The All-SEC Project: Part 2 – Where do All-SEC Football Players Come From?

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There’s been a lot of noise over the past year about Dan Mullen’s recruiting, his use of the transfer portal, and generally whether or not he’s building a championship roster at UF. Within this constant stream of fan debate, one theme seems to be as common as it is commonly overlooked: Namely, where is Mullen supposed to find the players he needs to win a championship?

At first, this may not seem like an issue many people talk about. But, remember early on, when Mullen wanted to emphasize California in his recruiting? What about talk during the 2019 cycle of preserving the Lakeland pipeline? Or, what about this year, when all the early focus centered on breaking into Miami’s Palmetto high school? Each of these issues were major storylines in Mullen’s effort to build a championship-level roster and each of them revolves around where he should search for elite players.

From a fan point of view however, it’s often difficult to identify any rhyme or reason to where these players are coming from. I mean, sure, we know the state of Florida has a lot of talent and that certain areas seem to produce well for the Gators, but is there a method within the madness? Is it possible to identify trends within the data that point to some areas being more fruitful than others? Or is it all just random?

With these things in mind, this part 2 of The All-SEC Project series will seek to identify where All-SEC players come from. Using 10 years of AP All-SEC Team data (549 player profiles) as a lens, this means discovering where Mullen has the best shot of finding the All-SEC players he needs to win the conference. To do so, the All-SEC data will first be used to answer the following questions:

• Where do All-SEC Football players come from, generally speaking?
• What percentage of players come from within the Southeast Region?
• Which states produce the most All-SEC players?
• Are the top states fueled by “talent pipeline” high schools?
• Which High Schools produce the most All-SEC players?
• Wait…. Where is IMG academy?
• Does the state of Florida produce enough All-SEC talent at each position?
• What’s the right mix of home state vs out of state All-SEC players?
• Are there alternative sources of All-SEC talent?

Once these questions are answered, the insight they provide will be used to evaluate where things stand in Mullen’s search for a championship-level All-SEC player nucleus. This includes identification of where Mullen appears to be succeeding, along with some areas where things may need to improve. In each case, The Championship Template (from part 1 of this series) will be used to compare Mullen’s results to that of recent conference champions. So, get ready, because here comes part 2…

***Note from the author: I’m writing this article series to benefit a charity that helps people in desperate need. If you like what you read, please click here to learn about how you can help***

The All-SEC Project: Part 2 – Where do All-SEC Football Players Come From?

Where do All-SEC Football players come from, generally speaking?

Over the past decade, the AP’s post-season All-SEC football teams have included 549 Selections of 423 individual players. These players originate from 359 different high schools in 34 states, as well as The District of Columbia, and 2 foreign nations. The group represents every football program in the SEC, and as outlined in Part 1 of this series, has a consistently-heavy presence within the lineups of the league’s champion teams.

What percentage of players come from within the Southeast Region?

While these players do originate from all over the country (and beyond), most are from states which host an SEC member university. In fact, 81% of the last decade’s All-SEC selections emerged from within this 14-state geographical footprint.

When SEC programs do find All-conference talent outside this territory, such standouts are somewhat more likely to play at a few select positions. All-SEC Tight Ends and Defensive Tackles for example, are the most-likely non-kicker positions to originate from outside the SEC’s territorial boundaries. Interestingly, UF has experienced very similar results at both positions. Consider that recent All-SEC Gator tight ends include Jordan Reed (from Connecticut), transfer Jake McGee (from Virginia), and current phenom Kyle Pitts (from Pennsylvania). At Defensive Tackle, both Shariff Floyd (Pennsylvania) and Taven Bryan (Wyoming) were from outside the region, with Caleb Brantley being the only All-SEC Floridian at the position.

Which States produce the most All-SEC players?

With so much of the SEC’s elite talent coming from within its regional borders, it stands to reason that states within the footprint are among its top talent-producing areas. This isn’t true in every case however, as you’ll notice as we break down the numbers. Check out the chart below, and keep in mind that teams typically need at least 6 (but preferably 8+) All-SEC players in a single season to win the conference title:

***Author’s note: Kentucky fans should probably skip to the next section. You’ve been warned***

The thing that immediately jumps out to me from this data is that it clearly identifies which states are the “haves” and which are the “have nots”. While the top-5 states on the list (Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, Alabama, and Texas) each produced enough All-SEC players to fuel anywhere from 7 to 10 championship teams over the past decade, Kentucky didn’t even produce enough for 1. And remember, this is about what the state produced, not the programs we typically associate with that location. So, while the gaudy numbers of those at the top don’t necessarily mean that all of the talent was funneled to the home state schools, it also means that poor ole’ Kentucky wasn’t even guaranteed the 4 elites their state produced. But hey, at least The Bluegrass State had 2 more than Australia.

