*Lines pulled from Bovada on 11/5/20
#8 FLORIDA VS #5 GEORGIA -3.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Georgia (-155) / Florida (+135)
Total: Over/Under 52.5 (-110)
Three years ago, UGA RB Elijah Holyfield broke the plane of the goal line to put the Dawgs up 42-0 over Florida in what would soon become Jim McElwain’s last quarter as the head coach of the Gators.
Don’t relive a terrible moment, use it to create perspective. Florida has come a long way under Mullen in just two-and-a-half seasons.
Mullen and clearly overmatched Florida team fought into the second half before a clearly better Georgia squad pulled away in year one. A strong showing at eventual national champion LSU had many of us optimistic heading into the 2019 game, but a dominant UGA defense keep Trask and the Gators out of the end zone until the fourth quarter. Georgia controlled the trenches on both sides of the ball and it served as a reminder that a talent gap, particularly up front, existed between the two rosters. It’s a maddening truth, but a truth nonetheless.
Defensive deficiencies have clouded what has turned out to be a stellar offensive start to the pandemic affected 2020 season in Gainesville. I want to believe those defensive issues were laid to rest with a strong performance last week, but that may be an overly hopeful point of view. There is one clear path for the Gators in this game: live by the Trask and die by the Trask.
Forget establishing the run. Forget counting on the defense to play another strong game. Florida needs an Heisman worthy performance out of of their senior quarterback. Luckily, Trask is capable of delivering such a performance.
Kirby Smart continues to refuse to give USC transfer J.T. Daniels a look at the quarterback position despite Stetson Bennett’s limitations. No doubt Bennett will be able to capitalize on a few big plays in this matchup, but I have serious doubts that he can keep up with Trask.
We saw Bennett play his heart out against Alabama, but while Mac Jones and the Bama offense kept rolling, Bennett and the Dawgs grinded to a halt. Georgia cannot keep up with a high octane Gators offense, so you know the plan is going to be to keep the ball on the ground, eat clock, and rely on a stout defense.
The Dawgs hang their hat on this simple formula most weeks, but as injuries pile up on the defensive side of the ball, you have to wonder how effective this Georgia defense will be against one of the best offenses in the nation?
Georgia will be missing DL Julian Rochester and S Richard LeCounte, a sturdy centerfielder who has a nose for the football and a knack for making big plays.
In addition, NT Jordan Davis, LB Monty Rice, and LeCounte’s fellow starting safety, Lewis Cline, are all banged up. They may make appearances on Saturday, but each will be hobbled to some degree.
Florida has scored on their first drive in each of their first four games. Three touchdowns and a field goal against Missouri last week. Trask and the offense need to force Bennett into catch-up mode and, eventually, like we saw in Tuscaloosa, the UGA offense will break down.
If the Gators can jump on the Dawgs early and if the defense can play close to the level we saw last week (no major gaffes), Florida will walk away victorious with full control of the SEC East heading into a winnable slate down the stretch.
FLORIDA +3.5 (-115)
#7 TEXAS A&M -10 (-110) AT SOUTH CAROLINA
Moneyline: Texas A&M (-360) / South Carolina (+280)
Total: Over/Under 58.5
A Gators win on Saturday would make the Aggies happy.
Texas A&M has quietly risen into the playoff picture and the better Florida looks down the stretch, the better the Aggies’ resume looks to the CFP Selection Committee.
Muschamp and the Cocks failed to show at Death Valley a couple of weeks back. If anyone has time to logically explain the Auburn-South Carolina, LSU-South Carolina, and LSU-Auburn round robin to me, I’m all ears.
In fairness to South Carolina, they are usually a much tougher out at home. Texas A&M is due for a slowdown and South Carolina may bounce back in this one. Expect a dogfight out of Muschamp’s troops, but Jimbo and A&M will find a way to survive.
TENNESSEE -2 (-110) AT ARKANSAS
Moneyline: Tennessee (-125) / Arkansas (+105)
Total: Over/Under 52.5
Sam Pittman’s Arkansas revival has been a great story so far this season. Aside from a second half beatdown at the hands of a vastly superior Georgia team, the Hogs have been competitive each week. Texas A&M outpaced the Razorbacks, but a late cover means Vegas has properly calibrated their expectations about Feleipe Franks & Co.
