A half-point and a belief in the Muschamp curse over Tennessee cost me a winning record last week. We’ll review last week’s picks at the end of the article.
Time to bounce back.
SOUTH CAROLINA AT #3 FLORIDA -18.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Florida (-1000) / South Carolina (+600)
Total: Over/Under 57.5 (-110)
*Betting lines pulled from Bovada on Wednesday, 9/24
TIME/TV: 12:00 PM ET/ESPN – Mark Jones, Dusty Dvoracek, Marty Smith
Quick hitter notes:
- Florida moved up to #3 in the polls this week, its highest ranking since USC head coach Will Muschamp led the Gators in 2012.
- Dan Mullen is 3-0 in head-to-head meetings with Muschamp.
- Gators DC Todd Grantham spent four years on the same staff with USC OC Mike Bobo at Georgia.
- University of Florida Athletic Hall of Fame linebacker, Mike Peterson, a team captain, first team All-SEC, and All-American serves the Outside Linebackers coach for South Carolina
- The Gamecocks are 2-12 at The Swamp since joining the SEC in 1992
Why the Gators will cover
Kyle Trask is not just a great QB but he also helps small kids in the offseason pic.twitter.com/CKZWUU2ZYy
— Hersh (@JHershey21) September 27, 2020
There are 416 reasons Florida will cover thanks to a quarterback by the name of Kyle Trask. The senior signal caller looked as comfortable as ever in Dan Mullen’s offense as the offense scored on 9 of 11 drives. No Gator has tossed for six touchdowns since Chris Leak against South Carolina in 2004. (Doug Johnson (1997-CMU) and Terry Dean (1994=NMSU) hold the score record with seven TD passes in one game).
Florida racked up 642 yards of offense, a new school record for total yards against an SEC opponent, and 11 players hauled in at least one reception. Trevon Grimes and Jacob Copeland caught three passes each. Kadarius Toney proved to be a tough matchup and was active in both the running and receiving game. More involvement from Toney against Carolina could make the offensive even more explosive.
Friends, the #FreeToney movement may have arrived
— Trevor Sikkema (@TampaBayTre) September 26, 2020
The running game showed some signs of life with 202 rushing yards against an Ole Miss defensive unit that has struggled over the last few years. South Carolina will present a different challenge up front. Expect the rushing numbers to dip this week and for the Gators to focus on attacking the Gamecocks through the air.
On the defensive side of the ball, I chose to fully hold off on panicking about last week’s performance in Oxford. The Rebels were a toxic mixture of solid playmakers paired with a great play-caller. Florida’s secondary blew a few assignments and seemed to be hurt by the early ejection of senior safety Shawn Davis. If the secondary can cut down on their mistakes, South Carolina should serve as a “get-right” game for the Gators.
DE Brenton Cox Jr. played as well as advertised. His freakish athletic ability was on full display when his tipped pass landed in the hands of 6’6″, 308 lb monster DT Gervon Dexter. The true freshman only had one tackle on the day, but I expect him to have more of an impact this week. LB Ventrell Miller was all over the field racking up 15 tackles, 2 TFL, and 1 sack.
Why the Gamecocks will cover
Colorado State transfer quarterback Collin Hill followed his head coach Mike Bobo to Columbia and earned the starting role after the third ACL tear of his career in the Rams’ third game of 2019. Despite only playing two and a half games last season, Hill still tossed for 837 yards and 8 TDs.
Last week against Tennessee, Hill dropped back 39 times and threw for 290 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT in his SEC debut. The bulk of his targets went to senior WR Shi Smith who hauled in 10 passes for 140 yards. South Carolina was not nearly as effective on the ground, notching only 89 rushing yards, but sophomore RB Kevin Harris ripped off a few impressive runs finishing the day with 55 yards rushing on 13 carries.
LB Earnest Jones tallied 11 tackles and BUCK J.J. Enagbare recorded two sacks and forced a fumble. Carolina held Tennessee to 1-11 on third down conversions A pick six helped spring the Vols to a two-touchdown lead at one point, but the Cocks battled back and tied the game 24-24 before a late fumble on a punt return ultimately cost Carolina the game. The Gamecocks may have battled back against Tennessee, but these types of mistakes will bury them in Gainesville. If Carolina can avoid any big blunders, they should have no issue covering such a large spread.
Final Verdict
In Dan Mullen’s first two seasons in Gainesville, Will Muschamp and Carolina have lost two tightly contested games. The Gators needed a 21-point fourth quarter outburst last season to put away a feisty USC squad in Columbia and Feleipe Franks told us to shut up while ripping off 21-straight points to lead Florida back from a 31-14 deficit late in the third quarter.
