Back in March, I wrote that it was unlikely Kyle Trask would be able to make the same leap from 2019 to 2020 that Joe Burrow made from 2018 to 2019.
The reasoning was simple. Burrow made his leap because he was able to push the ball downfield at about the same clip while massively improving his accuracy. Trask was already really accurate, so a leap like Burrow’s would require him to push the ball down the field while maintaining his accuracy, or even improving it.
The lesson, as always, is I’m an idiot.
Taking a look at Trask’s stats after his evisceration of Arkansas shows exactly what I thought was unlikely. Not only has he slightly improved his completion percentage (68.7% to 70.1%), but he has significantly increased his ability to go down the field, averaging 10.3 yards per attempt and 14.7 yards per completion (8.3 and 12.4 last year, respectively).
For frame of reference, Joe Burrow averaged 10.8 yards per attempt and 14.1 yards per completion in 2019 on his way to the Heisman Trophy. Burrow also had a QB rating of 202.0 and Trask is now at 197.5.
They’re essentially the same player.
Fans will try to make a distinction that Trask’s work has been against all SEC opposition while Burrow got to feast against Georgia Southern and Northwestern State. This is true, but does undersell how good Burrow was, including an absolute torching of the Gators.
You don’t need to tear down Burrow’s performance to compliment Trask. In fact, perhaps the best thing you can say about Trask is that through six games, he’s about as close to Burrow as someone could be.
And that means he needs to start being talked about as the frontrunner for the Heisman Trophy instead of just joining the race. Justin Fields just joined the race. Trevor Lawrence had to take a pit-stop in the middle of the race.
Kyle Trask has gone right by them.
The Film
One of the things that keeps impressing me is that Trask gets better week to week.
He was playing well against Ole Miss, South Carolina and Texas A&M. But he’s taken things up a considerable notch against Georgia and Arkansas.
One thing that I noted after the Texas A&M game was that he was eschewing easy check-downs to try and go further down the field. He still did that against Arkansas, but only when it made sense.
Here’s an example. Trask immediately identifies that Arkansas drops into a zone at the snap. You can see how far back they all drop by the line I’ve placed on the field. That means that Malik Davis (#20) is open. Davis turns this into a first down, but regardless of whether he broke the first tackle or not, Florida was going to be set up in prime position to attack following this simple check=down.
This wasn’t something that Trask was doing a few weeks ago. Recall when he threw back against his body trying to force the ball to Pitts when Davis was out in the flat for a big game. Part of what impressed me with Trask’s play against the Razorbacks is that he was patient when it was the right thing to do and then he struck when he saw an opportunity.
The deep touchdown throw to Copeland is a great example of what I’m talking about.
When Trask hits his drop, he has two guys open, neither of whom are Copeland. Kadarius Toney (#1) is open across the middle and Kemore Gamble (#88) is open in the zone. But Trask understands that the Razorbacks are in cover-3 and waits just an extra beat to allow the defensive back running with Copeland (#15) to hesitate. He then makes a perfect throw away from the middle safety where only Copeland can catch the ball.
Trask also has added arm strength this season, and he is using it to his advantage.
On this play, it’s pretty clearly going to be one-on-one coverage on tight end Keon Zipperer (#9) from Arkansas’ alignment at the snap. But look at how Trask keeps both his eyes, and his body, facing the deep safety. He then unloads right down the field the minute he hits his drop, making a perfect throw over the linebacker while leading Zipperer away from the safety.
Trask absolutely carved up Arkansas, but I actually think they had the right idea playing zone. Because when they brought blitz, he knew exactly what to do.
On this play, Arkansas blitzes six defenders. Florida sends both the tight end (Zipperer, #9) and the running back (#20, Davis) out into pass routes. That means Florida only has five blockers for the six defenders rushing.
Watch the minute Trask gets the ball from the center. He’s immediately drifting backwards, buying just enough time for Zipperer to beat his man. It doesn’t matter that right tackle Jean Delance (#56) whiffs on his man. Trask anticipated the pressure, which is why he was able to get this throw off.
And then there’s this.
Fans might compare this to the touchdown throw Trask made at the end of the second quarter to Trevon Grimes to put Florida up 38-21 against Georgia, but what they’re missing is that this throw comes from the left hash to the right corner while the throw to Grimes came from the right hash to the right corner.
This is an NFL throw. Shorter isn’t open. Trask just puts the ball in a location where only Shorter can catch it on an absolute frozen rope.
It’s an incredible catch by Shorter (so much so that Trevon Grimes got penalized for coming down to celebrate from the sideline). But this isn’t a throw Trask would have attempted last year, let alone been able to pull off.
The film is pretty clear. Trask is showing patience when it is warranted by the situation. But when he smells blood, he is throwing his receivers open.
The Burrow Comparison
Through Burrow’s first six SEC games last season, he averaged 10.4 yards per attempt and had a Yards above Replacement (YAR, my stat that measures QB efficiency) of 2.41, well in Heisman territory.
Through Trask’s first six SEC games this season, he has averaged 10.3 yards per attempt and has a YAR of 2.49, better than Burrow. Interestingly, Trask has been more consistent as well.
