The SEC announced its coronavirus-modified schedule on Friday to much fanfare.
At that moment, it seemed like College Football was going to move forward in spite of the coronavirus, much like things have moved forward for MLB, the NHL, the NBA and professional golf.
But then on Saturday, the Mid-American Conference (MAC) canceled its season due to the virus. With that cancelation came a bunch of commentary from well-established College Football reporters that Power-5 ADs are becoming more and more doubtful that a season will be played.
News from CBS Sports: 2 Power Five ADs: ‘Inevitable’ 2020 college football season will not be played this fall https://t.co/3XKwARGm6k
— Dennis Dodd (@dennisdoddcbs) August 9, 2020
Chances are if you’ve spent any time listening to the political arguments, you’ve heard about the risks of the virus and the sacrifice that players are making going back to play. But I want to talk about a different kind of risk and a different kind of sacrifice.
You may not be aware of it, but currently there are 10,000 children globally per month who are dying of hunger because of coronavirus-related food shortages. There are also 550,000+ children per month who are going to be affected by “wasting”, a condition caused by malnutrition that causes irreversible long-term physical and mental disabilities.
Because people are not traveling like they normally do, oil prices have plunged. In countries like South Sudan (99% of exports are oil), that means that the economy is on the verge of complete collapse.
And tuberculosis – which kills 1.5 million people annually – is starting to spread more aggressively as well. Estimates put the cost of additional lockdowns at somewhere between 400,000 and 1.4 million excess deaths due to TB over the next five years.
These are mostly consequences in countries far away from us. But in the U.S., hospitals are reporting less visits for strokes and heart attacks, as people suffering from these afflictions are avoiding getting help because of fear of the virus. Vaccinations have also sharply declined in the U.S., again as parents try to do the right thing to keep their kids safe.
Domestic violence is up during the lockdowns. There are concerns that suicides tied to COVID have or are going to spike. And many schools are having kids learn virtually, a decision that will surely widen the gap between children who have parents equipped to help them at home and those who don’t.
So what does this have to do with College Football? Well, everything actually.
If the season is played, some players are going to get the disease. There may be some who have life-changing complications or even – God forbid – die from it. While the probability of either one happening is exceedingly low based on the data we have, there’s a lot we don’t know and probabilities only matter to those unaffected directly.
The fact is that there will always be risk involved in engaging in any form of what we would have considered “normal” prior to March, even when or if a vaccine becomes available.
But that risk can be mitigated.
The players are going to have better medical care than they would have at home. They’re going to know quickly if they have been exposed to the virus either within their own team or through contact with an opponent because they are going to be tested. And they are going to know whether their teammates have been following social distancing protocols.
Most of us don’t have that at our jobs, or even at home if we’ve been laid off or are fortunate enough to be able to work remotely.
Every time I go to work, I have to rely on the people I work with to not place themselves in high-risk situations and stay home if they are experiencing symptoms. College Football players are going to be quarantined if they cough because food went down the wrong pipe.
I don’t think the idea that players are unpaid changes these facts. Conferences have already made it clear that players who don’t want to play don’t have to and will be able to keep their scholarships. And I just can’t get past that these players are likely safer playing and practicing than they are visiting the local 7/11 after practice for a Slurpee.
Pay them if you want, but that’s a separate discussion that shouldn’t have anything to do with COVID-19.
This coronavirus isn’t going away. People are going to continue getting sick and dying from it. That’s a scary proposition for people living in a country where living well into our 80s is a birth-right, especially because contracting it doesn’t come from some nefarious person wishing to do us harm, but likely a friend or family member who would never want to hurt us.
And if you’re a high-risk individual, I certainly support having programs in place to help support you while outbreaks are present in your particular area.
But we are some of the richest people the world has ever seen. Based on consumption, the poorest 20% of Americans live better than most European countries, let alone many of the developing countries that are teetering on the edge.
The United State is far better equipped to weather the issues that come with an economic shutdown than just about any country. But we’re also far better equipped to deal with the pandemic as well, both from an economic and medical treatment standpoint.
I’m incredibly thankful that I live in a country with those advantages. But with those kind of advantages, there is – or at least there should be – a moral responsibility to help others who don’t have them.
That means we can’t just consider how coronavirus may impact us or our family. It means we have to consider how our actions – or lack thereof – will impact the 10,000 children per month who are going to die because of food shortages in no part because their local economies are collapsing.
We have to consider the people who are going to die of tuberculosis, HIV and malaria. We have to consider the people who are going to die of preventable diseases because they didn’t get vaccinated. We have to consider the kids who are going to go to jail because their schools were shut down.
