The Gators came out flat against Missouri in an early game at Columbia and suffered a tough road loss – wait, they won?
You wouldn’t have known that by looking at Twitter, particularly after the Gators took a 6-3 lead into halftime. You might not have even known that after that game, after the debate of whether Kyle Trask should remain QB or if it’s time for Emory Jones to take over raged.
The optimist would look at that dialogue and suggest that the chatter both during and after the game is due to the expectations that Dan Mullen has set. The pessimist would look at the same dialogue and feel like those people are sucking the joy out of a season that has the potential to finish top-5 (10-3 LSU was ranked 6th to end last season) and a win better than the 2018 campaign.
After all, Willie Taggart didn’t last two seasons in Tallahassee. Dan Mullen is 19-5.
If the game against Missouri proved anything, it’s that both camps are probably right.
For those hoping for championships from Mullen and company immediately, it’s pretty clear that this team is at least a couple of years away. For those willing to be patient, it’s pretty clear that this team is at least a couple of years away.
But I think both sides can agree that a 23-6 road win against Missouri sure beats the alternative that Gators fans have experienced the previous two seasons.
Kyle Trask Comparisons
Kyle Trask takes holds onto the ball too long, takes too many sacks and isn’t much of a running threat.
But that’s been the case all season.
Nobody paid too much attention when he was dominant against Tennessee through the air. Nobody cared when he was gutting out a knee injury to get a convincing win against Auburn. And nobody cared when he was making Gators fans believe in this team in a shootout with LSU.
But the loss to Georgia has some fans caring as they look towards the 2020 season. And looking towards 2020 makes them ask whether Trask is able to win this team a championship and would the Gators be better off getting Emory Jones experience.
The answer to whether Trask can win a championship has proven to be “no”, at least for the 2019 version of Trask. But that’s not who we’re going to get next year.
Look no further than every Gators fan’s favorite QB to see what an offseason with Mullen after starting a year can do.
Feleipe Franks’ 2018 and 2019 seasons compared to Kyle Trask’s 2019 season based on YAR. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
I wrote after Franks was injured that he and Trask are different QBs with different strengths and weaknesses. Nowhere is that more apparent than when you look at my Yards above Replacement (YAR) stat that takes into account both a QBs running and passing ability.
By that measure, Kyle Trask’s 2019 season is almost an exact replica of Feleipe Franks’ 2018 season. Undoubtedly they accomplished that value in vastly different ways as Franks is much more of a runner. But those fans frustrated with Trask taking sacks that kill drives were equally frustrated last year when Franks was throwing into double coverage or getting flushed from the pocket too soon.
2018 Franks was not a perfect QB and neither is this year’s edition of Trask. But Franks was a way better QB in 2019, averaging 9.7 yards per attempt.
And that isn’t something he did against inferior competition. Franks averaged 9.4 yards per attempt against Miami (ranked 18th in yards per play allowed vs. FBS) and 10.2 against Kentucky (ranked 59th).
Were Trask to show similar improvement in his passing from 2018 to 2019, we would expect him to average 10.5 yards per attempt.
Admittedly, these things aren’t linear. But there is another QB in the SEC who had a YAR just slightly worse than Feleipe Franks (0.18) in 2018. That QB only averaged 7.6 yards per attempt that season and drove his fan base crazy by looking like he was ready to put it together only to make a mistake that killed a drive.
That player is Joe Burrow.
Yards above Replacement (YAR) for Joe Burrow in 2018 and Kyle Trask in 2019. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
If we look at Trask’s 2019 versus Burrow’s 2018, we see two things. First, both of them had a considerable dip in the middle of their season. Burrow’s corresponded with his stretch against Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State and Alabama. Trask’s corresponds to Auburn, LSU, South Carolina and Georgia.
But Trask’s career started out better than Burrow and then Burrow improved considerably during the last four games of the season. Trask appears to be on the upswing as well, though the games against Florida State and the bowl game will tell us a lot.
I’m not saying that Trask will be Burrow. But I saw Burrow coming two years ago precisely because he showed elite accuracy at the high school level. That kind of accuracy typically translates to the college game, and here’s what I wrote about why in the article about Burrow.
“If you constantly see a QB throwing to wide open receivers, it can’t always be because of broken coverages. Defenses have to make choices about what they want to give up. It is the QBs job to exploit those weaknesses.”
Burrow completed 72.3 percent of his passes his senior year of high school. Trask – admittedly in limited duty – completed 73.4 percent of his. More importantly, Burrow completed 74.4 percent of his throws at Ohio State as a back-up before transferring. Yes, he struggled last season at LSU (57.8%), but he completed 67 percent in LSU’s last four games in 2018.
