake, we’re going to cheer for them.”

Mr. Edmondson understood that there are things more important than bad interceptions and poor tackling. That these are kids who are putting themselves out there and risking being exposed in front of 90,000 fans who have gone from just being able to boo them in the stadium to ripping them on Twitter.

In a week coming off of pretty biting criticism of Florida QB Feleipe Franks, I think it’s appropriate to reflect on the spirit behind Mr. Two-Bits’ words and the power of his legacy.

In All Kinds of Weather means something precisely because of men like George Edmondson. We can honor him by remembering that.

The pick

These games are called cupcakes for a reason.

Yes, the SEC struggled last week in a few situations like this. And yes, Florida struggled somewhat against Miami.

But I think the Hurricanes are a good team. Florida also was able to knock off (hopefully) any rust from the offseason in that game, and I expect them to come out humming.

The only real question is whether UT-Martin will still have a better record than Tennessee when the day is done.

Florida (-44.5) wins, 63-6

Picks this season: 1-0, 0-1 ATS