Every program has a down year every once in a while. And every team has a game where they come out flat.
The fact that for 31 straight years, Florida was able to avoid having either bite them against Kentucky is incredible.
I have to admit that I was really down on the team’s prospects after last year’s loss to the Wildcats.
The McElwain PTSD had me fearing the worst, and with road games against Tennessee and Mississippi State on the horizon, things were looking pretty grim.
But it turned out Kentucky was a really good team last year. And it also turned out that the Gators were as well, just not in time for the duel with the Wildcats.
In that game, Florida’s defense was overpowered by Kentucky’s running game and Benny Snell. Snell is now gone.
In that game, Dan Mullen put the game on QB Feleipe Franks’ shoulders (38 attempts) and he wasn’t up to the task (passer rating of 108). Franks looks like he may be up to the task now.
So things have changed a lot between last year’s game and this one. The question is, have things changed enough for the Gators to come out on top?
Kentucky’s Offense vs. Florida’s Defense
After the horrible injury to starting QB Terry Wilson, Kentucky has a huge question mark in backup Sawyer Smith.
Smith transferred from Troy, where he started the final seven games after an injury to starter Kaleb Barker. Barker isn’t a slouch, having put up a passer rating of 163.6 in his time at Troy so it isn’t a scarlet letter that Smith was behind him on the depth chart.
Smith was okay at Troy. His yards above replacement (YAR) was -0.21, indicating that he played slightly below average. That’s pretty admirable for a backup QB thrust into a new role.
The issue for Kentucky is when you look at Smith’s splits sorted by the quality of defenses played.
Splits for Sawyer Smith in 2018 as a starter at Troy. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
Smith’s first four starts were against the four worst defenses (and pass defenses) he would face, and he acquitted himself quite well. But his last three starts were against pretty good defenses and his stats took a nosedive, particularly in his 13-27 performance against Texas State where he only threw for 79 yards.
There’s obviously limited film to study on Smith, but he does seem to have pretty good touch.
On this play, the free safety blitzes. This immediately tells Smith that he has one-on-one coverage on the outside. Smith delivers the ball perfectly to wide receiver Ahmad Wagner (#14) who breaks a tackle and scores an easy touchdown.
Wagner is a big dude (6’5”, 242 lbs). Florida is likely going to be without starting cornerback C.J. Henderson. If so, the largest corner they can put on the field is going to be Kaiir Elam. Elam is listed at 6’2” and 179 lbs.
There’s been some rumblings that linebacker Amari Burney (6’2”, 222 lbs) has been getting some reps at the star position. That would make sense if he’s going to cover Wagner, as he isn’t as tall but would have the weight to ensure he doesn’t get pushed around.
On the other side of the ball, Florida’s defense has been really good. The Gators have surrendered 495 yards in its two games at a 4.3 yards per play clip, which would have ranked 3rd in FBS last season.
The Gators also have 26 tackles for loss and 15 sacks on the season. When 13 percent of plays (not just pass plays) are ending in sacks, that indicates that your defensive line is doing its job.
That is further reflected by the 2.2 yards per rush allowed, though iterestingly, Florida has only generated one turnover (Elam’s interception versus UT-Martin) on the defensive side of the ball thus far. That’s a curious thing considering the amount of pressure the Gators have been getting.
You’d expect that if Florida can stop the run like they’ve been doing, the pressure is going to get to Smith and force a couple of turnovers.
Advantage: Florida
Kentucky’s Defense vs. Florida’s Offense
I mentioned above that in last year’s game, Mullen tried to let Franks win the game and he was unable to do it.
Well, he’s been asked to do that very thing in the first two games of the year and has been able to come through (minus the turnovers against Miami).
This Feleipe Franks is a far cry from the QB who started the season last year. He’s not perfect, but if he’s playing a defense that has holes, I do think he’s going to be able to find them.
Florida’s running game has been a different story. After struggling mightily against the Hurricanes (1.8 yards per rush), the Gators were better against UT-Martin (6.1 yards per rush). But that’s UT-Martin, and chances are Kentucky is much closer to Miami’s defense than to the Skyhawks.
