What lessons can Florida learn from the loss to Georgia?

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Nobody likes learning lessons. Rarely does that learning come from pleasant experiences.

And that’s the situation for the Florida Gators and Dan Mullen, who were taught a bunch of lessons in a most unpleasant loss to Georgia on Saturday afternoon.

The hope is that those lessons take quickly, instead of festering like they did last season in a loss to Missouri. Otherwise Florida could see its spot in a big-time bowl game evaporate.

The biggest goals for the season evaporated on Saturday, and Florida would be wise to pay attention to the things that cost it this game against Georgia.

Yes, the Gators are “seven points behind Georgia.” But anybody who watched that game knows the gap is wider than that.

So what lessons can we take from Saturday?

Official chicanery

I apparently have no idea what a catch is. If you’re a Florida fan, you likely don’t know either.

The ball that Georgia wide receiver Lawrence Cager “caught” to extend Georgia’s first touchdown drive was a joke. The ball hit the ground and Cager clearly didn’t have control when it did. The fact that replay was utilized and that wasn’t deemed as enough evidence to overturn the call is astounding to me.

But that play didn’t lose this game. Would it have been nice to have held Georgia to another field goal and only be down 6-0? Absolutely.

But Florida still had the opportunity to stop Georgia on that drive. They had the opportunity to stop Georgia on a bunch of drives. But they were only able to force two punts on the day and no three-and-outs.

So yes, I sympathize with the fact that the replay official got this one wrong and Florida felt screwed. But I also refuse to blame the officials when the opportunity was right there.

Running the ball is kinda, you know, important

We knew Florida wasn’t going to run the ball for 250 yards.

But the Gators were especially futile running the ball against Georgia, with a total of -3 yards prior to the final drive of the game. At that point, Georgia was fine allowing the Gators to run clock in exchange for a few yards.

Yes, this includes the 29-yard loss attributable to the two sacks of Trask, but that still means that the running backs were only responsible for 26 total rushing yards prior to that final drive. Perhaps even more disturbing, Florida only had 11 called runs on its first seven drives and only had 17 altogether.

After the South Carolina game, I highlighted how Florida’s offense was much more effective when it was balanced and far less effective when it went pass-happy.

Mullen clearly didn’t believe he could run the ball against Georgia’s front. But after three called runs on the opening drive – when the Gators moved the ball pretty well before failing to convert on fourth down – Mullen called eight runs on the next six drives.

At some point, you have to challenge your offensive line to pick up a few inches.

The Gators miss Feleipe Franks

I think Kyle Trask has played about as well as could be expected in relief of the injured Feleipe Franks. I also think that he’s better at reading defenses than Franks, and perhaps a better pure passer.

But that doesn’t mean he’s a better quarterback.

One of the reasons I developed my Yards above Replacement (YAR) metric is because I wanted a way to quantify the contributions a quarterback makes both through the air and on the ground. And by that metric, Trask has been just about average (YAR = -0.08).

One of the things that had me excited about the Gators in 2019 was that Franks appeared to have turned a corner late in 2018. He turned the ball over a bunch in games against Miami and Kentucky, but his per-play averages were really good, indicating that when the turnovers normalized, Florida’s offense would be really good.

Indeed, this is what we see when looking at YAR on a per-game basis for both QBs in the chart above. Franks played below average against South Carolina, but played really well in the second half. From that point on, he had a positive YAR.

Trask took over and played really well, particularly against Kentucky and Tennessee. But he has now had a negative YAR in three of the last four games.

That’s because of two things. First, he is taking a bunch of sacks, which negatively impacts his per-rush averages. You may think that isn’t fair, but that’s the point of YAR. Those two sacks he took against Georgia absolutely killed drives for the Gators. Those things matter.

The other reason is that Trask’s yards per pass attempt has decreased considerably, averaging 7.4 yards per attempt in each of the last four games. Unfortunately, I think this is what we should probably expect from Trask.

He completed 77.3 percent of his passes in his first four games this season, but has only completed 61.8 percent in his last four. His yards per completion has been relatively steady, which means that the drop in his yards per attempt is related to that drop in accuracy.

Finally, one of the hidden things that Franks did to add value is that he contributed a lot in the short-yardage running game.

This is a fourth down against Miami. Franks is able to get to the outside and gain the one yard for the first down. He was asked to do this repeatedly both last year and this year and it made a huge difference, particularly with the offensive line struggles in 2019.

That component of the attack was clearly missing against Georgia.

That’s not Trask’s fault, as that’s not something that he does very well. But Florida had multiple drives stall because it wasn’t able to get first downs in short yardage. Again, that matters.

The wrong coach is getting blamed, at least on Twitter

After – and even during – the game, Todd Grantham got much of the ire of the Gators faithful.

It’s easy to understand why, considering Georgia went 12-18 on third down and the Florida defense couldn’t get off the field.

But Georgia only averaged 5.9 yards per play, nearly a yard below its season average. The Bulldogs also were unable to establish the run as a weapon, only registering one explosive play (30-yard run from Swift on the last drive of the half).

In fact, had the pass to Lawrence Cager been reversed correctly to an incomplete pass, Grantham’s defense would have held Georgia to 19 points. That should be enough to win the game.

Lost in the defensive struggles were plenty of struggles by other units.

The Gators didn’t successfully convert a third-down until its final drive. They blew three timeouts (one critical at the end) because of incorrect personnel groupings. They had one drive end because of a false start on third-and-1 after a shift by Georgia and another two due to sacks. They threw the ball on fourth-and-inches and ran the ball on third-and-1.

