In his second season at Alabama in 2008, Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide fell to Urban Meyer’s eventual National Champion Gators 31-20 in the SEC Championship Game.
That Tide team had the signs of an up-and-coming squad, with Mark Ingram as its second leading rusher and Julio Jones already proving to be a star. But there was a huge mismatch in that game: John Parker Wilson vs. Tim Tebow.
Fast forward to 2009 and Ingram had taken over as the lead back, Trent Richardson was now the back-up, and a receiving corps of Jones, Marquis Maze and Colin Peek at tight end made for a much more formidable matchup. Add to that the Gators loss of Percy Harvin, the emergence of Greg McElroy at QB, and an Alabama defense that harassed Tebow all game long, and that Bama team was able to defeat the undefeated Gators in the 2009 SEC Championship Game on the way to a championship of its own.
In his second season at Florida in 2019, Dan Mullen’s Gators fell to the eventual SEC East champion Georgia Bulldogs 24-17.
That Gators team had starter Kyle Trask at QB making his sixth career start. Conversely, Georgia had 3-year starter Jake Fromm behind center. When the game was in Trask’s hands, the Gators offense was stagnant. The only touchdowns came on the last two drives of the game for Florida, the first taking nearly four minutes and the second 17-play drive running 6:50 off the clock.
After the first Gators touchdown, Fromm hit Lawrence Cager for a 52-yard dagger that ended the game.
I don’t bring this up to bring up painful memories. I bring it up because Saban’s 2009 team absolutely used that 2008 loss to drive them all offseason. He didn’t let anybody forget that it was Florida who eliminated them. And that team came into the game against Florida with something to prove.
So this is Dan Mullen’s chance to prove that he is at that level. Through the loss to Texas A&M and the controversies – whether real or imagined – Mullen and his team should have had their sights on one team: Georgia.
Gators fans have certainly had this game circled, pretty much since the two teams walked off the field in 2019. Mullen has done a lot to ingratiate himself to the Gator faithful, but you don’t truly become a legend until you start winning championships. And in today’s SEC, you don’t win championships from the eastern division unless you can beat Georgia.
Mullen is 0-2 thus far. This is his chance to turn the tide, much like Saban did in 2009. The question is, can he do it?
Offense
Any discussion of the Gators has to start with its offense.
Even after a slow start versus Missouri, the Gators offense managed to put up 41 points against the Tigers. And the offense has been near-unstoppable at times.
And it isn’t just red zone efficiency or some other fluky kind of stat that is propping up the Gators offense. They are ranked eighth overall in yards per play at 7.4, just 0.4 yards per play behind number one Alabama.
That’s a significant step-up from the 2019 team, that only averaged 6.2 yards per play. That’s the difference between a team – assuming 70 plays per game – that should average 32 points per game versus one that should average 42 points per game based on my calculations (note: Florida averaged 33.2 last year and is right on at 42.0 this year).
When we look at why that is, it’s not hard to pinpoint the reason: Kyle Trask.
I wrote extensively about the things that Trask is doing better this season last week, but perhaps the easiest way to measure his success is that last season he averaged 8.3 yards per attempt and this season he’s averaging 9.6.
The Florida running game hasn’t been anything special, but Trask – in coordination with Kadarius Toney and Kyle Pitts – has kept the offense humming all season.
My stat – Yards above Replacement (YAR) – shows just how effective Trask has been. For frame of reference, zero is average QB play (Feleipe Franks, 2018), 0.5 is a game manager (Kellen Mond, 2019), 1.0 is a very good QB (Jake Fromm, 2018) and 1.8-2.0 is typically the threshold where a QB on a winning team is getting significant Heisman Trophy hype.
Individual game and overall YAR for Kyle Trask in 2020. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
Well, Trask is starting to get some Heisman hype, and he’s worth of it based on YAR.
But one thing I think is worth mentioning is not just that Trask is putting up really good numbers, but that he’s so consistent in every performance. This isn’t new for Trask, as while his overall numbers were less eye-popping last season, they were consistent from game-to-game.
The takeaway is that Gators fans should expect a performance from Trask every week that approaches Heisman-level. Obviously, Georgia’s defense is a different animal than Ole Miss, but I still think Trask is going to average around 9.0 yards per throw.
If we go to the other side, Georgia has struggled to get going on offense this year.
It started out in the Arkansas game, where Stetson Bennett had to come in in relief for Diwun Mathis after a lackluster first half. Kirby Smart keeps insisting that Bennett gives Georgia the best opportunity to win – and maybe he’s right – but the statistics indicate that his decision to die on that hill may cause him to die.
