What does Dan Mullen need to change to get better recruiting results?

Bill Sikes wrote last week about the players coming out of Palmetto High School this year and their importance to the Gators recruiting class. Put simply, Florida is going to finish outside the Top-10 nationally (and likely sixth in the SEC) unless it can get Marshall and teammate Leonard Taylor to come to Gainesville.

With the news that 5-star Palmetto High cornerback Jason Marshall is leaning heavily towards committing to the Miami Hurricanes, my Twitter timeline has been filled with people asking the same question:

“What does Dan Mullen need to change to get better recruiting results?”

To answer this question, we need to look at a few things. But we also need to be honest about what it takes to win big in college and how to prioritize those things.

I love watching Mullen coach, because he does things schematically that you rarely see at the college level. It wasn’t a surprise to hear rumors that the Cowboys might be interested because the NFL is probably where he eventually belongs.

But part of why he belongs there is that College Football coaches win for three reasons:

1. They have better players.
2. They develop the players they have better than their peers.
3. They outscheme their opponents consistently.

Mullen does #2 and #3 better than most. But boy, would I like to see what he could do if he could just marginally improve with #1. Others clearly would too, which is why they’re asking me the question of what needs to change in the first place.

I’ve tried to look at some of the variables key to recruiting, and in so doing hope to identify what issues might be causing the good-but-not-great recruiting, and whether changing any of those things will make a difference.

Issue #1: Facilities

This has been one of the things that gets brought up immediately when you suggest that recruiting isn’t up to par.

Florida has finally begun construction on the James W. “Bill” Heavener Football Training Center at the site of McKethan Stadium, and the expectation is that the pools and Clemson-like slides will bring recruits in droves.

But is that true?

In late 2019, 247Sports ranked facilities and had the Gators at 25th, so yes, there is certainly room for improvement. But Arkansas is 22nd and Kentucky is 13th. Neither of those teams is out-recruiting the Gators on facilities alone.

But perhaps even more striking, Georgia is ranked 11th, yet the Bulldogs still end up in the Top-3 every season. To just think that the new football facility is going to open the floodgates is probably short-sighted.

Instead of just focusing on facilities, I think it makes sense to focus on overall spending on recruiting (of which facilities are obviously a part).

Stadium published numbers from the ’17-18 fiscal year looking at spending on recruiting. Georgia came in first, spending a whopping $2.6 million in the ’17-18 fiscal year, more than double what the ninth ranked team (LSU, $1.2 million) spent. Florida came in 12th in spending at $1.15 million.

Reports are that the number for Georgia increased up to $3.7 million for ’18-19, which means that the arm race is only accelerating.

But does that spending correlate to recruiting success?

It sure does, at least at the high levels.

It doesn’t appear that there’s much of a difference at the spending levels of $500,000-1,000,000. But once you hit that million-dollar mark, there is a clear downward trend.

Does this mean you can’t compete without outspending Georgia? Of course not. And is building facilities part of recruiting spending? Absolutely.

But if you think better facilities are going to just magically make the Gators better in the recruiting game, I think we’re going to need to see more spending than just that.

Issue #2: Show it “on the field”

This was a common argument when I brought up recruiting very early on in Mullen’s tenure.

“Just wait until he starts winning on the field and the recruits are going to come.”

I was dubious of that approach, going so far as to call it a “myth” that showing success on the field improved recruiting. Again, my colleague Bill Sikes was on-point, writing the following in July of 2018:

In 2009, Mullen only won five games as he turned MSU around, which is completely understandable. His class ranking fell from 18^th to 30^th, which again is a reasonable outcome if you believe winning has to come first. But in his second season in 2010, he won big, posting 9 wins. That might not sound like much to Gator fans, but the effort met the following benchmarks for MSU:

• First 9+ win total in 11 years
• Second highest win total since 1980
• Second bowl appearance and win in a decade

The effort was truly historic at Mississippi State, yet Mullen’s class ranking plummeted even further in the third cycle (41^st nationally). If such a fall followed Mullen’s extraordinary on-field display in 2010 at MSU, why do we assume the recruiting troubles will immediately disappear if he follows suit at Florida?

Mullen is proving Bill right. The Gators have been fantastic in 2018 and 2019, going 21-5 and winning two major bowl games. They have also beaten Florida State twice and Miami to open last season.

That’s why losing someone like Marshall to Miami is significant. You beat them on the field and they are still beating you for recruits. That’s a problem.

And despite the recent on-field success for Mullen in Gainesville, recruiting is almost exactly the same. Again though, based on Mullen’s time at Mississippi State, I’m not sure why we should expect anything different.

