ARKANSAS AT #6 FLORIDA -17 (-110)
Moneyline: Florida (-800) / Arkansas (+500)
Total: Over/Under 60 (-110)
The Gators are riding high coming off of the biggest win of the Dan Mullen era. Following up a critical win is always tough. There are some years, not always, but more than you’d like where Florida plays with a bit of a hangover the week after the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.
Since the beginning of the Urban Meyer era in 2005, the Gators have only lost four times the week after Georgia, but they’ve played with fire on several occasions against the likes of Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Arkansas.
- 2005 – W, 49-42 OT vs Vanderbilt
- 2006 – W, 25-19 at Vanderbilt
- 2011 – W, 26-21 vs Vanderbilt
- 2012 – W, 14-7 vs Missouri
- 2013 – L, 34-17 vs Vanderbilt
- 2015 – W, 9-7 vs Vanderbilt
- 2016 – L, 31-10 at Arkansas
- 2017 – L, 45-16 at Missouri
- 2018 – L, 38-17 vs Missouri
With that in mind, a 17-point spread is the last thing I want to see this week, even if the Gators possess a much more talented roster.
Not one pundit had Arkansas sitting at .500 six games into the season. The Hogs were wildly underestimated, but not without reason. First-year head coach Sam Pittman, who will be out on Saturday after contracting COVID-19 this week, inherited a complete trainwreck in Fayetteville after the Morris and Bielema hires went south.
Pittman’s enthusiasm coupled with savvy hires and good pickups in the transfer portal have rejuvenated the Razorbacks football program. Florida transfer quarterback Feleipe Franks has provided Arkansas with a steady hand, but the story of the season is a defense which has been surprisingly good at times. Led by defensive coordinator, former Mizzou head coach and Saturday’s fill-in head coach, Barry Odom, the Hogs have improved significantly on the defensive side of the football.
Arkansas won’t play a complete game, but they are more than capable of playing good stretches of football. The Gators offense should continue to roll, with or without, sensational TE Kyle Pitts. Florida needs to continue its improvement on defense. Despite a positive performance last week, there were still a few instances where the Gators left receivers running free in the secondary. Georgia didn’t convert on many of those attempts, a more experienced Franks won’t let the secondary off the hook.
Will the Gators show up and look like they did against Mizzou two weeks ago or will this game look more like a repeat of South Carolina? I’m comfortable picking the Gators to win, but I’m not so sure I love the spread, so we’re going to take the conservative route this week and go with Florida on the moneyline.
VANDERBILT AT KENTUCKY -17.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Kentucky (-900) / Vanderbilt (+550)
Total: Over/Under 41.5 (-110)
Vanderbilt couldn’t break through to snag an ever elusive first victory last week in Starkville, but the Commodores easily covered the 17-point spread against a questionable offense.
Kentucky has had its ups and downs this season. It’s difficult to tell which version of the Wildcats will show up on any given week. On a good day, Kentucky can cover this easily. We know the defense can play, but I’m hesitant to trust the offense giving up more than two scores. Kentucky wins; Vandy has a decent shot to cover. I already picked Vandy to cover last week and got away with it. I don’t feel as confident in the Dores this week. Cats on the moneyline.
SOUTH CAROLINA AT OLE MISS -11 (-110)
Moneyline: Ole Miss (-420) / South Carolina (+310)
Total: Over/Under 70.5 (-110)
South Carolina was looking good heading into the LSU game off of an upset over Auburn a few weeks back. Since then, it’s been all downhill. A stagnant Gamecocks offense will get a favorable matchup against Ole Miss, but the Rebels offense will set the pace on Saturday. No chance Carolina keeps up.
SEC hit hard by COVID; four games PPD
The SEC suffered its worst COVID hit to date this week. Four games have been postponed:
- Georgia at Missouri
- Texas A&M at Tennessee
- Auburn at Mississippi State
- Alabama at LSU
Kudos to the college football world for giving this season a shot. Delays were expected and the SEC did as good of a job planning for those inevitabilities as any conference.
When the new 10-game schedule was announced in late July, bye weeks were built in for each squad as well as a league-wide open date on December 12, the Saturday before the SEC Championship Game.
To date, the system has worked flawlessly. A COVID outbreak a few weeks into the season forced the SEC to restructure games, but everything fit neatly. Florida had its game against LSU postponed to the December 12 open date, bumped up the bye week on the backend of the delayed LSU game and pushed the Mizzou game til the week before Georgia. No problem!
Now, it gets complicated.
LSU is already scheduled to play at Florida on December 12, but shouldn’t more priority be put on an West division matchup with the Tide?
Missouri and Vandy are set to square off on December 12. Does Georgia just lose the game?
Postponements will morph into cancellations and December 12 will likely become a fluid day. Bill Bender of the Sporting News laid out the SEC’s best route forward:
- If neither team has a game set for December 12, allow them to play. Example: Texas A&M and Tennessee should have no issues playing on December 12 as neither school had a previously postponed game.
- For teams with conflicts: LSU-Florida, Mizzou-Vandy already scheduled; the SEC needs to root for the Gators and Crimson Tide to clinch the East and West by December 5. If both teams do so (a likely scenario), the SEC could allow Florida/Alabama to enjoy a bye week before the title game. Georgia and LSU could pair up for a pick-up game if they wished to complete a 10-game schedule.
LSU may not be at its best in 2020, but I’m sure Dan Mullen and the Gators wouldn’t mind a bye week heading into Atlanta.
Season in Review
Overall: 21-19 (52.5%)
Week 1: 3-4
Week 2: 3-4
Week 3: 4-3
Week 4: 1-4
Week 5: 2-2
Week 6: 4-2
Week 6: 4-0
FLORIDA +3.5 (-115) – Correct
Forget establishing the run. Forget counting on the defense to play another strong game. Florida needs an Heisman worthy performance out of of their senior quarterback. Luckily, Trask is capable of delivering such a performance.
This is the type of victory that will make you smile on some random day in February. Beating Georgia needs to become a regular thing again. It’s great to be a Florida Gator!
TEXAS A&M MONEYLINE(-360) – Correct
In fairness to South Carolina, they are usually a much tougher out at home. Texas A&M is due for a slowdown and South Carolina may bounce back in this one
A win is a win, but I hemmed and hawed over this one last week figuring Muschamp and the Gamecocks were going to be a tough out at home. Nice win by Jimbo and the Aggies!
ARKANSAS +2 (+125) – Correct
The Hogs will have a enough juice to pull off of the minor upset in this one and send the Vols back to Knoxville with their fourth loss in a shortened 10-game season.
A dominant second half performance gets the Hogs to the .500 mark and Tennessee is left with more questions than answers heading into the home stretch.
VANDERBILT +19 (-105) – Correct
All that being said, what is Vegas thinking with this spread?
Still not clear on what Vegas was thinking with such a high spread. State has struggled to score with any type of consistency since the opener.