Kyle Trask (2020) and Joe Burrow (2019) YAR comparison in their first six SEC games. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
You can see that Burrow had some really high highs (YAR = 4.66 against Florida) but also an average performance as well (YAR = 0.02 vs. Auburn). Trask has not had that happen yet, as his lowest YAR thus far is 1.62 against South Carolina.
If it feels like he has really turned it on since the team returned from COVID-19 quarantine, your feeling is accurate. Trask had a YAR of 2.54 against Missouri, 3.21 against Georgia and 3.55 against Arkansas. He’s getting better.
Add to that the opponents coming up (Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee and LSU) and you would expect Trask’s improvement to continue.
So I mentioned at the start that Trask’s yards per attempt are the underlying reason for his improvement this season, so what does that look like?
Well, last season he threw 10.4 percent of his passes 20+ yards (thanks to www.secstatcat.com for the database). He completed 38.9 percent of those throws. This season, he has increased how often he’s going down field to 13.1 percent, but he’s hitting on them 63 percent of the time. That means that his yards per attempt on 20+ yard throws has increased from 11.6 last season to 20.1 this year.
Beyond that, Trask’s averages are really close to what they were last season. The three percent he’s added going down field has been substituted for throws behind the line of scrimmage. That’s actually the one area where Florida’s offseason losses at receiver seem to have taken their toll, as the Gators are only averaging 4.2 yards per play on those bubble screens compared to 8.1 yards per play last season.
The result is that Florida can stretch the defense down field in a way they could not last season. That’s why defenses are having so much trouble with the Gators.
Just look at the Arkansas game. On the opening drive, Florida ran 7:24 of clock on a 14-play, 75-yard touchdown drive where Trask had to convert a couple of third downs (and a fourth down) but Florida was able to take what was in front of them and march right down the field.
But the last three touchdown drives of the first half were 1:11 (4 plays, 74 yards), 2:22 (5 plays, 65 yards) and 2:40 (7 plays, 53 yards).
That is all Trask. When the defense is willing to give up yards but forces him to be patient, he is. When the defense gets impatient and decides to open things up a little bit, Trask is able to take advantage of that too.
Takeaway
Whether Trask wins the Heisman Trophy or ends up grading out better than Burrow by the end of the year is really immaterial.
The reason I make these comparisons though is that Burrow had one of the great seasons every by a college QB and Kyle Trask is on his way to replicating – or even besting – it. Don’t take it for granted.
Perhaps this might put things into perspective.
- 1995 Danny Wuerffel (YAR = 2.00)
- 1996 Danny Wuerffel (YAR = 2.11)
- 2001 Rex Grossman (YAR = 2.30)
- 2007 Tim Tebow (YAR = 2.25)
- 2008 Tim Tebow (YAR = 1.76)
- 2009 Tim Tebow (YAR = 1.92)
- 2020 Kyle Trask (YAR = 2.49)
Obviously, those guys won Heisman Trophies. They also won National Championships, and let’s be honest, while the Heisman is why they have statues in front of Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, the championships are why they are legends.
Trask has yet to put the championship rings on anyone’s finger. But if he keeps up what he’s been doing, he’s on pace for the greatest QB season in Florida history.
I doubt Florida fans take this for granted. After all, we’ve had the last decade to suffer through mediocre to terrible QB play from the likes of John Brantley, Jeff Driskel, Jacoby Brissett, Treon Harris, Tyler Murphy, Skyler Morhinweg, Luke Del Rio, Austin Appleby, Malik Zaire and 2017 Feleipe Franks.
Lots of the credit for this offensive renaissance needs to go to Dan Mullen. After all, the Gators are now averaging 45.8 points per game. McElwain’s teams only scored that many points in a game one time, and that was against cupcake New Mexico State.
But a lot of the credit has to go to Kyle Trask. Not just because he’s a good story or because he didn’t start in high school. But because he is playing at a level only reached by the elite-of-the-elite of college football.
Back in 2015 and 2016, Florida made the SEC Championship Game, mostly due to a SEC East that was struggling as a whole. Those teams came to Atlanta with little hope of beating Alabama.
The 2015 team actually kept it pretty close, falling to the Tide 29-15 but still keeping Alabama within reach going into halftime down 7-12. But the 2016 team got its doors blown off 54-16, proving just how far the gap was between the two teams.
Part of the reason for the lack of hope amongst Gators fans was that we knew our offense couldn’t score against Alabama. Even after Austin Appleby led a perfect TD drive to open that 2016 game, a couple of mistakes later and all hope was lost.
That won’t be the case this year. With Trask at the helm, this Florida team can score with anybody. That’s necessary because of the struggled on defense, but there is hope in the game against Alabama because there may be an opportunity to put Alabama down by 14 and watch them press. Or if Alabama jumps out to a big lead, it’s nothing Florida hasn’t overcome against similarly talented defense (I’m looking at you, Georgia).
Maybe Trask can lead the upset. Maybe he can’t.
But the one thing that always makes you smile as a fan, the one thing that makes you look forward to every Saturday when your team is on a special run, is hope.
Kyle Trask may win the Heisman Trophy. He may win an SEC Championship. He may guide the Gators to the playoffs. He may even pull it off and bring home the National Championship to Gainesville.
He’s given us Gators fans hope.