College Football is a part of that, not just because of the dollars that it generates, but also because of its place within our cultural discussion and college’s role in driving discourse forward.
I get it. It can be scary to put people you care about in harm’s way.
I had the same thought when my wife and I talked about whether we should let our kids participate in Little League this year. But it was a pretty easy decision to let our kids play.
The conclusion that we came to was that we can’t protect them from everything that is going to cross their path in this world. We can only do our best to keep them safe based on what we know. And what I know is that my three children are extraordinarily unlikely to be impacted by this virus, as am I.
I’d be absolutely gutted if one of them was. But I’m also absolutely gutted at the thought of the 120,000 parents who are going to watch their kids waste away over the next year because we’ve been too afraid to open up the economy here at home.
And I can’t reconcile the fact that we’re letting our fear of what might happen override our moral obligation to prevent what we know will happen.
On Thursday, University of Georgia students and faculty participated in a die-in to protest the school’s plans to open up in a couple of weeks. Their demands were mandatory facemasks, virtual instruction with zero consequences and free COVID testing.
But Georgia is offering virtual options, has face-to-face instruction with social distancing protocols and indoor mask requirements in place, and Athens has free COVID testing already. I’m not sure how much more college can be de-risked.
While I appreciate their accuracy in replicating their football team’s recent fourth quarter performances against Alabama, this is just crazy.
Life is not risk-free. College is supposed to teach us that, and provide us a place to gather to learn and discuss those sorts of trade-offs.
It’s where we’re supposed to look at statistics and probabilities and discuss how they should shape public policy. It’s where we’re supposed to look at the morality and philosophy of prioritizing our needs over others. It’s also where we’re supposed to research not just viral treatments and prevention, but also how shut-downs affect supply chains and the moral ramifications to those sorts of shut-downs.
The Power-5 conferences have an opportunity to force these types of discussions. They have the opportunity to tell their players they will do their best to keep them safe, but that life isn’t risk free. They have the opportunity to teach their students that people are dying today because of these shut-downs without ever contracting the virus.
Sports are valuable because they give us a prism to examine life and culture, and make us comtemplate questions we otherwise wouldn’t. They help teach us lessons that we can’t get anywhere else.
But those lessons can only happen if you play.
Mike Wood
Awesome
PMB-BTR
Well written King Canute. And yet our feet are all getting wet.
Will Miles
Had to look up the reference 🙂
PMB-BTR
The real King Canute story is one of humility and honesty. Canute wanted to demonstrate to others the limits of even kings in the face of the power of the natural world,
Sean
Awesome article Will.
Greg Roche
Faulty logic. The concerns you cite are real. They can be much more effectively and directly addressed through direct aid or intervention. We are the wealthiest country in the world and have printed trillions of dollars in relief already. The economics of college football is important, but not the answer to the problems of the world’s health and safety.
Quote from your article. “And what I know is that my three children are extraordinarily unlikely to be impacted by this virus, as am I.” This is not about you or your family. You will be just fine. It is the risk you are willing to subject other people for your entertain.
Will Miles
I’m not suggesting college football is the solution. I’m suggesting that open markets are, but to open them in times of covid requires some risk. I’m fine having a debate about risk tolerances, but shut downs/cancellations don’t take the risk down to zero. In fact, as I point out in the article, for players it likely increases the risk.
Greg Roche
You make a couple assumptions that are not warranted. By not playing…”for players it likely increases the risk.” Are you expecting them to be less responsible wearing a mask and social distancing because they aren’t under the supervision of coaching during most of the days? I am not aware of any data that supports that claim.
You are correct in that “shut down/cancellations (for any sport) don’t take the risk down to zero.” There is no zero risk as the risk is always relative. Are coaches, trainers, staff, reports and everyone involved going to be sequestered? Given the close living and playing conditions, when there is an outbreak, it will spread quickly. Look what is already happening in high schools when there is an outbreak.
Will Miles
The assumption is that with something to play for, the players will be more careful and the coaches will be on top of them. If I’m 22 years old and they cancel my senior year, I’m going to a bar regardless of whether a coach yells at me when I come to practice hung over. Is that responsible? No, it isn’t. But I wasn’t a very responsible person in college.
Jim Meyers
Well done, Will.
Jim Subers
Great insight Will. Most Americans followed along with the economic shutdown in order to “flatten the curve.” We were told that there were over 2 Million who would die in our country. Now that we know more, we see that the death rate is less than 1/2 of 1%. So, let’s quarantine and protect the most vulnerable, and the rest of the country needs to get back to work, school, football, etc. The curve has flattened, and we need to open up the country! A Bluestone Harrison Study from the 80’s found that a 1 percent rise in the national unemployment rate plays a statistically significant role in various forms of ”social trauma,” and can be associated with 37,000 additional deaths! According to this study, the trauma associated with this shutdown is causing many more deaths than the virus itself!
