I didn’t give the Aggies a shot to cover, yet alone pull off an upset over the mighty Gators last week, but I finally snuck above the .500 mark in Week 3. Let’s keep it going!
LSU AT #10 FLORIDA
PPD
*Betting lines pulled from Bovada on Thursday 10/8
From Demetrius Harvey at SI All Gators:
Due to the ongoing coronavirus outbreak among the Florida football team, which includes 19 players who have tested positive for COVID-19, according to multiple reports, the Gators’ game against the LSU Tigers has been postponed.
The Gators entered the week set to face off against LSU on Oct. 17 at 4:00 p.m. ET., however that game will now be postponed until further notice. The Gators will not be able to play their rival in the SEC West and will have to use this week as a bye week until the team can get a full understanding of the spread of the virus.
#15 AUBURN -3.5 (EVEN) AT SOUTH CAROLINA
Moneyline: Auburn (-160) / South Carolina (+140)
Total: Over/Under 51.5 (-110)
The Tigers spent the last five minutes of their game against Arkansas scrambling to retake the lead. A missed field goal and a fortunate call on a coulda-woulda-shoulda been fumble allowed Auburn to line up and convert on the winning field goal in the final seconds of the game.
Down one w/ seconds left., Auburn’s Bo Nix fumbles the snap then tries to spike it by throwing it behind him.
But the call was ruled intentional grounding rather than a fumble. Auburn then kicked a FG w/ :07 left to win 30-28 #ARKvsAUB pic.twitter.com/f0AD54BriE
— Bad Sports Refs (@BadSportsRefs) October 10, 2020
Sam Pittman knows what he saw…
Here's what Sam Pittman says he saw on the Bo Nix play pic.twitter.com/X4QBQsT6vL
— Kyle Deckelbaum (@KyleDeckelbaum) October 11, 2020
A tight win over the Razorbacks makes Carolina tempting in this spot. The Gamecocks battled Tennessee, stuck with Florida in a game that was closer than the two score final may indicate, and took care of Vanderbilt with ease.
Muschamp could use this win, but I don’t trust Carolina to come through late. Nix and Auburn bounce back and take this one.
Auburn Moneyline
KENTUCKY AT #18 TENNESSEE -6.0 (-110)
Moneyline: Tennessee (-230) / Kentucky (+6.0)
Total: Over/Under 45.5 (-110)
Kentucky smoked Mississippi State this past weekend thanks to an imposing defense which snagged six picks. The Bulldogs only managed 20 yards rushing on 14 attempts while picking up 275 yards on 70 passes. Can the Wildcats also clamp down on a Tennessee running game which posted a total of -1 on the stat sheet under rushing yards last week against Georgia?
A couple of turnovers from the quarterback position changed the Tide of the Volunteers’ upset bid early in the second half last week. If Pruitt can lean on the running game and not ask too much of Jarrett Guarantano, Tennessee should bounce back. Expect a heavy dose of RB Eric Gray and Ty Chandler in this one as the Vols fight off a scrappy Kentucky team in the second half.
OLE MISS -1.5 (-115) AT ARKANSAS
Moneyline: Ole Miss (-120) / Arkansas (EVEN)
Total: Over/Under 75.0 (-110)
Two of the best early season stories in the league clash in this Week 4 SEC West matchup. At one point last Saturday night, Sam Pittman’s Hogs held a one-point lead with under five minutes to go at Auburn and Lane Kiffin’s Rebels attempted an onside kick while tied at 42 against Alabama. Both of these hires are looking fantastic so far.
Pittman won me over early on. Scooping up SEC rejects Barry Odom and Feleipe Franks has already paid dividends. The Hogs defense is playing some good ball and should make Arkansas a tough out on most weeks, but I worry about the Razorbacks’ offense keeping up if this game turns into a track meet.
Luckily for Franks and the Hogs, an elite Ole Miss offense is paired with a defense that is currently allowing 641.3 yards per game. I know Total Yards is a flawed stat, but the eye test happens to backup the fact that Ole Miss simply has not shown the ability to stop anyone on defense this season. I don’t see that changing this weekend. However, the Rebs will force Franks into a few mistakes and those turnovers will make up the difference in the game. I’ll take Ole Miss to cover.
