It’s no secret that the Gators defense has struggled in 2020 thus far. No matter what ranking you look at against FBS opponents, things are pretty ugly.
- 33.3 points per game (18.3 last year)
- 6.1 yards per play (4.8 last year)
- 8.6 yards per pass attempt (6.9 last year)
- 4.1 yards per rush attempt (3.4 last year)
*Ed note: Originally these statistics were wrong. Copy/Paste failed, as did my internal editing process.
Whenever that happens – everything is worse across the board – it isn’t just one player or even one coach. It’s a complete system breakdown.
But the Gators don’t have time to fix the system. They have to go with what they’ve got, which means putting players in positions to succeed based on what they do well. And especially since there isn’t any practice time while they’re off during the COVID-19 outbreak, putting players in a position to succeed is even more critical.
So what changes would I recommend?
Statistics
There is certainly a lot that is wrong. But perhaps it is informative to look at what is most wrong.
And if we’re going to do that, we have to look at the passing game.
While the Gators are fiving up 0.7 yards per play more on the ground, they are giving up a whopping 1.3 additional yards per pass this year. That’s even worse if you consider that they held South Carolina to 4.5 yards per attempt. That means that Texas A&M (9.4 yards per attempt) and Ole Miss (13.4 yards per attempt) absolutely dominated the Gators pass defense.
When that happens, the first place many fans look is the secondary. And to be sure, the Gators have had their fair share of problems on the back end of the defense. But I don’t think that’s the place to start.
Last season, Gators defensive backs had 43 pass break-ups (11% of total pass attempts. However, the Gators had 15 interceptions (3.8%) and 49 sacks (12.6%) as well.
This season, the Gators have 16 pass break-ups (13.8% of total pass attempts), but only have 1 intereception (0.9%) and 8 sacks (6.9%). I think what this suggests is that the defensive backs are playing close to the level we should expect based on last year’s results and the departure of C.J. Henderson.
But what I think it also suggests is that the Gators defensive line isn’t getting enough pressure to help the defensive backs at all.
Film
That’s what you see when you look at the film. And while obviously this has been bad news thus far, I do think there are some things that the Gators can do to stop the bleeding.
This play got plenty of attention against Texas A&M, and for good reason. It doesn’t appear to be played correctly by the defensive backs.
But notice Jeremiah Moon (#7, highlighted). Todd Grantham lined him up on the inside against a guard one-on-one and he gets zero pressure.
Could Moon have prevented the completion? That ball got out of there awfully fast. But there is plenty of evidence that Kellen Mond becomes inaccurate when he gets pressured and so pushing back the guard into Mond’s face would have made it a lot more difficult.
I don’t like singling out a particular player – particularly as bad as the defense has played as a whole – but Moon is the place where I would make a change if I were Todd Grantham. And it’s not just one play. It’s a whole collection of plays.
You might be able to deal with the lack of pass rushing statistics if Moon was a stalwart against the run, but he’s inconsistent there too.
Here’s an example of Moon excelling against the run. On this play, he drives the tight end back, forcing the running back to cut back inside. But not only does he force him to cut back, he drives through the blocker to make the tackle.
But that was against a tight end. Here, Moon gets driven back nearly to the first down marker and can’t get off the block by the South Carolina offensive lineman. Donovan Stiner gets absolutely blasted by the South Carolina running back, but part of the reason that the back had such a head of steam was that he was that nobody touched him or even made him cut before he met the safety.
So if you’re inconsistent against the run, you need to be an excellent pass rusher to offset that deficit. That doesn’t appear to be the case with Moon.
On this play against South Carolina, Moon is one-on-one against the left tackle. He gets stoned by the left tackle and doesn’t impact the play at all. Notice that Brenton Cox (#1) gets chipped by the running back to help the right tackle, which is acknowledgment that South Carolina is more concerned with him as a pass rusher.
Here’s another example, where Florida brings a blitz to Moon’s side. Moon gets handled by the left guard, allowing the tackle to slide out to pick up the blitzing linebacker.
Contrast this to a similar play call later in the game.
On this play, Moon drops into coverage. Defensive end Brenton Cox (#1) is able to occupy both the left guard and the left tackle, which allows the blitzing linebacker (Ventrell Miller, #51) to force Mond into a poor throw.
Cox clearly brings something to the pass rush arsenal that Moon just doesn’t provide. And since Florida is having trouble getting to the QB, I think we need to see more of Cox at the Buck and Zach Carter at defensive end. We’ve seen that alignment work already.
On this play, Cox (#1) is standing up and taking on the right tackle. Carter (#17) has his hand on the ground and is playing defensive end. Moon is inside at defensive tackle, though he’s still standing up. Carter drives the tackle back into Gamecocks QB Collin Hill, causing him to fall down. But even if Carter hadn’t won his battle, Cox puts a sweet spin move on the right tackle and would have gotten there too.
On this play, I think Moon (highlighted) is running a stunt. But if so, it is the laziest stunt I’ve ever seen. The stunt actually worked. Moon was one-on-one with the offensive guard. Zach Carter (#17) gets chipped by the running back. Brenton Cox (#1) can’t beat the right tackle. But the whole point of this call is to get Moon in a situation where he can win and get in the QB’s face and he just wasn’t going full-tilt.
Maybe Moon is hurt. Maybe he just isn’t used to being the primary pass rusher. I don’t know what it is, but Florida clearly needs more from its pass rush.
Takeaway
This actually isn’t a call to bench Moon, at least not completely. The play I showed where he drove the tight end back into the backfield is indicative that he has the ability to play inside more than he has thus far. And he didn’t even play against Ole Miss, and it’s not as if Florida was any better in that one.
But he just isn’t the pass rushing specialist that Florida desperately needs right now.
Thus far in 2020, Moon has zero tackles for loss and zero sacks. Last season, he had 6.5 tackles for loss and 3.0 sacks, but that was with a defensive line that included Jabari Zuniga and Jonathan Greenard. Also, against Georgia, he had zero TFL or sacks. Against LSU, same thing. Same against Auburn.
Against the good or elite teams that Florida played last year, Moon just didn’t make much of a difference. You can’t say the same for Carter, who had a TFL against Georgia and a sack against Auburn.
Florida has Brenton Cox playing out of position at defensive end instead of Buck. Florida has Zach Carter playing defensive tackle instead of defensive end. My suggestion would be to move Carter out to defensive end, Cox to Buck and Moon to defensive tackle.
That probably makes him a third-down player, as you wouldn’t want someone only 250 pounds in there on clear running plays. Or perhaps you put him in a position where he’s playing more true linebacker, as Grantham had him dropping into coverage a lot during the game against Texas A&M.
And this isn’t a panacea. Cox and Carter are not Zuniga and Greenard. Kyree Campbell may allow Carter to move outside, but I can’t imagine he’s going to completely shore everything up. And the defensive backs are going to have to hold up better, including playing tighter to the line of scrimmage on third downs.
But if you ask me what Todd Grantham’s defenses are known for, it is getting pressure on the QB and forcing turnovers. The Gators have three turnovers in three games and only eight sacks.
Until that changes, the defense is going to continue to get gashed.