Nick’s Picks: SEC Week 3
Gators look to continue hot start, Vols-Dawgs draw first blood in East race, and LSU game shifted to Mizzou

A two game sample size on the SEC season will help me get over the 3-4 hump this week.

FLORIDA -7.0 (EVEN) AT TEXAS A&M

Moneyline: Florida (-250) / Texas A&M (+210)
Total: Over/Under 57.0

*Betting lines pulled from Bovada on Thursday 10/8

TIME/TV:  12:00 PM ET (ESPN) / Dave Pasch, Greg McElroy, and Holly Rowe

Quick hitter notes:

• Kyle Trask became the third player in SEC history to throw at least 10 touchdown passes through the first two games of the season. The others were Kentucky’s Tim Couch (12 against Louisville and Eastern Kentucky in 1998) and Florida’s Terry Dean (11 against New Mexico State and Kentucky in 1994), per ESPN Stats & Info.
• The Gators lead the SEC with 7.8 yards per play through its first two games.
• Texas A&M was 0-4 against ranked opponents in the SEC in 2019; the Aggies are 1-1 against UF as SEC foes; Jimbo Fisher holds a 7-1 record against the Gators from his time at FSU

Why the Gators will cover

Offensive firepower.

Texas A&M has struggled to move the ball to open the season and the Aggies defense looked vulnerable against at times against Vanderbilt and often against Alabama. Florida will be closer to the Alabama side of the spectrum.

Kyle Trask, a Texas native, revealed this week that he was named after Kyle Field, home to the Aggies.  Makes me wonder how many little Ben Hill Griffins are running around out there?

Trask and the offense are cookin’ to open the season.  Through two games this season, Florida’s senior quarterback and Heisman candidate has racked up 684 yards through the air while completing 71.8% of his passes and 10 TDs, six of which have gone to his favorite target TE Kyle PItts.

While Pitts gets the bulk of the attention, it’s important to note that Trask completed passes to nine different receivers last week and 11 different receivers in the opener. This offense is multifaceted and it will take an elite defense to have a shot at slowing it down. Luckily for the Gators, the Aggies do not possess an elite defense.

The real questions surrounding Florida lie on the defensive side of the ball. We saw improvement last week, but the defense still has a ways to go. The secondary cut down on the major breakdowns we saw against Ole Miss and had the Gators not provided Carolina with a couple of short field opportunities off of turnovers, the Gamecocks would have likely been held to under 20 points.

It’s not worth stressing over this defense if you’re a Florida fan. The offense can carry the Gators, but I would like to see the defense force a few more mistakes. Through two games, Florida has only forced two turnovers while A&M has turned it over four times (two in each game) this season.

Expect an aggressive defense looking to force a couple of turnovers on Saturday.

Why the Aggies will cover

They won’t.

I wish I could just stick with that as an acceptable breakdown of what we’ve seen from the Aggies so far.

Since the 75 million dollar man has arrived in College Station, A&M has recruited well, but thanks to a brutal schedule on an annual basis, we’ve yet to see those results translate into on field success.

I was a fan of the Jimbo hire for multiple reasons, most having to do with generally being in favor of his exit from Tallahassee, and was ready to believe that the Aggies would take the next step in the SEC West this season with a depleted LSU and a so-so Auburn. However, A&M crushed that belief with a joke of a performance last Saturday in Tuscaloosa.

It’s not fair to expect Texas A&M to jump Bama by year three of Jimbo, but is it fair to expect the Aggies to at least keep the television audience engaged into the second half?

I think so.

The Aggies defense was ripped to shreds by a Tide attack that racked up 435 yards through the air. Even if A&M improves on that number this weekend, I don’t see this being a  defensive unit Kyle Trask will fear.

Offensively, a major source of disappointment through two games lies with senior quarterback Kellen Mond.  We were introduced to Mond as a freshman and have high hopes for him ever since. When he torched Clemson for 430 yards passing, 3 TDs, and 0 INTs in game two of the Jimbo era in 2018, some felt the sky was the limit. Mond was not only super talented, but he was lucky enough to work under Fisher who had worked wonders with his quarterbacks in Tallahassee.

Mond, like the A&M program to this point under Fisher, is better than average, but we’ve yet to see him take the next step. Mond will be good for a few highlights and he’ll help RBs Isaiah Spiller and Ainias Smith in the running game, but the senior quarterback will have to deliver a career best performance if the Aggies are going to have a chance in this one.

Final Verdict

I sold all of my Texas A&M stock after witnessing the carnage at Bryant-Denny Stadium. The Aggies are not ready to compete with the big boys in the SEC and Florida is showing signs of a program that is on the verge of regaining its big boy status.

This should be a tough road trip. This should be a game that has Florida fans nervous. It’s not…and that speaks volumes about where the Texas A&M program stands in the minds of those who follow the SEC.

Expect Trask and the offense to continue to have their way while the defense finds a way to contribute this week. The Gators will score early and often. Florida wins big.

