Can Jimbo Fisher really develop Kellen Mond into the best QB in the SEC?

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If you’re busy, I’ll get right to the point: It is highly unlikely that Kellen Mond will be the best QB in the SEC in 2020.

The reason I have to write that sentence is because we’re getting into pundit season, and SEC Network analyst Jordan Rodgers decided to posit that Mond “could be the best QB in the SEC.”

SEC Network analyst Jordan Rodgers believes Kellen Mond could be the ‘best QB in the SEC.’https://t.co/HVCy9BmQLb pic.twitter.com/8YbOxqURzE

— 247Sports (@247Sports) April 12, 2020

Basically Rodgers’ whole argument is that Texas A&M is developing more weapons at tight end, specifically 2019  4-star recruits Jalen Wydermyer (359th nationally) and Baylor Cupp (53rd nationally). Wydermyer had 32 receptions in 2019 as a true freshman while Cupp didn’t play.

They certainly have a lot of talent. But this is a lot like someone making the argument that Florida’s offense will be way better because Keon Zipperer and Jacob Copeland are talented. They certainly are, but if Florida were relying on those two extensively, I’d be really worried.

Kyle Trask has been under a lot of scrutiny by Gators fans this offseason. There’s a real desire to see what Emory Jones can do, so much so that it was somewhat controversial when I wrote last week that Trask should be considered the definitive starter.

But if Kellen Mond were Florida’s QB, I’d be clamoring for Emory Jones too.

Accuracy

For a while now, I’ve been advancing the argument that high school completion percentage is a statistic that translates to college.

It’s why I was so bullish on Joe Burrow when he was transferring from Ohio State. It’s one reason why I’m luke-warm on Emory Jones. And it’s why I don’t think Kyle Trask’s 67 percent completion rate in 2019 was a mirage.

So how did Mond perform in high school? Well, the only statistics available come from his senior year in high school, but in 178 attempts he completed 55.6 percent of his throws. Compare that to Trask, who – in admittedly limited time – completed 73.3 percent of his throws in high school.

Now, I get why you would scoff at Trask’s numbers a little bit. After all, much of his time was in mop-up duty for starter D’eriq King. But clearly that accuracy translated to Florida this past season even with the limited sample size.

So has it translated for Mond as well?

Yes, it has. As a true freshman in 2017, he completed 51.5 percent of his throws. That improved to 57.3 percent in 2018 and 61.6 percent in 2019. So Mond does appear to be getting better, with substantial jumps in accuracy each year.

But that increase in completion percentage between 2018 and 2019 comes with a caveat. Mond went from averaging 7.5 to 6.9 yards per completion from 2018 to 2019, indicating that Jimbo Fisher was willing to sacrifice going downfield with the ball in order to maximize accuracy.

Both Trask and Mond averaged very similar yards per completion totals (11.3 to 11.2), but because Trask was so much more accurate than Mond, he had a significantly higher yards per attempt total (8.3 to 6.9).

Reading Defenses

It would be one thing if Mond was just throwing incompletions because his guys weren’t getting open. But I don’t think that’s usually why college QBs struggle with accuracy.

Instead, I think the data suggests that college QBs struggle with accuracy because they throw into traffic due to misreading defenses. You can see this if you watch some of the film on Mond.

Now, as a caveat, I haven’t watched a ton of Texas A&M film. It is possible that I’m cherry picking here to make my point. However, these are the kinds of things you see when a QB struggles with knowing where to go with the football, particularly when he is under pressure.

Right before the snap, you can see LSU safety Grant Delpit (#7) creeping towards the center of the field. He is baiting Mond and it works. Mond makes the throw to the right because he believes that Delpit was responsible for deep coverage for his receivers to his left. That clearly isn’t true, and Delpit is able to get over to make the interception on a poorly thrown ball.

This throw was significantly impacted by the pressure. And down 31-0, it’s understandable that Mond would be trying to make something happen. But he threw to the wrong guy because he didn’t recognize the change in Delpit’s positioning.

I actually get why fans and analysts would get excited about Mond. When he has a clean pocket, he can do some really good things.

On this play, Mond makes a beautiful read, banking on the deep safety being hesitant to come up and make a play. And his throw right on the numbers allows that receiver to run right by the safety.

But you can absolutely affect his decision making if you’re able to get pressure on him or put him in a tough situation.

