Kentucky comes to the Swamp this weekend in a season very different than any in recent memory.
There’s certainly the specter of COVID-19, which hangs over every game, including this one (Kentucky is down 18 players thus far due to injury and virus-related absences). But it’s also different than ones in recent memory because of how the Gators have evolved.
Absent a 2016 45-7 butt kicking led by Luke Del Rio (?), Florida vs. Kentucky has been really, really close.
There was the 14-9 win in 2015, before Will Grier was suspended or became Will Grier (!) against Tennessee. In 2015, a Will Grier-led Florida team jumped out to a 14-3 lead, only to have to hang on for a 14-9 win.
There was the 28-27 miracle win on the road when Kentucky chose not to guard Florida’s wide receivers multiple times for touchdowns and a missed field goal pushed back by a questionable holding call.
There was the breaking of the streak in 2018 when Kentucky ran for 303 yards and Terry Wilson torched Todd Grantham’s defense.
And of course, there was the 29-21 victory last season that was the real debut of Kyle Trask. If you were like me, you figured that game was over when Feleipe Franks went out. If you were like me, you were really surprised to see Trask instead of Emory Jones when Franks went down. And if you were like me, you immediately perked up when Trask started getting the ball out to open receivers accurately and on-time.
That Kentucky team finished the season 8-5, but its best wins were over Louisville and Virginia Tech, not exactly high-level SEC opponents.
It’s pretty much the same story this season. Kentucky comes into this game at 3-5, with wins over Mississippi State, Tennessee and Vanderbilt (by 3 points), but having lost to Auburn, Ole Miss, Missouri, Georgia and Alabama.
That might mean this is a close game, except this isn’t the same Gators team coming into this game. Sure, last year’s team had a better defense, but this year’s team is ranked eighth in the nation in yards per play gained.
Kentucky just saw an offense like this last week against Alabama….and gave up 63 points.
So do the Wildcats have a chance? Can Kyle Trask continue his march to a showdown with Mac Jones for the SEC and the Heisman? Let’s take a look.
Kentucky Offense vs. Florida Defense
Kentucky’s offense is ranked 101st in the country in yards per play gained. That normally would instill confidence in any opponent, except that Vanderbilt ranks 103rd and Florida struggled to shut down the Commodores at times.
Except Vanderbilt’s Ken Seals has clearly been getting better as the season has progressed and Vanderbilt is better at throwing the ball (82nd in yards per attempt) than running the ball (108th in yards per rush). Kentucky is the opposite, as the Wildcats rank 42nd in yards per rush but 120th in yards per pass.
That works right into what Florida wants the opponent to do. Ever since Kyree Campbell has come back, the Gators defensive line has improved considerably. You can’t say the same thing about their secondary, which is why if I’m Florida, I’d much rather play a team that wants to run the ball than one that wants to throw it
Of course, in 2018 when Kentucky ran all over the Gators, it wasn’t just the running backs. Sure, Benny Snell went for 175, but Kentucky QB Terry Wilson ran for 105 yards as well. It was those rushing yards that really killed Florida, as Wilson only threw for 151 yards, 54 of those yards coming on a pass to Lynn Bowden after Wilson escaped the pass rush.
Snell is gone to the NFL, but Wilson is back, coming back from a knee injury that knocked him out for the season in 2019. Wilson has been decent this season, but is only averaging 6.2 yards per attempt, well below average. He still can beat an opponent with his legs, averaging 4.6 yards per rush, up from his 4.1 yard average in 2018.
But surely Florida’s defense will end up making Wilson look better than he is, right? Well, kind-of.
Kentucky QB play vs. Opposing defense season rank (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
The chart above shows Wilson’s Yards above Replacement (YAR, my proprietary statistic for grading QBs) against each opponent versus the rank of those defenses in yards per play over the season. What you see if a pretty linear relationship between the quality of the defense and how Wilson has played.
The yellow line is the Florida defense. So if this trend were to hold, we would expect Wilson to play about average or maybe a little bit below. Average isn’t going to get the job done against this Florida offense.
But what about Florida’s defense. It makes average QB’s look great, right? Well, not really.
QB play against Florida vs. opposing offense rank. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
What this chart shows is the opposing QB’s YAR against the Gators vs. their season rankings in yards per play. There is obviously a lot of scatter in this chart, but you can see that the Florida defenses have fared really well – at least against the opposing QB – against teams that are average or worse on offense.