Ldm
Excellent!
Ken Clarke
The moral imperative says the college football season must be canceled. The health of the players must be placed above every consideration.
As a Gator who has loved college football for 60 years, I can’t wait every summer for the arrival of the next season. I held season tickets for 28 years, and over the years, took more than 60 friends to Gator games. My children grew up properly in the Gator faith. For SEC fans, football on fall Saturdays is more important than church on Sundays. We admit it.
However, I would never forgive myself if even one Gator player had his health ruined for the rest of his life just because I can’t stand the thought of a canceled season. A player who becomes infected by the coronavirus, assuming he survives, may suffer lifelong damage to his heart or lungs.
Would UF pay for that player’s health care for the rest of his life? There are plenty of questions to consider further. If a Gator player is concerned about the danger, does he have the right to opt out of playing this season? If he sits out, would he retain his eligibility status?
What happens if a bunch of Gators balk at playing the next team because that team had gone through a recent outbreak? What are their rights in that case? Would they suffer unwanted consequences if they refuse to participate in such a game — his head coach’s anger, or demotion, or a permanent place in the doghouse, labeled a troublemaker? What would be Mullen’s response to the worried players?
Every player will be attending classes and mingling with fellow students inside and outside of class. How will they be protected from the virus? For most college students, their social life is just as valued as academics. Seriously, even during a pandemic, do you expect students to give up their social lives in the name of safety — parties, bars, cookouts, etc? Players, of course, are students too, and love to party. During the pandemic, how do you protect them in the Petri dish that is a huge college campus like UF’s?
There is too many risks to the players’ lives and continued good health. There are too many questions. I positively hate the idea, but the season must be canceled.
PMB-BTR
Dear Mr. Clarke,
I must respectfully disagree. If the heath of Gator football players were placed “above every consideration” as you assert, then college football would never be played. Every year many football players suffer catastrophic knee injuries. Even in practice. Every year football players suffer potentially life altering concussions. Every year football players routinely suffer any manner of injuries, dislocated hips, shoulder injuries, why even turf-toe, to name a few.
Covid-19 is certainly different in kind from the usual physical risks inherent playing football. I would agree with you if the risk of Covid-19 infection were placed above every other consideration, right now.
But to say the “health” is placed above every consideration, well, That rings false to my ears. I am not complaining, I played football myself. I suppose I risked physical injury myself, but at that young age I firmly believed that I would never be injured. Now, shall I talk about my concussion from football?…
Joaquin
Dude…that is simply not the same. It isn’t. There are certain risks you knowingly undertake and accept when you strap on pads and put a helmet on. Yeah, turf toe, ACL injuries, concussions, the whole 9 yards. The difference is that if someone gets turf toe and goes to the grocery store they might not give it to someone else who the turf toe then might kill. There’s a massive difference between acknowledging the fact that you might break your leg and potentially infecting someone with a virus that could kill them. Maybe the chances of that are slim, but hey, the comparison you tried to make is actually apples and oranges. Sure players can (and many want) to consent to putting themselves at risk for contacting COVID, but the difference between that and a concussion is that when a player gets a concussion there isn’t a risk or that concussion negatively affecting someone else.
Lance King
100% agree. The only way to get over the fear of a pandemic is to get back to life. There are always risks. It’s called life. The only thing I would add is from a religious perspective in my faith in God over fear of dying. But you presented logical information. I know people that struggled deeply because of seperation from people. Elderly are dying because they are seperated from loved ones. Emotional and psychological issues must be weighed.
Will Miles
I had a section on faith but often that takes away from the more secular arguments. For those who don’t believe, the fear is real. It is for even some of us who do.
Randy
Too many unknowns to make that kind of call. We have little knowledge of long term effects of people who have “recovered”.
Leadership has been criminally incompetent and the loss of the college football we all love is just part of the carnage.
I hope Universities can offer a safe haven for athletes who would prefer not to return to their home environments. I understand many athletes wanting to play. The lifelong dreams for many are tied to it. We need not end their dreams, only delay them a bit. Young adults think they’re bulletproof, but many could use an adult in the room who has their best interests at heart.
Will Miles
At what point would the long-term effects be clear enough that you’d allow the games to resume? Give me a metric and maybe I’d come over to your side.