Individual game and overall YAR for Stetson Bennett in 2020. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
If we look at the same YAR stat, what we see is that Bennett has been wildly inconsistent, but overall has been just slightly above average. That puts him firmly in the game manager camp.
And while his YAR against Kentucky looks elite, that’s partly because he hit two passes – a 46-yarder to running back James Cook and a 33-yarder to tight end Darnell Washington – out of his 13 throws, which skewed his yards per attempt up.
The throw to Washington set up the TD that put Georgia up 14-3 and effectively sealed the game, but Bennett’s two interceptions (which YAR does not account for), and the fact that Georgia offensive coordinator Todd Monken just decided to take the ball out of Bennett’s hands skew that result.
The net effect is that a Georgia offense that wasn’t elite last season (5.8 yards per play) is worse this season (5.4). Based on historical comparisons to yards per play, the Georgia offense has actually outperformed what it should have scored (29.2 vs. 26.0 predicted).
Bennett has really struggled the past two games, throwing five interceptions. Some of that is because he is short with a three-quarters delivery and has had balls tipped and intercepted. But some of that is on him too.
On this play, Bennett locks on to his running back (#6, Kenny McIntosh) against the linebacker. But he completely misses that linebacker Christian Harris (#8) drops into zone coverage and nobody covers tight end Tre’ McKitty (#87) in the flat.
Bennett has to put a little bit extra on the throw to try and fit it in the McIntosh and so it comes out humming and low, perfect for Alabama to tip. Yes, he’s unlucky that this turned into an INT, but it’s the wrong read.
It wasn’t the only time either.
On this throw, Alabama drops into a zone at the snap on third-and-10. Georgia is in field goal range and down three points. The right play is to drop the ball off to McKitty running wide open and hope he can get the first down. Instead, Bennett tries to fit the ball into a tight space to Jermaine Burton and it turns into an interception.
You can talk all you want about Georgia’s rushing game being better than Florida’s (true) and how the team that runs the ball more effectively typically wins this game (also true). But Florida has the better QB and it’s not close.
Advantage: Florida
Defense
It’s no secret that Florida’s defense has struggled this season.
The Gators have surrendered 29.2 points per game this season on 5.6 yards per play. Compare that to last season when the Gators gave up 4.8 yards per play and only 15.5 points per game.
Obviously, the Gators defense looked much improved against Missouri – even shorthanded – and are going to look to build on that against Georgia.
The big issue for the Gators defense (other than the Missouri game) has been a complete inability to get off the field on third down, allowing conversions on 49.2 percent of opportunities. But when looking at that statistic, I did find something that was interesting.
Texas A&M is the number one team when it comes to third-down conversions. Ole Miss is ranked 10th. Now, obviously Florida has something to do with that, but it turns out that those two teams are actually pretty good at converting third downs. Florida gave up 21 of 29 conversions against those two.
But Missouri is ranked 49th in third-down conversions and South Carolina is ranked 55th. Perhaps not coincidently, Florida only surrendered 9 of 32 conversions to those two and forced 11 punts (compared to 4 vs. A&M and Ole Miss).
So where does Georgia sit? The Bulldogs rank 26th in third-down conversion, essentially equidistant from South Carolina and Ole Miss. So while I do expect the Gators to struggle a bit more on third down than they did against the Gamecocks, I do not expect a repeat of the A&M game.
On the Georgia side of the ball, Kirby Smart again has another excellent defense. I would argue, however, that this defense is not as good as last year’s.
That defense ranked second in the country at 4.1 yards per play. This season’s edition ranks eighth at 4.3 yards per play but is now missing some key performers coming into the game against the Gators.
The biggest loss for the Bulldogs is safety Richard LeCounte.
LeCounte is obviously a big loss because of his three interceptions and 26 tackles, as well as his leadership being the player who makes the calls for the defense. But the biggest thing this eliminates from Georgia is that LeCounte was a potential answer for Kyle Pitts.
This play set the tone for last year’s game. It was fourth-and-inches and Florida had an opportunity to open the game with some points. The Gators got exactly what they wanted: a one-on-one matchup with Kyle Pitts (#84) on a safety. Except that LeCounte (#2) won the battle.