When we view this list however, we do have to keep in mind that programs exert significant influence in developing talent into All-SEC football players. In no way is it so simple as to be a mere matter of “talent in, production out”. Nick Saban’s coaching had plenty to do with Alabama’s lofty total, and to a lesser degree so did that of both Gus Malzahn and Gene Chizik at Auburn. The same could be said of many coaches who contributed to the refining of their state’s athletic talent into All-SEC caliber players. But then again, let’s not kid ourselves here. Some of these states prove to be loaded with talented prospects, year after year.

Since Florida is often recognized as the very best of these football-talent-producing states, it’s probably surprising for some to see it ranked at any spot other than #1. But there are a few factors to consider here. First of all, the UF program spent the first half of the last decade squandering offensive talent, then spent the second half struggling to land the best prospects on either side of the ball. While 56 all-conference players over 10 years is still amazing, the Gators’ recent struggles probably hurt the state’s total to a small degree. Also, the Sunshine State is home to 2 other big-time, non-SEC college football programs (and no, I’m not referring to the one which recently lost to Tulsa at home). FSU and Miami’s continued recruiting presence hurts the state’s All-SEC production in a way that is likely unmatched anywhere else in the SEC footprint.

From a Gator football perspective, these results represent potentially good news. UF’s home state is producing 5.6 All-SEC players per year, which is almost enough to fuel a championship run in any given season. There is fierce competition for these players of course, along with timing issues that we will discuss in part 3 of this series. But the important takeaway here is that Florida has a more than sufficient All-SEC-level talent base.

Are the top states fueled by “talent pipeline” high schools?

If certain states disproportionately feed the SEC’s regional talent pool, it could logically be assumed that certain high schools will also disproportionately feed their states. But is that the case?  As it turns out, yes. Of Georgia’s national best 64 All-SEC players, 39% played for a mere 7 high-schools. In Louisiana, 8 high schools generated 39% of that state’s total All-SEC crop as well. The top-end concentration was even higher in Alabama, where 10 high schools produced 48%. In Florida, 9 high schools each produced 2 future All-SEC players, for 32% of the state’s total. Texas was the only top-5 state with a relatively low concentration, as only 3 schools had more than 1. The 7 All-SEC players from those high schools comprised only 17% of the Lonestar state’s 10-year total.

Which High Schools produce the most All-SEC players?

Since pipeline high schools provide such a sizable chunk of the league’s All-SEC players, you might be wondering which of them churns out more than any other. The list below details the nation’s top-10 All-SEC-player-producing high schools of the last 10 years:

As it turns out, Stephenson High School in Stone Mountain, Georgia is the current king of the hill. With an astounding 7 All-SEC players over the past 10 years, the Atlanta-area high school nearly doubled up 2nd place North Gwinnett. For that matter, they nearly doubled up the entire state of Kentucky (Ok, I should’ve warned the Wildcat fans to skip this section as well). The success of these players continued even beyond college, as 5 of the 7 were eventually taken in the first 4 rounds of the NFL draft. Notably, none of the 7 players signed with the Georgia bulldogs, as they settled among 4 other SEC programs.

Wait…. Where is IMG academy?

Among those who follow recruiting with any more than a passing interest, the absence of Florida’s IMG academy from the above list probably raised a few eyebrows. After all, the Bradenton, Florida boarding school regularly draws premier football recruits from all over the country. Designed as a pre-college preparatory stop for elite student athletes, the school has hosted nearly 100 major football recruits over the past 8 recruiting cycles. With gobs of talent (and recruiting storylines) emanating from the school to a variety of blueblood football programs in recent years, how did they not make the cut?

Well, first you have to understand that IMG fielded a football team for the first time in 2013 (during the 2014 recruiting cycle). While the program produced at least 56 major football prospects in its first 5 years (2014-2018 recruiting cycles), only 30 of them (54%) were from states inside the SEC footprint. Given what we learned earlier about where the SEC finds its elite talent, it isn’t that surprising that only 12 of the aforementioned 56 signed with SEC schools. The percentage of SEC footprint recruits is increasing at IMG however (up to 66% for the 2019-2020 cycles), and SEC programs have begun to make their move. After signing only 12 Florida Top-150 prospects from IMG during its first 5 recruiting cycles, SEC programs signed 10 over the past 2 years alone.