Kellen Mond and Kyle Trask with and without pressure in 2019. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

The above table shows Mond (and Trask for comparison) when they are and are not under pressure. The first thing to note is that Trask is the same guy whether he’s under pressure or not. His completion percentage and inaccuracy percentage are virtually identical. If you want to point towards something that makes me think he has room to grow, this is the one.

But Mond is a completely different QB under pressure. His completion percentage drops 30 (!) percent. His yards per attempt go down from 7.5 to 5.5. He’s inaccurate nearly 60 percent of the time.

The other place this shows up is on third down.

This is relatively early in A&M’s game against Ole Miss on a third-and-7. Mond throws an interception here because he tries to fit the ball in over the middle to his tight end, the aforementioned Jalen Wydermyer (#85).

But the right read is to hit wide receiver Quartney Davis (#1) on the little curl route. He has one-on-one coverage about a yard short of the sticks. Sometimes you just have to trust your receiver to get the yard instead of forcing the ball into tight spaces.

Kellen Mond and Kyle Trask on 2nd and 3rd-and-long in 2019. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

Again, this shows up in the statistics. Mond was quite effective in second-and-long situations, averaging 8.4 yards per attempt and completing 74 percent of his passes. But on third-and-long, that dropped to 6.4 yards per attempt and a completion percentage of 37.5.

Contrast that with Trask, who was Mond’s equivalent on second-and-long and was even better on third-and-long.

The argument most would make is that Trask faced lesser competition because Texas A&M’s schedule was so brutal. In a way that’s true, as the Aggies did face Clemson, Auburn, Alabama, LSU and Georgia. Those are all really good teams.

But the Aggies also faced some really bad defenses, including Power-5 opponents Arkansas, Mississippi, Mississippi State and Oklahoma State.

If we separate Mond’s performances against Power-5 teams, what we find is that he completed 59.5 percent of his passes for a 6.3 yards per attempt average against top-25 defenses and he completed 59.2 percent of his passes for 6.3 yards per attempt against all the others. Basically, he played relatively poorly unless the opponent was a cupcake.

And if we’re comparing him to Trask and common opponents, again the comparison is unfavorable.

Kellen Mond and Kyle Trask against common opponents in 2019. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

Trask and Mond had four common opponents: Auburn, South Carolina, Georgia and LSU. Trask put up better numbers across the board, besting Mond in completion percentage, yards, yards per attempt, TDs, INTs and passer rating.

No matter which way you slice it, Trask was the better QB in 2019.

Takeaway

I hope this doesn’t come off as too negative towards Mond. He’s a serviceable SEC QB, but for people to be hyping him as the next big thing in the SEC just isn’t supported by the data.

Mond will improve in 2020 and his numbers will look better because the quality of the teams he’ll be playing against will go down. But you could say the exact same thing about Trask, as Florida’s schedule is about as easy as an SEC schedule can be.

And lest you think I’m a homer, if you made me bet on Mond or Kentucky QB Terry Wilson or Tennessee QB Jarrett Guarantano to be the best QB in the SEC next season, right now I’d lean heavily towards Wilson or Guarantano before I’d take Mond.

After transferring to Kentucky in 2018, Wilson completed 67.2 percent of his passes and averaged 7.0 yards per attempt. And while Guarantano wasn’t all that accurate last season (59.1%), he did average 8.4 yards per throw.

Now both of those players have huge question marks coming into the season. Wilson suffered a serious knee injury and may not be the same player, especially early on. And Guarantano did most of his damage against the easier part of Tennessee’s schedule after being benched earlier in the year.

But that’s kind of my point. Wilson, Guarantano and Trask all grade out better than Mond, yet somehow there is the perception that he was just a step down from Burrow and Tagovailoa last season when that isn’t even remotely close to true.

Mond regressed under Jimbo Fisher from year one to year two. His track record – both in high school and college – suggests that he isn’t all that accurate. Without improving that significantly, he’s pretty much hit his ceiling.

Jordan Rodgers is paid to give opinions, and in this time of CoVID-19 is likely encouraged to give controversial ones. I suppose he accomplished what he wanted since I’m writing this article.

But Rodgers should also be well aware that completion percentage translates from high school to college. After all, Rodgers was a QB at Vanderbilt where his best completion percentage was 59.9 percent his senior season.

His completion percentage his senior year in high school? 60.8 percent.

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