FLORIDA -7.0 (EVEN)

 

TENNESSEE AT GEORGIA -12.5 (-110)

Moneyline: Georgia (-500) / Tennessee (+350)
Total: Over/Under 43.0

I’m actually looking forward to watching Tennessee play…weird, right? I liked what I’ve seen from the Vols so far and think they may be able to make things interesting on Saturday. A&M burned me last week at Bama, so my faith in “programs ready to take the next step” is a little shaky right now, but I might actually take a the leap of faith and bet on this Tennessee team.

Tennessee beat up on Mizzou. Let’s hold off on anointing a long-overdue return to relevance for the Vols, however, let’s also give credit where credit is due.

Pruitt’s offense went to work on the ground last Saturday, 51 times to be exact, and steamrolled the Tigers for 232 yards rushing. RBs Eric Gray and Ty Chandler carried most of the workload with QB Jarrett Guarantano mixing in occasionally. The senior quarterback out of Bergen Catholic High School in Oradell, NJ, was only asked to throw 23 times last week. Finding success in the run game will be far more difficult to duplicate this week in Athens, but the Vols need to stubbornly stick to their bread and butter if they are going have a shot.

The Tennessee defense also has to continue their dominance up front. The Volunteers only allowed 89 rushing yards on 35 attempts (2.5 ypc) against South Carolina and 126 rushing yards on 37 attempts (3.4 ypc) against MIzzou. Expect the Vols to focus their efforts on shutting down the UGA run game and putting the game into the hands of UGA QB Stetson Bennett.

The Dawgs dominated Auburn early last week and were able to lean on the run game to close things out. I’m interested to see how Bennett handles a game plan specifically designed to put the ball in his hands. Bennett has done nothing to warrant any real doubt heading into this game and UGA should win, but I think this Vols team is pesky and will find a way to hang around in this one. Gimme Rocky Top and the points.

TENNESSEE +12.5 (-110)

 

SOUTH CAROLINA -13.5 (-110) AT VANDERBILT

Moneyline: South Carolina (-570) / Vanderbilt (+385)
Total: Over/Under 41.5

Will Muschamp and the Gamecocks walked into Gainesville last week and battled valiantly but at the end of the day, the talent gap was just wide enough for the Gators to keep their distance and close out a 38-24 win. I expect a similar scenario in Nashville, but this time Carolina will be on the winning side.

South Carolina needs this game almost as much as Muschamp needs this game. Carolina faces a brutal slate down the stretch: vs Auburn, at LSU, vs Texas A&M, at Ole Miss, vs Mizzou, vs Georgia, and at Kentucky. This is not going to be a pretty season in Columbia in terms of the win-loss record, so Muschamp needs to A) win the games he’s expected to win (Vandy is one of the few) and B) show some sort of positive progress on the offensive side of the ball.

QB Collin Hill is not an elite quarterback in the SEC, but the Cocks have not had better play at the quarterback spot since Connor Shaw roamed the field in Garnet and Black. Couple Hill’s competence with the promise of OC Mike Bobo and physical RB Kevin Harris and Muschamp may have a few good selling points for sticking around in 2021, but losing to Vandy might undo that entire scenario.

A loss to the Commodores almost ensure South Carolina will run its record to 0-7 before getting a shot at Mizzou in late November.

Vandy went back to being Vandy a week after showing some sign of life in the opener at Texas A&M.  Freshman QB Ken Seals is struggling through some on-the-job training, but I like that Derek Mason is choosing to invest in the young quarterback in this shortened season. The Dores would’ve struggled anyway, might as well let players develop.

South Carolina has a good chance to roll in this one, but I don’t know if I trust a Muschamp led team to cover two TDs. Cocks on the moneyline.

SOUTH CAROLINA MONEYLINE (-570)

 

ARKANSAS AT AUBURN -13.5 (-105)

Moneyline: Auburn (-570) / Arkansas (+385)
Total: Over/Under Total 47.5

A disappointing trip in between the hedges leaves me with more questions than answers about Auburn. Did the Tigers simply get overwhelmed early and have a bad night or are the Tigers the middle of the road team we saw last weekend?

Sam Pittman and the Hogs ended a 20-game conference losing streak with a huge win in Starkville. A stout defense led by DC Barry Odom may not keep Arkansas in every game, but it looks like the Razorbacks will no longer serve as a push over in the SEC West.

I’m tempted to pick Auburn to cover, but based on both teams’ performances last week, let’s keep it simple and stick to Auburn on the moneyline.

AUBURN MONEYLINE (-570)

 

ALABAMA -24.0 (-110) AT OLE MISS

Moneyline: Alabama (-2000) / Ole Miss (+950)
Total:  Over/Under 70.0

Did Lane Kiffin take the Ole Miss job exclusively to take an annual shot at Nick Saban? Maybe not exclusively, but I like to think it’s at least 90% of the reason he ended up in Oxford.

In two weeks, we’ve seen the Rebels field an explosive attack on the offensive side of the ball, led by Matt Corral while the defense has struggled to be competitive.

Alabama has looked like its typical juggernaut self through two weeks. QB Mac Jones looked fantastic in last week’s demolition over the Aggies. Some bad injury luck set the Crimson Tide back defensively last year, but those returning starters have Bama playing at a higher level on defense this season.