But the Wildcats haven’t exactly been the ’85 Bears.
Kentucky has surrendered 733 yards to Toledo and Eastern Michigan, 503 of that through the air. The 5.3 yards per play that the Wildcats have surrendered thus far would have ranked 47th in FBS last season. Yes, Toledo and Eastern Michigan are both FBS teams, but they also aren’t the teeth of an SEC schedule.
Look at the film of last week’s game against Eastern Michigan and it becomes clear where – or who – the Eagles were targeting. Kentucky is starting redshirt freshman Jamari Brown at corner and Eastern Michigan was able to hit big plays when he was involved.
Without knowing the coverage call on this play, it’s hard to determine whether this is Brown’s fault or not. But I think based on what the safeties do at the snap that the throw eventually goes to a zone that Brown is supposed to be covering.
Brown (#32, boundary corner at bottom of screen) ends up following the deep receiver but everybody else on the field is playing a zone. This kind of thing isn’t unusual for a young corner. Jim Harbaugh’s scheme in 2017 against Florida’s young corners had receivers flashing in and out of zones to confuse defensive backs, and I suspect that Florida will challenge Brown in the same way.
If this was an isolated incident, I’d say that every young corner makes mistakes. But that wasn’t the only mistake for Brown in this game.
Here, Brown (top boundary corner) bites on a pump fake and lets his man run right by him. Now, he is supposed to have deep safety help, but he’s also trailing his receiver by seven yards after getting completely turned around. That allows the QB to throw the ball more vertically down the field, preventing the safety from getting over.
Florida has not shown yet that they have one receiver who can break big plays consistently. But what the Gators do have is outstanding route runners who will take advantage of bad technique.
When C.J. Henderson went down against Georgia last year, the Bulldogs mercilessly targeted his replacement, C.J. McWilliams. I expect Florida to do the same with Brown.
The way you prevent Florida from taking advantage of Brown is to get pressure on Franks.
Kentucky does have six sacks on the season, but only two of those are from defensive linemen. The same trend applies for tackles for loss, as only three of 12 are from the defensive line.
Kentucky does play a 3-4 defense and linebacker Joshua Paschal rushes the passer a lot, adding 3 TFL and 1 sack, but the fact remains that Kentucky is not getting a ton of pressure from its front-four.
That means the Wildcats are going to have to blitz. Blitzing is great when you get to the QB. But blitzing leaves your corners on an island if you don’t get home.
Florida’s offensive line has had trouble getting push in the run game. But the Gators have only allowed two sacks and have held up rather well in passing situations.
Advantage: Florida
Prediction
Benny Snell, Terry Wilson and C.J. Conrad terrorized the Gators defense last season.
But all three of those players are not going to be on the field Saturday. Nor will All American linebacker Josh Allen, who was a first round pick in the NFL Draft.
Florida has been inconsistent in 2019, but they’ve still been significantly better than they were early in 2018. Franks has to be riding high after completing 90+ percent of his passes against UT-Martin, and you would also expect that Mullen lit a fire under his offensive line for its performance in the running game.
Here’s the reality. Kentucky under Mark Stoops is a really good program. But it was a 9-win team (based on point differential) last season that went 3-1 in one-score games (4-1 if you don’t think UK scored on the last play against Florida).
This year’s team isn’t better than that one, even with Terry Wilson. That’s not a knock on Kentucky, but rather a compliment to the players that it lost from last year’s squad.
Sawyer Smith likely will play better than a less experienced QB would in the same situation. But we’re still talking about Troy’s backup QB last season.
We’re also talking about a Florida defense that is getting to the QB at an incredible rate. I’d be shocked if Todd Grantham isn’t able to bait Smith into a couple of interceptions with some creative coverages.
Kentucky’s defense only gave up 16.8 points per game last season, but has thus far surrendered 20.5 in 2019 to lesser competition. With Wilson out, the Wildcats defense has to be better than it was last year to win this one.
I just don’t think they have it in them.
Florida (-8) wins, 34-14.
Picks this season: 2-0, 1-1 ATS