They used nearly seven minutes (6:50) of the clock on a 17-play drive that started with 10 minutes left. This isn’t an isolated incident. Mullen oversaw a similar drive (15 plays, 4:54 with 5:43 left in the game) versus LSU with only two timeouts.

I heard it suggested that the long drive against Georgia was because the defense needed time to rest. Well, there wasn’t time for that. It’s a strategic error to not take a shot or two downfield. Yes, Georgia was giving them 5-yard runs. That doesn’t mean you have to take it.

The effect of the long drive was further exacerbated by another strategic error: not attempting an onsides kick.

Look, I know that recovering onsides kicks is rare. But the difference between Georgia taking over at its own 30 and taking over slightly past midfield is negligible. One first down puts the game away, so field position is far less important than the opportunity to get the ball back.

Grantham certainly deserves to take some heat for his team not being able to stop third downs. But Grantham isn’t the one responsible for offensive personnel groupings or game management decisions.

I think Mullen’s a great coach, but this was not his finest hour.

Experienced QBs and Grantham

One thing I do think we can start to question about Grantham is whether his scheme breaks down against experienced quarterbacks.

Last season, Florida’s defense played poorly against Fromm, Drew Lock, Jake Bentley and Terry Wilson. All but Wilson had significant experience coming in to the season, and Wilson was able to catch the Gators early in the year before they had a chance to truly understand the scheme.

This season, Florida’s defense has played poorly against Joe Burrow and Fromm. Now LSU and Georgia are excellent teams, but there does seem to be a pattern of experienced, above average QBs being able to deduce what Grantham is doing and exploit the Gators on third down.

The bend-but-don’t-break style works great when you’re getting turnovers or when the opposing offense makes a mistake. But Fromm just took what the defense gave him until the Gators defense made the mistake. Then he delivered a perfect strike to Cager for the backbreaking touchdown.

And I think it’s also free to hold Grantham responsible for the busted coverages. The throw to Cager is just the latest example of a receiver getting wide-open behind the Gators defense.

 

 

Neither Jarrett Guarantano nor Bo Nix were able to make the Gators pay. Fromm and Burrow were.

Regardless, the idea that Grantham is a huge difference maker should be under some additional scrutiny. He spoke about not allowing the QB to know who is rushing at any given time.

Apparently that’s easier to figure out with time and experience.

Recruiting Matters

I’ve spent a lot less time talking and writing about recruiting this year. That’s because it doesn’t look to be changing anytime soon, not because it doesn’t matter.

Florida got zero pressure on Jake Fromm the entire game. That was with Jabari Zuniga (3-star), Adam Schuler (3-star), Kyree Campbell (3-star) and Jonathan Greenard (3-star) as the four main pass rushers. That isn’t meant to denigrate those players. They have all proven to be excellent, SEC-caliber players.

But Georgia’s offensive line has four players who were ranked in the top-90 nationally when they were recruited.

Was there some holding? Yes. Is Florida battling through injuries? Absolutely.

But the reality is that injuries are such a glaring issue precisely because there isn’t much depth.

This offseason, I looked at the likelihood that a player got drafted based on his recruiting ranking. The likelihood of a 5-star player getting drafted was way higher than even the best 4-star player, indicating a much higher level of production.

Florida’s roster contains one 5-star (Brenton Cox, not eligible), 38 4-stars and 35 3-stars. Georgia’s roster boasts 14 5-stars, 45 4-stars and 25 3-stars. It’s a talent mismatch.

The problem is you can’t use that as an excuse. When I wrote about recruiting extensively last offseason, the counter narrative was that Mullen had to “show it on the field” to get the elite recruits to come to Gainesville. He then had an excellent first season that was followed up with a recruiting class that ranked very similar to his first, particularly when you factor in non-qualifiers.

There is no doubt that recruiting is trending up compared to the McElwain regime. But it’s not really where it needs to be to compete with Georgia and Alabama on a regular basis.

The 2020 class is right where the 2019 class was last season: fighting for position somewhere between 7th and 12th. If you’re relying on on-field performance to provide a significant bump, this loss certainly doesn’t help.

Takeaway

When Florida lost to LSU, there were a lot of encouraging things to come away with.

The offense had almost kept up with the vaunted LSU attack and Kyle Trask had played well on the road in a harsh environment. Sure the defense had been shredded, but that was without the services of defensive ends Jabari Zuniga and Jonathan Greenard. More than anything, Florida looked like a team that came prepared to play.

The same can’t be said of the Gators squad that showed up against Georgia.

The team certainly played hard. And had you told me at the beginning of the season that Florida would only lose to Georgia by a touchdown, I’d have told you that was a pretty good result.

But that was before Florida came out and burned those two timeouts on its opening drive because it couldn’t get the correct personnel on the field. That was before the false start on third-and-1 after a shift by the Georgia defensive line that Gary Danielson had seen on tape. And that was before Lawrence Cager essentially salted the game away on a 52-yard touchdown pass without a Florida defensive back in sight.

That’s why this loss to Georgia is so much more disappointing than the loss to LSU.

It’s a little bit easier to accept getting beat by a team that just out-talents you. It’s much harder to accept when a team beats you because it is more prepared, especially coming off a bye week.

Dan Mullen said in his post-game press conference that there is still a lot of football left and plenty to play for. In many ways, he’s correct.

But any dreams of gaining entry to the SEC Championship came crashing down with that pass to Cager and then the subsequent seven-minute touchdown drive that brought Florida to within one score but also completely eliminated any margin for error.

That margin was clearly far too slim and Georgia walked off the field victorious after hitting a 22-yard completion to Eli Wolf.

The fact that the completion to Wolf came on a third-and-long just makes it sting a little bit more.

Used via Creative Commons license courtesy Tammy Anthony Baker