Mullen had a couple of down-years recruiting in year two and three at Mississippi State (based on 247Sports average ranking), but basically he was the same recruiter for his entire tenure. That has been even more true at Florida for his first three classes, where they’ve all basically been the exact same from a talent perspective year after year (except 2021, thus far).

This isn’t bad recruiting in his time at Florida. But it’s not on-par with Ron Zook, Urban Meyer or Will Muschamp.

It is better than Jim McElwain, but the point remains that it isn’t showing substantial improvement, even with all the winning.

Issue #3: Staff

This is perhaps the most popular issue to debate on Twitter and message boards, and likely is a pretty easy change. But the question I have is whether it would do a lot of good or even be counterproductive?

The decision to allow Ja’Juan Seider to go to Penn State upon coming to Gainesville was one that wasn’t popular with Gator fans who follow recruiting when it happened. The fact that Florida has strugged under Greg Knox to bring in running back recruits – including a couple that have been right in the Gators back yard – has only intensified that heat.

The addition of David Turner at defensive line coach has certainly paid dividends, as the Gators have beefed up that position, including the commitment of the first 5-star recruit in Dan Mullen’s tenure, defensive tackle Gervon Dexter.

But the addition of tight ends coach Tim Brewster was expected to open the recruiting floodgates and that just hasn’t happened yet. Now, certainly Brewster’s ability to develop relationships has been severely hampered by COVID-19, but football coaches get paid a lot of money to deliver and that hasn’t been the result for the 2021 class yet.

The other thing that sticks out is the frayed relationships with a number of players with this particular staff.

Former safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson apparently took umbrage at some of the things the staff had to say about him prior to being drafted into the NFL.

It’s hard to graduate from a school when you know the shit they said about you to damn near not have a job at the next level

— C.J. Gardner-Johnson (@CGJXXIII) May 8, 2020

The tweet has since been deleted and if this were an isolated incident, I would write it off. After all, Gardner-Johnson was recruited by Jim McElwain and so didn’t develop the same kind of relationship with Mullen and staff as someone who had been personally recruited by him.

But it hasn’t been a one-time thing.

There’s no debating that defensive end Jachai Polite had a historically bad combine performance. Beyond not being physically prepared, he wasn’t prepared for the interviews either, complaining afterwards that all the teams wanted to talk to him about were his mistakes. He then followed that up with a poor pro day, removing himself quickly after injuring his hamstring.

The guy was clearly hurting his draft stock and for a guy with a Twitter handle like @retiremoms, the ability to take care of his mother too.

It was right after that pro day performance that Todd Grantham decided to go on-record that he had advised Polite to return to school.

“Yeah, that was my advice, only because there’s a lot of factors that go into being a first-round talent. When guys spend millions of dollars on you they’re gonna research you, test you, prod you. They want to know exactly what they’re getting because that’s a large sum of money to invest. So you really need to be prepared fully, both mentally and physically.”

That entire quote is true. It has even proven prescient in the case of Polite.

But was it necessary?

Wouldn’t it have been better to just say, “Any advice I give my players is between them and I. I love Jachai and I think whoever drafts him is going to get a fine player.”?

After Polite flamed out with the Jets, getting released before the season and being fined around $100,000 for team violations, Mullen said the following:

“I like Jachai, and obviously I’m disappointed. I’m sad for him. Everybody has dreams. You dream of making it to the NFL. Hopefully, a learning experience for him and a learning experience for other guys in the program.”

There’s absolutely nothing wrong with that statement. But then Mullen couldn’t resist adding, “he was late for us before, too.”

I have no doubt that it is true that Polite was late. But again, I ask the question. Was taking that shot at Polite really necessary? What is the purpose of kicking dirt on him at his lowest point?

That kind of stuff filters downhill.

When Kamar Wilcoxson decommitted from Florida and committed to Tennessee, assistant coach John Herron (Florida’s Assistant Director of Player Personnel), tweeted the following:

Cmon Now Coach 💯 The Man Made A Decision That Was Best For Him💪🏾 There Shouldn’t Be Any Shade Thrown😕 Thats Still My Bro❤️ Congrats @KamarWilcoxson4 🍊 https://t.co/1zeSHtm495

— T H E. C H I E F🍫 (@ChiefBorders) April 27, 2020

Ironically, Wilcoxson has actually re-committed to the Gators. But I included the retweet of a Florida commit – linebacker Chief Borders – admonishing Herron for going after Wilcoxson on purpose. Players see that type of pettiness and some aren’t going to like it.