Even if this wasn’t the case however, it’s not as if the school hasn’t produced for the conference. Of those 12 IMG players from the 2014-2018 recruiting cycles who did sign with SEC schools, 2 eventually earned AP All-SEC recognition (Arkansas OL Hjalte Froholdt in 2018 & LSU S Grant Delpit in 2019). Moreover, with SEC programs increasing their recruiting presence at the school, it is highly likely that this number increases in the near future.

Does the state of Florida produce enough All-SEC talent at each position?

Even if you discount IMG’s out of state transplants, the state of Florida has plenty of All-SEC talent. It is important however, to identify whether UF can expect to consistently find such in-state players at each of the positions they need. After all, the analysis presented in part 1 of this series suggests that some positions are more important than others when it comes to winning the SEC.  So, in order to bring clarity to this issue, we will review how many All-SEC players the state of Florida produced at each position over the past decade.

The only problem with such analysis, is that it depends on minor distinctions within a mere 56-player pool (the number of in-state All-SEC players over the last decade), divided among 13 different on-field positions. As a result, future variances of only a few players at any one position could present a starkly different positional picture. While this type of limitation is present to some degree throughout this project, the risk of distortion is even greater in this case, as the sample sizes shrink. At the same time, the possibility of variance doesn’t mean there is no insight to be gained here. So, let’s take a look at the numbers, keeping these limitations in mind:

The first thing to note is that the state of Florida ranks #1 or #2 nationally (as compared to other states) in producing All-SEC players at 8 of 13 positions. The state ranks 3rd through 5th at an additional 4 positions, with only a single non-top-5 ranking. This shows excellent across-the-board talent production, especially in light of the aforementioned potential for variability. Consider that an additional 2 All-SEC players (over 10 years) would have elevated the state QB ranking to third and the DT ranking into a tie for 5th. Additionally, don’t forget how heavily the state is recruited by non-SEC programs from across the nation. Players like QB Lamar Jackson, DT Timmy Jernigan, and others represent All-SEC level talents who aren’t included in the totals above.

The second thing to notice is that UF capitalized on the in-state All-SEC talent pool much better at some positions than at others. At cornerback for example, the Gators dominated a perpetual geyser of elite talent, landing 7 of the position’s 9 future All-SEC players. Things weren’t so rosy at the key position of running back however, as UF allowed 5 of 6 future all-conference players end up elsewhere in the league.

Finally, notice the conspicuously-low state production of All-SEC QBs (1 over an entire decade) and DT (Also just 1). With acknowledgement to both the aforementioned potential for variance and non-SEC recruiting competition, continuation of these trends may require UF to look for help outside state lines.

What’s the right mix of home state vs out of state All-SEC players?

If recent history is an accurate indication however, UF may need out-of-state All-SEC help at more than just 1 or 2 select positions. 36% of the non-kicker All-SEC selections from recent conference champion teams were from outside their team’s home state. But these numbers are skewed by Alabama’s superb national recruiting prowess during the period. Consider that the 5 Crimson Tide champion teams of the last decade had an in-state All-SEC rate of only 24%. In fact, 3 of those 5 teams featured only 1 All-SEC player from the state of Alabama. The 5 non-Alabama champions had a much higher 49% in-state rate of non-kicker All-SEC players.

As mentioned earlier in this series however, the Alabama discrepancy shouldn’t be taken as cause to write-off the data’s implications. To the contrary, it merely reveals two historically-viable paths of talent acquisition. On the one hand, Alabama’s recruiting reached a level that permitted national cherry-picking of most players they wanted. At such heights, there was almost no need of geographical consideration. On the other hand, the 5 non-Alabama champions instead relied upon a mix of in-state talent (all were from top-5 All-SEC production states) and players from nearby SEC footprint states. While Alabama champion teams featured 16 All-SEC selections from outside the SEC footprint, Joe Burrow accounted for the only one among all 5 non-Alabama champions combined.

At the end of the day, the “take everybody you want from everywhere” strategy is clearly more successful, but that doesn’t detract from the championship viability of the in-state/regional recruiting model. Just as with the “ideal” and “minimum” template standards from part 1 of this series, it’s a matter of identifying both the probable and the possible. Also, there is likely a sliding scale between the two, where improved recruiting prowess incrementally facilitates a more nationally-based approach.