I showed faith in picking Tennessee to cover at Georgia. The Vols burned me.
I showed faith in picking Tennessee to cover against Kentucky. The Vols burned me.
There is still part of my brain telling me to pick Tennessee in this one, but I’ve had enough. Arkansas has consistently showed up a fought hard this season. Barry Odom’s defense should benefit from facing a vulnerable quarterback. The Hogs will have a enough juice to pull off of the minor upset in this one and send the Vols back to Knoxville with their fourth loss in a shortened 10-game season.
ARKANSAS +2 (+125)
VANDERBILT AT MISSISSIPPI STATE -19 (-115)
Moneyline: Mississippi State (-1100) / Vanderbilt (+650)
Total: Over/Under 44.5
Mike Leach coaching in the SEC has been on my wishlist for some time now. We saw the type of interest he can create after what appeared to be an upset at LSU on opening day, but now we’re getting to see the lows of a Leach construction job.
Texas Tech did not post a winning conference record until year three of Leach. Washington State went 3-9 in two of Leach’s first three seasons in Pullman. Mississippi State’s path to a bowl game this year was always to win their soft nonconference games and pull off a couple of upsets in conference play. Not many expected to see the Bulldogs post a winning record within league play.
Leach will grow this program, but he needs time. In addition to seeing SEC defenses sit back in coverage, the Bulldogs have seem several players leave the program over the last month.
Mike Leach on October 12: “This happens any time you take over a new program. I think we do have some fence riders.. They need to jump on board really quick, or the train is going to roll on without them.”
Since then, 7 players will have entered the transfer portal.
— Robbie Faulk (@robbiefaulkOn3) October 28, 2020
This is a good sign. It means Leach is firmly in control. This isn’t his first rodeo. He knows what he’s doing and Matt Bonesteel wrote a good piece about it last week in The Washington Post.
State has a way to go, but there’s no reason to panic if you’re partial to cowbells. This program has been a mess since Dan Mullen left for Gainesville. There was some work to do. Leach’s track record shows he’s the right man for the job.
All that being said, what is Vegas thinking with this spread? The Bulldogs will welcome a desperate Vanderbilt team into Starkville. The Commodores have been thoroughly hammered by three mediocre SEC teams in their last three outings and have little hope to find a win on the rest of their schedule. If Derek Mason and the Dores are going to avoid the goose egg in the win column this season, this weekend would be a good time to rise up.
Season in Review
Overall: 17-19 (47.2%)
Week 1: 3-4
Week 2: 3-4
Week 3: 4-3
Week 4: 1-4
Week 5: 2-2
Week 6: 4-2
FLORIDA MONEYLINE – Correct
Mizzou has a good shot to cover in this one, but on the off chance Trask and the offense light it up, I’m going to play it safe and take the Gators on the moneyline.
The Gators showed up on the defensive side of the ball and put together a quality performance heading into Georgia.
GEORGIA -17 – Incorrect
Kirby and offensive creativity are two concepts that are often not mentioned in the same sentence, so I’m not sure what to expect from Georgia on Saturday. If he were smart, Daniels would see significant playing time as the Bulldogs gear up for the Gators next week.
Why does Smart refuse to give Daniels a shot? J.T. would’ve covered!
LSU MONEYLINE – Incorrect
The last two Auburn victories were aided by two massive SEC officiating errors. Auburn WR Seth Williams and RB Tank Bigsby may be in line to have big days for War Eagle, but a critical mistake from Bo Nix will be the difference in this game.
LSU remains a mystery. Up one week, down the next. Expect more growing pains ahead for the Bayou Bengals.
OLE MISS -16.5 (-110) – Correct
Vanderbilt is always good for at least one upset per year. That upset may come next week against Mississippi State. The Rebels should cruise in this one.
The Rebels did what the Rebels were supposed to do in this one.
ALABAMA -31 (-110) – Correct
Bama scores early and often while the Bulldogs continue to struggle.
Roll Tide.
ARKANSAS +12 ( -110) – Correct
Despite stellar defensive play, the Hogs can be mistake prone at times. Texas A&M will take advantage of a few of those mistakes and make Arkansas pay, but the Hogs are certainly capable of keeping things close. Woo Pig Sooie covers.
The Aggies kept the Hogs at bay, but Arkansas scored late to cover. Woo Pie Sooie!