This game was pushed back by an hour and half thanks to Hurricane Delta. A soggy Saturday leading up to kickoff may  slow things down a bit, so I’ll avoid the Total and go with Ole Miss and the points.

OLE MISS +24.0 (-115)

 

MISSISSIPPI STATE AT KENTUCKY -2.0 (-105)

Moneyline: Kentucky (-125) / MIssissippi State (+105)
Total: Over/Under 57.5

Two teams coming off of two heartbreaking losses last week. The Cats fell to Ole Miss in OT and the Bulldogs were shocked at home by cellar dwelling Arkansas.

I was thoroughly impressed with Kentucky QB Terry Wilson last week and now that I know the Cats can keep up with a high scoring offense, I’m inclined to go with Kentucky in this one.

State should bounce back from last week’s performance and play well, but I don’t see this Kentucky team going 0-3.

KENTUCKY -2.0 (-105)

 

 

MISSOURI AT LSU -14.0 (-110)

Moneyline: LSU (-600) / Missouri (+400)
Total: Over/Under 54.0

LSU will travel to Columbia for the first time thanks to a schedule adjustment due to Hurricane Delta. Typically, this would be a huge inconvenience and it would cause some speculation as to whether changing venues at the last minute will be a distraction for the Bayou Bengals, but this is 2020.

In a pandemic year where no plan is sacred enough to cancel or rearrange, LSU won’t flinch. LSU took care of business last week at Vandy and they’ll keep the focus on the field again this week in Coach O’s final tune-up before the “Tigahs” trip to The Swamp. I’ll take LSU to cover in this one.

LSU -14.0 (-110)

 

Season in Review

Overall:  6-8

Week 1 : 3-4

Week 2 : 3-4

 

SOUTH CAROLINA +18 (-110) – CORRECT

The Gators will control this game from start to finish and cruise to a win, but the fightin’ chickens will hang around just enough to cover the spread.

• Carolina presented enough of a challenge on defense to at least slow the Gators offense down a bit. I repeat, Florida scored 38 points and I’m giving the Cocks credit for “slowing down” the Gators offense. Life is good!

MISSOURI +11.5 (-110) – INCORRECT

We’re at least a couple of years away from the Volunteers being a serious threat to Florida or Georgia, but it’s time for Tennessee to rise up above the Mizzou/Kentucky/Carolina  crowd and establish themselves as next in line behind Florida and Georgia in the East. Tennessee keeps the win streak going, but Mizzou keeps it close.

• The Vols controlled this one from start to finish and thoroughly dominated in a way that made that lesser shade of orange look like they might actually belong on the field with the big boys. We’ll find out this week.

TEXAS A&M +18.0 (-110) – INCORRECT

Alabama certainly has the talent to run up the score in this one, however, I expect an improved Aggies squad to show enough fight to cover a huge 18.0 point spread…

• I was feeling prettayyy, prettayyy smart with this pick when A&M stormed back and tied it up at 14 in the second quarter. Bama then reminded us that the Aggies are not ready for prime time in the SEC and made a mockery of my faith in A&M to simply cover 18 points.

Under 61.5 (-110) – INCORRECT

 I don’t trust the Rebels to string together enough drives to cover while simultaneously not trusting the Wildcats to keep their distance enough to cover. The defenses make enough plays to avoid a Florida-Ole Miss style shootout and this one goes under.

• I was convinced the Kentucky defense would hold the Rebs down thanks in part to a strong running game on the offensive side of the ball. Ole Miss showed they will score on everyone this year. Impressed with Kentucky’s ability to match the Rebels in a shootout. Lane Train gets a shot at Saban this week assuming the weather cooperates.

Georgia Moneyline (-250) – CORRECT

I’m willing to overlook a poor opening half by the Dawgs and buy stock in the addition of Daniels. Neither quarterback will put up big numbers against stout defenses, but Daniels gives UGA just enough to pull out a win.

• Bennett did enough to stave off a J.T. Daniels appearance and while the Dawgs did rack up close to 450 yards of offense, only 240 was through the air. No doubt this QB job is Bennett’s to lose, but he will be on a short leash.

Over 69.0 (-110) – INCORRECT

Leach and Costello will make several trips to the end zone, however, the Mississippi State defense will struggle to hold down Franks and the Hogs. Even though it’s a high Total at 69.0, I’ll ride the over bandwagon.

• I thought the Hogs might be feisty in this one and didn’t trust MSU to cover 17.5, but I saw this game being much more explosive on both sides. Something like a 45-31 type of shootout. On top of the shocking upset, Costello throws for three picks and the Razorbacks defense starred in this one. Total came in well under at 35.

LSU -20.5 (-110) – CORRECT

I took the bait and got burned on a couple of large spreads last week-I’ll take the bait again and count on LSU to bounce back in a big way. Tigers ride a strong offense and a good matchup on defense to an easy victory.

• The Tigers needed a get right game and Vandy was the perfect opponent last Saturday night. LSU had Vandy and Mizzou this week to prep for next week’s trip to The Swamp and I expect the Tigers to use both games effectively.

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