Randy
Knowledge of long term effects and getting the virus under some kind of control go hand in hand. More willing to accept those unknowns when the chance of someone catching it is much lower. Put I think the positivity rate is too high for my liking to ask somebody to risk their health. Guess it’s the Engineer in me, my amateur risk analysis goes with NO, for lack of complete data as much as anything.
The country needed some strong response months ago to make sure we were in a position to open schools in the fall because of how much it ties into everything else. That should have been our target from the start. But they half-assed the response and are now going to throw kids into the grinder for economic reasons. I can’t think of a better virus distribution network than the school system. Just a scary bad situation.
Mike Wood
This virus is not dislike any other virus. You just want to shut down the economy. We can not stay locked up for another six months. People currently have to work or you wouldn’t have food on your table. Everyone needs to share the risk. But this risk is less then a bad outbreak of the common flu. Athletes are pampered. They don’t face the real world. And you must not either. If they want to keep their scholarship, they should have to play. I’m sure others want their scholarships. They can go work at Walmart as cashiers. If you work at Walmart, they are not going to pay you for not working. If you don’t want to work, then you can do without. Having a scholarship is a privilege, not a right. In reality, playing football for a college is much safer then staying home. They have the best meals, the best training, the best doctors. But the players want to play. But you, you want to kill the economy and endanger the athletes. The safest place for them to be is playing football. God forbid we cancel football season and thus cause the death of players that would have been avoided if they were at the school protected with the best meals, the best training, and the best medical care. You really don’t care about the players do you? You rather cancel the season and let the athletes die.
Joaquin
You talk about moral responsibility and how we should consider doing the right thing, in addition to correctly pointing out that if college football is played there will likely be extremely high levels of testing. Is there not a moral obligation to put testing resources towards the general public, rather than funneling them into athletics and putting increased strain on testing facilities in doing so? Speaking as someone who depends on athletics for a living, that’s an issue that every professional sports league has had to answer, and the answer isn’t necessarily a good one. Yes sports provide a much needed outlet and escape from everything that’s going on, and yes there are benefits to having a season, but if we’re talkinng moral obligation…sucking resources away from the public and giving them to a select group of people seems like a pretty easy moral debate to solve.
Will Miles
It’s a great point. I haven’t heard that there is a shortage of testing at this point. But if there is, then certainly those test should be diverted to people who need them.
John
Great article!
James Ruggs
Just hilarious stats and data! False equivalences, over generalizations, typical inbred viewpoints. Congratulations, you failed 9th grade writing standards… in CA… maybe your state had lower standards.
Will Miles
Thanks for reading James. If you have better arguments, please present them. Otherwise, I’m not the one who’s education needs to be besmirched. By the way, I have a Ph.D. in Chemical Engineering from Virginia Tech where my thesis involved the mathematical modeling of magnetic nanoparticles using Derjaguin-Verwey-Landau-Overbeek theory to predict how they would aggregate when used as MRI contrast agents. I’m pretty comfortable with my education.
David
This is such great article. Truly we have to start living on the basis on common sense rather then fear. Treatments for the disease have increase in effectiveness, set precautions have proved to decrease exposure., vaccines are coming soon. A lot of these plasyers careers and life will be permanently effected if they can’t play this season. As Mr Miles pointed out its a choice for them? They are safer playing then at home by statistics. There are 18-24 year olds (millions) making a choice to go to a work place everyday to sustain life, further their long time career goals, or feed a family. What’s the difference of a young man “deciding” to do the same to play football. And look at the economic impact for job creation if the season is not played. Who will be evicted, starve, or on the street if their job is cut because of no season? It’s not just a game! It’s an economic factor in our society. Well done Will!!!
Mike Wood
I don’t understand. There are only two choices. Play football or not play football. The athletes are clearly more safe where they are protected. We all keep worrying about what will happen to the players who play. What about the players who don’t play? What if by scrubbing the season, a player who is no longer protected catches the virus and dies? Then who will be held accountable? You literally could be sentencing the player to death by not playing the season.
It is clear the athletes and the parents of the athletes want to play. The high schools here are practicing. I’ve heard the Ohio high schools are practicing, yet for some reason Ohio State can’t? How can we even think a high school can play if we won’t let universities play. I venture this has nothing, and I mean nothing, to do with player safety. This is totally and completely politics.
To recap: the safest place for players to be is practicing under supervision where they will be isolated, tested, and the very best medical care (and thus also protect their elderly relatives). The least safe place is for players to be on their own, can’t afford to be tested, either not keeping in shape around their friends, or trying to work out in places that won’t even come close to being as sanitary as campus.
It’s time to play football! For the safety of the athletes!