Ole Miss -1.5 (-115)
#11 TEXAS A&M -5.0 (-105) AT MISSISSIPPI STATE
Moneyline: Texas A&M (-200) / Mississippi State (+170)
Total: Over/Under 54.5
Has there been a quicker fall from grace in the history of the SEC than that of Mississippi State QB K.J. Costello?
His opening day performance will make a great trivia question about a decade from now.
The grad transfer from Stanford lit up Death Valley on opening week, but has since logged a near even split points/interception ratio (14/9) as the leader of Mike Leach’s vaunted Air Raid attack. Leach may replace Costello with freshman QB WIll Rogers.
From Hannah Underwood of the Dallas Morning News:
After Mississippi State senior quarterback K.J. Costello threw his third interception in the third quarter against Kentucky, Leach replaced him with freshman Will Rogers. Costello would come back in the game briefly but quickly threw a fourth interception, one that was returned for a touchdown, and returned to the bench.
If you want to know what it’s been like inside of the Mississippi State locker room this past week, here’s a taste:
Mississippi State will continue to ride a roller coaster this season, just don’t expect too many more wins along with way. Gimme the Aggies to cover.
Texas A&M -5.0 (-105)
#3 GEORGIA AT #2 ALABAMA -4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Alabama (-175) / Georgia (+155)
Total: Over/Under 57
A stifling defense meets a big-time offense.
Georgia has yet to face what they’ll see on offense in Tuscaloosa. QB Mac Jones has had no issues replacing Tua, RB Najee Harris has racked up 10 touchdowns in three games, while WRs Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith keep defenses honest on the outside.
The Dawgs have been on fire since taking a half to find their footing against Arkansas while Bama survived the chaos of Kiffin by beating their ex-OC at his own game.
I underestimated the red flags Ole Miss exposed in the Gators defense in week one, so I’ll take that lesson to heart and worry a bit about this Crimson Tide defense after an atrocious performance in Oxford. Alabama gave up 647 yards on the night against a relatively balanced attack which gashed the Tide for 268 yards on the ground to go with 379 through the air.
To add to their problems, the Tide with be without a fella by the name of Nick Saban after the living legend tested positive for COVID-19 this week, along with Bama A.D. Greg Byrne (best wishes to both on a speedy recovery). The last time the Tide took the field without Saban, interim head coach Joe Kines (filling in with an all-time halftime interview) and Bama lost in the Independence Bowl to Oklahoma State.
Between the defensive issues and the lack of Saban, I’m worried about Bama in this one. We’ve spent the better part of the last decade being conditioned to not doubt the Tide, but…I can’t believe I’m doing this…Stetson Bennett has shown enough in two and half games to give me the confidence to ride a rock solid UGA defense to at least a cover in this one. I’m almost tempted to pick the Dawgs outright, but A) I don’t want to (I will be rooting for Bama) and B) I have an uneasy feeling in my gut going against the Tide. Oh well…I’ll take the Dawgs to cover.
Season in Review
Overall: 10-11 (47.6%)
Week 1: 3-4
Week 2: 3-4
Week 3: 4-3
FLORIDA -7.0 (EVEN) – Incorrect
Expect Trask and the offense to continue to have their way while the defense finds a way to contribute this week. The Gators will score early and often. Florida wins big.
TENNESSEE +12.5 (-110) – Incorrect
Bennett has done nothing to warrant any real doubt heading into this game and UGA should win, but I think this Vols team is pesky and will find a way to hang around in this one.
SOUTH CAROLINA MONEYLINE (-570) – Correct
South Carolina has a good chance to roll in this one, but I don’t know if I trust a Muschamp led team to cover two TDs. Cocks on the moneyline.
AUBURN MONEYLINE (-570) – Correct
I’m tempted to pick Auburn to cover, but based on both teams’ performances last week, let’s keep it simple and stick to Auburn on the moneyline.
OLE MISS +24.0 (-115) – Correct
In two weeks, we’ve seen the Rebels field an explosive attack on the offensive side of the ball, led by Matt Corral while the defense has struggled to be competitive.
KENTUCKY -2.0 (-105) – Correct
State should bounce back from last week’s performance and play well, but I don’t see this Kentucky team going 0-3.
LSU -14.0 (-110) – Incorrect
In a pandemic year where no plan is sacred enough to cancel or rearrange, LSU won’t flinch. LSU took care of business last week at Vandy and they’ll keep the focus on the field again this week in Coach O’s final tune-up before the “Tigahs” trip to The Swamp. I’ll take LSU to cover in this one.
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