For UF, the winning All-SEC talent acquisition formula may or may not resemble the paths of recent champions. With an abundance of home-grown talent and a currently less-than-ideal recruiting presence, the state/regional model could be held up as most viable. But then again, UF has found All-Conference production outside the SEC region at an Alabama-like level (13 selections for UF over 10 years, as opposed to 16 for Alabama). One could even defend the possibility of a hyper-local model, wherein the Gators win the conference with almost all in-state All-SEC players. This did happen in 2011 after all, when 9 of LSU’s 11 players were from Louisiana.

Are there alternative sources of All-SEC talent?

Up to this point, the origin of eventual All-SEC players has been discussed through the context of those recruited directly from high school to SEC Universities. This is for good reason, as such players account for almost 91% of All-SEC selections over the past 10 years. Sometimes however, conference programs find their elite talent through one of 3 alternative resources:

• Junior Colleges – For those recruits who don’t have the grades to qualify for freshmen admission into SEC schools, “JUCOs” present a second academic chance. By choosing a two-year school which offers both associate’s degree programs and scholarship football, recruits may bring their financial houses into order, while staying on the radar of FBS level programs. JUCO players may come with additional academic risk and fewer years of eligibility, but they sometimes yield high rewards. Over the past decade 32 former JUCO players have appeared on AP All-SEC Teams, with representation in every year except for 2013. After peaking at 6 in 2017, there were 3 JUCO All-SEC players in 2019
• Prep School – Unlike the JUCO route, prep schools serve as a pre-college academic rehabilitation that doesn’t cost the recruit eligibility. After spending a year at such schools playing football and improving grades, prep-school players can sometimes be recruited as freshmen. Within the context of our inquiry however, this route is a bit rare. Prep School players account for only 4 of 549 All-SEC selections since 2010, with the last being 2017.
• The NCAA Transfer Portal – Established in the fall of 2018, the transfer portal is an NCAA- managed database of players seeking to transfer from one college football program to another. Practically speaking however, it’s only part of a larger shift in the way the NCAA handles such moves. Accompanied by rules changes making it easier for players to change schools while preserving eligibility, more and higher profile players are transferring between schools. To understand how fast this development is impacting the conference, consider that between 2010-2017, only 7 transfers won All-SEC recognition. Over the past 2 seasons however, there have been 8. Moreover, 2 of the past 3 SEC champion teams have featured a transfer player, including Heisman winner Joe Burrow in 2019.

UF Outlook

These additional avenues should serve to expand UF’s options as they search the nation for elite football players. History however, suggests that any path to championships is likely to require a robust All-SEC player nucleus. As identified in part 1 through the Championship Template, the Gators need to find All-Conference talent in volumes, on both sides of the ball, and at key positions.

While it is possible for such All-SEC players to emerge from just about anywhere, this article’s findings show that it tends to be much more common in certain areas. With this and the championship template in mind, the question must then be asked: Is Coach Mullen looking for All-SEC talent in the right places? In the final section below, I’ll identify a few ways that the Coach appears to be right on track, along with a few areas that appear to need improvement.

Where Mullen appears to be right on-track:

QB Recruiting – Dan Mullen is already considered one of the best QB-developers in college football, but he also appears to be taking QB prospects from high-percentage areas. Consider that the states of Texas and Georgia combined to out-produce Florida at a rate of 7 All-SEC QBs to 1 over the past decade. They also produced such standouts as Kyle Trask (from Texas), Justin Fields (Georgia), Trevor Lawrence (Georgia), among others. If the prospects Mullen is taking at the position are any indication, he too values passers from these locations. After signing Georgia’s Emory Jones in 2018, Mullen now has commitments from QB Carols Del Rio-Wilson (from Cartersville, Georgia) and Jalen Kitna (from Burleson, Texas).

National DT Recruiting – Although Mullen struggled to recruit enough DTs over his first few years at UF, his national approach to the position appears to be a wise choice. No state produced more than 5 All-SEC DTs over the past 10 years and Florida only produced 1. It is probably no coincidence then, that Mullen has filled the position with prospects from Louisiana, Kentucky, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, and Alabama since his arrival.

If Mullen does decide to focus on specific, non-Florida states at the position, Georgia appears to be the logical first choice. With 4 All-SEC players at the position over the past decade, it was 1 short of tying for the national lead. This, coupled with close proximity to UF, and a somewhat-open recruiting culture (many programs enjoy success in Georgia) make it a likely best bet. Although Mississippi tied for 1st nationally with 5 All-SEC DTs, it has historically been a tough place for UF to recruit (even during the Mullen era).

