*Betting lines pulled from Bovada on Friday 10/23.
Tough weekend last weekend. College football is proving to be ridiculously tough to predict in a ridiculously tough to predict year. Plunging ahead!
Thanks to some shuffling of the schedules by the league, there are only four games this weekend. Four SEC games and, yet, only one ranked team will be taking the field. For reference, the ACC has six ranked teams playing this weekend. Strange times.
Quick update from UF Athletic Director Scott Stricklin on the state of the Gators. Best wishes on a speedy recovery!
After previously sharing that members of Florida Football tested positive for COVID-19, University of Florida Athletic Director Scott Stricklin has recorded an update for Gator Nation. You can hear in the video above updates on topics such as team travel, how the program is evaluating safety and healthy protocols, and the continued guidance from UF Health, Campus Leadership, and the SEC Medical Task Force.
Not only have the Gators Sports Health Staff continued telehealth appointments with the players and staff affected, but our Nutrition Staff has been delivering food to our student-athletes. Our Academic Advising Unit has also been virtually assisting our student-athletes during this time.
And most importantly, before the student-athletes who were affected return, they will complete a full cardiac evaluation. They will also have a complete medical evaluation before returning to activity.
To hear Scott’s full video statement, please click play on the video message above. You may also click here to view.
We truly appreciate your continued support and patience during this time. Thanks and Go Gators!
AUBURN -3.5 (-110) AT OLE MISS
Moneyline: Auburn (-170) / Ole Miss (+150)
Total: Over/Under 71.5 (-110)
Has Auburn done anything to deserve to be a 3.5 point favorite against the Rebels or is this spread more of a reflection of the disappointment surrounding Ole Miss’ performance at Arkansas last weekend?
The world is not ready to admit that Arkansas may have a decent team this season, so we’ll fall back into our comfort zone for this type of matchup. The Tigers are getting nothing more than a benefit of the doubt from Vegas.
Ole Miss did put a stinker on the field last week, but it took an atrocious seven turnover performance to slow this Rebels offense down. Auburn may do a better job with QB Matt Corral than Florida, Kentucky, and Bama managed to do, but there’s little chance the Tigers rip seven turnovers out of the hands of Ole Miss.
Prepare for an offensive explosion in this one. The Total is set at 71.5, but I see these two offenses combining for over 1,000 yards in a track meet.
Over 71.5 (-110)
#2 ALABAMA -22.5 (-110) AT TENNESSEE
Moneyline: Alabama (-2000) / Tennessee (+950)
Total: Over/Under 66.0 (-110)
The Third Saturday in October rivalry is taking place on the Fourth Saturday in October…close enough for this year.
I was among those who found Tennessee’s start to the season impressive enough to give them a little credit.
They disappointed against Georgia and flat out laid an egg against Kentucky last week.
Since the third quarter at Georgia, the Tennessee offense has been an abject disaster. I’m going to continue to call for it until I see it, but the Volunteers need to stubbornly stick to the ground game in this one. I don’t care if Bama gets up 21-0 early. The quarterbacks in Knoxville are not going to carry this team and the Vols need to lean into their strength. They abandoned the run game against Georgia. Don’t make the same mistake against Bama.
The Tide roll in after doing to drumming UGA in the second half in an eerily similar script which Georgia followed to a “T” against Tennessee one week earlier.
Alabama QB Mac Jones may be the closest thing college football we’ll see to a Joe Burrow-like jump in 2020. He continues to rack up impressive numbers and, if he’s not your Heisman front-runner yet, he definitely belongs in the conversation. RB Najee Harris may not be human. He’s a transformer of the best pieces of all of Saban’s Alabama running backs. Dude can do it all and may end up being the one to dash Mac’s Heisman hopes at the end of the day. Out wide, Devonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle, made a stout UGA defense look silly at times. This offense is scary.
Bama can put up any number it wants on Saturday night, but I worry about Saban and large spreads. We saw the Tide allow Mizzou to cover with a score late in Week 1 and I’m concerned we may see a similar situation here. Bama gets out to an early lead, puts in the backups and coasts home. They should cover, but I’m going to go with the Tide on the moneyline on the off-chance they allow a late cover.
Alabama Moneyline (-2000)
KENTUCKY -4.5 (-110) AT MISSOURI
Moneyline: Kentucky (-210) / Missouri (+175)
Total: Over/Under 47 (-105)
The Tigers welcome a 2-2 Kentucky team whose play ranges from beating anyone in the SEC to losing to anyone in the SEC.
