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Here’s how dominant Florida was in its 40-17 win over Florida State.
The Gators had five explosive (20+ yard) plays for 156 yards. If you take those five plays away, the Gators still outgained the Seminoles by 61 yards and averaged more yards per play.
Florida had eight sacks and 12 tackles for loss. Meanwhile, Florida didn’t give up any sacks even though the team attempted 48 pass attempts. That freed up Kyle Trask and Emory Jones to torch the FSU secondary for 390 yards.
That’s the seventh time this season that the offense has surpassed 300-yards passing, and is in stark contrast to the way the offense has operated in the 10 years since Florida last beat FSU in the Swamp.
In my preview of last season’s Florida/FSU game, I catalogued Florida’s struggles in the passing game since that 2009 win. In the four years prior to Dan Mullen’s arrival, Florida totaled 636 yards passing on 48 percent completions with 4 TD and 5 INT.
The past two seasons, the Gators have now totaled 644 yards passing on 68 percent completions with 7 TD and 0 INT against the ‘Noles.
Yes, the Willie Taggart era does have something to do with how lopsided those stats are. But so does the Dan Mullen era.
Nowhere is that more apparent than the offense, particularly the quarterback.
Kyle Trask
Anytime you score 40 points, you should walk away from the game happy. But there were two plays in particular on rewatch that made me particularly happy.
This is a win for the FSU defense. It gets immediate pressure on Trask and its coverage is good enough that Trask has to throw the ball away. But notice how Trask senses the pressure the minute his leg hits on his drop.
That kind of awareness of the pass rush wasn’t there earlier in the season, which was led to all of his fumble problems.
Case in point, this play from the Auburn game. This was one of three fumbles Trask lost on the day, and on this one in particular he is unaware that pressure is coming from his back-side. He didn’t have the same place to evacuate to here as he did in the example against FSU above, but I’m fully convinced that he would have just taken the sack instead of compounding things by fumbling.
This was particularly important in the FSU game not just because he threw the ball away on second down, but what he did on third down.
Watch as Trask manipulates the pocket, not only avoiding the rush but finding a lane to make a perfect throw to Van Jefferson. Florida State isn’t a very good team. But this isn’t a play that Trask would have made against Kentucky or Tennessee.
That bodes well for next season, but Trask’s 2019 season deserves some plaudits as well.
Trask finishes the regular season with a passer rating of 159.2 and a 24:6 TD:INT ratio. He was also incredibly consistent. Against non-FCS foes, his lowest passer rating of the season was 146.0 (Auburn, LSU) and his highest was 168.6 (Tennessee).
He completed 67.6 percent of his passes and averaged 8.4 yards per attempt. His yards above replacement (YAR) finishes at 0.28, higher than Feleipe Franks last season (0.19). I don’t have all the stats tabulated from Saturday’s games, but I believe this will put him third in the SEC behind some guys named Tagovailoa and Burrow.
I should state that again. Kyle Trask was the third best QB in the SEC, behind last year’s Heisman runner up and this year’s likely winner.
Pretty good considering I think fans (including myself) were all pretty shocked when he came in after Franks’ injury against Kentucky.
Uncertainty at quarterback kills seasons (just ask FSU and Miami). Trask brought certainty to the position immediately after Franks’ injury and is a big reason that Florida has won 10 games.
Defense
The other place I want to spend a little bit of time is the Gators defense.
The defense bookended the season with 18 sacks, eight against the ‘Noles. But terrorizing quarterbacks has been a trend for the team all season.
Yards above Replacement (YAR) allowed by the Gators defense in 2019 against FBS opponents. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
The above chart shows the yards above replacement (YAR) allowed by the Gators defense to opposing QBs this season, excluding the FCS opponents. What you see is that every single team that Florida played had a negative YAR save for two opponents: Georgia and LSU.
The LSU data point makes complete sense, as nobody has stopped Joe Burrow and Company all season long. The Georgia data point is the one that is going to bother Florida fans all offseason, as Jake Fromm has struggled much more this season than he did against the Gators.
Still, to go an entire season and hold eight opponents (10 if you count the FCS opponents) to below average QB play is quite an accomplishment.
Florida was a top-10 scoring defense coming into this game (17.3 points per game vs. FBS opponents) and did nothing to harm that ranking against the Seminoles.
One thing that has gone relatively unnoticed in the (very deserved) praise heaped on Jonathan Greenard and the desire (again, justified) to have Jabari Zuniga back in the line-up is the emergence of Zachary Carter.
Carter started out the season more or less just being used to give Zuniga and Greenard a blow, only accumulating a half-sack through the first five games of the season. Carter had this sack and two tackles for loss against Florida State, but it’s where he’s lined-up that intrigues me.
