Florida gets back into action this weekend against Missouri.
How many Gators will be missing, and how healthy those who are coming off of COVID-19 diagnoses are complete unknowns. If one particular position group has been particularly hard hit, it could really open up some deficiencies, especially on a defense that has struggled.
Still, the cancellation of Wisconsin’s game this week does prove how wise the SEC was in building in some margin for error in the season. Being able to shift schedules so that Florida plays Missouri Saturday night and LSU on December 12 means that the SEC is still “on schedule” to meet the expectations of the Playoff Selection Committee.
As for the game, I have no idea.
The Tigers started the year 0-2, losing first to Alabama (understandable) and then getting pounded by Tennessee (um…not). Since then, they have a shootout win over LSU (is that impressive?) and a 10-point win over Kentucky.
But the Wildcats, despite being behind the entire second half, only threw the ball 14 times. Missouri is certainly going to see more through the air against the Gators.
I tend to think the Kentucky game is the anomaly. As bad as the Gators defense has been against the pass (8.6 yards per attempt), Missouri has been just as bad (8.4 yards per attempt). But if you subtract Kentucky’s play, that number balloons to 9.0 yards per attempt.
Florida QB Kyle Trask has averaged 9.7 yards per attempt this year, with 14 TD and 1 INT. That’s a bad sign for Missouri.
However, the Tigers two-game win streak coincides with the elevation of QB Connor Bazelak to starter. Bazelak has completed 71 percent of his throws for 9.0 yards per attempt. He also has run for 66 yards on 27 carries. That’s not a true dual-threat QB, but does indicate he can extend plays and isn’t going to just take sacks like his predecessor Shawn Robinson (11 carries for -39 yards).
So the key question in this one is whether Bazelak is for real. I tend to think the answer is probably no.
The only high school stats I can find on Bazelak have him at 50 percent completions on 134 attempts. The one game available from his senior season has him at 14-31. He was otherworldly against LSU (85.3%) and good against Kentucky (70%), but was just average against Tennessee (62%) and pedestrian against Bama (50%).
In his four games, his QB rating is 90.8, 139.6, 224.4 and 126.3. I think it’s fair to expect him to put up a QB rating around 130-140. Maybe if you penalize the Gators defense significantly, he might put up a QB rating of 160 (Mond was at 180.8).
That’s a really good day for a QB.
But then I take a look at the other side and Kyle Trask. Trask has put up QB Ratings of 201.8, 188.7 and 195.0 in 2020. He has yet to have a game where he’s completed less than 70 percent of his passes.
There’s a perception that Missouri has the better running game, but the Tigers have only averaged 3.6 yards per attempt thus far in 2020. Florida has been markedly better, averaging 4.8 yards per attempt.
So if Missouri can’t beat the Gators running the ball, then it comes down to two QBs and two defenses that are terrible against the pass.
The Gators have the better QB.
Florida (-13) wins, 41-27.
Predictions this season: 2-1 straight-up, 1-2 against the spread
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Michael
Until the gators defense shows they can willingly Form tackle Instead of diving at ankles or throwing a shoulder, grantham can put up a defense that can get off the field in 3 rd down I don’t favor the gators in any game but vandy . Through 3 games this is the worst gator defense I’ve seen in 60 years . They are soft and play with zero pride .
Michael
The gator secondary is poorly coached. They give way to much cushion ,won’t tackle like men and have no idea where the ball is in the air . They NEVER turn their heads to find the ball .
Michael
Mullen complaining about the ncaa giving Tuesday off to vote is another national embarrassment
Spike
Did you not understand the context of his answer to the question he was asked? He stated he wanted to take the entire team together- those who want to vote – and all go vote at the same time. However, he complained that the NCAA is not allowing ANY team activities on election day. His idea to have the entire team go vote is being considered a team activity so would be in violation of the ncaa. He was complaining that the ncaa in all their wisdom, to encourage players to vote is not allowing practices that day which is a team activity. They are also not allowing Dan to take the entire team to vote as it is considered a team activity and that irked Dan.
Ian
A) Michael is hating all over the place this morning;
B) I think you have thoroughly demonstrated the correlation between high school completion percentage and knowing where to throw the ball. In this particular case, though, I think that an allowance should be made for the fact that Bazelak played in a wishbone system in HS, which reduces completion percentage. Tommie Frazier, commanding the machine that was the 95 ‘Huskers, only completed 55% of his passes. Justin Thomas, who I think was P. Johnson’s best QB at Georgia Tech, never broke 55%, either. The reads he (Bazelak) was asked to make in HS were generally not throws. We will see if his completion percentage returns to the mean, but I could see how an option quarter back could confound that normally very strong correlation.
Ian
Following up on my previous comment, I looked up Troy Aikman’s completion percentage at Oklahoma and then at UCLA. Given, the comparison is dated, but I don’t think anyone would argue that Aikman was not a heady football player or bad at reading defenses (and he was the only guy I could think to look at for a comparison). His completion percentage Jumped from 57% his sophomore year at Oklahoma (he was 6 of 20 as a freshman) to 65% his junior year at UCLA.
Will Miles
Yeah, it’s not a hard-and-fast rule, more of a guideline. You can say the same thing about Nick Fitzgerald prior to coming to Miss St. I think he was at like 45% in HS. I started out the article by saying I didn’t know and that’s true. Is his performance against LSU a mirage? Does it matter since Florida made Kellen Mond look like an All-Pro?
The only thing I hang my hat on is he’s unlikely to be better than he’s been thus far as other teams get some film on him. And even as good as Bazelak has been, he hasn’t been as good as Trask. That, and everybody keeps talking about Mizzou’s run game beating up the Gators, but statistically they’re not all that good on the ground.