The past is the past, I know, but I think it’s important to note how teams tend to compete against one another. Mullen’s 2020 Gators looked primed to be his most explosive yet, but I’m wary of making too many bold proclamations early on. Let’s be honest with ourselves, Gator fans, Ole Miss and Carolina are operating on different levels on the defensive side of the football. No defense will completely shutdown this Gators offense, but the Gamecocks are certainly capable of bringing Florida back to Earth. That being said, I’m still expecting a good day out of the UF offense.
Is it blasphemy to expect the Gators to have a tougher time with a better defensive unit?
Florida will still score – but the numbers will fall off. Trask will still be in the neighborhood of 300 yards passing with 2-3 TDs. I’m curious to see how Muschamp decides to handle Pitts this week. The all-world tight end only posted 29 yards on five receptions last season against South Carolina. I suspect big #84 won’t be running so freely this weekend as he did against the Rebs.
On the other hand, the Florida defense won’t have its hands nearly as full as it did last week. The return of Shawn Davis should patch up the back end though I expect Grantham’s defensive plan to focus on shutting down the run game. Since this will be the case, Hill’s passing total could be a bit inflated.
The Gators will control this game from start to finish and cruise to a win, but the fightin’ chickens will hang around just enough to cover the spread.
SOUTH CAROLINA +18 (-110)
MISSOURI AT #21 TENNESSEE -11.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Tennessee (-480) / Missouri (+340)
Total: Over/Under 48.5 (-110)
Tennessee won its seventh straight in a close road win over South Carolina. Some are high on Rocky Top heading into 2020 and there’s data to back up the optimism, however, if the Vols are close to returning to the top of the SEC East they must take care of business in these types of matchups.
Missouri has been a thorn in Tennessee’s side since joining the SEC. The Tigers are 5-3 against the Volunteers and won 50-17 in their last trip the Neyland Stadium. Last year, the Vols won a tight one 24-20 to advance their current seven game win streak to four games. QB Jarrett Guarantano torched the Tigers for 415 yards through the air. Despite Tennessee’s 526 total yards to 280 total yards edge over Missouri, the game was tied until until late in the third quarter.
TCU transfer QB Shawn Robinson was not effective against Alabama. The redshirt junior did connect on a 54-yard touchdown pass midway through the fourth quarter. He split time with redshirt freshman QB Connor Bazelak, who led a touchdown drive in the final seconds of the game. Expect both to continue to split time on Saturday.
We’re at least a couple of years away from the Volunteers being a serious threat to Florida or Georgia, but it’s time for Tennessee to rise up above the Mizzou/Kentucky/Carolina crowd and establish themselves as next in line behind Florida and Georgia in the East. Tennessee keeps the win streak going, but Mizzou keeps it close.
MISSOURI +11.5 (-110)
#13 TEXAS A&M AT #2 ALABAMA -18.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Alabama (-1000) / Texas A&M (+600)
Total: Over/Under 51.5 (-110)
A discouraging five-point win over Vandy has taken some luster off of this game. Since Johnny Football rolled into Tuscaloosa eight years ago, the Texas A&M football team has lost seven straight to Saban and Alabama.
This matchup has all the makings of a rivalry and when Jimbo and his $75 million entered onto the scene a couple years back, many hoped he would turn help to turn the tide of this one-sided SEC West affair. Instead, Bama has laid two Texas-sized whoopings on Fisher’s Aggies and is looking to go for a third on Saturday…or at least that’s what I thought at first.
Bama rolled out to a 35-3 lead over Mizzou before taking its foot off the gas and allowing a couple of late scores to a clearly outmatched Tigers team. Saban has followed this script in the past. Once he’s sure of a victory, he’ll pull the starters and not worry about running up the score. That is what taking care of business looks like against an inferior opponent is supposed to look like. Texas A&M did not put on that type of performance against Vanderbilt and that leaves many pundits justifiably writing off the Aggies in this one.
I belong to the school of thought that says Texas A&M needs to prove itself before earning real respect in the SEC. Johnny Football was great, Kyle Field is spectacular for a big game, but outside of those elements, Texas A&M hasn’t had much to talk about since that 2012 season. Though Fisher may never live up to the impossible standards set by a $75 million deal, he does have the Aggies headed in the right direction.
I went back and watched A&M’s opener against Vanderbilt and came away frustrated by the Aggies’ lack of ability to string together multiple positive plays. I expected more from senior QB Kellen Mond and that offense assuming they would be playing at a high-level in their only tune-up for a two-game stretch against #2 Alabama and #3 Florida. The Aggies were so sloppy that it became difficult to make a clear judgment on Fisher’s third team. The performance was so bad that I’m willing to say there is no way Texas A&M plays as poorly against Alabama after a week spent cleaning up the mistakes.