And the fact that these types of things keep happening is worrisome to me. That’s because one incident, you write off. A second, maybe a misunderstanding. But at some point, we have to ask whether this is just the culture that is being built.

Issue #4: Sales

I’d think we did a poor job recruiting if guys were coming in and then immediately walking out the door because it was something different than what they thought it would be and we lied to them during recruiting, or we sold them on a dream that wasn’t true.

That quote is from Mullen after Justin Fields transferred to Ohio State from Georgia. But it could’ve just as easily been anyone paying attention to the Florida program the past few years.

Talk to any Mullen defender and they’ll tell you that he is an excellent evaluator. But part of that evaluation has to be whether you can get the players onto campus. Mullen has really struggled in that area.

From disciplinary problems to playing time issues, far too many Gators are leaving campus before they ever become significant contributors. In fact, many of them are leaving before they ever even set foot on the field for a fall practice.

In 2018, it was Justin Watkins (4th highest rated recruit) dismissed for a domestic violence arrest. In 2019, it was Chris Steel (highest rated recruit), a California commit who decided to return home. And in 2020, it was Issiah Walker, Jr. (6th highest rated recruit) choosing to transfer to Miami.

It’s not that these guys transferred or were dismissed. It’s that they aren’t even really in the program before they’re leaving.

Say what you will about Kirby Smart and Justin Fields, but Fields at least saw the field. Perhaps a fake field goal wasn’t the best use of his talents, but there was at least an opportunity to see what Fields could do.

In my line of work, I interface with sales staff regularly.

Some are just naturals at their jobs. It’s comes easy for them, and if you talk to their customers, all they can do is rave about the job their representative is doing.

It just doesn’t come as naturally to some others. Sometimes they set up meetings and aren’t completely prepared or don’t know when to end a meeting and reschedule. It’s not that they aren’t trying. It’s just that it isn’t natural.

In good times, I suspect that both of these types of sales staff make a similar living. But with the COVID-19 shutdown, the priorities of our customers have changed.

I’ve watched as the naturals are able to get an interface with their key customers during this shut-down while the others are struggling to get an audience because they’re trying to fill relationship cracks that didn’t affect them during better times.

I think that’s what we’re seeing in the 2021 class.

Ohio State’s Ryan Day is absolutely killing it on the trail this cycle. But this shouldn’t be a surprise. He was able to weather the loss of Urban Meyer in late 2018 and still signed three 5-star recruits (and recruited Fields as well) and followed that up with a top-5 class in 2019.

We may not have noticed since Meyer was consistently bringing in those types of classes as well, but the jump in his bump class was a harbinger for things to come.

You can say the same thing about Mack Brown this year at North Carolina, Tom Herman in 2018 at Texas and Mario Cristobal at Oregon. It’s actually why I’m not worried about Tennessee. Jeremy Pruitt hasn’t seen any huge bump in his recruiting and likely is going to end up right where he has been his first two years at the end of this cycle too.

But for those coaches who struggle with salesmanship (and Mullen seems to be one), COVID-19 is revealing the relationship cracks I referred to above.

On pages 151 and 152 of Urban Meyer’s book, “Urban’s Way,” Meyer is quoted as saying the following:

“Tim (Tebow) almost didn’t come to Florida because of him (Mullen). We had to overcome our quarterback coach to get Tim Tebow to come here.”

He also indicates that every QB under Mullen had issues with him but eventually came to love him, saying, “Chris Leak had that problem and wound up loving Dan. Josh Harris (Bowling Green) didn’t like Dan at first. Now he and Josh talk all the time. When he first got Alex Smith (Utah) they didn’t hit it off right away. He and Alex are best friends now.”

Is this still the case? Maybe Mullen has changed significantly. But the fact that the measurables associated with recruiting have decreased this year with the pandemic in full gear does indicate to me that recruits have to get to know him rather than him being able to sell his vision quickly and easily.

He’s just not a natural recruiter.

That’s not meant as a knock on Mullen. I love that his players grow to love him. But I do think it may explain what we’re seeing without being able to get face-to-face with potential recruits.

Takeaway

There aren’t any quick fixes here. In fact, I’m not sure there are any fixes at all.

The facilities are coming and Mullen is going to get to sell them. But until Florida decides to invest as heavily as Georgia in recruiting (they have the money), that’s a significant hand that is tied behind Mullen’s back.

Short of beating Georgia (a big issue), Mullen has done everything he can do on the field. The perception of the Gator program as a national power is back, with pundits picking Florida to potentially make the playoff this season. That just hasn’t translated into recruiting results.