On this play, Carter (#17) is playing nose tackle. But it’s a pass rushing situation because of the down and distance (third-and-9). Carter and Greenard (#58) run a stunt and meet at Blackman, with Carter getting the sack.
The other player who deserves some credit is safety Donovan Stiner.
Stiner has been a popular target for the ire of Gators fans, as he rarely makes the same kind of spectacular athletic play that you might see from his teammates. And he does struggle a lot when put into one-on-one situations, whether it’s coming up to tackle a running back in space or getting isolated on a wide receiver.
But here’s the thing about Stiner: he’s almost always in the right position.
The following two plays are a prime example.
Fans will likely blame C.J. Henderson (#1) for this play. After all, how could he allow himself to get beat like this by Tamorrion Terry?
But perhaps a better question to ask is, why is Florida in a cover-zero defense on first down with 9:38 left in the first quarter? The answer is, they aren’t.
Instead, what you see is both safeties bite on the play-fake to Akers. I can’t be sure, but I’m pretty sure Shawn Davis (#31) has deep responsibilities because the safeties are lined-up with Jeawon Taylor (#29) close to the line of scrimmage pre-snap.
Regardless, the result is a huge play for Florida State because Terry wins the one-on-one battle. But that’s the thing about one-on-one coverage. Sometimes the receiver wins. Often, the primary job of the safety is to make sure it’s a 12-yard gain rather than a 50-yard gain.
Florida State ran almost the exact same play later in the game.
Stiner (#13) and Taylor (#29) are lined up with Taylor again closer to the line of scrimmage. Note how Stiner immediately gets deep after the snap. Henderson (#1) plays Terry much better on this play, but had he been beat, Stiner would have been there.
Because of what Florida State likes to do, it was much more important for the safeties to be in the right place than to make the spectacular play. Sometimes that isn’t the case, as a turnover or big hit was needed against LSU or Georgia because those teams were executing at such a high level.
But the Seminoles live off of big plays and struggle to put together sustained drives so being in the right position is paramount. Terry got behind the Florida defense twice in the first quarter, and had FSU hit either of those big plays the game might have played out quite differently.
Florida’s safeties started getting deeper at the snap almost immediately after FSU missed the second shot to Terry and he never threatened them deep again.
The Seniors
“It’s sometimes disappointing when everybody doesn’t want to come together and just play for each other. That’s sad to see. We’ve still got a lot to play for. Me personally and our defense, we want to play for those guys. We can’t have appearances like we just had today. That’s unacceptable.” – David Reese
Those words belonged to Gators linebacker David Reese after Florida got blown off the field by Missouri the week following Jim McElwain’s dismissal in 2017. Reese was a true Sophomore at the time, and going back to find those words are striking just two years later.
After all, this is a team who has multiple team captains at wide receiver who alternate starting responsibilities. It is a team who has welcomed graduate transfers Van Jefferson, Adam Shuler and Jonathan Greenard even though they have taken someone else’s job. It is a team that looked completely lost in 2017 against Georgia and then completely broken a week later against Missouri.
But Reese, Tyrie Cleveland, Lamical Perine, Jabari Zuniga, Nick Buchanan, Josh Hammond, Freddie Swain, Luke Ancrum, Jeawon Taylor, Tommy Townsend and the other seniors bought into Dan Mullen’s pitch. They absorbed the barbs from fans who don’t forgive a blown coverage, let alone a 4-7 season.
And they established the foundation for a culture that has produced 20 wins the last two seasons thus far.
After the game, Mullen had this to say when asked about what it meant for the seniors in this class to stick around during the transition from Jim McElwain.
“It’s really special to me. When you come in and you say ‘we didn’t recruit you but this is how we’re going to run the program. This is what we believe in and this is how our program’s going to be run in the future’ and those guys believed and bought in and I thanked all of them, every single one of them I thanked them, I said “thanks for believing in me.” – Dan Mullen
Oftentimes, we as fans talk about games that left scars on us. Tommy Frazier running free in the Fiesta Bowl. The Choke at the Doak. The 2001 Tennessee game moved because of 9/11. The 2009 SEC Championship against Alabama. The Jordan Reed fumble at the end of the 2012 Georgia game.
But it wasn’t lost on me that Freddie Swain spent the second half of his final game in the Swamp on the sidelines. These guys have real battle scars from playing a game that takes a significant toll on their future health.
Certainly they sacrifice that because of the allure of future NFL riches. They also sacrifice it for the ego hit that comes with being a football player on a campus like the University of Florida. And they sacrifice it for a scholarship that might not be possible otherwise.