The Aggies were clearly bigger, stronger, and faster. Fisher has recruited some top-tier athletes to College Station. Those athletes didn’t come to A&M fired up to compete against Vandy. Lame excuse? Maybe…but Gator fans have watched more talented UF teams sleepwalk through Vanderbilt games enough times to cut A&M some slack on this performance. They are a team that is ready stand as one of the top competitors against Alabama in the West.
Bama’s offense is now led by QB Mac Jones and with weapons like RB Najee Harris and WR Jaylen Waddle, the Tide should remain lethal on that side of the ball. The main focus in 2020 will be on the Alabama defense. A rash of injuries forced young players into the lineup last year which hurt Bama in big games. Returning players combined with experienced talent should improve things on the defensive side of the ball.
Alabama certainly has the talent to run up the score in this one, however, I expect an improved Aggies squad to show enough fight to cover a huge 18.0 point spread…and if I’m wrong, hopefully, Saban takes his foot off of the gas in this one. From a Florida perspective, whether A&M wins or loses, root for a dogfight. Let the Aggies wear themselves out fighting for the SEC West a week before the Gators make their second ever trip to College Station.
#13 TEXAS A&M +18.0 (-110)
OLE MISS AT KENTUCKY -6.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Kentucky (-225) / Ole Miss (+185)
Total: Over/Under 61.5 (-110)
Kentucky had little issue traveling to The Plains last week. The Cats were down 15-13 in the fourth quarter until two late turnovers swung the game toward Auburn.
For the first time is quite sometime, Kentucky played a football game with a real quarterback. QB Terry Wilson entered back into the fold and tossed for 239 yards on 37 attempts. Their running game was not as potent accounting only for 145 yards on 40 attempts. Expect both of those stat lines to go up against a less than stellar Rebels’ defense.
What Ole Miss lacks in defense, they make up for in offense. QB Matt Corral had an impressive stat line against Florida and should do damage again, but this game will play out at a slower pace. Kiffin and the Rebels enjoyed playing at warp speed with the Gators. Stoops and Kentucky will take the opposite approach of Mullen. The Cats will go to the ground to limit possessions. RB Asim Rose, RB Kavosiey Smoke, and RB Chrisopher Rodriguez Jr. will split carries and Wilson will also get into the action running option reads.
Top-to-bottom, Kentucky has a deeper roster which Stoops has had years to develop. They deserve to be favored. If the Cats can effectively run the ball, they should win and cover easy. Ole Miss will make their share of mistakes and though they will be dealing with reduced possessions, they’ll score quickly on at least a couple of drives. I don’t trust the Rebels to string together enough drives to cover while simultaneously not trusting the Wildcats to keep their distance enough to cover. The defenses make enough plays to avoid a Florida-Ole Miss style shootout and this one goes under.
Under 61.5 (-110)
#7 AUBURN AT #4 GEORGIA -7.0 (Even)
Moneyline: Georgia (-245) / Auburn (+205)
Total: Over/Under 45.0 (-115)
QB Stetson Bennett bailed Georgia out of a poor first half performance by going 20/29 for 211 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. The Dawgs morphed into the team we expected to see in the second half. Real concerns remain, however, a talented UGA roster will add five-star Southern Cal transfer J.T. Daniels when Georgia plays host to Auburn on Saturday.
The Tigers survived a fight with Kentucky and come into this game leaning sophomore QB Bo Nix and a defense which forced three turnovers on opening weekend.
Nix is no stranger to a big game. Auburn faced seven ranked teams in his 13 starts last season, going 3-4 in those games. In those four losses, Auburn only lost by more seven points once (24-13 at #10 Florida). Nix will not wow you with big numbers, but he knows how to manage a game and keep things close.
Daniels is a pocket passer who will fit right into what Georgia wants to do on the offensive side of the ball. He’ll be a welcome sight for deep threat WR George PIckens and should open up running lanes for RB Zamir White and RB James Cook. New OC Todd Monken should focus on on getting the ball in the hands of White this week. White only had 15 touches against Arkansas and should see an increased workload against the Tigers.
Similar to what I said about Texas A&M, I’m willing to overlook a poor opening half by the Dawgs and buy stock in the addition of Daniels. Neither quarterback will put up big numbers against stout defenses, but Daniels gives UGA just enough to pull out a win.
Georgia Moneyline (-250)
ARKANSAS AT #16 MISSISSIPPI STATE -17.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Mississippi State (-850) / Arkansas (+525)
Total: Over/Under 69.0 (-110)
Hop on… it's going to be a fun ride!