Now, Pitts is better this year. And I suspect that Florida would try to run the ball in this situation – perhaps with Emory Jones or Anthony Richardson – if given the opportunity this year. But the fact remains that even if he gave up a few catches to Pitts, LeCounte’s ability to single him up left Georgia the ability to double-team somewhere else. And that’s important because I’m not sure there’s anybody in the country who can single-cover Kadarius Toney.
The losses of defensive tackles Julian Rochester and potentially Jordan Davis (day-to-day) are potentially big deals as well. While Davis and Rochester haven’t stuffed the stat sheet thus far in 2020, push up the middle makes QBs uncomfortable and frees up linebackers to make plays, both against the run and the pass.
On this play, Davis (#99) and Devonte Wyatt (#95) get early penetration while occupying multiple offensive linemen. That frees up Azeez Ojulari (#13) to beat his man one-on-one and make the tackle.
And if you’re talking about where Florida should be concerned, you start with Ojulari.
The outside linebacker/edge rusher has 6.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks. It will be interesting to see if he’s able to roam quite as free as earlier in the year when Davis and Rochester are out. Obviously, Wyatt is still a good player and Kirby Smart is going to have reinforcements to put in the game.
But with the temperature in the high-70s and rain/humidity expected, it may be that Florida has an opportunity to tire out the Bulldogs up-front.
Still, there’s no comparison when you look at these two units. Florida fans hope their defense continues to show improvement coming off a good performance against Missouri. Georgia fans are relying on their defense to carry their team to victory.
Advantage: Georgia
Takeaway
I’ve made it pretty clear that I think Dan Mullen is a better in-game coach than Kirby Smart. I also have made it clear that Mullen does more with the talent he has than Smart does.
But none of that matters when the teams come together if Smart has significantly more talent than Mullen. But that’s not necessarily the case this year.
Kearis Jackson (24 catches, 348 yards) is an excellent player. But is he better than Kyle Pitts or Kadarius Toney?
Georgia definitely has a better reputation on defense, but missing Davis, Rochester, potentially linebacker Quay Walker and especially LeCounte means they’re going to need an entire layer of the second team to step up against one of the best offenses in the country.
And at the QB position – where Georgia has had the advantage the past two seasons with Jake Fromm – the Gators now have a significant advantage over the Bulldogs.
That means Georgia is going to have to play keep-away from the Gators. They’re going to do that with third down conversions and an effective running game.
I compared the yards per play given up by Georgia’s defense against each opponent versus those opponents’ season total. What I found was that Georgia gives up an average of 1.1 yards per play less than those teams typically average.
Were they able to do the same with Florida, that would reduce Florida to an average of 6.3 yards per play. Over a 70-play game, that would translate to 33 points. Reduce that to 60 plays and that decreases to 28 points.
So can Georgia score 28 points?
Well, if we do the same exercise with Florida, the Gators have actually (amazingly) held its opponents to an average of 0.1 yards per play below their season average. This is heavily weighted by their performance against South Carolina and Missouri, but those games count.
In that case, we would expect Georgia to average 5.3 yards per play, requiring 78 plays to get to 28 points.
But what if the Florida defense that showed up against Ole Miss and A&M shows up in Jacksonville? Well, that defense gave up an average of 1.0 yards per play more than its opponents’ average, meaning Georgia would expect an average of 6.4 yards per play, just slightly better than we would expect from Florida given the Bulldogs defense.
So that’s really the question. Is the Florida defense that showed up against Missouri (or even South Carolina) the defense that shows up at the Cocktail Party? If so, Florida wins the game something like 34-24.
But if the defense is the one that showed up against Ole Miss, the score likely flips to 34-24 Georgia.
I actually think it’s going to be somewhere down the middle. I do think Florida is going to have trouble stopping Georgia’s running game and will probably give up about 40 percent on third-down conversions.
I think that means Georgia does score some points, which means that this one falls on Kyle Trask to respond.
And while I think Georgia’s defense is good, having Kyle Pitts or Kadarius Toney in one-on-one coverage consistently – or Georgia having to go to a lot of zone – is going to give Trask multiple shots to put the Gators up early.
But I also think that Trask is going to be able to move the ball consistently against the Georgia defense, much the way Alabama was able to move the ball against the Bulldogs.
And then there’s this: every close game I’ve watched Georgia play has had a moment where Kirby Smart had an opportunity to be a difference maker with a decision he makes. Almost every time, he’s made the wrong decision.
I think this one’s going to be close, and I don’t trust Smart in a close game.
Gators (+3.5) win, 28-27.
Predictions this season: 3-1 straight-up, 2-2 against the spread