Trask has completed 66.8 percent of his throws this season. The accuracy is translating, and the game against Missouri shows us why.
On this play Missouri has a single-high safety with responsibility to the deep middle of the field. That means from the pre-snap look, Trask knows Hammond is going to be in one-on-one coverage on the outside. The defensive back is also giving Hammond plenty of space, meaning he won’t be able to jam him off of his route.
Hammond actually made this catch more difficult than it should have been. Trask delivered the ball to his outside shoulder but he turned inside, forcing the adjustment. But the fact remains that Trask threw to the right place and a big play was the result.
These are back-to-back plays. On both plays Trask recognizes that the deep safety is shaded over towards the receivers at the top of the screen. Note how he looks to his left at first but then comes back to his right. He knew he was going to Pitts at the start of the play but wasn’t able to step into the throw to deliver it accurately.
On the second play, Pitts is in the slot on a linebacker (good job Dan Mullen). Again the safety is unable to get over to the sideline but this time Trask is able to step into the throw.
These are just two examples, but Trask is showing that he throws to the right receiver and makes the right read. Does he have things to improve on this offseason? Absolutely.
I’ve seen a lot of people questioning why Dan Mullen won’t play Emory Jones. The implication is that Jones hasn’t progressed enough in the passing game to allow him to take the reins.
But perhaps Trask being the backup this season isn’t because Jones hasn’t come along but because he won the job. Perhaps it’s because Trask is a really good QB with the potential to improve.
And perhaps it would behoove Gator Nation to be a little bit more patient with a QB who has a profile very similar to the guy who’s going to win the friggin’ Heisman Trophy.
Gators Defense
Much has been made of Florida’s struggles to run the ball on offense. But in the last three games, the Gators defense has made it really difficult for the opponent to do so as well.
Missouri was held to 52 yards on 29 carries. That comes on the heels of holding Vanderbilt to 51 yards on 40 attempts and Georgia to 119 yards on 37 carries. All of this has occurred with Jabari Zuniga basically a non-factor.
Jonathan Greenard has been a force up-front. But there are other players who are starting to step forward against the run as well. The one who’s been most noticeable to me is defensive end Zachary Carter.
Though he was flagged for a facemask on this play, it demonstrates what I’m talking about. Carter (#17) didn’t have a real exciting job against Missouri. He was responsible for setting the edge both in the run and pass games. In the pass game, it was because the Gators didn’t want to let Kelly Bryant get outside to run. In the run game, it was because they want to funnel things back inside to David Reese.
So not only does Carter take on the block from the left tackle, but he also throws him aside to the inside, forcing the back to cut back to the inside. Carter ends up making the tackle along with his buddies, but even if he didn’t, he’s doing his job. This isn’t an isolated incident.
The other thing that Carter is allowing is for Greenard to flourish.
Greenard is typically the Buck, meaning that he isn’t one of the three down-linemen in Grantham’s 3-4 scheme. When Jabari Zuniga first went down, Greenard played a lot of defensive end because the Gators didn’t have anyone else to step up.
But now they have Carter stepping into that role.
It isn’t so much what Carter does on this run. It’s that he allows Greenard to go one-on-one against Missouri’s right tackle. That was clearly a mismatch for the Gators and Greenard drives Missouri running back Larry Rountree for a loss of five yards.
Luke Ancrum was on the field at the defensive end position a lot in the first quarter. Carter came in and earned a lot more playing time as the game wore on. He even slipped inside to tackle on passing downs and was able to hold up when Missouri decided to call QB draws.
That kind of versatility is going to be needed with Greenard, Zuniga and Adam Schuler gone next year.
Takeaway
Florida is exactly where most rational people thought they’d be this season after improving to 9-2 with the win at Missouri.
That’s with a catastrophic injury to its starting QB, its star defensive end missing most of the season and having to face both Auburn and LSU in cross-division match-ups.
In reality, the Gators have outperformed its metrics, ranking 20th in yards per play differential. But they’ve made the plays when they’ve had to and now stand with a week off to prepare for a bout with Florida State to confirm they are State Champions.
That isn’t exactly the championship Gators fans were hoping for coming into the game against Georgia, but I do think it’s something most fans – if they’re being honest with themselves – would have been thrilled about at the start of the year, or even at halftime of the game against Miami.
There is still work to do. Mullen is going to have to beat Georgia. The defense will have to get off the field when playing against elite opponents. Trask has to take the step forward that his statistics indicate might be on the horizon.