📝: https://t.co/kla7YAX9WW#HailState🐶 pic.twitter.com/EsIgrfleN2
— Mississippi State Football (@HailStateFB) September 28, 2020
Pirates, cowbells, and bandwagons-we’re one game into the Mike Leach era at Mississippi State and it’s already must see TV.
The Bulldogs walked through the valley of death unscathed and should have little issue running their record to 2-0 against Sam Pittman and the rebuilding Razorbacks.
Arkansas was pleased with their defensive effort last week against Georgia, but the Hogs face quite a different challenge in this one. Look for Stanford transfer K.J. Costello to rack up yards and points as the Bulldogs continue their hot streak on the offensive side of the ball. The concern is with the defense.
Two second half interceptions were about they only thing that slowed LSU down last week. Lost in the excitement over State’s upset was the fact that LSU put up 345 yards through the air. The Razorbacks will enter the game with less talent than a Tigers team that scored 34 points, however, they will have more experience at the quarterback position.
QB Feleipe Franks will be a tougher test for this Bulldogs defense and should find the end zone a few times. I don’t expect the Razorbacks to seriously threaten Mississippi State, but I don’t trust the Bulldogs with this big of a number on the spread.
The Hogs defense did hold Georgia to five points in the first half last week before surrendering 32 points in the second half to a quarterback who was fourth on the UGA depth chart as recently as one month ago. While Arkansas should take some level of optimism from a better than expected performance, UGA had no issues once they woke up.
Leach and Costello will make several trips to the end zone, however, the Mississippi State defense will struggle to hold down Franks and the Hogs. Even though it’s a high Total at 69.0, I’ll ride the over bandwagon.
Over 69.0 (-110)
#20 LSU -20.5 (-110) AT VANDERBILT
Moneyline: LSU (-1400) / Vanderbilt (+750)
Total: Over/Under 49.5 (-110)
LSU lived in fantasyland in 2019. All good things come to an end.
Folks in the purple and gold are not used to losing to Mississippi State. It could make for a crummy week, but 2020 is a good year for a rebuild. The Tigers have plenty of talent and are not the first defense that has been shredded by Mike Leach.
Last season, Vanderbilt surprised some by scoring 38 on the eventual national champions. Will we see a repeat in that type of performance from Vanderbilt?
Not a chance.
Freshman QB Ken Seals pieced together a few nice drives at Texas A&M and had one well-placed touchdown pass to Amir Abur-Rahiman late in the third quarter. RB Ja’Veon Marlow added 65 yards on 16 carries. Overall, Vandy struggled to get much of a push up front against an athletically gifted A&M defensive front.
QB Myles Brennan ain’t Joe Burrow, but he ain’t all that bad either. The Bulldogs were a horrendous opening week matchup for the Bayou Bengals, but I expect Brennan to make fewer mistakes since he will not be under the same amount of pressure to deliver drive to drive. Getting CB Derek Stingley back will help the secondary recover.
I took the bait and got burned on a couple of large spreads last week-I’ll take the bait again and count on LSU to bounce back in a big way. Tigers ride a strong offense and a good matchup on defense to an easy victory.
#20 LSU -20.5 (-110)
Season in Review
Week 1 : 3-4 OVERALL
Game by game rundown of last week’s picks.
FLORIDA -14.0 + OVER 57.0 – CORRECT
- A strong start gave way to a tough finish in Week 1. The Gators covered the spread and the total went over.
KENTUCKY +7.5 – INCORRECT
- I liked Kentucky and the pick looked good until a fourth quarter turnover and a failed fake punt.
OVER 57.0 (-110) – CORRECT
- I stayed away from picking LSU as the favorite out of respect for Mike Leach, but I didn’t see 623 yards coming! What a start to the Leach era in Starkville!
GEORGIA -26.0 (-110) – CORRECT
- It was ugly, but the Dawgs bounced back after a rough first half against a scrappy Arkansas bunch to cover on a last minute field goal.
ALABAMA -27.5 (-110) – INCORRECT
- I thought the Tide would be able to survive Saban taking his foot off of the gas late in the game. Things were looking good as the Tide jumped out to a 35-3 lead, but Mizzou ended up covering easily.
PARLAY: TEXAS A&M -30.5 (-110) + OVER 46.0 – INCORRECT
“You talking about Vanderbilt?”
- If you haven’t seen this week’s SEC Shorts, I’d recommend checking it out (below). The scene with the Texas A&M fan tells you more than I ever could about the Aggies’ lackluster performance against Vandy.
SOUTH CAROLINA +3.5 – INCORRECT
- The Muschamp curse nearly came through, but the Cocks dropped their home opener by a mere four points. Painful four point loss for those who took USC and the points.