And I’m wary of making too many staff changes – short of stopping some of the public criticism of players and recruits – because those guys are a big part of what Mullen does on the field. He is a fantastic schematic coach who develops his players really, really well for the next level. I’m not sure you’ve taken a significant step forward if you bring in a coach who recruits extremely well but can’t coach Mullen’s schemes.

And I’m not sure how you become a more natural salesman. If I knew how, this website would probably make me a lot more money than it does. Instead, I’m an engineer writing about football rather than a writer because I’m terrible at and uncomfortable promoting myself and my work.

But not all is lost. Mullen is a fantastic football coach. And remember what I said above, that there are three ways that you win big in College Football.

As a scientist, this is a fascinating experiment for me.

I know you can win with elite recruiting and coaching. Urban Meyer had that advantage in his time in Gainesville because he had Dan Mullen on his staff.

What I don’t know is whether you can win consistently being just a good recruiter but an elite on-field coach/developer. We’re about to find out because the Georgia recruiting juggernaut isn’t going away.

But Mullen isn’t going anywhere either.

For all his strengths and weaknesses, he’s the Gators coach and he has some significant strengths. And instead of asking why he’s struggling with recruiting so much, I think it’s time we ask ourselves what we think he can do with the recruits that he has?

Because despite the rankings, these are still some really good players. And being coached by Dan Mullen should bring out the best in them. And because if he is able to take down Kirby Smart while Kirby is recruiting the way he is at Georgia, it says something about the recruiting vs. coaching debate and something about Smart and Mullen as coaches.

But it’s also because I think we need to revisit our expectations around recruiting.

When Mullen was struggling with his 2019 recruiting class, I compared him to Urban Meyer, Ron Zook and Will Muschamp because those guys set a recruiting bar that is attainable at Florida.

But it doesn’t mean that every coach will be able to attain it. And it also doesn’t mean that every coach can do the same thing with those players.

Dan Mullen with Ron Zook’s players would have (and did) win championships. I think he would have done the same with Muschamp’s players. He just put together two top-10 finishes with Jim McElwain’s.

I do believe strongly that history teaches that coaches need top-5 recruiting classes to win the SEC and compete for National Championships consistently. But if we always knew the outcome of sports, they wouldn’t be any fun. In some ways, Dan Mullen with elite recruiting would make the championship outcome inevitable.

Sometimes it’s more fun to be overlooked. Sometimes it’s more fun to be the underdog.

And man, will it be fun if Dan Mullen can prove me – and history – wrong.

My friends at MY Prints

I met Steven Moreno almost two years ago when my research group was trying to develop an ink for textile printing.

Steven owns a small company named MY Prints in Los Angeles that does custom printing onto fabric and he was looking for someone who could help him more consistently print on cotton fabrics. My team worked to set up a trial and a couple of us flew out to LA and spent a week getting our ink to work in his printer.

The first thing I noticed upon arrival to his facility was that every single person who walked through the door – whether a Hollywood designer or the FedEx guy – was immediately offered a bottle of water and something to eat. He took time to get to know us rather than just getting to know our company or what we could do for him. And when we brought donuts, he ate one even though he had just started a sugar-free diet because he didn’t want us to feel awkward.

Day after day, the thing we noticed was how much his customers trusted him and his opinion and how well he treated everyone. And very quickly, I came to trust him in much the same way and Steven has become a really good friend.

When my daughter Amelia was considering writing her children’s book, she sketched out her characters. I had only spoken to Steven a couple of times on the phone and I mentioned it in passing, and before I knew it, he had printed her artwork onto a fleece fabric and FedEx’d it to me so that I’d have time to make her a blanket for Christmas.

There was nothing better than the look on her face when she saw her design on a gift for her.

But COVID-19 has taken its toll on a lot of small business owners, and Steven is no exception. The ability to have people come to his shop in LA has been significantly limited by shut-downs in the area. In response, the company has developed more of an online presence, but he could still use some help.

I’m not asking for a handout (he’d never allow it). But I know a bunch of you have man-caves that need to be decorated. There’s an image that you would love to have custom printed and mounted on your wall on fabric with backlighting. You want a custom Gator design for an Etsy shop or upholstery. Or perhaps you have a design in your head that you want to bring to life.

Steven can help make that happen.

So if you’ve been fortunate enough to have maintained your employment during COVID, and if you enjoy reading this site, I’d like to ask that you consider looking at MY Prints website and reaching out to Steven to get something custom made for you.

You couldn’t help a better person.

FEATURED IMAGE USED UNDER CREATIVE COMMONS LICENSE COURTESY GOARMYPHOTOS