Rolling the dice this on some big favorites this weekend.
#6 FLORIDA -31.5 (-115) AT VANDERBILT
Moneyline: N/A
Total: Over/Under 68 (-110)
Florida was spectacular against Arkansas last week. The Gators, who tend to sleepwalk their way through a post-Georgia game every now and then, showed up in full force and laid 63 points on a solid group of Razorbacks.
As expected, QB Feleipe Franks exposed the UF secondary on a few occasions, but UF doesn’t have to worry about that this week against freshman Ken Seals and Vanderbilt. Though Seals has shown improvement, the Florida defense has a chance to cut out the big plays against the lowest scoring offense in the SEC.
The Commodores have lost their last two contests by a combined total of seven points, but don’t expect them to hang around in this one. Mullen will hopefully allow Trask to rack up at least four touchdowns before pulling him in the third and giving backup Emory Jones some quality reps the rest of the way. Jones proved last week that the offensive engine will run smoothly with him under center.
It’s a big spread to cover, but I’m going to show some faith in the defense to get it done. Gators cover.
Moneyline: LSU (-115) / Arkansas (-105)
Total: Over/Under 63.5 (-110)
The Tigers are back at it after a three week hiatus. LSU’s roller coaster of a season has paled in comparison to a consistently competitive Arkansas. Though the Hogs suffered their worst loss of the season last week in Gainesville, they kept things interesting into the second half.
LSU has sandwiched two good showings between three disappointing losses so far. In each instance, a struggling Tigers defense did not have to face great quarterback play. I’m leaning toward Franks and the Razorbacks in this one, but something tells me LSU will show up ready to fight. The Hogs won’t allow LSU to cross the 30-point mark and the LSU defense will make enough plays to keep this game close. Either way, I like the under.
Under 63.5 (-110)
KENTUCKY AT #1 ALABAMA -30 (-110)
Moneyline: N/A
Total: Over/Under 58 (-110)
Since Kentucky exploded for 34 points against Tennessee (two defensive touchdowns), the Cats have scored a whopping total of 13 points. I’ll preach the gospel of Stoops and Kentucky being a tough out in the SEC on most weeks, but this ain’t one of them. An Alabama offense that has yet to be held under 41 points will continue to roll and the Tide will cover. Can Mac Jones keep up with Trask in the Heisman race?
TENNESSEE AT #23 AUBURN -11 (-110)
Moneyline: Auburn (-420) / Tennessee (+310)
Total: Over/Under 50.5 (-110)
Jarrett Guarantano is healthy after leaving the Arkansas game due to injury a couple weeks back. Vols fans may be itching to replace the senior starter, but if the backup situation is truly as bleak as what we saw on the field in Fayetteville, Rocky Top should pray for Guarantano’s speedy return.
Auburn has been a bit of an enigma. The loss to South Carolina is still inexplicable based on the post-upset trajectory of the Gamecocks . The Tigers blew out a mistake prone LSU team three weeks ago and will need those types of mistakes to cover here. Tennessee likely falls here, but don’t be surprised if the Vols hang around for a bit.
MISSISSIPPI STATE AT #13 GEORGIA -24.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Georgia (-2500) / Mississippi State (+1050)
Total: Over/Under 44.5 (-110)
Kirby Smart has heard the calls to start J.T. Daniels. Georgia fans will get their first look at the USC transfer a month later than they would’ve preferred, but if Daniels plays well, it should inspire hope going forward.
Mississippi State has suffered a mass exodus of players throughout this downward spiral of a season for the Magnolia State’s Bulldogs. Defensive coordinators throughout the SEC have clearly shared a recipe for defending Leach’s vaunted offense since the pirate embarrassed LSU on opening day.
Georgia may continue on its path of offensive ineptitude to some degree, but the Dawgs will score enough to cover against a weak Miss State offense in the Battle of the Bulldogs.
MISSOURI -6.5 (-110) AT SOUTH CAROLINA
Moneyline: Missouri (-110) / South Carolina (+200)
Total: Over/Under 57 (-110)
USC handed its interim tag over to Mike Bobo after firing head coach Will Muschamp earlier this week. The Cocks have not been competitive since their win against Auburn in Week 3 and I don’t expect the trend to change this week. Missouri has shown the ability to play up-tempo and outgun teams (LSU) or slow it down and win with its defense (Kentucky). The Tigers cover easy in the Battle of the Columbias.
POSTPONED
OLE MISS AT #5 TEXAS A&M
Per Saturday Down South, enjoy the San Diego State-Nevada game in the 3:30 PM timeslot on CBS.
The @MountainWest game between @AztecFB and @NevadaFootball to air CBS on Saturday, Nov. 21 @ 3:30 PM, ET. @Brad_nesslerCBS and Gary Danielson will call the action with @JamieErdahl on the sidelines. pic.twitter.com/TsOGXJvaTP
— CBS Sports PR (@CBSSportsGang) November 17, 2020
Season in Review
Overall: 24-19 (55.8%)
Week 1: 3-4
Week 2: 3-4
Week 3: 4-3
Week 4: 1-4
Week 5: 2-2
Week 6: 4-2
Week 7: 4-0
Week 8: 3-0
FLORIDA MONEYLINE – Correct
Will the Gators show up and look like they did against Mizzou two weeks ago or will this game look more like a repeat of South Carolina?
Trask threw six touchdowns and cemented his place in the Heisman race.
KENTUCKY MONEYLINE – Correct
Kentucky wins; Vandy has a decent shot to cover. I already picked Vandy to cover last week and got away with it. I don’t feel as confident in the Dores this week. Cats on the moneyline.
Vandy ended up covering late after being down by 17 in the second half.
OLE MISS -11 – Correct
A stagnant Gamecocks offense will get a favorable matchup against Ole Miss, but the Rebels offense will set the pace on Saturday. No chance Carolina keeps up.
South Carolina hung around until late, but the Ole Miss offense took over as expected. Will Muschamp’s demise at Ole Miss resurrect Hugh Freeze in the SEC?