NCAA Transfer portal – At Mississippi State, 32% of Dan Mullen’s All-SEC award winners were from the alternative talent sources discussed earlier in this article. Those all occurred prior to the establishment of the NCAA’s transfer portal however, so most of them (7 of 8) were JUCO prospects. As the portal has become increasingly popular, Mullen has shifted to make it his preferred alternate resource for talent acquisition. The coach has invested heavily in transfers at UF, with at least 10 scholarship portal additions so far. While this is somewhat of an uncharted roster-building path among recent UF coaches, it does coincide with the aforementioned explosion of transfers earning All-SEC recognition. Mullen’s portal takes at UF have accounted for 1 of those so far, as Gator DE Jon Greenard earned a spot on the AP’s 1st team last year.

If Mullen proves he can consistently find such all-conference talents in the portal, it will be a big boost in meeting the Championship Template’s standards. Perhaps more important, is that we don’t yet know the full potential of the portal. As of now, it has essentially pulled even with junior colleges, in terms of annual All-SEC player production. But, between recent COVID-19-related eligibility extensions and the increasing popularity of the portal among players, there’s no telling where the ceiling is. The more important it becomes, the more important it will be for Mullen to capitalize. So far, he’s off to a good start.

Where is improvement needed?

In-state All-SEC talent, especially at key offensive positions –  2019 was the first time in at least 20 years that UF didn’t have a single player from its home state named to the AP’s All-Conference Team. That must change, especially at key offensive positions. I’m not going to pick on UF for missing out on the only All-SEC QB to emerge from Florida over the past decade, but the situation at RB is a different story. The state produced 6 All-SEC RBs over the past 10 years, but 5 of them played at schools other than UF. Considering 9 of 10 recent SEC champs had an All-SEC player at one of these two positions, this has to be considered a major priority.

OL Talent in Florida and Georgia – The state of Florida was only 5th nationally in All-SEC OL production over the past decade, but UF needs to claim a bigger share of these players. The Gators only claimed 2 of the state’s 6 eventual All-SEC players over the past 10 years, with those being Mike Pouncey (all the way back in 2010) and Martez Ivey (2016-2018). Considering how important the position is in relation to the championship template (recent champions averaged 2.1 All-SEC players at the position), more is needed if UF is going to consistently compete for titles.

In searching for out of state help at the position, Georgia appears to be a “no brainer” 1st stop. Although the state produced a national-best 13 All-SEC offensive linemen over the past decade, the detestable program in Athens only managed to sign 6 of them. Unfortunately, the dawgs did produce 4 of the past 5, which will be a strong selling point in recruiting. Such a fertile, nearby territory simply can’t be conceded however, adding one more layer of importance to this (and every) year’s contest in Jacksonville.

What’s next?

While part 1 of this series established what teams typically need from All-SEC players to win the conference, this part 2 explored the dynamics of where such players are typically found. With this piece of our All-SEC puzzle now in place, part 3 will shift to answering questions of “when?” Specifically, the next installment will explain the timing factors of assembling an All-SEC player nucleus. This will include discussion on the impact of redshirts, the timing of development at each position, early NFL draft departures, and much more. Now that we know where UF can find its all-SEC players, we’re going to discuss the timing window of assembling a champion team. Until then, God bless & Go Gators!

***IMPORTANT NOTE FROM THE AUTHOR. PLEASE READ!!!***

This is by far the most ambitious research/writing project I’ve ever undertaken. Whether or not I pull it off, I’m swinging for the fence for one simple reason: I’m not playing for me this time. All of the writing proceeds from this series will be donated to a non-profit organization called First Coast Women’s Services. Located in Florida, FCWS provides 100% free care, support, and advocacy to young women who have experienced unplanned pregnancies. The women they serve face extremely difficult circumstances and the help they receive can both save and change lives.

My challenge to you, Gator Nation, is this: Will you please team up with me, change lives, and win a championship that matters? Thousands of people are going to read this article and together we can fully fund a young mom’s benefits from the program for just $1200 (or more). With that in mind, if you’ve enjoyed reading the article, please click HERE to check out the GoFundMe page. I know this crazy year has been tough on many of you, but if you have some extra cash, please consider giving what you can to change a life. Thank you so much in advance.

God bless & Go Gators,

Bill Sikes