But seeing the players post all week on Twitter about this being their last game in the Swamp and what this time has meant to them, they do it because just like us, they love their school.
So thank you to all the seniors. We appreciate your sacrifice, and we appreciate what you’ve meant to the program that we love too.
‘Bama and the Orange Bowl
But the Gators also caught a break with Auburn taking down Alabama in the Iron Bowl. Had ‘Bama won that game, it would likely have pushed Florida to the Cotton Bowl against a Group of 5 team. Or if Ohio State gets upset by Wisconsin, potentially out of a New Year’s 6 bowl game.
Before the Alabama loss, the Orange Bowl was really only possible if both LSU and Georgia made the playoff, which required Georgia to beat LSU in the SEC Championship and then the committee to take them both.
Instead, now Georgia can lose and go to the Sugar Bowl (highest ranked SEC team not in playoff) and that leaves Florida in a battle with the Crimson Tide for a spot in the Orange Bowl.
I get that Alabama has a reputation as a juggernaut, and I’m not sure that I’d take Florida to beat Alabama on a neutral field, even with Mac Jones at QB instead of Tua Tagovailoa. But that’s not the way this is supposed to work.
Excluding FCS games, Alabama has won 10 games against opponents with a combined 44-64 (.407) record while losing to two teams with a combined 21-3 record. One of those losses came at home, albeit to a really good LSU team.
Meanwhile, Florida has won 9 games against non-FCS opponents with a combined 48-48 (.500) record and has lost two games to teams with a combined 23-1 record, both away from the Swamp.
The two have four common opponents: South Carolina, Tennessee, LSU and Auburn. Florida went 3-1 while Alabama went 2-2. Florida outscored those four opponents by 39 points versus 38 for Alabama.
The only place you would ding Florida’s resume is the two FCS opponents. But are you really telling me that the Orange Bowl should be decided by the fact that Alabama beat New Mexico State (ESPN FPI = 125) rather than Towson or UT-Martin?
I’d even be sympathetic to the argument that Alabama had to play Auburn with its backup QB and it was the turnovers by Jones that were the difference. Except, Florida had to do the exact same thing, and won the game despite four turnovers, three by Trask.
No, Florida won the game against Auburn because of its defense. When Auburn got into short-yardage situations, the Gators were up to the task. Alabama….not so much.
Saban can complain about the officials giving Auburn an extra second at the end of the first half. He can complain about being outschemed by Malzahn when Gus put his punter and QB on the field at the same time and induced a 12-men-on-the-field penalty.
But what it really came down to is one of Saban’s prized recruits (Xavier McKinney, 4-star, 58th nationally according to 247Sports composite) was in position between Auburn running back Shaun Shivers and the end zone.
Shivers – and Auburn – won.
They didn’t in Gainesville, and that should matter more than what the Alabama program accomplished in 2012 or 2015.
Takeaway
Here’s the reality.
By beating Florida State, the Gators just staked their claim to state supremacy in a way that has to resonate with recruits. The scoreboard said 40-17, but only die-hards watched the second half after the Gators took a 30-7 lead into halftime.
I mean, at the end Mullen called a fake punt because he was just toying with a rival who had won seven of the last nine meetings.
And even then, FSU couldn’t find a way to score.
Mullen has to turn this into momentum on the recruiting trail in 2021, and even 2020 if he can. And after a 10-2 season to follow-up his 10-3 debut, the only way to improve next year is to scale the mountain and beat Georgia.
But if you had told Florida fans after that Missouri game in 2017 that they would be celebrating their second straight blowout of Florida State in 2019 and would have seen their team go 20-5 over the past two seasons, they would have signed up for that immediately.
With this win, Mullen did hit that 20-5 mark, along with a perfect record in the Swamp in 2019. Those five losses have come against teams with a combined record of 52-12, and only one (Missouri, 2018) had less than 10 wins.
I’ve often tried to gauge a coach’s ability to develop his talent by comparing where he finishes in the polls versus how much talent his team has. With a bowl win, Florida will finish in the top-8 for the second straight year, despite ranking 12th and 15th in total roster talent the last two seasons.
That only happens if you beat all of the teams you’re supposed to beat and sprinkle in an upset or two. Mullen got his upset against Auburn. And since Trask took over, he’s been beating the teams he’s supposed to beat the way he’s supposed to beat them.
Florida State was just the latest victim.
The ‘Noles came to Gainesville hoping to catch the Gators napping and instead figured out what Tennessee, Auburn and Vanderbilt have found out this year as well.
When you visit the Swamp under Dan Mullen, only Gators get out alive.