But I remember leaving the Swamp last season after the performance against Missouri completely deflated. At that point in time, the Gators were 6-3 and appeared to be just as desperate at the QB position as they were at any time under Jim McElwain.
There were plenty of people questioning Mullen’s decision to stick with Feleipe Franks. Both Franks and Mullen shut those people up by winning the Peach Bowl.
It’s quite possible we’ll be able to say the same thing about Mullen and Trask about the Orange or Sugar Bowls in a few weeks.
oxking
Great article Will. It does appear that Mullen is a tad discombobulated when it comes to playing Emory Jones. He wants him to run but not to pass, though he denies that in the press conferences. Obviously, this is going to have to be dealt with in the off season.
However, as far a passing is concerned, you have to be smoking dope to think that Trask is not Jones’ superior at this point. I remember watching the incoming QBs films and said then that Trask was the best passer in the bunch. Franks, on the other hand, couldn’t hit water from a boat.
CGator
Will, I think you are right on target. Forget stats, the eyeball test says Trask is more effective than Franks. He makes his reads, is cool in the pocket and is accurate. If we had just a mediocre running game, he would be even more effective, and not under such a focused pass rush. And he is still an inexperienced college QB!
My only comment on Jones is that I don’t think Mullen uses him correctly. I’m mystified why , given our inability to convert short yardage, that he doesn’t use Jones then. Against Vanderbilt, he subbed Jones out on 3rd and short! I haven’t seen every snap, but until the second half against Mizzou, I haven’t seen Jones used on 3rd and short, despite the fact he always seems to get positive yardage on the ground. In the first half, Mullen subbed Jones out on 3rd and 5, we didn’t get the first down. Against Mizzou in the second half, he stayed in and he got that first down, and I could only wonder what might have happened against Georgia if he had come in and gotten a few first downs. That game was marked by our inability to convert short yardage, yet we seemed to have the answer the sitting on the bench.
Will Miles
This is the one area where I think questioning the QB rotation makes sense. If you could use Jones to supplement Trask rather than replace him, I think there’s a good argument to be had there. But without being in the QB room, we’re all just guessing about what the alternative to what we see out there would be.
Cameron
Great article. One thing I was thinking about that I talked with a lot of people before the season is that we would have a better team this year but our record may not be better. I think you can look at our team this year and while the record at this point isn’t that much different (8-3 vs. 9-2), you can say that we’re a better team. I look to the fact that we don’t seem to have some of the mental issues we did last year, and we’ve beaten all the teams we’re supposed to beat. Kentucky was a struggle (mostly because Franks was turning it over) and South carolina wasn’t easy (game was played in a monsoon and we got south carolina right after their huge win against Uga) but for the most part we’ve handled everyone we were supposed to handle and they haven’t been close.
JEFF LOPEZ
Will as you have mentioned several times, Mullen needs to recruit at a much higher level if he is going to be able to beat the elite teams like Georgia, LSU and Alabama. Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear that this is going to happen anytime in the near future since the current staff us unable to even land the 5 Stars from their own backyard (Bowman), so we Florida fans are going to have to get used to good but not great football in Gainesville!
oxking
Right on. He’s going to have to get his recruiting act together if things are really going to improve from what they are right now. It was obvious in the Georgia game, their 5 star linemen stifled our 3 star defensive stars giving a good QB too much time to throw. That’s what been us.
Richg
Yes Georgia has like 16 5 star players vs 0 for us. We are far behind and could be Mullens achilles heel.
Mark
Everybody demands championships right now. It’s not realistic. Dabo didn’t sign 5 star kids or even 4 star kids to begin his Clemson career. Florida is going to have to re-earn it’s reputation as a premier program. What all the “I want it all right now” folks need to understand that firing coaches every two years will make you Tennessee and not Alabama.
Axios
Anyone complaining about Mullen’s performance as a coach is blind to the severe problems we have on the OL, with injuries to key players, and overall scholarship depth. We are a team playing with one hand tied behind its back. The results have been quite good given what we have. That said, Mullen HAS to step it up in recruiting if we are going to be competitive on a championship level.
Randy
Being a fellow engineer, I love the data you bring to the discussion. QB discussion is so painful on social media. Maybe 1% of fans know what they are looking at. Combine that with some people’s likes or dislikes of certain players and it’s a real mess. It’s almost like talking politics, and that’s brutal.
Thanks again for what you bring to the discussion.
Matt
I think the YAR metric certainly measures a QB’s abilities, but it also measures the abilities of the team around him and the scheme in general. If a team has an offense line effect at rush blocking, the QB will probably get more yards per rush. If a team has excellent receivers and good pass blocking, the yards per pass will improve.