Missouri should come into this one with all kinds of confidence after a shocking upset and 45-point outburst against LSU, but how’s that resume builder playing out in Starkville?
I’m happy for Eli Drinkwitz and his staff in Columbia. I expected this to be a long year for the Tigers and to pull off a win against one of the big dogs in the SEC (even if the dogs’ bark is rebuilding to match its bite) is a heck of an accomplishment just three games into a tenure that opened with Alabama, Tennessee and LSU.
Last time these two programs squared off in Columbia, it was a low-scoring dog-fight and the Wildcats scored with no time on the clock to secure a one-point win.
The LSU win proved Drinkwitz and the Tigers will not be a total pushover this season and, while I still think Kentucky will get the win, I’ll approach with some caution and pick Kentucky on the moneyline.
Kentucky Moneyline (-210)
SOUTH CAROLINA AT LSU -6.0 (-110)
Moneyline: LSU (-220) / South Carolina (+180)
Total: Over/Under 55 (-110)
Muschamp and the Cocks notched a nice victory last weekend in front of the home crowd. In a normal year, a trip to Death Valley would be something to consider, but a limited crowd capacity and a limited Tigers defense evens things out a bit.
Carolina has been a tough out this season and could very well pull an upset. I said it last week and I’ll say it again, I don’t trust ’em enough to pick ’em.
LSU scores a ton of points and gives up a ton of points. South Carolina will slow Brennan and the Tigers offense more effectively than Mizzou, but they’ll give up enough for an easy cover on the Over.
Over 55 (-110)
Season in Review
Overall: 11-15 (42.3%)
Week 1: 3-4
Week 2: 3-4
Week 3: 4-3
Week 4: 1-4
.
Auburn Moneyline – Incorrect
Muschamp could use this win, but I don’t trust Carolina to come through late. Nix and Auburn bounce back and take this one.
Still don’t trust Carolina – nice October surprise by the Cocks. Played well across the board and if this team can play like they did against Auburn on a consistent basis, they could pull off another upset or two this season.
Tennessee -6.0 (-110) – Incorrect
A couple of turnovers from the quarterback position changed the tide of the Volunteers’ upset bid early in the second half last week. If Pruitt can lean on the running game and not ask too much of Jarrett Guarantano, Tennessee should bounce back.
A couple of turnovers from the quarterback position cause the Vols to spiral out of control in this one too. Embrace the run, Tennessee!
Ole Miss -1.5 (-115) – Incorrect
However, the Rebs will force Franks into a few mistakes and those turnovers will make up the difference in the game.
I was watching the this exact scenario come close to playing out in the third quarter, but Corral and the Rebs were far more generous than Franks and the Hogs. Nice win by Arkansas!
Texas A&M -5.0 (-105) – Correct
Mississippi State will continue to ride a roller coaster this season, just don’t expect too many more wins along with way. Gimme the Aggies to cover.
A week after ruining my day, Jimbo and the Aggies spare me an oh-fer Saturday and covered easily. Though A&M looked far less impressive than they did against UF.
GEORGIA +4.5 (-110)
Between the defensive issues and the lack of Saban, I’m worried about Bama in this one. We’ve spent the better part of the last decade being conditioned to not doubt the Tide, but…I can’t believe I’m doing this…Stetson Bennett has shown enough in two and half games to give me the confidence to ride a rock solid UGA defense to at least a cover in this one. I’m almost tempted to pick the Dawgs outright, but A) I don’t want to (I will be rooting for Bama) and B) I have an uneasy feeling in my gut going against the Tide. Oh well…I’ll take the Dawgs to cover.
Was I crazy for thinking Saban wouldn’t beat COVID in 48 hours and join Bama on the sideline? Dawgs came to play in this one and were frisky in the first half, but the Tide rolled in the second half.
This article brought to you by Manscaped
I’m happy to announce that Manscaped is doing a test sponsorship of Read and Reaction! One of the things I’ve really tried to do is not put any of the writing I do here behind a pay wall. I can only do that when I have sponsors who my readers support.
I really like these products. I get nosebleeds when I use typical nose-hair trimmers, but haven’t gotten any with the weedwhacker.
Get 20% off any of the Manscaped products by going to www.manscaped.com/will.
Thanks for your support.