The problem has been that Florida has been torched by offenses that are competent. The four points above zero are Vanderbilt (I’m chalking that up to being flat), Ole Miss (Corral absolutely destroyed them), Arkansas (Franks hit deep throws) and Texas A&M (made Mond look like an All-Pro).
This really doesn’t bode well for the match-up with Alabama coming up in a few weeks, but with Kentucky coming in ranked 101st in offense, I suspect that Wilson is going to have a tough time getting too much going.
That doesn’t mean that Wilson won’t play well or that Kentucky won’t score any points. But it does mean that to keep up with the Florida offense, Wilson is going to have to play way beyond what the Florida defense has surrendered against teams with similar underlying statistics.
I can’t really give Florida an advantage against anybody on offense, but this is closer than most people think. If Wilson struggles again, Joey Gatewood has been really bad this season (3.1 yards per attempt). Plus, I think Florida has a burgeoning star on the defensive line (more on that to come soon) who is about to break out.
Advantage: Kentucky (slight)
Florida Offense vs. Kentucky Defense
So what happens if we do the same analysis when comparing the Florida offense and Kentucky defense? Well, that’s where the Gators have the clear advantage.
QB play against Kentucky vs. opposing offense rank. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
What you see in the chart is exactly what you would expect to see. Against poor defenses, Kentucky has played relatively well. The only outlier is the Wildcats also struggled against Vanderbilt (perhaps Ken Seals really is getting better?).
But the thing I’m taking note of here is that Kentucky has been absolutely torched by the three best offenses that they’ve faced: Auburn, Ole Miss and Alabama.
There’s no shame in giving up a ton of points to those teams, particularly Mississippi and Alabama. But the problem for Kentucky is that Florida’s offense is on par with both of those teams.
Kyle Trask’s play vs. Opposing defense season rank (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)
There are a lot of really impressive things about Kyle Trask’s 2020 performance, but this may be the most impressive one. He has yet to have an off-game. YAR measured QB performance where zero is average, 1.0 is really good (think Jake Fromm in 2018) and 2.0 is Heisman Trophy level.
Trask’s worst YAR this season is 1.62 against South Carolina while his best is 3.55 against Arkansas. His last three games have produced YAR’s of 3.21, 3.55 and 3.04, with a YAR of 2.54 against Missouri. As good as he was against Ole Miss, South Carolina and Texas A&M, he’s been on another level since the Gators came back from its COVID break.
So what we have is an elite offense with elite QB play on the Florida side, and a defense that basically plays to the level of the opposing QB.
That means that Kentucky can hang with Georgia because the Bulldogs steadfastly refused to play J.T. Daniels until they were out of the SEC East race or can beat Tennessee because Vols fans are more scared of Jarrett Guarantano than any of their opponents.
But this defense made Bo Nix look like a good QB (QB rating of 168.4 vs. 133.2 for the year). Same for Ken Seals (QB rating of 145.3 vs. 131.8 for the year). Mac Jones “only” averaged 9.6 yards per attempt last week, but Alabama didn’t need an elite performance from him as they were putting up 226 yards rushing (5.7 yards per attempt) in the 63-3 destruction.
Kyle Trask isn’t Stetson Bennett or Jarrett Guarantano. He’s way better than Ken Seals and Bo Nix. And I think there’s a debate to be had that he’s better than Mac Jones.
Advantage: Florida (big)
Takeaway
Florida is winning in a way that’s unfamiliar to Gators fans, having to rely solely on its offense.
That hasn’t happened since 2007, and obviously that Gators team slipped up a few times during that season. But as much as it might seem like heresy to say that this 2020 offense is better than the one piloted by eventual Heisman-winner Tim Tebow, I think the case can be made.
The defenses were remarkably similar. The 2007 team gave up 25.5 points per game, but gave up 28.0 points per game against SEC opponents. The 2020 Gators are giving up 28.1 points per game, against all SEC opponents, obviously.
Now look at the offenses. The 2007 team averaged 42.5 points per game, but that included 49 points against Western Kentucky and 59 against Troy. Limit the scope to just SEC opponents and that Gators team averaged 38.1 points per game. The 2020 squad is averaging 44.7.