Some of the increase in Burrow’s YAR is no doubt because Burrow improved. But some of it may be receivers and offensive line improving as well. Some of it is probably the team employing a more effective offensive scheme too.
No doubt Trask will likely improve next year. One would also expect the o line to improve. Wide receivers probably regress as we lose a lot of seniors. Emory Jones will also presumably improve. I don’t know whether Trask’s YAR would be better next year than Jones’ YAR. But I’m glad we have both guys on the team, and I’m confident we have coaches who will figure it out.
Mark
Agree with this comment, but I think 90% of Burrow’s YAR improvement can be attributed to the acquisition of Joe Brady. Burrow is a good quarterback, but he looks like a potential for the best in the country because of the coaching staff’s new passing game.
geof
Recruiting. Oh yea, that’s Mullen’s weakness. He’s a great on-field coach, great developer of men and has an attractive personality. But he can’t recruit.
I spent my business career as International VP of Sales for two enormously successful telecom companies, each with groundbreaking technology that fundamentally changed the communications landscape. Both were start-ups, funded by trusting VC’s which are rewarded with payoffs over 100X original investments. Both companies were acquired by much larger organizations. In the early years of both companies, very few prospects were willing to take “bet your career” risk with new technology and a company with an unproven track record. In the early years, we could not attract the best engineers or sales people or customers. We had to build it, brick by brick. We trained and developed, we hired people with desire to do what we did and be who we were.
My point is, Coach Mullen is engaged in the same process. Joining the program 2 years ago was a very risky proposition as compared with our main rivals. The last couple years with Myers and then the Muschamp/McElwain era did not lead the best prospects to conclude UF was a no brainer. Lots of other places had a higher reward profile for the instant gratification crowd. I watch Mullen on the sidelines compared with Smart, Swinney, Saban, Harbaugh, Oggeron and others and I like how he conducts himself. I like how he trusts his organization, I like his ethics and his goals.
Right now, when a kid gets an offer from Clemson or Alabama or OSU, it’s almost automatic they’re the frontrunner without regard to how good a salesman/recruiter Dan Mullen and staff are. Easy to understand, human nature. On the other hand, Mullen is doing more with less than anybody else. The current recruiting class is shaping up to be very good, probably not great measured by stars. I believe that people are beginning to realize that it’s fun to play football at Florida, again. You can absolutely feel the commitment players feel to the program. The Gators were competitive or dominant in every game this season. It’s been a long time since that was true. Trask is himself a metaphor for the program. Never a starter, completely committed and loyal, studied and was ready for his chance. What an amazing story he is. It’s my opinion that Mullen era is on a very solid base and that the goals are within reach.
When a program is dysfunctional, you need either super salesmen or lies and money to turn it around (Ole Miss)and sign highly rated recruits. Mullen is not that kind of guy and he won’t attract the kind of people who fall for that process. He’ll get it done. In ways we can be proud of and find very satisfying. I’ve seen it before. I’ve lived it before.
KerwinsGimpyLeg
That was damn inspiring. Thank you.
JEFF LOPEZ
https://www.readandreaction.com/2017/12/20/the-real-meaning-behind-stars-matter/
Tiffany
One problem this year is the Gators are playing with a roster numbering in the mid-60s. The other top 10 programs are mid-70s. The Gators lack depth. The starters are solid, but lose one and the backup is a big step back (exception is Trask). Everyone talks about the Trask story, but Lamical Perine only had 2 Power 5 offers (excluding a late Alabama offer). We are winning with guys who weren’t even on other teams’ radars.
With regards to recruiting, CDM has already improved over Mac. When he gets compared to Kirby Smart or Jimbo Fisher as to why he’s not recruiting better, consider this…both of those coaches were already coaching at elite power 5 programs. They had formed relationships with recruits when those recruits were in middle school. When they transitioned to head coach, they simply took a lot of those guys with them, won, and continued snagging big recruits. CDM was at a power 5 school, but he wasn’t recruiting 5*, and probably very few 4*. Mac also didn’t go after big recruits, so there aren’t any 5* guys who have had an offer from UF for 4 years. So the Gators are 4-5 years behind in terms of relationships. That’s how long it will take to see a jump in the roster. CDM has earned that much time, and I suspect we will start seeing better recruits in the 2021 cycle (I believe it already looks better). Also, let’s say he never improves. I’ll take 10 fun wins a year vs that unwatchable garbage we had under Musty and Mac.