But beyond that, Kyle Trask is averaging 10.38 yards per pass attempt, while Tebow “only” averaged 9.39. Yes, Tebow was a much larger threat in the running game (210 rushes for 895 yards), but this is exactly the reason that I came up with my YAR statistic, because otherwise it would be impossible to compare the two.
Back in 2007, an FBS quarterback averaged 7.05 yards per attempt, meaning that Tebow was 2.35 yards better than his contemporaries. In 2019 (I haven’t updated for 2020 yet), an FBS quarterback averaged 7.75 yards per attempt, meaning that Trask is “only” 2.63 yards better than his contemporaries.
But Tebow brings a lot of value on the ground too. He averaged 4.26 yards per rush, or 2.05 yards better than his contemporaries. Trask rarely runs, so even though he has only averaged 2.58 yards per rush, it doesn’t negatively impact his score that much.
The result is that the Yards above Replacement value for Trask thus far in 2020 is 2.56, while Tebow’s in 2007 was 2.25. Remember, these are normalized for the era that the QB played in, so this actually does adjust for the offensive spike we’ve seen in recent years.
None of this will help Florida beat Kentucky on Saturday, except that pointing it out should hopefully relay to Florida fans what they’re seeing. They aren’t just seeing a QB who is competing for the Heisman Trophy. They’re seeing a QB who’s on-track for the best season ever by a Gators QB.
And despite what Trask is saying about not wanting his fourth touchdown pass to the media this week, I don’t believe him for a second. I think he’ll show us this week.
Thoughts and prayers, Kentucky.
Gators (-25) win, 52-17.
Predictions this year: 6-1, 5-2 against the spread.
Don Parlamento
Nice job Will! Thanks
John Gibbons
Will;
Love the insights based on data points! It helps keep comparisons to apples to apples and as objective as a SEC football conversation can be!
The Gators have 3 games left to prepare for the Tide, which you are correct in saying does not bode well for this defense based on the eye test, as well as the data points. Can they get lined up correctly and remain disciplined in their assignments? Can they communicate more effectively, first from the sideline to the field then from one side of the field to another? Can we keep Wilson corralled in the pocket this year? Can we tackle in space? Hopefully, we will see another few degrees of improvement this week.
Offensively I think UK plays it like Missouri, bend but don’t break. They lost their nose guard who was a beast to injury a few weeks ago. You’re spot on the offense should roll this weekend. It will be interesting to see how CDM meshes Shorter, Grimes, Gamble, Toney, with Pitts return. Before Pitts was hurt it appeared Trask would target Pitts over the others, even if was double teamed because of his faith in Pitts to make a play. What Pitts injury did was force Trask to do what he does well see the entire field and deliver the ball to the open guy.
Can the Gators hang a century mark on the Cats and correspondingly hold them under 20? Go Gators?
Mark
“Kyle Trask isn’t Stetson Bennett or Jarrett Guarantano. He’s way better than Ken Seals and Bo Nix. And I think there’s a debate to be had that he’s better than Mac Jones.”
I disagree with the premise of this sentence. “There’s a debate to be had…” I don’t think there is any debate; I think Trask and Jones are in completely different hemispheres. Jones has better receivers and a MUCH better o-line (which translates to better pockets and a better running game). Trask has Pitts and Toney, but I’m not sure Copeland or Grimes would get much playing time at Alabama at all. Don’t get me started about Whittemore, Gamble. or Rick Wells. Honestly, Toney probably wouldn’t either because of his unpredictability, but he’s great so I’ll move past that one.
Trask has done more with less, and he passes the eye test much more than Jones. While Jones has had a fantastic year and he absolutely should be applauded for that, he is a product of his system. Trask has revolutionized his system. If you switched Trask and Jones, Alabama breaks every single Burrow/LSU record from last year and UF would be markedly worse. Jones is doing the same thing we just saw an Alabama QB do for the past few years, while Trask is doing things never before done at Florida.
If you’re talking about who should win the Heisman or who will win the championship, there is a debate to be had there. However, I think to claim that Mack Jones is as good of a quarterback as Trask (or Heaven-forbid a better one) is definitively wrong. Trask has not gotten his due, and I think Jones is benefiting from the Bama glow a little too much.
Gatormiami ( in AZ)
Right on, Mark. Good work Will.